I forget now exactly what the size of the interest expense of the public debt is, about $400 billion. The government is paying 2.2 or something on its debt. Doubling of yields to 4-something and doubling of gross interest expense to $800 billion or so would certainly be an inconvenience. It would require very painful political choices. But, no, it is not impossible.
Your correct. Lump into the mix of policies coming out of Sacramento and DC. RE in California is in for another leg down starting this summer. Problem will be even worse if QE is halted by the Fed. Any upward trend in home prices may start happening in the 2015-2020 time frame. The toxic sludge that was the no mortgage down to minimal down is still in the system. As long as that is the case, kiss any correction goodbye.
In the 1500s, bull and bear baiting was a betting sport where dogs would attack a chained bull or bear and bets would be placed on the outcome. Although the sport is now illegal in all but one state (South Carolina), it was the first dual association of the bull and bear. In the 17th century, hunting terms began to further the association with the market, and in the 18th and 19th centuries, the terms were first used in reference to the stock market. 
I often say that every great thinker has one “big idea.” George’s information theory of economics certainly qualifies as one of those. You’ve likely heard me mention how important exposing yourself to these big, powerful ideas is. Well, that’s exactly what I aim to do with my Strategic Investment Conference. I have invited George to speak at the SIC 2018 in San Diego, this coming March.
Regardless of circumstance or family background, Tony believes everyone has the ability to make choices that affect their future positively or negatively. In The Millionaire Choice, he shares the principles and actions he applied during his journey to becoming a millionaire to reveal how, with the right financial knowledge and choices, anyone can become a millionaire.
“The European Union is a perfect illustration of why the Liberal International Order is over. The EU wholly mismanaged the financial crisis, massively amplifying the effects on member states. But it will turn out to have committed suicide because its leaders got the immigration issue wrong. The Europeans forgot that borders are really the first defining characteristic of a state. As they became borderless, they made themselves open to a catastrophe, which was the uncontrolled influx of more than a million people. The most basic roles that we expect a state to perform, from economic management to the defense of borders, were flunked completely by the EU over the past 10 years.”

Both my wife and me obtained new jobs last year and are trying to pay the debt we incurred while unemployed during the past year. This has forced us to take a seriously consider Stanford’s award as an economically viable alternative. However, Heather would prefer to attend Anywhere University. If there is any way you can increase Heather’s award to make the cost of Anywhere University affordable for us, Heather will commit to attending your university for the 2017-2018 school year.
There is increasing awareness that another financial crisis is in the offing, and, of course, everyone has an opinion as to what will trigger it and what form it will take. But there is broad agreement that since the Lehman crisis ten years ago, instead of resolving the problems that led to that crisis, governments and their monetary authorities have allowed the underlying position to deteriorate. Read More
If you believe that there will be a significant change in global economic paradigms over the next 10 years, consider this book as part of developing an applicable investment strategy. Basically the author is focusing on commodities as they will do well in an inflationary period and, reading between the lines, commodities never go to zero (unless one is so leveraged up that one is forced to sell when commodities sell). Fortunately for us small investors the author does provide a road map to utilize his strategy by way of ETFs. With the government rolling the printing presses to shore up and stimulate our economy, inflation will result. This book examines the issues with inflation and how to invest in response.
A bear market rally is when the stock market posts gains for days or even weeks. It can easily trick many investors into thinking the stock market trend has reversed, and a new bull market has begun. But nothing in nature or the stock market moves in a straight line. Even with a normal bear market, there will be days or months when the trend is upward. But until it moves up 20 percent or more, it is still in a bear market.
TheEconomiCollapse.com's Michael Snyder thinks so. For a very long time, Ron Paul has been one of my political heroes.  His willingness to stand up for true constitutional values and to keep saying “no” to the Washington establishment over and over again won the hearts of millions of American voters, and I wish that there had been enough of us to send him to the White House either in 2008 or in 2012.  To this day, I still wish that we could make his classic work entitled “End The Fed” required reading in every high school classroom in America.  He was one of the few members of Congress that actually understood economics, and it is very sad that he has now retired from politics.  With the enormous mess that Washington D.C. has become, we sure could use a lot more statesmen like him right now. Read More
*** Since the attacks, we at the Daily Reckoning – as stunned as the next group of conspirators – have been asking a question similar to one I’m sure has crossed your mind at least once: “Why?” The Sovereign Society’s John Pugsley offers one point of view: “It is not hatred for freedom or materialism that caused terrorists to sacrifice their lives.” Pugsley quotes Joseph Sobran: “You delude and flatter yourself if you think someone hates you for your virtues.”
I forget now exactly what the size of the interest expense of the public debt is, about $400 billion. The government is paying 2.2 or something on its debt. Doubling of yields to 4-something and doubling of gross interest expense to $800 billion or so would certainly be an inconvenience. It would require very painful political choices. But, no, it is not impossible.
The Smokey Bear campaign has been criticized by wildfire policy experts in cases where decades of fire suppression and the indigenous fire ecology were not taken into consideration, contributing to unnaturally dense forests with too many dead standing and downed trees, brush, and shrubs often referred to as "fuel".[72][73] Periodic low-intensity wildfires are an integral component of certain ecosystems that evolved to depend on natural fires for vitality, rejuvenation, and regeneration. Examples are chaparral and closed-cone pine forest habitats, which need fire for cones to open and seeds to sprout. Wildfires also play a role in the preservation of pine barrens, which are well adapted to small ground fires and rely on periodic fires to remove competing species.

