Now, entrepreneurial creativity and innovations are not going to make it into any models that economists can concoct. Because we simply do not have the tools to model that kind of complexity. Let’s dive into George’s theory of “an economics of disorder and surprise that could measure the contributions of entrepreneurs,” and extrapolate out what it means for us.
With the U.S. stock market going through a volatile phase, investing in big-brand companies seems judicious. These stocks will offer some respite as they boast stable cash flows. Needless to say, the value of brands is that they instantly convey information on quality, durability and consistency to consumers. These traits help stocks counter market gyrations. And if the market pulls itself up in the near term, such companies will make the most of the positive trend as their products and services are widely accepted.

The SEC crackdown on ICOs has, apparently, finally extended to one of the industry's most enthusiastic and prolific promoters: former software security pioneer John McAfee, who has earned a reputation for outrageous behavior (including promising in July 2017 to eat his dick on national television if bitcoin doesn't hit $500,000 in three years) in recent years.
This chart does a simple comparison of Osaka condo and Tokyo condo prices which does not reflect the entirety of the Japanese housing market.  Yet the path seems very similar.  Large areas with a real estate frenzy that hit high peaks and have struggled ever since.  In fact, if we look at nationwide prices we realize that Japan has seen a 20 year bear market in real estate:
Misguided Tweet About PfizerAnother misguided tweet that came out today from the President had to do with drugs:Pfizer & others should be ashamed that they have raised drug prices for no reason. They are merely taking advantage of the poor & others unable to defend themselves, while at the same time giving bargain basement prices to other count ...…
In the current issue of Grant’s we have in the headline of the front pages today “Xi Jinping’s Poisoned Chalice.” This is the Xi Jinping (whose name I think I am butchering in pronunciation) is of course the new president for life. And our sense is that one-term presidencies in China are better than two terms, and that better than either would be emigration. So we think that Xi Jinping is the president for life in the wrong country.
I’ve been asked to comment on the most recent market decline. My initial reaction was, markets go up and they go down. America is a great country but the US Constitution doesn’t guarantee always-rising markets. I sat down and I wanted to write a reassuring message. I wanted to express my empathy. Somehow, I found that my reservoir of empathy was empty: After recent decline the market is still up twenty-something percent from the beginning of 2017.
Bear markets cost investors money because security prices generally fall across the board. But bear markets don't last forever, and they don't always give advance notice of their arrival. The investor must know when to buy and when to sell to maximize his or her profits. As a result, many investors attempt to "time the market," or gauge when a bear market has begun and when it is likely to end.
The Dow is now gyrating after it plunged to 16,450 Friday and experienced an intra-day swing of near 1,100 points on Monday, leaving it more than 10 percent below its record close in May. The Dow hit an 18-month low at 16,106 on Monday morning before it trimmed losses. The NASDAQ is down 11 percent from a record high reached earlier this year and is on pace for its worst month since November 2008.
When all four of these pieces of information are observed together, they provide a pretty good sense for how much risk exists in the market at any given time.  If the long term trends are up, every pullback (-3-5% drop or so) and every correction (-5-15% drop or so) should be treated as a clearance sale - an opportunity to buy at short-term low/discounted prices - and an opportunity to rotate out of lagging asset classes and sectors and into stronger ones.

