I often say that every great thinker has one “big idea.” George’s information theory of economics certainly qualifies as one of those. You’ve likely heard me mention how important exposing yourself to these big, powerful ideas is. Well, that’s exactly what I aim to do with my Strategic Investment Conference. I have invited George to speak at the SIC 2018 in San Diego, this coming March.

Tech stocks that have been the strongest performer so far this year, in the meantime, did snap a four-day losing streak on Sep 10. But, let’s admit that such stocks are vulnerable to trade-related issues. Trump himself urged Apple Inc APPL to shift its production from China to the United States. The trillion-dollar company said that tariffs on China would hurt its revenues and impact a wide range of its products.
(= carry) burden, arms → tragen; gift, message → bei sich tragen, mit sich führen; to bear away/back → mitnehmen/mit (sich) zurücknehmen; (through the air) → fort- or wegtragen/zurücktragen; the music was borne/borne away on the wind (liter) → die Musik wurde vom Wind weiter-/weggetragen; he was borne along by the crowd → die Menge trug ihn mit (sich)

Smokey's debut poster was released on August 9, 1944, which is considered the character's birthday.[2][19][20] Overseen by the Cooperative Forest Fire Prevention Campaign (CFFP), the first poster was illustrated by Albert Staehle. In it Smokey was depicted wearing jeans and a campaign hat,[6][21] pouring a bucket of water on a campfire. The message underneath reads, "Smokey says – Care will prevent 9 out of 10 forest fires!" Knickerbocker Bears gained the license to produce Smokey Bear dolls in 1944.[22] Also in 1949, Forest Service worker Rudy Wendelin became the full-time campaign artist and he was considered Smokey Bear's "manager" until Wendelin retired in 1973.[2]
JOIN PETER at the New Orleans Investment Conferencehttps://neworleansconference.com/conference-schedule/Democrat Women Screaming in AgonyBrett Kavanaugh, over the weekend was confirmed by the Senate, and there were some Democrat women in the gallery watching the vote and they were just screaming in agony; that this was such a terrible thing. I ...…

It is a false premise that you can know when you’re in a bear market. Market observers are fond of looking at a downward sloping historical stock index chart and saying “the market is going down” or “we are in a bear market.” The truth is, the only thing you can say with certainty is that the market has gone down and perhaps we were in a bear market. Where it is going next or whether we are in a bear market is anyone’s guess.


It seems unfair that the earnest polymath Elon Musk should go broke in the electric car business while Kylie Jenner becomes a billionaire at age 20 hawking lip gloss on Snapchat, but that’s how the American Dream rolls these late days of empire. Perhaps the lesson here, for all you MBA wannabes, is that Mr. Musk could switch his production facilities from cars to lip gloss. Of course, to successfully market his new line of cosmetics on social media, Elon might have to consider sexual “reassignment” surgery — unless he could persuade American men via Facebook and Twitter, that lip enhancement boosts male self-esteem almost as much as the purchase of a Ford F-450 pickup truck at a laughable fraction of the cost. Read More
This yearly ritual has become part of the news cycle, and the inequality it exposes has ceased to shock us. The very rich getting very much richer is now part of life, like the procession of the seasons. But we should be extremely concerned: their increased wealth gives them ever-greater control of our politics and of our media. Countries that were once democracies are becoming plutocracies; plutocracies are becoming oligarchies; oligarchies are becoming kleptocracies. Read More
During the bear market a heavy debate ensued as to whose fault the falling market was. The political parties were heavily divided during this period.[10] For the most part there were three camps: ones that simply blamed the economy, others that wanted to pin the passing Bush Administration and others that wanted to push the blame on the newly arriving Obama Administration.

In order for innovation to thrive, and living standards to rise over the coming decades, we must return to a “low-entropy" legal, regulatory, tax, and monetary policy. Too much noisy interference from governments and central banks distorts market signals. They also increase the hassles of doing business, which stifles innovation and discourages entrepreneurship. Ultimately, this makes the country less wealthy and prosperous.

The company lost $1.1 billion in cash in the last quarter, executives are leaving the company in droves, it’s facing production issues with its Model 3 and, as I recently discussed, Elon Musk insulted analysts on the latest earnings call by dismissing their questions – regarding the company’s survival – as “boring” and “boneheaded,” (just after shareholders approved his obscenely large pay package).