None of this means stocks were at a bottom Wednesday. At this point, we may need the classic “big puke moment” of capitulation to wipe out the remaining weak hands, restore enough fear and respect for the market and clear the air. No one knows when that will happen. But watch for a big whoosh down at an open, followed by a quick and sharp reversal, and some gains.


Winning Tip: Your financial aid appeal letter must present a precise narrative with numerical support, and include  properly identified appropriate documentation (i.e. no credit card receipts) motivating the Financial Aid Office to lower your Expected Family Contribution (EFC). A lower EFC increases your family’s financial need which usually provides more financial assistance.


Still, bear market rallies may seem as if they are a rising bull market, but until the market shows gains of 20% from the bear market low, it can't be considered a bull market. And, while bear markets occur during the contraction phase of the business cycle, bull markets typically happen when the business cycle is expanding (shown by several indicators, like lower inflation and increased employment, among others). 

2015–16 stock market selloff 18 August 2015 The Dow Jones fell 588 points during a two-day period, 1,300 points from August 18–21. On Monday, August 24, world stock markets were down substantially, wiping out all gains made in 2015, with interlinked drops in commodities such as oil, which hit a six-year price low, copper, and most of Asian currencies, but the Japanese yen, losing value against the United States dollar. With this plunge, an estimated ten trillion dollars had been wiped off the books on global markets since June 3. [30] [31] [32]
So what are the prospects for another rally in bonds?  In our view, it is not a rosy picture.  For the first time in a very long time the fundamentals and technicals of investing in bonds have become aligned.  The global economy has transitioned into a period of synchronised growth, spare capacity is being used up and unemployment is close to the lows seen for many years.  All that suggests inflation risks are on the upside.  Deflation risks are waning and sooner or later this will need to be priced into bond prices. On the technical side, central banks are now winding down their quantitative easing programmes.  This means that Governments will have to finance their deficits from private investors rather than relying on central banks.  The increase in supply of bonds on a global scale to institutional investors runs into trillions of US Dollars over the next few years, made worse by the fact that Governments are now relaxing their fiscal straightjackets, imposed after the financial crisis.
The trade war has barely just begun, and yet significant ripple effects are already being felt all across the U.S. economy.  Once thriving businesses are on the verge of failure, workers are being laid off, and some sectors of the economy are witnessing enormous price hikes.  Right now the mainstream media is absolutely fixated on the drama surrounding the recently concluded Trump-Putin summit meeting, but the consequences of this trade war will ultimately be far more important for the lives of most ordinary Americans.  As more tariffs continue to be implemented, this will perhaps be the biggest disruption to the global economic system that we have seen in decades.  Perhaps you have not been affected personally yet, but for many Americans this trade war has changed everything.  For example, just consider the plight of soybean farmer Tim Bardole… Read More
In my News and Views from the Nefarium last Thursday (Jan 11th), I prefaced my remarks about the Franco-Chinese summit by pointing out that these past two weeks have seen some strange stories, stories suggesting that while the war between the great powers for hegemony may not have gone hot, it's at least much warmer than before. For example, in the space of a few days, we've seen (1) the US launch, and as quickly lose, a classified space satellite; (2) ships colliding in the Aegean Sea and in the Persian Gulf, and (3) Russia shoot down over a dozen drones which it claims "Syrian militants" shot at Russian bases. Read More
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/Merchandise Trade Deficit Largest Trade Deficit on RecordToday's rally had to overlook the bad news that came out today. I was watching CNBC this morning just before the news was announced and the anchor said, "We've got a lot of news coming out at 8:30 and I ...…

