While the Liberal International Order and its institutions are credited with the relative peace the world has enjoyed since 1945, Niall says, “That's a very implausible argument.” He believes the world has been more peaceful because of the will and capacity of the US to be the principal guarantor of the system. This is often referred to as Pax Americana, in which the US employed its overwhelming military power to shape and direct global events.
Forget the porn star scandals and possible Russian collusion in an election over fifteen months ago. Most Americans don’t give a damn about either but from turning on cable news, you would think that’s all that is happening in the world. Cable news is out for ratings and those kind of things sell. What you won’t see much of are some of the harsh realities facing Americans and preventing us from becoming truly great. Read More
Silver soared recently and white metal’s rally was accompanied by a huge volume. Those who are new to the precious metals market will probably immediately view this as bullish as that’s what the classic technical analysis would imply. Silver is not a classic asset, though, and classic measures often don’t apply to it. One way to check the real implications of a given development is to examine the previous cases and see what kind of action followed. That’s what we’re going to do in today’s free analysis. Let’s start with silver’s daily chart. Read More

In 2014, the campaign celebrated Smokey’s 70th birthday, with new birthday-themed television, radio, print, outdoor, and digital PSAs that continued the 2013 campaign “Smokey Bear Hug.” The campaign depicted Smokey rewarding his followers with a hug, in acknowledgement of using the proper actions to prevent wildfires. In return, outdoor–loving individuals across the nation were shown reciprocating with a birthday bear hug in honor of his 70 years of service. Audiences were encouraged to join in by posting their own #SmokeyBearHug online. The campaign also did a partnership with Disney’s Planes that same year.[61]
But… with so many stocks that were overvalued at the start of the year… it’s understandable that many were selling to take some profit. But the last couple weeks have been an over reaction (as with Amazon, FB, etc…along with the uncertainty with China…fyi: China is well aware that they’ve been trading on our market and paying way too little of their fair share of tariffs for way too long. So… I’m certain there will be some sort of compromise to continue trade). But… all this has caused the amateur investor to panic lately and resulted in a greater sell off than what many companies deserve. A logical investor/trader will research and understand the fundamentals of the companies he/she is invested in and know their worth (yes… some companies are still overvalued… ) but the pajama trader should never sell in a panic. If they do, then they should sell and stay out of the Market altogether. Because this has been just a vicious Market Correction as of late… but it’s not a Bear Market. The unemployment rate is too low and the economy is gaining strength overall…and the stock market is far from euphoric. If you’re young you always have time on your side for recovering on any losses. If you’re over 60 consider buying some well valued companies who pay good dividends (but, be careful, don’t fall for those ridiculously high dividend stocks like 7% and higher… they’re often paying a high dividend to entice people to invest in what is probably a failing company.) A 3% dividend can really be a nice way to earn income while waiting for a company to rebound in the stock market.
The DJIA actually did a lot better than a lot of the other averages.  The Dow Jones transports were down just over 4%; 445 points.  the NASDAQ was down over 4% as well - 315 points. Weakness across the board in the stock market today.  And it's not just the homebuilders and the autos. I've been talking about those sectors as leading indicators and, yes, many of those stocks made new 52-week lows today as well. But they were not the worst performers on the day.

One of the primary reasons municipal bonds are considered separately from other types of bonds is their special ability to provide tax-exempt income. Interest paid by the issuer to bond holders is often exempt from gross income for federal income tax purposes, as well as state or local taxes depending on the state in which the issuer is located, subject to certain restrictions. Bonds issued for certain purposes are subject to the alternative minimum tax as an item of tax preference.[1]
The Outsider Club is a group of people ready to take our finances into our own hands; to manage our own investments; to not give into a system that skims off the top until it's time for you to retire. We offer expert opinion and guidance on saving, retirement and financial planning, taxes, investments, and generally how to financially thrive on your own, independent of the banking system and government. We'll also help you shield your civil liberties and freedoms. We pledge allegiance to no political party.
“These are the times that try men’s souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands it now deserves the love and thanks of man and woman. Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph.”—Thomas Paine, December 1776
Rate and Review This Podcast on iTunesOverwhelming Evidence of a Weakening EconomyThe Dow Jones was the only one of the major indexes to close the day higher. The S&P was down slightly, we had larger declines in the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000. More importantly than the movements that we've just seen on the day, or even the week, look at what's ...…
Unfortunately for the Fed, monetary tightening has become more powerful because of the debt. Lacy mentioned in his latest quarterly review that, “Excessive debt, rather than rendering monetary deceleration impotent, actually strengthens central bank power because interest expense rises quickly. Therefore, what used to be considered modest changes in monetary restraint that resulted in higher interest rates now has a profound and immediate negative impact on the economy.”

