In my News and Views from the Nefarium last Thursday (Jan 11th), I prefaced my remarks about the Franco-Chinese summit by pointing out that these past two weeks have seen some strange stories, stories suggesting that while the war between the great powers for hegemony may not have gone hot, it's at least much warmer than before. For example, in the space of a few days, we've seen (1) the US launch, and as quickly lose, a classified space satellite; (2) ships colliding in the Aegean Sea and in the Persian Gulf, and (3) Russia shoot down over a dozen drones which it claims "Syrian militants" shot at Russian bases. Read More
This week’s collapse of the Turkish lira has dominated the headlines, and it is widely reported that this and other emerging market currencies are in trouble because of the withdrawal of dollar liquidity. There are huge quantities of footloose dollars betting against these weak currencies, as well as commodities and gold, on the basis the long-expected squeeze on dollar liquidity is finally upon us. 

My hope is that President Trump will read Knowledge and Power and give a copy to all cabinet members—as Ronald Reagan did with Wealth and Poverty. Maybe I’m too optimistic, but if we began basing economic and monetary policy on George’s information theory of economics, I believe there would be a complete revitalization of the American entrepreneurial spirit.
Are the metals markets ending a price correction in unison and preparing for a massive price advance? This is the question we asked our research team to investigate and their findings may help skilled traders identify great opportunities in the future. This multi-part research article will share our most recent opinion about the metals markets as well as share some critical new data that can shed some light into what we believe will become a massive upside price rally in the metals markets. Let's get into the data. Read More
The watchdog found that "valuations are also elevated" in bond markets. Of particular interest is the OFR's discussion on duration. Picking up where we left off in June 2016, and calculates that "at current duration levels, a 1 percentage point increase in interest rates would lead to a decline of almost $1.2 trillion in the securities underlying the index."
Tensions are incredibly high in the United States right now. I realized that over the past three years, I’ve written that they’re “at an all-time high” far too many times. So, I’ll just say, they’re high enough that all hell could break loose at any moment given the right (wrong) application of fuel to the flame. The number one thing you can do for this situation to keep your family safe is to be prepared for lockdown.
I’m not sure if the Liberal International Order will end in war, but the current state of affairs can’t last much longer. Globalization has jumped the shark, and as a result, we are seeing a powerful backlash from those who have been hurt by it. There is no way to predict how this situation will unfold. But I know that I want to be the first to hear about any developments, because they have serious implications for financial markets and the societies we live in.
As the presstitutes are aligned with the military/security complex, Hillary and the DNC, and the liberal/progressive/left, the Russiagate orchestration is a powerful conspiracy against the president of the United States and the “deplorables” who elected him. Nevertheless, the Russiagate Conspiracy has fallen apart and has now been turned against its originators. Read More
Sorry this is all over the place, but there are multiple converging streams here. And as DHB constantly reminds us, there is absolutely no reason to believe that in an economy built on gambling, scamming, and computer automated profit skimming, ANYTHING is going to accrue bubble-type benefits to just you and me, anytime soon. Least of all your house.
There is perhaps no better illustration of the deep decay of the American political system than the Senate race in New Jersey. Sen. Bob Menendez, running for re-election, was censured by the Senate Ethics Committee for accepting bribes from the Florida businessman Salomon Melgen, who was convicted in 2017 of defrauding Medicare of $73 million. The senator had flown to the Dominican Republic with Melgen on the physician’s private jet and stayed in his private villa, where the men cavorted with young Dominican women who allegedly were prostitutes. Menendez performed numerous political favors for Melgen, including helping some of the Dominican women acquire visas to the United States. Menendez was indicted in a federal corruption trial but escaped sentencing because of a hung jury. Read More

7. The low interest rates that I can actually obtain right now will not be around much longer. With inflation and growing lack of confidence in US, interest rates will rise. This assumes the 80% scenario of inflation. It is possible Gary is right and we stay in low interest environment for a couple more years, but it is still likely to go up, along with inflation, at some point in the not too distant future.


Feb. 5, 2018 10:57 AM ET| Includes: BXUB, BXUC, CRF, DDM, DIA, DOG, DXD, EEH, EPS, EQL, FEX, FWDD, HUSV, IVV, IWL, IWM, JHML, JKD, OTPIX, PPLC, PPSC, PSQ, QID-OLD, QLD, QQEW, QQQ, QQQE, QQXT, RSP, RWL-OLD, RWM, RYARX, RYRSX, SBUS, SCAP, SCHX, SDOW, SDS, SFLA, SH, SMLL, SPDN, SPLX, SPUU, SPXE, SPXL, SPXN, SPXS, SPXT, SPXU-OLD, SPXV, SPY, SQQQ, SRTY, SSO, SYE, TALL, TNA, TQQQ, TWM, TZA, UDOW, UDPIX, UPRO, URTY, USA, USSD, USWD, UWM, VFINX, VOO, VTWO, VV, ZLRG

[A] new economics—the information theory of capitalism—is already at work. Concealed behind an elaborate apparatus, the theory drives the most powerful machines and networks of the era. Information theory treats human creations as transmissions through a channel—whether a wire or the world—in the face of noise, and gauges the outcomes by their surprise. Now it is ready to transform economics as it has already transformed the world.