A more intelligent approach is to have assets like U.S. Treasuries during a bear market for U.S. equities.  Some short positions in the most popular funds are more aggressive and also will usually be profitable.  In the first year of a bear market for U.S. equities, commodity producers and emerging markets often outperform as they have already been doing since January 20, 2016 and which will likely continue through some point in 2018.
“Excess liquidity usually leads to the misallocation of capital, masking any balance sheet constrains. As this tide of excess liquidity recedes, it reveals the misallocation of capital and the mispricing of risk,” Nedbank CIB strategists Neels Heyneke and Mehul Daya write in a note. And this is particularly the case for excess dollar-liquidity in the Emerging Markets (EMs).
Murphy also included the District of Columbia in his research, and found it had a psychopathy level far higher than any other state. But this finding is an outlier, as Murphy notes, as it’s an entirely urban area and cannot be fairly compared with larger, more geographically diverse, US states. That said, as Murphy notes, “The presence of psychopaths in District of Columbia is consistent with the conjecture found in Murphy (2016) that psychopaths are likely to be effective in the political sphere.”
A major difference between the current bear market and the long bear market of the 1970s is the economic environment. During the 1970s, the growth rate of productivity fell by nearly half, while inflation reached double-digits. These factors contributed significantly to the poor performance of the stock market during that period. However, during the current bear market, productivity has held up well, while inflation is not seen to be a significant threat in the near future. In hindsight, it is clear that the sharp decline in the stock market over the past two years was driven in large measure by excessive optimism in the value of high technology to the economy, at least in the near term. This zeal likely contributed to a period of overinvestment by businesses, particularly in the computer and telecommunications sectors, which suffered substantially in the last recession and have been slow to recover. However, the long-run benefits of technological innovation to the economy should be a positive factor for corporate equities, particularly if inflation remains low. If this proves to be true, households should begin to weight stocks more heavily in their asset holdings, making it unlikely that we will see a replay of the protracted bear market of the 1970s.
The probability of repayment as promised is often determined by an independent reviewer, or "rating agency". The three main rating agencies for municipal bonds in the United States are Standard & Poor's, Moody's, and Fitch. These agencies can be hired by the issuer to assign a bond rating, which is valuable information to potential bond holders that helps sell bonds on the primary market.
As the bull market of the 1990s has turned into the bear market of the (early) 2000s, households have sharply reversed their more than decade-long trend of increasing their share of assets held in stocks. On balance, households have reallocated their assets away from stocks and toward tangible real assets, such as housing and other durable goods, as well as toward safe liquid financial assets, including cash, bank deposits, and money market mutual funds.
Globalization has lost its political support, and that raises an important question about the future of the global economy. If globalization has fallen out of favor with large swaths of the voting public, what does the future look like for the American-led order which has promoted economic liberalization and liberal values around the world since the end of WWII?
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebookhttps://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/Fed Responsible for Most Recent Move UpI think what's really responsible for this most recent move up is the Fed comments. Now maybe Trump can take credit for those, maybe President Trump was able to get Jerome Powell's mind right after all, when it comes to ra ...…

