The drop below the support at $1220 in July was particularly damaging and led to additional liquidation and a capitulation spike down to $1160, despite an overwhelmingly bullish technical picture. The speculative positioning of Comex traders (COT) is usually a reliable contrarian indicator at turning points, and in fact the COT readings are at an extreme bullish level not seen since the beginning of gold’s last secular bull market in 2001. When it looks too good to be true, it usually is. Read More
One notable absentee from the list of major concerns cited in the survey was China, with just one investor highlighting the danger of a disruption in that country’s financial system. Atul Lele, chief investment officer at Nassau, Bahamas-based Deltec International Group, said the chance for excessive tightening by the Fed comes a close second to his China worry.
He remains confident stocks will see a fresh string of new highs in the final months of the year. Referring to history as a guide, Stovall noted that the fourth quarter is pretty strong during midterm election years, and seasonality points to more gains. He believes it will be easy for the S&P to grab another 80 points and break above 3,000 by year-end.
Every public pension fund in the country is catastrophically underfunded, especially if strict mark-to-market of the illiquid assets were applied. Illinois has been playing funding games for a few years to keep its pension fund solvent.  In Kentucky, where the public pension fund is on the verge of collapse, teachers are demanding a State bailout. Read More
A major difference between the current bear market and the long bear market of the 1970s is the economic environment. During the 1970s, the growth rate of productivity fell by nearly half, while inflation reached double-digits. These factors contributed significantly to the poor performance of the stock market during that period. However, during the current bear market, productivity has held up well, while inflation is not seen to be a significant threat in the near future. In hindsight, it is clear that the sharp decline in the stock market over the past two years was driven in large measure by excessive optimism in the value of high technology to the economy, at least in the near term. This zeal likely contributed to a period of overinvestment by businesses, particularly in the computer and telecommunications sectors, which suffered substantially in the last recession and have been slow to recover. However, the long-run benefits of technological innovation to the economy should be a positive factor for corporate equities, particularly if inflation remains low. If this proves to be true, households should begin to weight stocks more heavily in their asset holdings, making it unlikely that we will see a replay of the protracted bear market of the 1970s.

The bigger they come, the harder they fall.  Currently, we are in the terminal phase of an “everything bubble” which has had ten years to grow.  It is the biggest financial bubble that our country has ever seen, and experts are warning that when it finally bursts we will experience an economic downturn that is even worse than the Great Depression of the 1930s.  Of course many of us in the alternative media have been warning about what is coming for quite some time, but now even many in the mainstream media have jumped on the bandwagon. Read More
If the market keeps marching higher, despite all of these warnings signs that valuations are stretched and market sentiment is too bullish, what’s in it for the short seller? In the short term, it’s painful to have hedges on, as they detract from performance. We very much live in a “show me now” world where very few think and plan for the long term.
Warren Buffett’s favorite indicator is telling us that stocks are more overvalued right now than they have ever been before in American history.  That doesn’t mean that a stock market crash is imminent.  In fact, this indicator has been in the “danger zone” for quite some time.  But what it does tell us is that stock valuations are more bloated than we have ever seen and that a stock market crash would make perfect sense.  So precisely what is the “Buffett Indicator”?  Well, it is actually very simple to calculate.  You just take the total market value of all stocks and divide it by the gross domestic product. Read More
Jeffrey is a truly independent thinker who is never afraid to make bold, out-of-consensus calls. That’s why I know when he takes the stage at the SIC, he will provide insight into much more than the secular bond bull market. I’m really excited to welcome Jeffrey back to the SIC, and I hope you can be there with me to experience it, first-hand. If you would like to learn more about attending the SIC 2018, and about the other speakers who will be there, you can do so here.
Dr. D: Well, all parts of the system rely on accurate record-keeping. Look at voting rights: we had a security company where 20% more people voted than there were shares. Think you could direct corporate, even national power that way? Without records of transfer, how do you know you own it? Morgan transferred a stock to Schwab but forgot to clear it. Doesn’t that mean it’s listed in both Morgan and Schwab? In fact, didn’t you just double-count and double-value that share? Suppose you fail to clear just a few each day. Before long, compounding the double ownership leads to pension funds owning 2% fake shares, then 5%, then 10%, until stock market and the national value itself becomes unreal. And how would you unwind it?  Read More