But what about your question?  What if the weight of the evidence leans toward the market rolling over into a full-fledged bear market (-20% or more drop in value)?  After all, it happens every 7-10 years and the average market crash is right around -42%.  Who wants to participate in watching their hard-earned retirement portfolio lose almost half its value?!
         I feel that the market is at it’s worst as far as the quailty of available homes at “Fair” prices – we realize that we will lose money, that’s a fact! Also, the sale will unfortunatly bolster the false values of the market. As the Doc’s readers know far too well, the stars have aligned and the wave is comming soon, prices will move further downward to a point of equalibrium with incomes, inventory, supply and demand. It looks like the banks will fight the whole way down delaying a natural correction. Folks have far too much debt into thier properties to make Short sales, preforclosers, forclosures sales work and finding folks who’ve lived many years in the same home with a good amount of equity to negociate with are very rare and thier homes are seldom Gems. 
We now stand where two roads diverge. But unlike the roads in Robert Frost’s familiar poem, they are not equally fair. The road we have long been traveling is deceptively easy, a smooth superhighway on which we progress with great speed, but at its end lies disaster. The other fork of the road—the one less traveled by—offers our last, our only chance to reach a destination that assures the preservation of the earth.
Repayment schedules differ with the type of bond issued. Municipal bonds typically pay interest semi-annually. Shorter term bonds generally pay interest only until maturity; longer term bonds generally are amortized through annual principal payments. Longer and shorter term bonds are often combined together in a single issue that requires the issuer to make approximately level annual payments of interest and principal. Certain bonds, known as zero coupon or capital appreciation bonds, accrue interest until maturity at which time both interest and principal become due.
Trade wars are usually bad for all parties in the end but between the beginning and the end there can be some surprising developments. Human actions and delusions on the part of the public can produce strange results at times. All of our systems are based on trust. When that trust is lost, everything will come crashing down. Until then, things will go on. Read More
Pullbacks have been extremely rare over the past year, to the point where the S&P 500 hasn’t experienced a decline of at least 3% since November, its longest such stretch since the mid-1990’s. Stocks have throughout the year been supported by strong corporate earnings and economic data, as well as the prospect of tax reform out of Washington, which has helped traders shrug off the impact of geopolitical uncertainty and devastating hurricanes.
At the center of everything we do is a strong commitment to independent research and sharing its profitable discoveries with investors. This dedication to giving investors a trading advantage led to the creation of our proven Zacks Rank stock-rating system. Since 1988 it has more than doubled the S&P 500 with an average gain of +25.32% per year. These returns cover a period from January 1, 1988 through November 5, 2018. Zacks Rank stock-rating system returns are computed monthly based on the beginning of the month and end of the month Zacks Rank stock prices plus any dividends received during that particular month. A simple, equally-weighted average return of all Zacks Rank stocks is calculated to determine the monthly return. The monthly returns are then compounded to arrive at the annual return. Only Zacks Rank stocks included in Zacks hypothetical portfolios at the beginning of each month are included in the return calculations. Zacks Ranks stocks can, and often do, change throughout the month. Certain Zacks Rank stocks for which no month-end price was available, pricing information was not collected, or for certain other reasons have been excluded from these return calculations.
But this strategy requires knowing when to sell, and bear markets can be very difficult to predict. As Ryan Miyamoto, a CFP® in Pasadena, CA, explains, “Selling at a loss is your biggest threat. A bear market will test your emotions and patience…The best strategy to control your emotions is to have a game plan. Start by creating a safety net that is not invested in the market. Seeing your accounts go down will be a lot easier if you know you have adequate cash on hand.”
If there doesn't seem to be many viable investments in uptrends, other options for more growth-oriented investors might include inverse Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).  The way these generally work is, when you invest in them and the market in question is declining, they actually make money.  Now, you'd rarely make +10% if the market is down -10% becuase there are fees and other complicated variables in these funds.
George is well versed in several areas, so I’m sure we will get into many intense discussions on topics ranging from technology to finance to economics. Yet, George is only one of the speakers that attendees will get to hear and meet. I really hope you can be there to experience it in person, with me. If you’re ready to learn more about the SIC 2018, and the other speakers who will be there, you can do so, here.

The US bear market of 2007–2009 was a 17-month bear market that lasted from October 9th 2007 to March 9th 2009, during the financial crisis of 2007-2009. The S&P 500 lost approximately 50% of its value, but the duration of this bear market was just below average due to extraordinary interventions by governments and central banks to prop up the stock market.

In 2007, John Del Vecchio managed a short only portfolio for Ranger Alternatives, L.P. which was later converted into the AdvisorShares Ranger Equity Bear ETF in 2011. Mr. Del Vecchio also launched an earnings quality index used for the Forensic Accounting ETF. He is the co-author of What's Behind the Numbers? A Guide to Exposing Financial Chicanery and Avoiding Huge Losses in Your Portfolio. Previously, he worked for renowned forensic accountant Dr. Howard Schilit, as well as short seller David Tice.
In 2012, NASA, the U.S. Forest Service, the Texas Forest Service, and Smokey Bear teamed up to celebrate Smokey's 68th birthday at NASA's Johnson Space Center in Houston. The popular mascot toured the center and recorded a promotional announcement for NASA Television. NASA astronaut Joe Acaba and the Expedition 31 crew chose a plush Smokey doll to be the team's launch mascot, celebrating their trip to the International Space Station. During his tour about 250 miles above Earth, Smokey turned 68 years old.[60]
RATE AND REVIEW This Podcasthttps://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/the-peter-schiff-show-podcast/id404963432?mt=2&ls=1Alex Jones BannedAlex Jones was banned from iTunes, Facebook, YouTube - his entire YouTube Channel is gone! He had over a million subscribers. The Alex Jones videos on my YouTube channel where I appeared as a guest are still up, bu ...…
I don't believe the developing bear market is an "end of the financial world event." We already had that in 2008. There is a difference between bears and collapses. Bear markets are normal, healthy corrections that refresh the markets and economy with creative destruction. There is almost no reason to believe that an economic collapse is imminent even if financial fleas are apparent. I will talk about that in a series of columns in coming weeks.

Warren Buffett’s favorite indicator is telling us that stocks are more overvalued right now than they have ever been before in American history.  That doesn’t mean that a stock market crash is imminent.  In fact, this indicator has been in the “danger zone” for quite some time.  But what it does tell us is that stock valuations are more bloated than we have ever seen and that a stock market crash would make perfect sense.  So precisely what is the “Buffett Indicator”?  Well, it is actually very simple to calculate.  You just take the total market value of all stocks and divide it by the gross domestic product. Read More


The watchdog found that "valuations are also elevated" in bond markets. Of particular interest is the OFR's discussion on duration. Picking up where we left off in June 2016, and calculates that "at current duration levels, a 1 percentage point increase in interest rates would lead to a decline of almost $1.2 trillion in the securities underlying the index."
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