Interest rate rises remain a key reason for a bear market, though there is a greater danger when they are unexpected. In its analysis on U.S. bear markets since 1929, looking at 10 major bear markets since 1929, JP Morgan Asset Management offered three other potential causes for a bear market: recession, commodity spike and extreme valuations. Of these, recession and commodity prices are more influential than extreme valuations.
The methods and procedures by which municipal debt is issued are governed by an extensive system of laws and regulations, which vary by state. Most bonds bear interest at either a fixed or variable rate of interest, which can be subject to a cap known as the maximum legal limit; some bonds may be issued solely at an original issue discount, or 0% coupon. If a bond measure is proposed in a local election, a Tax Rate Statement may be provided to voters, detailing best estimates of the tax rate required to levy and fund the bond. In cases where no election is held, depending on applicable local law, voters may be entitled to petition the approval to referendum (i.e., a public vote) within a specified period of time; bonds are typically not issued prior to the expiration of any such referendum period.
In addition, during World War II, the Empire of Japan considered wildfires as a possible weapon. During the spring of 1942, Japanese submarines surfaced near the coast of Santa Barbara, California, and fired shells that exploded on an oil field, very close to the Los Padres National Forest. U.S. planners hoped that if Americans knew how wildfires would harm the war effort, they would work with the Forest Service to eliminate the threat.[7][16] The Japanese military renewed their wildfire strategy late in the war: from November 1944 to April 1945, launching some 9,000 fire balloons into the jet stream, with an estimated 11% reaching the U.S.[23] In the end the balloon bombs caused a total of six fatalities: five school children and their teacher, Elsie Mitchell, who were killed by one of the bombs near Bly, Oregon, on May 5, 1945.[24] A memorial was erected at what today is called the Mitchell Recreation Area.
Circular 230 disclaimer: To ensure compliance with requirements imposed by the IRS, we inform you that any U.S. federal tax advice contained in this website or the ideas contained herein (including any exhibits, PDF’s, calculation images) is not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used, for the purpose of (i) avoiding penalties under the Internal Revenue Code or (ii) promoting, marketing or recommending to another party any transaction or matter addressed herein.
Now the Bruce and Nellie Ohr syory is actually funny and a complete novel yet it digs to the heart and the real meat of the deep tentacles these rascals were using… The Ohr story is the best proof yet and I will never believe Sessions and company did not know all this long ago. Like before he recused……These people are like impacted infected wisdom teeth that need pulling and maybe cracking with a hammer first to get it all out….
Trade-related uncertainties between the United States and its major trading partners have kept investors on the edge, as a potential trade war could have negative implications on global economic growth. The grilling of tech executives by U.S. lawmakers increases volatility. At the same time, a stock bear signal hits a four-decade high, while a sub-4% unemployment rate indicates that a recession is not far off. 

Or perhaps more accurately these blogs are the counterpoint. The Conservative “bias” (perspective) is clearly stated up front. The so-called “main stream media” feigns objectivity but is a propaganda tool of the Left/Democrat Party/Communists/Socialists. I don’t know if there is a source that is truly “objective” (everyone has a point of view). At least here at TCTH facts are laid out & source material is provided & one can dig as deeply as they want into the rabbit hole. We are not spoon fed drivel like the “MSM” provide for the useful idiots who believe they get the straight story from straight shooters.
The most recent drop puts stock prices, even after more than two weeks of losses, only back to where they were in July of this year. And yet, we may be much closer to panic territory than it appears. Based on valuations, all it would take for stocks to enter a bear market would be a 5 percent drop in the S&P 500 from here. At the low on Tuesday, when the S&P 500 was down 60 points, the market was within 90 points of that threshold.

Key to remember here, one must understand that they are actually in a fight. Then one must identify both danger, as well as targets of opportunity. After that, the trader can adapt to the new environment. Do not even worry about overcoming market adversity. One overcomes naturally once properly adjusting to these new conditions. You will not know that you have overcome until you already have.

