The equity market continues to suffer several months of uncertainty. Predominantly, it’s because of the possibility of a Sino-U.S. trade war in the near term. President Trump recently said that he was “ready to go” on hitting China with an additional $267 billion worth of tariffs. The Trump administration is already finalizing plans to impose tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese products. If these measures are met with retaliatory actions by China, it could lead to a full-on trade conflict, one that could adversely affect global economies and eventually squeeze corporate profits.
Two thirds of Americans get at least some of their news on social media. Google and Facebook receive well over 70% of US digital advertising revenues. The average daily time spent on social media is 2 hours. Just a few factoids that have at least one thing in common: nothing like them was around 10 years ago, let alone 20. And they depict a change, or set of changes, in our world that will take a long time yet to understand and absorb. Some things just move too fast for us to keep track of, let alone process. Read More
That definition does not appear in any media outlet before the 1990s, and there has been no indication of who established it. It may be rooted in the experience of October 19, 1987, when the stock market dropped by just over 20% in a single day. Attempts to tie the term to the “Black Monday” story may have resulted in the 20% definition, which journalists and editors probably simply copied from one another.
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Key information about new issues of municipal bonds (including, among other things, the security pledged for repayment of the bonds, the terms of payment of interest and principal of the bonds, the tax-exempt status of the bonds, and material financial and operating information about the issuer of the bonds) typically is found in the issuer's official statement. Official statements generally are available at no charge from the Electronic Municipal Market Access system (EMMA) at http://emma.msrb.org operated by the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board (MSRB). For most municipal bonds issued in recent years, the issuer is also obligated to provide continuing disclosure to the marketplace, including annual financial information and notices of the occurrence of certain material events (including notices of defaults, rating downgrades, events of taxability, etc.). Continuing disclosures is available for free from the EMMA continuing disclosure service.
I’ve read all of Matt Kratter’s books. Why? I used the simple but powerful strategies in Covered Calls, Rubber Band Stocks, Monthly Cash Machine, and Rocket Stocks. The Options strategies realized an annual yield exceeding 12% coupled with Stock Equity strategies yielding an annualized 90%. I simply followed the strategies because I’m a novice, not the brightest bulb. These strategies were adequate for advancing stock markets but there are now signs of an approaching market in decline. The BEAR has been observed prowling so I read Matt’s newest selection Bear Market Trading Strategies. I’m now informed, ready for the declining markets and am enthused. Matt has again gifted his readers with his talent of deconstructing the complex so a rational novice may continue to conservatively place trades. He advises on how to avoid negative-carry and using Options cautiously, trading with the trend. Matt advises of the dangers and promotes rationality and caution. He tells you the best times to buy and sell using simple highest price/closing price indicators. Then Matt tells the reader how to determine when the Bear is returning to the den. He devotes a chapter on how to short momentum stocks using the simple 50 and 200 day moving averages and provides historical data as confirmation. Matt wraps up by providing a strategy of buying certain stocks that other investors are selling. There are strategies in this book that I would be uncomfortable with but there are other strategies that I am comfortable with. I’ll choose and carefully implement those comfortable strategies and, given my past profitable experiences with Matt’s books, I’ll make a few nickels. ...and be sure to view Matt's videos!
Bill Pawelec taught me the meaning and importance of predictive programming. As a result, I am going to reveal a partially redacted, but very relevant email from a member of my audience about the extreme relevance of predictive programming. And then I am going to allow the predictive words of my late friend, CIA contract agent and former Air Force Intel operative, Bill Pawelec, who revealed what is coming and I fear we will not have to wait very long this to happen.
The poll of 30 finance professionals on four continents showed a lack of consensus on the asset judged as most vulnerable now, with answers ranging from European high yield to local-currency emerging-market debt, though they were mostly in the bond world. Among 25 responding to a question on the next US recession, the median answer was the first half of 2019.