*** Reviewing yet another of the government’s attempts to revive the economy, Christopher Byron writes (in MSNBC): “…the stimulus being proposed – roughly $100 billion at last tally – is utterly trivial when measured against the collapsed stock values in the tech sector. [It] doesn’t even offset the $450 billion in lost value in a single company – Cisco Systems, Inc.”
Niall last spoke at my conference two years ago. He was bullish on the global economy at a time when almost everybody—including me—was bearish. I really don’t know what Niall is thinking about right now, or what new insights he has in store for SIC attendees. I am truly excited to welcome him back and I hope you can be there with me to experience it, first-hand. If you would like to learn more about attending the SIC 2018, and about the other speakers who will be there, you can do so here.
Appeal Case: “I was not sure where to find help until I found your financial aid appeal page. Your service is exceptional, and that is rare these days. Just one of your strategies saved us over $8,000. I have told many people about what you are doing to help us, and I intend to tell everyone that I meet. Most of my acquaintances also have children in college. Thank you.”  –Sherry H. Maryland [ Appeal Award $29,000]
"We expect both a deterioration in earnings quality and a peak in organic growth in 2018," Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's chief US equity strategist, wrote in a client note. "The bear market in valuations has already begun and supports our overall view that the next cyclical bear market in US equities may have already begun, but is being masked by an index price level that has fallen only 12% thanks to the adrenaline shot to EPS from tax."
Tensions are incredibly high in the United States right now. I realized that over the past three years, I’ve written that they’re “at an all-time high” far too many times. So, I’ll just say, they’re high enough that all hell could break loose at any moment given the right (wrong) application of fuel to the flame. The number one thing you can do for this situation to keep your family safe is to be prepared for lockdown.
The level of panic that we witnessed on Wall Street on Wednesday was breathtaking.  After a promising start to the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average started plunging, and at the close it was down another 608 points.  Since peaking at 26,951.81 on October 3rd, the Dow has now fallen 2,368 points, and all of the gains for 2018 have been completely wiped out.  But things are even worse when we look at the Nasdaq.  The percentage decline for the Nasdaq almost doubled the Dow’s stunning plunge on Wednesday, and it has now officially entered correction territory.  To say that it was a “bloodbath” for tech stocks on Wednesday would be a major understatement. Read More
I’m in the inflation camp. I think it’s coming. I have thought this for a while. People have looked all over for it as if looking for a lost sock or a hairpin: Where did it go? Where is that thing? But I do believe that the central bankers who have been kind of begging for inflation will be surprised at the generosity of the inflation gods over what they will ultimately be handed.
We are nearly a year into Donald Trump’s presidency, and the economic numbers continue to look quite good.  On Monday, we learned that U.S. retail sales during the holiday season are projected to be way up compared to 2016.  Yes, there are all sorts of economic red flags popping up all over the place, and I write about them regularly.  And without a doubt, 2017 has been one of the worst years for brick and mortar retail stores in a very long time.  But when something good happens we should acknowledge that too, and many are giving President Trump credit for the fact that retail sales are projected to be up 4.9 percent this holiday season compared to last year... Read More
Indeed, in today's fraught environment it can be well and truly said that the chartmonkeys have become deaf, dumb and blind to everything happening on Planet Earth external to the gaming tables where they slosh around in their cups. After all, to use the latest evidence, what could be more indicative of a political system fixing to implode than this weekend's utterly phony and disgustingly undeserved deification of the late Senator John McCain? Read More

Led by the S&P, the next move in global equities is a black-hole plunge. Rather than protect long portfolios with Puts, why not liquidate them entirely? The Fed's stimulatory hand is played-out, & the impending Crash will strike with such force that the Silver Bullet from the past will no longer suffice to resuscitate the market. Since the market forecasts the economy more accurately than any economist, this time it's we, who must bite the Silver Bullet. Genuine Bull Markets reflect economic expansion by sub-dividing into 5-waves; Bear Market Rallies, like the Roaring Twenties, and Bernanke's megalomaniac Put are illusory, 3-wave upsides within larger Bear Markets. Only a 5-wave Crash is final. Artificial stimulus is an illicit drug, for which the Fed is the Global Pusher . Rather than more ?hair of the dog?, addicted economies can only heal via cold turkey abstinence. In return for numbing the pain of economic contraction, we have prevented healing the addiction, to dramatically aggravating the economy's ability to heal. By distorting economic incentives to divert capital away from the most worthy ventures, stimulus has exacerbated excess to perpetuate illusory Bubbles. The price of stimulus is a far more austere & enduring Depression, required to wring-out the excess via a rapid, downward GDP spiral to back-out stimulus in its entirety. Once the dollar collapse gains momentum to become universally recognized, the massive exodus out of the Dollar-denominated assets will force interest rates to skyrocket, to balloon the national debt out of control. As documented by Rogoff and Reinhart documented, This Time is NEVER different - eight centuries of financial Folly -a US default of its foreign debt is inevitable. Just as the 1929 withdrawal of US gold reserves from Germany intensified bitter depression, a debased dollar will kill the US ability to borrow on international markets, to topple the American Empire