That head of state, President Tsai Ing-Wen placed a congratulatory phone call to President-elect Trump after his election in December of 2016. The acceptance of that phone call made headlines at the time. On Monday, news broke that the USS Antietam, a guided missile cruiser, and the USS Curtis Wright, a guided missile destroyer, had traversed their way through the Taiwan Straight.
JOIN PETER at the New Orleans Investment Conferencehttps://neworleansconference.com/conference-schedule/NAFTA was the Worst Deal in World History?I want to talk about Donald Trump's new trade deal. When Donald Trump was running for President, he said that NAFTA (North America Free Trade Agreement) was the worst trade deal ever negotiated ever b ...…
Well Danny – let me tell you something. There are many, many other people out there who are intelligent and REFUSE TO BE TAKEN TO THE CLEANERS. Real estate is WAY overpriced in many areas, so if you say that we basically “need to pay at least 97% of the asking price,” I say you are the epitome of an UN-professional. You do not have the best interests of you buyers at heart. You only have your own selfish interests in mind.
After appointing a municipal advisor, bond issuers recruit a syndicate of legal professionals to serve as the financing team's bond counsel. The counsel works to verify the legal details of the issuance and ensure that the issuing agency is complying with all applicable laws and regulations. As the formal legal advisor for the deal team, the bond counsel will typically draft core documentation relating to bonds, including loan agreements, indentures, and other critical documents. Along these lines, the bond counsel is also tasked with reviewing and advising on any legal issues that might arise, and interpreting how tax laws affect the issuance. For instance, the bond counsel will decide if an issuance is exempt from state or federal taxes.[12]
A bear market occurs when the major indices continue to go lower over time. They will hit new lows. More important, their highs will be lower than before as well. The average length of a bear market is 367 days. The conventional wisdom says it usually lasts 18 months. Bear markets occurred 32 times between 1900 and 2008, with an average duration of 367 days. They typically happened once every three years.

RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebookhttps://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/Fed Responsible for Most Recent Move UpI think what's really responsible for this most recent move up is the Fed comments. Now maybe Trump can take credit for those, maybe President Trump was able to get Jerome Powell's mind right after all, when it comes to ra ...…
In 1952, the songwriters Steve Nelson and Jack Rollins had a successful song named "Smokey the Bear" which was performed by Eddy Arnold.[10] The pair said "the" was added to Smokey's name to keep the song's rhythm.[11] During the 1950s, that variant of the name became widespread both in popular speech and in print, including at least one standard encyclopedia, though Smokey Bear's name never officially changed.[12] A 1955 book in the Little Golden Books series was called Smokey the Bear and he calls himself by this name in the book. It depicted him as an orphaned cub rescued in the aftermath of a forest fire, which loosely follows Smokey Bear's true story. From the beginning, his name was intentionally spelled differently from the adjective "smoky".
Boneparth said that, based on his recent moves, the most likely explanation for the surge into bond funds is rebalancing. "We've been watching 5 to 10 percent of portfolios that have created built- in risk over the past few years and now are moving out of equities and back into fixed income," he said. "You're probably seeing a lot of that take place at the retail level."

Although Jeffrey manages one of the world’s largest bond funds, he is an independent thinker who has courage and conviction in his beliefs—maybe because he comes out of left field. Jeffrey holds degrees in mathematics and philosophy from Dartmouth College and was once the lead for a new-wave rock band, back when Paul Volcker had me paying 18% interest on that loan.