Despite persistent faith in the U.S. dollar and assurances that rate hikes will continue into 2019, gold has plenty of room to take back its losses and make new gains, reports an article on Newsmax. Barron’s contributor Andrew Bary notes that gold’s lower prices come at a time when global inflation is bound to go up as governments look to deal with mounting sovereign debt. Read More
As the stock markets continue setting records day after day, many investors are becoming more and more concerned about the potential over-valuation and a possible market correction. The widely-followed cyclically-adjusted price-earnings ratio (Shiller PE) reached 31.2, almost twice as much as the historical average of 16.8. While market valuation may not be a good timing indicator (see If Jeremy Grantham Has a Changing Heart on Value Investing, Should You?), does it have any impact on the severity of a bear market when it happens?
First, more NYSE stocks are bought on margin now than at any time since the 1950s, and Faber interprets this as a sign of overvaluation. Indeed, he finds that stock prices are "out of control," per Money, with the market P/E ratio nearly double its historical average. Once a selloff begins, Faber expects it to become an avalanche in which "asset holders will lose 50% of their assets [and] some people will lose everything," as Money quotes him.
Wild rumors spread of bear raids, of fabulous profits made by short-sellers, and of political conspiracies hatched by foreigners interested in bringing down the market, the dollar and the U.S. economy. In early 1932, the Philadelphia Public Ledger maintained that “European capitalists had supplied much of the cash needed to engineer the greatest bear raid in history. These proverbially open-handed and trusting gentleman had accepted the leadership of New York’s adroit Democratic financier, Bernard Baruch.” Baruch, the best known short-seller in the country, shrugged off the charge.
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Add another nail into our society. Education isn’t to raise the cultural level of society, it’s ONLY to get a job. SAD. I suppose Taco Bell and MacDonalds should make prep “colleges” for thier future employees. That way they can work their “education” off and not receive wages. My good God, look at how enslaved we are as a people, yet we still vote against our own benefit. Sad. My $20,000 credit card that was used to try and stay in a over-priced home, I walked from, but if it was used to educate me, I would be bound forever. Anyone see a problem here?
Three weeks ago when GDX was trading around $17.90 I wrote a post titled "Why I Bought Gold Miners Today" in which I presented the concept that the gold miners were potentially all "sold-out" and ripe for a rally. Since that day the GDX is up a little more than 3% but the price action has been far from convincing and GDX ran into stiff resistance just above $19 last week (double-top at $19.11 to be precise). However, when one considers the totality of the picture it becomes easier to discern a potential head & shoulders bottoming pattern, with the recent choppy and lackluster price action as part of a larger bottoming process: Read More
Gross is alarmed by a financial economy that is growing faster than the real economy, Money says. He's also concerned about huge debt loads, an aging population, the automation of labor and weak productivity growth in the real economy, Money adds. All these factors "promise to stunt U.S. and global growth far below historical norms," Gross believes, per Money. Right now, "All markets are increasingly at risk," as Money quotes from Gross' June Investment Outlook letter. (For more, see also: Bill Gross: QE is "Financial Methadone.")
Is the U.S. Government hiding a massive gold deposit in the Chocolate Mountains in California? Well, according to a few top-notch conspiracy theorists, the U.S. Congress passed the Desert Wilderness Protection Act that has cordoned off this vast gold discovery from the public. Unfortunately, we may never know if this mammoth gold deposit exists due to the clandestine nature of our government… or will we? Read More
I want you to understand this. This was no speedy drive by. This was a 16-hour trip, by two U.S. warships enforcing their right to travel international waters -- waters that China would obviously dispute the use of the word "international" as descriptive. The U.S. ships were shadowed by Chinese warships. This is cold war behavior. Been there, done that.