Jan 15, 2018 KEY to the current TOPPING. Two attempts to break through resistance, finally breaking through on the 3rd attempt. In the long, Map of the Market by Magnitude above, notice the aqua circle at the top right, shows the short distance between the current Dow price, and the min upside required to breach the upper parallel, just as in 1929, before a CRASH can occur. Most likely first a false breakdown, as we had in BREXIT, should allow us to sell shorts and re-position at a more advantageous level before the upper parallel is breached. We are at that juncture NOW.
The Smokey Bear campaign has been criticized by wildfire policy experts in cases where decades of fire suppression and the indigenous fire ecology were not taken into consideration, contributing to unnaturally dense forests with too many dead standing and downed trees, brush, and shrubs often referred to as "fuel".[72][73] Periodic low-intensity wildfires are an integral component of certain ecosystems that evolved to depend on natural fires for vitality, rejuvenation, and regeneration. Examples are chaparral and closed-cone pine forest habitats, which need fire for cones to open and seeds to sprout. Wildfires also play a role in the preservation of pine barrens, which are well adapted to small ground fires and rely on periodic fires to remove competing species.
At the beginning of April, JPMorgan's Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou pointed out something unexpected: in a time when everyone was stressing out over the upcoming inversion in the Treasury yield curve, the JPM analyst showed that the forward curve for the 1-month US OIS rate, a proxy for the Fed policy rate, had already inverted after the two-year forward point. In other words, while cash instruments had yet to officially invert, the market had already priced this move in. Read More
Enclosed are our Student Aid Report and a copy of (Another University’s) Award Letter per our recent telephone conversation. We discussed our family’s present financial situation and how it would be financially difficult for Heather to attend Anywhere University unless the university reconsiders her financial aid amount. You said you would do everything possible to provide additional assistance for Heather and suggested we send you the above-stated information.
In the days ahead, markets are awaiting potential announcements on the Trump administration's plan to curb Chinese investments in U.S. technology, although messaging on those measures from the White House has proven conflicting. The U.S. is also set to impose an additional 25 percent tariff on $34 billion in Chinese imports on July 6, with duties on a further $16 billion in Chinese goods in the works.

The end game is upon us. With our aging demographic and continued employment loss, the US will have to maintain a policy of easy money and more QE. This will not bode well for real estate as employment is a key factor for paying a mortgage. The kids coming out of college arent finding good jobs and this will continue. So it’s monetary debasement with rising commodity costs. For as far as the eye can see.
Obviously nobody knows for sure. That is what makes investing interesting and sometimes downright scary. But we need to parse through the data available and find where our convictions lie. This article is meant to give readers all the ammunition they need to discern a position for themselves but we will also provide our assessment at the end. It is fine to disagree. We need investors on both sides of the argument. That is what makes up a marketplace in the first place.

This is just the beginning of a long trip that will take us to South America (where we get to see a financial crisis underway in Argentina)… Germany (where we hope to find out more about how Germans are preparing to tighten up at the European Central Bank)… and Bermuda, where we are scheduled to give a speech to a group of readers at the Legacy Investment Summit. Read More
Capitalism is not chiefly an incentive system but an information system. The key to economic growth is not acquisition of things by the pursuit of monetary rewards, but the expansion of wealth through learning and discovery. The economy grows by accumulating surprising knowledge through the conduct of the falsifiable experiments of free enterprises.
Now the Bruce and Nellie Ohr syory is actually funny and a complete novel yet it digs to the heart and the real meat of the deep tentacles these rascals were using… The Ohr story is the best proof yet and I will never believe Sessions and company did not know all this long ago. Like before he recused……These people are like impacted infected wisdom teeth that need pulling and maybe cracking with a hammer first to get it all out….

"We believe we are in a 'rolling bear market,' a market where risk assets across sectors and geographies reprice to account for the removal of central bank provided liquidity," Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson told TheStreet in September. "Less central bank liquidity support as we near the end of an economic cycle should bring higher volatility, as risk assets and markets lose some of their ability to absorb shocks. Our call is not for a simultaneous and large repricing across risk assets, but for a bear market that rolls through different assets and sectors at different times with the weakest links (Bitcoin, EM debt and equities, BTPs, funding spreads, base metals and early cycle industries like home builders and airlines) being hit first/hardest."