I think the bottom line is that the hot market is Trump Bashing stories. Pursuing a story that might vindicate him or show him to be the victim of an abusive Obama Administration would bring down the thunder of the entire Left and it would mean basically having to admit that they’ve been butt kissing enablers for the past 2 presidential terms, and that their defenses of Obama and Hillary were really just the soft bigotry of lowered expectations because they were so focused on ‘first woman’ and ‘first black man’ without bothering to listen to what either of them actually said. The cognitive dissonance would then cause the entire left side of the political spectrum of the US to collapse under it’s own weight. Think Inception.
The mirage that we are still in a strong bull market, and not on the brink of a bear one, has more to do with this year’s fast-rising earnings than a sharply falling stock market, which is typically what leads investors to run for safety. The classic definition of a bear market is when a stock market average such as the Dow or the S&P 500 has dropped 20 percent from its highs. But that’s probably not the best one. The more important factor to consider when gauging whether investors are feeling upbeat about stocks, and, by extension, the economy, is what they are willing to pay for the earnings that those companies generate.
After a period of excellent returns since 2008, Gilts will no longer be a profitable investment and those investors that ventured into Gilts as a way of increasing income from cash could get a nasty surprise when they realise how sensitive Gilt prices are to changes in yield.  With the 10 year yield at just 1.3% compared to an inflation rate of 3.1%, those investors are already suffering a loss in real terms.  But if we get an adjustment back to a positive real yield, the capital loss will be extremely damaging to prices.  For long dated securities, losses could be in excess of 20% for a movement in yield of just 1% and that would be just the start of the adjustment.  That recovery period could stretch into years.
Bear markets are inevitable, and you have to be willing to endure them in exchange for the opportunity to get life-changing wealth from your investments during the stock market's upward moves. Fortunately, there are ways to prepare for bear markets that can make it easier to get through them when they hit. You can even boost your overall returns if you're willing to use some smart investment strategies that others may be too fearful to use.
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There are many people who don't agree with these bears. PIMCO analyst Joachim Fels, for one, finds a recession to be unlikely over the next 12 months, Barron's reports. However, he adds that a global recession within the next five years has a 70% probability, based on history. Barron's also notes that the forecasting prowess of Jim Rogers and Marc Faber is questionable. They have been wrongly bearish for years, and those who followed their advice in the recent past would have missed out on the bull market. Additionally, Barron's notes that Nobel Prize winning economist Robert Shiller of Yale University, whose models indicate an overpriced market, nonetheless believes that stocks may climb yet higher. (For more, see also: Stocks Could Rise 50%, Says Yale's Shiller.)
Dick Meyer of NPR believes that "the idea of blaming one person for the downfall of the economy with a gross domestic product of about $14 trillion, powered by 300 million people and engaged in complex global commerce is nuts — whether that person is Bush, Obama, Alan Greenspan, Bernard Madoff, Osama bin Laden or the editors of opinions at The Wall Street Journal."[14]
During the bear market a heavy debate ensued as to whose fault the falling market was. The political parties were heavily divided during this period.[10] For the most part there were three camps: ones that simply blamed the economy, others that wanted to pin the passing Bush Administration and others that wanted to push the blame on the newly arriving Obama Administration.
Yet, Karen is only one of the brilliant minds that you’ll get exposed to and have the chance to meet at the SIC. It’s going to be an intellectually thrilling event, and I hope you can be there with me to experience it firsthand. To learn more about attending the SIC 2018, and about the other speakers who will be there, I encourage you to click here.
Sometimes bear markets happen because the market decides economic fundamentals simply can't support stock prices. An example is the post-2000 U.S. bear market, when the Internet and telecom bubbles burst. And sometimes it's because economic facts change in ways that make investors change their mind: the 2007-2009 bear market, as the housing market tanked, is the best recent example.
I am primarily a value investor. For me, the algorithms serve as a way to monitor whether my view about valuations is becoming accepted by other market participants. As I have mentioned, I believed earlier this year that we were in the late stage of a cyclical bull market. The markets are finally agreeing and turning the late-cycle bull into an early cycle bear.
syn: bear, stand, endure refer to supporting the burden of something distressing, irksome, or painful. bear is the general word and suggests merely being able to put up with something: She is bearing the disappointment quite well. stand is an informal equivalent, but with an implication of stout spirit: I couldn't stand the pain. endure implies continued resistance and patience over a long period of time: to endure torture.
The golden Colossus of Trump looms over the national scene this summer like one of Jeff Koons’s giant, shiny, balloon-puppy sculptures — a monumental expression of semiotic vacancy. At the apogee of Trumpdom, everything’s coming up covfefe. The stock market is 5000 points ahead since 1/20/17. Little Rocket Man is America’s bitch. We’re showing those gibbering Asian hordes and European café layabouts a thing or two about fair trade. Electric cars are almost here to save the day. And soon, American youth will be time-warping around the solar system in the new US Space Corps! Read More
The “Title I” designation as a foreign agent applied retroactively to any action taken by Mr. Page, and auto-generates an exponential list of other people he came in contact with.  Each of those people, groups or organizations could now have their communication reviewed, unmasked and analyzed by the DOJ/FBI with the same surveillance authority granted upon the target, Mr. Page.
After only a month and a half in office, in a media blitz including press conferences, interviews and public appearances, President Obama, Federal Reserve chair Ben Bernanke,[35][36] Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation chair Sheila Bair[37][38] and Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner[39] rolled out the details of numerous plans to tackle various elements of the economy, and began putting those plans into action. Mortgage rates for homeowners dropped, limits on executive compensation were enacted, regulatory changes were proposed, and the Treasury announced its intention to purchase $1 trillion of troubled bank assets, such as the aforementioned derivatives, and enticing private investors to join them in making similar investments.[40]