In addition, during World War II, the Empire of Japan considered wildfires as a possible weapon. During the spring of 1942, Japanese submarines surfaced near the coast of Santa Barbara, California, and fired shells that exploded on an oil field, very close to the Los Padres National Forest. U.S. planners hoped that if Americans knew how wildfires would harm the war effort, they would work with the Forest Service to eliminate the threat.[7][16] The Japanese military renewed their wildfire strategy late in the war: from November 1944 to April 1945, launching some 9,000 fire balloons into the jet stream, with an estimated 11% reaching the U.S.[23] In the end the balloon bombs caused a total of six fatalities: five school children and their teacher, Elsie Mitchell, who were killed by one of the bombs near Bly, Oregon, on May 5, 1945.[24] A memorial was erected at what today is called the Mitchell Recreation Area.
The “Title I” designation as a foreign agent applied retroactively to any action taken by Mr. Page, and auto-generates an exponential list of other people he came in contact with.  Each of those people, groups or organizations could now have their communication reviewed, unmasked and analyzed by the DOJ/FBI with the same surveillance authority granted upon the target, Mr. Page.
Exactly as publicly predicted by myself and Alex Jones, the anti-American globalists are now running pipe bombs false flags against CNN. This is not merely similar to what we publicly predicted would take place before the mid-term elections; it is exactly what we publicly predicted would take place. We even named CNN as the most likely target to be selected by the globalist operatives running the operation. Read More
MOPE has failed and the world is about to implode economically and socially because of it. Your question to all of us has been when will all this happen. The answer is now. The means to this occurrence is accelerating uncontrollable volatility in the world fiat currency markets. The rise in the dollar here and now is due to Richard Russell’s thesis of the synthetic dollar short. This can be easily understood by remembering that the currency you borrow will fluctuate. If that movement is up, then you are at a loss considering where it was trading when your borrowed it. Read More
My business is to constantly look for new stocks by running stock screens, endlessly reading (blogs, research, magazines, newspapers), looking at the holdings of respected investors, talking to a large network of investment professionals, attending conferences, scouring through ideas published on value investor networks, and finally, scouring a large (and growing) watch list of companies to buy at a significant margin of safety.
The chart formation built in the course of the early February sell-off and subsequent rebound continues to look ominous, so we are closely watching the proceedings. There are now numerous new divergences in place that clearly represent a major warning signal for the stock market. For example, here is a chart comparing the SPX to the NDX (Nasdaq 100 Index) and the broad-based NYA (NYSE Composite Index). Read More

Niall Ferguson is a senior fellow at Stanford University, and a senior fellow of the Center for European Studies at Harvard, where he served for twelve years as a professor of history. Niall is one of the finest economic historians on the planet; but he isn’t only an academic. What many people don’t know is that he works with a small group of elite hedge fund managers and executives as the managing director of macroeconomic and geopolitical advisory firm, Greenmantle.
Two weeks after we reported that GE had found itself locked out of the commercial paper market following downgrades that made it ineligible for most money market investors, the pain has continued, and yesterday General Electric lost just over $5bn in market capitalization. While far less than the $49bn wiped out from AAPL the same day, it was arguably the bigger headline grabber.

321gold founder Bob Moriarty has been calling for a broader market crash to occur in October for the last few months. With the turmoil we’ve seen across global markets in the last couple of weeks it looks like Bob’s prognostication is playing out according to script. Energy & Gold caught up with Bob Moriarty at the end of last week to discuss topics ranging from gold & silver mining shares to what’s going on with Novo Resources to the Saudi assassination of Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul. Without further ado here is Energy & Gold’s October 2018 conversation with Bob Moriarty… Read More
Major international comparisons have long concluded that Americans’ ability to effectively utilize mathematics is inadequate. Such conclusions divide students, parents, teachers and administrators into camps that share little more than blaming others for the problems. However, it is unclear whether all the finger-pointing indicates a real desire to overcome our innumeracy. In fact, we systematically misuse numbers to distort reality because we want to fool ourselves, making our ineptitude no surprise.
Your correct. Lump into the mix of policies coming out of Sacramento and DC. RE in California is in for another leg down starting this summer. Problem will be even worse if QE is halted by the Fed. Any upward trend in home prices may start happening in the 2015-2020 time frame. The toxic sludge that was the no mortgage down to minimal down is still in the system. As long as that is the case, kiss any correction goodbye.
If you’re doing well right now, what else really matters? The stock market seems to be on a bizarro perpetual escalator to neverending prosperity, despite rafts of economic fundamentals that paint a portrait of debt-bloated, weak economy, oceans of free debt have been available for years on end to fund lifestyles well beyond earned means, and so long as one has sufficient exposure to risk assets, why bother worrying about big-picture insolvencies that are still years away? Read More
The biggest of all BIGGER story aspects to the HPSCI Memo, in all coverage, has been overlooked by all Main Stream Media.  The Department of Justice FBI FISA request was for “Title I” surveillance authority.  This is not some innocuous request for metadata exploration – the FBI said American citizen Carter Page was a “foreign agent of a hostile foreign government”; the FBI was calling Carter Page a spy.