He remains confident stocks will see a fresh string of new highs in the final months of the year. Referring to history as a guide, Stovall noted that the fourth quarter is pretty strong during midterm election years, and seasonality points to more gains. He believes it will be easy for the S&P to grab another 80 points and break above 3,000 by year-end.
Exceptional Bear's guidance is an optimal tool to capably oversee the investment decisions of outside managers.  Once you understand this Market, facilitated by candle charts in color, represent market history, the wrong asset classes, become readily evident. By subscribing to Exceptional Bear,you'll be learning invaluable investment skills, which will allow you to "get it" on a deep level. The foundation of our methodology is the most advanced and refined version of RN Elliott's legacy - New-Wave Elliott™.  
7. The low interest rates that I can actually obtain right now will not be around much longer. With inflation and growing lack of confidence in US, interest rates will rise. This assumes the 80% scenario of inflation. It is possible Gary is right and we stay in low interest environment for a couple more years, but it is still likely to go up, along with inflation, at some point in the not too distant future.
Wild rumors spread of bear raids, of fabulous profits made by short-sellers, and of political conspiracies hatched by foreigners interested in bringing down the market, the dollar and the U.S. economy. In early 1932, the Philadelphia Public Ledger maintained that “European capitalists had supplied much of the cash needed to engineer the greatest bear raid in history. These proverbially open-handed and trusting gentleman had accepted the leadership of New York’s adroit Democratic financier, Bernard Baruch.” Baruch, the best known short-seller in the country, shrugged off the charge.

David and Maribel Maldonado seem the very definition of making it in America. David arrived in the U.S. from Mexico as a small child. His father supported the family by working long hours as a mechanic while his mother raised their 10 children. By the time David had a family of his own, his career as a salesman was flourishing. His wife Maribel, whose family is also from Mexico, worked as a hairstylist while caring for the couple’s two children. David’s annual salary reached about $113,000 by the time the children were in their teens. It was more than enough to live in a pretty suburban house outside Dallas, take family vacations, go to restaurants and splurge at the nearby mall. And to afford health insurance.

“In retrospect, the spark might seem as ominous as a financial crash, as ordinary as a national election, or as trivial as a Tea Party. The catalyst will unfold according to a basic Crisis dynamic that underlies all of these scenarios: An initial spark will trigger a chain reaction of unyielding responses and further emergencies. The core elements of these scenarios (debt, civic decay, global disorder) will matter more than the details, which the catalyst will juxtapose and connect in some unknowable way. If foreign societies are also entering a Fourth Turning, this could accelerate the chain reaction. At home and abroad, these events will reflect the tearing of the civic fabric at points of extreme vulnerability – problem areas where America will have neglected, denied, or delayed needed action.” – The Fourth Turning– Strauss & Howe  Read More

Let's spin the time machine back to the late Middle Ages, at the height of feudalism, and imagine we're trying to get a boatload of goods to the nearest city to sell. As we drift down the river, we're constantly being stopped and charged a fee for transiting one small fiefdom after another. When we finally reach the city, there's an entry fee for bringing our goods to market. Read More


Many investors have missed out on what would have been extremely successful investments over the past several years because the stocks they like always seemed too expensive. If you like a stock's prospects but are convinced that its current valuation is just too high, put it on your wish list, along with a price at which you'd be comfortable buying shares. Then, if a bear market pushes the prices of the stocks you like lower, you'll be ready to make investments that you're comfortable holding for the long run. This can actually make you look forward to bear markets and the mouth-watering investment opportunities they can offer.