Wireless power technology recently became popular with its application in charging wireless-capable devices, (such as a smartphone) via a Powermat interface. There is one company currently building out a true wireless power supply without the need for an intermediary “pad,” which could develop into an investment opportunity of a lifetime if it or another company successfully launches an IPO, not to mention the upstream manufacturing interface components.  Read More
RATE AND REVIEW this podcasthttps://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/What About Employers' Day?Labor Day is coming up on Monday it it annoys me that we just have a Labor Day and we don't have an Entrepreneur Day. We don't have a day to celebrate the employer. Why is that? The entrepreneurs are the unsung heroes of the American economy. I'm ...…

The NASDAQ 100 is surging today following the Democrats retaking the House. The reason for the rally? Just days ago, President Trump threatened to file anti-trust cases against the big tech companies and claim they were monopolies. Investors believe that the Democrats will neutralize that threat in the near-term. As tech surges higher, investors should be ready to pull the trigger on the short side when price hits $178.00. This is a major technical resistance and all technical chart…
Now the Bruce and Nellie Ohr syory is actually funny and a complete novel yet it digs to the heart and the real meat of the deep tentacles these rascals were using… The Ohr story is the best proof yet and I will never believe Sessions and company did not know all this long ago. Like before he recused……These people are like impacted infected wisdom teeth that need pulling and maybe cracking with a hammer first to get it all out….
David and Maribel Maldonado seem the very definition of making it in America. David arrived in the U.S. from Mexico as a small child. His father supported the family by working long hours as a mechanic while his mother raised their 10 children. By the time David had a family of his own, his career as a salesman was flourishing. His wife Maribel, whose family is also from Mexico, worked as a hairstylist while caring for the couple’s two children. David’s annual salary reached about $113,000 by the time the children were in their teens. It was more than enough to live in a pretty suburban house outside Dallas, take family vacations, go to restaurants and splurge at the nearby mall. And to afford health insurance.
The most valuable bubble empirically for the purpose of our elucidation has to be the Mississippi bubble, whose central figure was John Law. Law, a Scotsman whose father’s profession was as a goldsmith and banker in Edinburgh, set up an inflation scheme in 1716 to rescue France’s finances. He proposed to the Regent for the infant Louis XIV a scheme that would be based on a new paper currency. Read More
Market Closed Early for July 4th HolidayThe U.S. stock market closed early today, ahead of tomorrow's Fourth of July holiday when the markets are of course closed and Americans are out celebrating Independence Day, the birth of the nation, July 4, 1776. I love the Fourth of July as a holiday; it is purely American.Framers of the Constitution Ri ...…
Looking for a home, first time buyer and loan approved but feel a bit nervous about it all. Should we wait a while knowing the market may continue to worsen? Will prices lower enough to buy us something a little better/closer to the city we currently live? Low interest rates now, will they go lower? These concerns/worries and more. Is it just first time buyer jitters? Appreciate your input.
A lot of people are shocked by how rapidly things are beginning to move.  The U.S. economy is slowing down at a pace that we haven’t seen since the last recession, and this is something that I have been tracking extensively.  But now the slowdown is so obvious that even some of the biggest names in the mainstream media are talking about it.  For example, just take a look at what Jim Cramer of CNBC is saying.  For a long time, he was touting how well the U.S. economy was doing, but now his tune has completely changed.  According to Cramer, a lot of corporate executives have “told me about how quickly things have cooled”, and he says that many of them are shocked because this “wasn’t supposed to occur so soon”… Read More
In fact, there is remarkably little evidence of organized bear raiding on the U.S. market following the October Crash. In order to dispel the myths, the economist of the New York Stock Exchange, Edward Meeker, published a book, entitled Short-Selling, in 1932. Meeker claimed that bears had not precipitated the crash. In November 1929, the NYSE found that around one hundredth of one percent of outstanding shares had been sold short. A later study in May 1931 found the short interest had risen to 3/5 of one percent of the total market value. More than ten times as many shares were held on margin. Nor could the stock exchange identify any bear raids in the subsequent market decline.
This study tends to support the general notion that now is the time for investors to be asking questions about the viability of the long term trend.  It also supports the analysis that the bull market started in the 2011 time frame. It shows us consistently that it is the trend from 2011 that traders need to keep a watchful eye upon as well as the 50 week EMA.  From a trading point of view, it's quite helpful to have some clear criteria for recognizing the end of a trend.  In that light, while there is likely to be a rally in the primary indices, when that comes it is likely that some key sectors will not participate or will participate marginally.  The same underperforming sectors are likely to break down first, giving advanced warning that the general market will be soon to follow.
Now a money manager at Janus Henderson, Gross was the co-founder of Pimco, which he helped build into the world’s largest bond fund manager and was dubbed the “bond king” by the financial media. In his note, Gross said he expected the 10-year yield to rise above 2.75% by the end of this year. But he waved away worries that rising yields would deal pain to investors, saying higher yields could sit along with slightly positive returns for bonds.