Still, bear market rallies may seem as if they are a rising bull market, but until the market shows gains of 20% from the bear market low, it can't be considered a bull market. And, while bear markets occur during the contraction phase of the business cycle, bull markets typically happen when the business cycle is expanding (shown by several indicators, like lower inflation and increased employment, among others). 
4. I don’t know whether G. Shilling is right or not on deflation. I think he is right on the economic slowdown, but not necessarily on the inflation piece (can have slowdown AND inflation). But, I’ll give it the following probabilities: 20% chance of another decade or so of Japan-like deflation; 80% chance of sustained, lasting inflation for decades (sustained bouts of stagflation).
The United States is effectively bankrupt, but that doesn’t matter to the GOP. Once evangelists of fiscal responsibility and scourges of deficit spending, Republicans today glory in spilling red ink. The national debt is now $20.6 trillion, greater than the annual GDP of about $19.5 trillion. Alas, with Republicans at the helm, deficits are set to continue racing upwards, apparently without end. Read More
After a period of excellent returns since 2008, Gilts will no longer be a profitable investment and those investors that ventured into Gilts as a way of increasing income from cash could get a nasty surprise when they realise how sensitive Gilt prices are to changes in yield.  With the 10 year yield at just 1.3% compared to an inflation rate of 3.1%, those investors are already suffering a loss in real terms.  But if we get an adjustment back to a positive real yield, the capital loss will be extremely damaging to prices.  For long dated securities, losses could be in excess of 20% for a movement in yield of just 1% and that would be just the start of the adjustment.  That recovery period could stretch into years.

Leuthold Group chief investment strategist and economist Jim Paulsen was cautious about stocks ahead of the January-February rout. And he remained steadfastly cautious in front of the recent sell-off. He’s made a lot of good market calls like these in the 20-plus years I’ve tracked his work and known him. Now in the current weakness, he’s turning more bullish on stocks.

A market correction is a period in which stock prices drop following a period of higher prices. The idea behind a correction is that because prices rose higher than they should've, falling prices serve the purpose of "correcting" the situation. One major difference between a bear market and a market correction is the extent to which prices fall. Bear markets occur when stock prices drop 20% or more, whereas corrections typically involve price drops around 10%. Furthermore, market corrections tend to last less than two months, whereas bear markets last two months or longer.
orso - porcospino - tollerare - tricheco - orsa - portare - accettare - basti pensare che ... - basto - Buon viso a cattivo gioco - croce - dare i suoi frutti - dente avvelenato - esserne una testimonianza - farci il callo - farne le spese - fruttare - fruttificare - germinare - ghiottone - koala - legarsela al dito - orsacchiotto - orsetto - persecuzione - poggiare - prendere in considerazione - recare - reggere - risentire - sopportare - sostenere - tagliola - tenere a mente - testimoniare - troglodita
Assuming that the decline from the January-2018 peak is a short-term correction that will run its course before the end March (my assumption since the correction’s beginning in late-January), the recent price action probably is akin to what happened in February-March of 2007. In late-February of 2007 the SPX had been grinding its way upward in relentless fashion for many months. Read More
In their latest report on commodity prices, French bank Natixis outlined why precious metals have a strong couple of years ahead of them as the U.S. economy slows. According to an article on Kitco, the report states that after a remarkable year, the dollar will finally begin to trend lower as the Fed puts the brakes on its tightening cycle. Read More

Hard science, like physics, has rules you can’t break. The law of gravity makes for very specific physical behavior that can be mathematically modeled. Economists want us to believe that their own models are as reliable as the law of gravity. But the real world is a complex, dynamic, out-of-balance mess that doesn’t fit inside anyone’s model. You can’t model a system that is as chaotic and unpredictable as an economy in an Excel spreadsheet or even in the latest and greatest statistical software.