What is the opposite of a margin of safety? That is a question this market has had me asking myself for some time now. A margin of safety is a discount to intrinsic value that provides a safety net in the result of an error in analysis or unforeseen negative developments. The opposite of a margin of safety then is a premium to intrinsic value than can vanish even if your analysis is correct or things go unexpectedly in your favor. There are times when a security reaches a valuation such that even if everything goes right you’re unlikely to profit. The price has already discounted a perfect outcome. This “priced for perfection” scenario is the opposite of a margin of safety and this is currently where the stock market finds itself today. Read More


In this article I point to the pressures on the Fed to moderate monetary policy, but that will only affect the timing of the next cyclical credit crisis. That is going to happen anyway, triggered by the Fed or even a foreign central bank. In the very short term, a tendency to moderate monetary policy might allow the gold price to recover from its recent battering.
In order for innovation to thrive, and living standards to rise over the coming decades, we must return to a “low-entropy" legal, regulatory, tax, and monetary policy. Too much noisy interference from governments and central banks distorts market signals. They also increase the hassles of doing business, which stifles innovation and discourages entrepreneurship. Ultimately, this makes the country less wealthy and prosperous.
The indicator I use to get a broader, real-time measure of inflation is the New York Fed’s Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG). This gauge captures sustained movements in inflation from information contained in a broad set of price, real activity, and financial data. In December, the UIG hit its highest level since August 2006, as the below chart shows.

One of the most commonly asked questions among market participants and non-participants alike is, “What will cause the stock market to stop rising?” Normally, investors would be thrilled at the prospect of a perpetual rise in equity prices. Yet, with so few direct participants nowadays compared to former years, there is a growing desire among many for a major decline which will allow non-participants to buy stocks at a much lower price. As we’ll discuss in this commentary, that scenario will likely remain a pipe dream for an extended period before it ever becomes a reality. Read More
"Naturally, the smooth termination of the gold-exchange standard, the restoration of the gold standard, and supplemental and interim measures that might be called for, in particular with a view to organizing international credit on this new basis, will have to be deliberately agreed upon between countries, in particular those on which there devolves special responsibility by virtue of their economic and financial capabilities." - General Charles de Gaulle

Lady Amelia has a tattoo of three bear cubs to honor her siblings, according to a profile in W magazine. — Kate Storey, Town & Country, "Who Is the 'Most Beautiful Royal,' Lady Amelia Windsor?," 24 Aug. 2018 The last reported bear attack in Yellowstone was in 2015, according to the National Park Service. — Stephen Sorace, Fox News, "Bear attacks, injures 10-year-old boy at Yellowstone National Park," 24 Aug. 2018 Authorities want to remind people that bears are wild animals and cornering them can be dangerous. — Kayla Fitzgerald, sacbee, "Bear crawls out from under house in King's Beach," 6 July 2018 Chinese equities have plunged into bear-market territory. — The Economist, "As its trade tussle with America heats up, China is on the back foot," 5 July 2018 For the past three years, Judge Cindy Lederman has walked by a half-dozen statues of playful bear cubs every day on her way up to her high-ceilinged, top-floor office looking out toward Miami's waterfront. — Adiel Kaplan, miamiherald, "She struck down gay adoption ban and handled notorious juvenile cases. Now she's retiring.," 3 July 2018 The trooper watched the bear walk through the neighborhood but then lost sight of it. — Christine Dempsey, courant.com, "Bold Burglar – A Bear — Binges On Barkhamsted House’s Food," 29 June 2018 But scientists believe the bears once had a much greater range, roaming through southern China, Vietnam and Myanmar. — Brigit Katz, Smithsonian, "This Ancient Panda Skull Belongs to a Previously Unknown Lineage," 20 June 2018 Many steps can be taken to avoid a bear attack, according to the U.S. Forest Service. — Lindsay Kimble, PEOPLE.com, "Summer Has Arrived — Here's How to Avoid Flesh-Eating Bacteria & More Warm Weather Health Hazards," 5 June 2018

What effect will a bear market in bonds have on equities? That depends. If bond yields rise above a certain level, equity risk premiums will start to look less attractive. Higher rates also push up interest costs for corporations, although the bank's analysts say interest rates would have to increase by 100 basis points in the U.S. and 250 basis points in Europe before they become a noticeable drag on earnings.

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