I think of velocity as a machine which money has to go through to produce economic activity. If the machine is on a low setting, it doesn’t matter how much money you put in—you won’t get growth. The falling velocity of money, which is at its lowest point since 1949, is another reason why growth has remained subdued in the post-financial crisis world.
"We expect both a deterioration in earnings quality and a peak in organic growth in 2018," Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's chief US equity strategist, wrote in a client note. "The bear market in valuations has already begun and supports our overall view that the next cyclical bear market in US equities may have already begun, but is being masked by an index price level that has fallen only 12% thanks to the adrenaline shot to EPS from tax."
As this stock market correction progresses, it is natural to consider what levels may be effectivein halting the decline. We have recently taken a stab at a couple potential “support” levels in the U.S. market with excellent success, so far. Those posts include Monday’s The Mother Of All Support Levels on the broad Value Line Geometric Composite which held precisely, as well as a few Premium Posts at The Lyons Share covering key sectors, which also held on cue: Market Leaders At Must-Hold Levels and Finally Some Support To Bank On (if you’d like to see these posts, shoot us an email at [email protected] and we’d be happy to share). Read More
The current sell-off comes as a shock to investors who have grown accustomed to the eerie market calm and steady gains during much of the administration of President Trump. But this volatility is something you should get used to because it’s more typical of the advanced stages of a bull market, says Robert Bacarella, founder and chairman of Monetta Financial Services, who helps manage the Monetta Fund MONTX, -0.52%  and the Monetta Core Growth Fund MYIFX, -0.67%
Mild diversification is the ticket to making money. Have some concentration in your best ideas and avoid the worst spots of the economy. As you know, I have been buying the First Trust ISE-Revere Natural Gas ETF FCG, +0.56%  on what I believe is value pricing that will not last much more than a year or two. I have been selling most high P/E stocks and mutual funds with the word "growth" in the title as new clients bring them to me. I don't like anything that relies on a weak dollar to succeed since I believe the dollar is likely in a new higher trading range compared to a decade ago. I talk more about what I like and don't like in my recent free quarterly investor report.
Despite persistent faith in the U.S. dollar and assurances that rate hikes will continue into 2019, gold has plenty of room to take back its losses and make new gains, reports an article on Newsmax. Barron’s contributor Andrew Bary notes that gold’s lower prices come at a time when global inflation is bound to go up as governments look to deal with mounting sovereign debt. Read More
The financials were helping to lead the decline.  Again we have Morgan Stanley at a new 52-week low, down 3.3%. Goldman Sachs down 3.6%, a new 52-week low.  But really, the biggest losers on the day were the tech stocks. These have been the stand-outs. This is what has been holding up the market - the FAANG stocks, all of these technology infotech stocks - and a lot of people were actually describing them irrationally as a "safe havens".  I couldn't believe it when people were saying that tech stocks were the new "safe havens". When you hear stuff like that, you know you're close to the end.
Robert Mueller is supposed to be investigating Russiagate, which has been shown to be a hoax concocted by former CIA director John Brennan, former FBI director James Comey, and current deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein. As Russiagate is a hoax, Mueller has not been able to produce a shred of evidence of the alleged Trump/Putin plot to hack Hillary’s emails and influence the last presidential election. Read More
I don't believe Clancy actually wrote this book. It isn't like his prior Ryan books. It's over 1000 pages, and if you deleted all the "f" words, it probably would have been 100 pages shorter. Not having references to sex and whores/prostitutes could have cut another 100 pages. He could have been just fine not adding useless filler to demonstrate his knowledge of history. I had a hard time even getting interested in it and almost gave up about 10 chapters into it. It finally did pick up and I stayed the course, despite multiple typo errors and repeated statements in different parts of the book. Evidently, even the editors couldn't get through it all. Very disappointing. I ordered two more of the books in the series at the same time and really hope they are much better (written by Greany). Of the 13 books that I have read of the Ryan/Ryan JR/Clark series of books, this is the first one I've given a negative rating on, as I normally love his books.
Confidence and complacency are more acute now than any time I’ve seen before. All expressions of overvaluation are at historical extremes. Despite this, most money managers remain in the market. The thesis is “if it’s going up, regardless of anything else, I want to be in it.” Perhaps the best indicator of complacency is the VIX which at its current level of 13 tells us that investors see no reason to protect their positions. Every minor decline is seen as a buying opportunity. The rationale is that the Fed would not allow anything worse than a 10% decline. If the stock market starts sinking between now and October 1st, I will be most interested to see if the Fed eliminates QE.
On this episode of Money For the Rest of Us, David Stein walks you through the complex idea of a bond bear market. He explains that a market consisting of losses of 20% or more are considered a bear market type loss and that this type of loss is possible even in the bond market. David states that “It’s important to understand what drives interest rates, how high they could get, and what the ramifications of that are.” Be sure to listen to this full episode to fully understand this idea and to hear some of David’s suggestions for investing in a rising interest rate environment.
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