Here’s a scarier thought: At least 10 of the 11 FISA judges were appointed by OVomit. Recall, if you will, the forum shopping that is done in all of the cases against Pres. Trump for something he did or something he didn’t do. The FISA judge(s) may be as activist as the 9th Circuit, so they wouldn’t be concerned at all about the veracity of the pleadings he/she was looking at behind the FISA application. Remember Judge Boasberg, saw nothing wrong with ruling that the Comey memos could not be released to Judicial Watch, et al., even though some have already been leaked “because [the release] might prematurely reveal . . . the nature, scope, direction and focus of its investigations” involving Russia’s interference in the 2016 election”…in other words they’re being used by Mueller in his witch hunt. What I’m saying is THE FISA COURT, the secret court charged with authority to breach any American citizen’s 4th Amendment rights based on no witnesses, just documents, grant FISA approvals based on that documentation that shows probable cause based on the veracity of these documents. So here’s another “the fix is in” to ruin candidate Trump, president-elect Trump & President Trump & this time it is 1 or more OVomit-appointed FISA judges. Another clue: Where the H**ll is the ACLU?
Build America Bonds are a taxable municipal bond created under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 that carry special tax credits and federal subsidies for either the bond holder or the bond issuer. Many issuers have taken advantage of the Build America Bond provision to secure financing at a lower cost than issuing traditional tax-exempt bonds. The Build America Bond provision, which expired on January 1, 2011, was open to governmental agencies issuing bonds to fund capital expenditures.[9][10][11]
Our US Regime Model, a quantitative framework for stock-picking, suggests we are in the mid to late stages of the market cycle and in this stage, momentum is the best way to invest. As contrarian value investors, this is not an easy call to make. But if this bull market is closer to over, our analysis of factor returns indicates that late-stage bull markets have been dominated by stocks with strong price momentum and growth, while value, analyst neglect, and dividend yield have been the worst-performing factors.
Given how these things normally work, I’d imagine there will be a few false scares and then a tipping point at which there’s an identifiable panic. I would think that would be caused either by a few significant inflation surprises, or something more dramatic that I haven’t thought of (perhaps a big buyer of US Treasuries really does turn around and do something unexpected).
The question often arises in liberty movement circles as to how we get to the point of full blown tyranny within a society.  There are numerous factors that determine this outcome, but through all the various totalitarian systems in history there are common denominators – elements that must be there for tyrants to prevail.  When we can identify these common elements in an objective manner, we make it far more difficult for despotic structures to stand.
When the U.S. economy began to move forward once again, municipal debt continued its momentum, which was maintained well into the early part of the twentieth century. The Great Depression of the 1930s halted growth, although defaults were not as severe as in the 1870s.[7] Leading up to World War II, many American resources were devoted to the military, and prewar municipal debt burst into a new period of rapid growth for an ever-increasing variety of uses. Today, in addition to the 50 states and their local governments (including cities, counties, villages and school districts), the District of Columbia and U.S. territories and possessions (American Samoa, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, and the U.S. virgin Islands) can and do issue municipal bonds. Another important category of municipal bond issuers which includes authorities and special districts has also grown in number and variety in recent years. The two most prominent early authorities were the Port of New York Authority, formed in 1921 and renamed Port Authority of New York and New Jersey in 1972, and the Triborough Bridge Authority (now the Triborough Bridge and Tunnel Authority), formed in 1933. The debt issues of these two authorities are exempt from federal, state and local governments taxes.[8]
Your correct. Lump into the mix of policies coming out of Sacramento and DC. RE in California is in for another leg down starting this summer. Problem will be even worse if QE is halted by the Fed. Any upward trend in home prices may start happening in the 2015-2020 time frame. The toxic sludge that was the no mortgage down to minimal down is still in the system. As long as that is the case, kiss any correction goodbye.
One of the primary reasons municipal bonds are considered separately from other types of bonds is their special ability to provide tax-exempt income. Interest paid by the issuer to bond holders is often exempt from gross income for federal income tax purposes, as well as state or local taxes depending on the state in which the issuer is located, subject to certain restrictions. Bonds issued for certain purposes are subject to the alternative minimum tax as an item of tax preference.[1]

"Naturally, the smooth termination of the gold-exchange standard, the restoration of the gold standard, and supplemental and interim measures that might be called for, in particular with a view to organizing international credit on this new basis, will have to be deliberately agreed upon between countries, in particular those on which there devolves special responsibility by virtue of their economic and financial capabilities." - General Charles de Gaulle
So, all in all, I’d say that the technicals, the new tools to aggressively short large blocks of stocks on down-ticks, the uncertainties now of a trade war with China plus the seeming jump in the chances for a shooting war somewhere, all these things, are almost certain to bring a 20% decline, but it could quickly get out of hand and match what happened in 1987. That is the real danger.

The 5 percent down is not all that risky for fund investors because the quality of the borrowers is high and the fact that the Freedom Note would pay down to $294,557 by only the third year; while with the Slave Note, your balance is $654,809 by the third year. So with the Slave Note, after 3 years your balance has reduced by $45,190 or 6 percent while with the Freedom Note, even though the rate is over twice the Slave Note, it reduces its balance by $44,233 or 13% – yes 13 percent!
Last week, yields on the German 10-year Bund and 10-year U.S. Treasury notes hit record highs for 2015, rising 85 basis points and 72 basis points, respectively, since their lows this year. Rather than trying to deter the selloff, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi fanned the flames on June 3, saying that European bond investors should expect greater volatility amid a stronger economic outlook and higher inflation expectations. Credit Suisse equities analysts take things a step further, forecasting that bonds are entering a multi-year bear market.
×