I remember when America was a free country. You could get on an airliner without an ID. Driving licenses didn’t even have photos. If a friend was coming through your city on a flight and had a few hours layover, you could meet them inside the airport for lunch or dinner. You could meet friends, children, and relatives at the gate or see them off at the gate. Parents could actually put children on the plane and grandparents could take them off.
Ten-year Treasury yields jumped 13 bps this week to 2.48%, the high going back to March. German bund yields rose 12 bps to 0.42%. U.S. equities have been reveling in tax reform exuberance. Bonds not so much. With unemployment at an almost 17-year low 4.1%, bond investors have so far retained incredible faith in global central bankers and the disinflation thesis.
Unlike the last credit crisis when the dollar rose sharply in a general panic for safety, on the next crisis, the dollar is likely to fall substantially. The reason is that foreign ownership of dollar investments (typically in US Treasuries) appears greatly overextended, and an additional $4 trillion of liquidity is in the wrong (non-US) hands. This is likely to be unloaded during a general credit crisis, driving the dollar lower. Read More
The 2000-02 bear market environment was similar. In short, a decent market bounce was overdue but it’s too early to write off the bears. Rough start not a bad omen Prior to last week’s bounce, there was much gnashing of teeth regarding how stocks had endured one of their worst starts to a year. Investors are still scarred by 2008, when early declines proved a foretaste of further bloodletting. But, an early-year bruising is not an inherently ominous affair, says an LPL Financial note. It found 19 cases where stocks endured heavy losses during the first six weeks of the year; on average, stocks returned 5.3 per cent over the remainder of the year, with positive returns ensuing in 58 per cent of occasions. In fact, 2008 is an exceptional case: over the last 40 years, it was the only time where a rough beginning to a year was followed by double-digit losses. There continues to be much chatter about 2016 being 2008 redux but a “sizable drop from here for the rest of the year”, says LPL, “would be extremely rare”.
Now think about it. The best borrowers are the ones who are solvent and haven’t defaulted regardless of their submergence and can’t get a short sale approved because they are financially solvent – they were just unfortunate enough to get caught up in the false market created by the banksters. They are the victims of a false market contrived by the banksters by mislabeling sub-junk loans as AAA and sticking them in low risk investment funds around the world. Why would you want to reward them for their fraud by being their slave?
Such behavior is rare, however. To illustrate, consider the several hundred stock market timers monitored by my Hulbert Financial Digest. These are professionals, needless to say, rather than amateurs like the rest of us. It’s their job to identify market tops and bottoms, which is yet another way of saying that they will be more heavily exposed to equities at those bottoms than at tops.
Early on, people who knew a lot about FISA pointed out that the FBI’s investigation of “russia collusion” was not a criminal investigation but a counterintelligence investigation. I guess the rules for each type are different. For example, in a counterintelligence investigation the goal could be to identify all of the members of a given spy network etc. So, perhaps Page was simply their Trojan Horse / excuse to spy on many many people.
RATE AND REVIEW This Podcasthttps://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/the-peter-schiff-show-podcast/id404963432?mt=2&ls=1Alex Jones BannedAlex Jones was banned from iTunes, Facebook, YouTube - his entire YouTube Channel is gone! He had over a million subscribers. The Alex Jones videos on my YouTube channel where I appeared as a guest are still up, bu ...…

4. The new car sales cycle has probably peaked and will head much lower in coming years. The auto industry accounts for about 2.9% of GDP and directly employs 1.7 million people with many more jobs supported indirectly. A slump in the auto industry will become a drag on overall economic growth in the U.S. The subprime auto loan default rate is rising to near the high levels caused by the financial crisis and will probably go much higher.


The reason there are no prescription medications available today where the side effects aren’t worse than the ailment being treated is because Big Pharma will not treat or heal anything without creating several new issues that keep their “customers for life” coming back for more. Most Americans do not want to stop eating junk food, fast food, corporate franchise restaurant food, microwaveable food, prepared food bar “stuff,” and “diet” food that’s mostly chock full of synthetic sweeteners, GMOs and MSG. Read More

Department of Education 2017-2018 FAFSA changes provided the reinterpretation of the definition of homeless youth. For students older than 21 and younger than 24 who are unaccompanied and homeless or self-supporting, and at risk of being homeless qualify as independent students. This group can now self-qualify on the FAFSA (no need for Financial Aid Administrator approval).
Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Federal Home Loan Banks Federal Housing Administration Federal Housing Finance Agency Federal Housing Finance Board Federal Reserve System Government National Mortgage Association Irish Bank Resolution Corporation National Asset Management Agency Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight Office of Financial Stability UK Financial Investments
I’m chronically, sometimes profitably, but certainly very nearly continuously, well-disposed to the legacy monetary asset. I think that so many arrows point to it in the present day. I think it will become the beneficiary of – I’m talking about gold now – gold will become the beneficiary of so many trends. From the tinkering and the unprecedented experimentation of our central bankers’ fiscal profligacy – I’m starting to sound moralistic –
×