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/An Advanced Auction on the Sale of Stolen GoodsTomorrow is Election Day, or as H.L. Mencken once described the process, "An advanced auction on the sale of stolen goods". My wife has been bugging me for some time to urge people who listen to my podcast to go o ...…
ANSWER: The entire world has NEVER been on the gold standard simultaneously. Asia was on a silver standard while the West was on a gold standard. Above is the first coin struck in Hong Kong in 1866 which was the Hong Kong Dollar. The West struck Trade Dollars during the 19th century to pay for goods from Asia and they were silver – never gold. Here is an example of both the British and American trade dollars used in payments particularly with China. The Spanish 8 reals Americans called Pillar Dollars and slicing this up into pieces like a pie gave rise to the term for a Piece of Eight – 2 bits, 4 bits, 8 bits a dollar. Read More
United States Secretary of Treasury Steven Mnuchin has a sweet gig. He writes rubber checks to pay the nation’s bills. Yet, somehow, the rubber checks don’t bounce. Instead, like magic, they clear. How this all works, considering the nation’s technically insolvent, we don’t quite understand. But Mnuchin gets it. He knows exactly how full faith and credit works – and he knows plenty more. Read More
BTW, in this, the VA with its 0 downpayment loans has 1 (yep 1) REO, FHA with its 3 1/2% down had 1 (yep 1 REO), Freddie has 4 REOs and Fannie has 14. The other 50 or 60 REOs are the product of Wall St and securitization. Here it is NOT the government-backed 0 -3 1/2% down loans that are defaulting. Not is it the loans by the community banks – they have only 2 or 3 between the 3 -4 community banks here. What is defaulting are the loans written by the Big Banksters and sahdy otufits like OptionOne, Countrywide etc – most of which those lenders kept and a smaller number they peddled to Fannie/Freddie who are making them take them back.
That was the slogan used by then-presidential candidate Donald Trump and it propelled him to the most powerful and coveted job in the world – commander in chief of the United States. However, since Trump’s inauguration there has been much blustering and many unpopular policies that don’t seem to have been made with the promise of making America great again.
Smokey Bear is an American advertising icon created by the U.S. Forest Service with artist Albert Staehle, possibly in collaboration with writer and art critic Harold Rosenberg. In the longest-running public service advertising campaign in United States history, the Ad Council, the United States Forest Service (USFS), and the National Association of State Foresters (NASF) employ Smokey Bear to educate the public about the dangers of unplanned human-caused wildfires.
Erik: Now this massive, massive accumulation of debt in the United States – people like you and I can say this is crazy, the rate that it’s happening at – but, holy cow, look at China. I mean, they’re in a whole different category of rate of accumulation of national debt. It seems to me like they’re trying to almost race the United States to who can get more over-indebted faster.
So, all in all, I’d say that the technicals, the new tools to aggressively short large blocks of stocks on down-ticks, the uncertainties now of a trade war with China plus the seeming jump in the chances for a shooting war somewhere, all these things, are almost certain to bring a 20% decline, but it could quickly get out of hand and match what happened in 1987. That is the real danger.
Will we someday look back on October 2018 as the turning point? As the month began, people were generally feeling pretty good about things, and the U.S. stock market quickly set a new all-time high. But from that point on, the wheels fell off for Wall Street. We just witnessed the worst October for U.S. stocks since the financial crisis of 2008, and at this point more than 8 trillion dollars of global wealth has been completely wiped out. But it isn’t just the stock market that is being shaken. The horrific violence in Pittsburgh is just the latest in a string of events that have rattled the entire nation. Sometimes I feel like I am literally watching the fabric of our society come apart right in front of my eyes. It is almost as if there is a tangible presence of evil in the air, and it seems to be getting stronger over time. Read More
Mild diversification is the ticket to making money. Have some concentration in your best ideas and avoid the worst spots of the economy. As you know, I have been buying the First Trust ISE-Revere Natural Gas ETF FCG, +0.56% on what I believe is value pricing that will not last much more than a year or two. I have been selling most high P/E stocks and mutual funds with the word "growth" in the title as new clients bring them to me. I don't like anything that relies on a weak dollar to succeed since I believe the dollar is likely in a new higher trading range compared to a decade ago. I talk more about what I like and don't like in my recent free quarterly investor report.
With a discussion of the bond bear market comes many moving parts. David seeks to explain the concepts while utilizing the analogy of cutting an apple. An apple can be cut in many different ways, and each method uncovers a new way of looking at the apple and its pieces – in this case, interest rates. There are two main interest components that are discussed in this episode of Money For the Rest of Us: inflation expectations and real rates (i.e. your return after inflation.)