Last week more than a handful of subscribers alerted me to Jim Rickards’ beliefthat China has pegged the SDR (an IMF reserve currency) Gold price from 850-950 SDR/oz and this is what is impacting the Gold price. Rickards writes that the peg is too cheap given the scarce supply of Gold and that the IMF will print trillions of SDRs during the next global financial crisis. Read More


Unlike new issue stocks that are brought to market with price restrictions until the deal is sold, most municipal bonds are free to trade at any time once they are purchased by the investor. Professional traders regularly trade and re-trade the same bonds several times a week. A feature of this market is a larger proportion of smaller retail investors compared to other sectors of the U.S. securities markets. Some municipal bonds, often with higher risk credits, are issued subject to transfer restrictions.
The bear markets of the last 50 years have had many different causes. Sometimes it's an external shock, often caused by politics—the 1973-74 correction set off by the rise of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is an example, as is a 1990 bear market set off by Iraq's invasion of Kuwait. So, too, was the 1982 bear instigated by the Federal Reserve, which raised interest rates to punishing levels in a successful bid to crush inflation.

A municipal bond, commonly known as a Muni Bond, is a bond issued by a local government or territory, or one of their agencies. It is generally used to finance public projects such as roads, schools, airports and seaports, and infrastructure-related repairs.[1] The term municipal bond is commonly used in the United States, which has the largest market of such trade-able securities in the world. As of 2011, the municipal bond market was valued at $3.7 trillion.[2] Potential issuers of municipal bonds include states, cities, counties, redevelopment agencies, special-purpose districts, school districts, public utility districts, publicly owned airports and seaports, and other governmental entities (or group of governments) at or below the state level having more than a de minimis amount of one of the three sovereign powers: the power of taxation, the power of eminent domain or the police power.[3]
The accompanying chart shows the losses of the median newsletter’s model portfolio in the 1987, 2000-02, and 2007-09 bear markets. For context, consider that the average bear market since 1900 has produced a 31% loss for the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +1.46% The median newsletter’s losses in those more recent three bear markets have been minus 23%, minus 28%, and minus 43%, respectively.
The “agreement” Ramsey sees comes from a number of major equity indexes hitting new highs at the same time. Not only have the Dow DJIA, +1.46% S&P 500 SPX, +1.55% Nasdaq COMP, +2.06% and Russell 2000 RUT, +1.21%  been hitting repeated records of late, but so have a number of closely watched sectors, including transports DJT, +1.04% utilities DJU, +0.59%  (which hit a record in September), and financials XLF, +2.08% which are trading at a 10-year high.

I think the above answers the question, the real economy is gone. Everything, including services can be done abroad or in-shored into cheaper markets (see N Carolina, Texas, etc). Thus, this mile high RE market, Boston to DC or San Fran to LA/SD, is simply not sustainable w/o a lot of foreign investors catching the knife in these post-bubble years.
Then with a different data set, Odean [1999] finds that “the securities individual investors buy subsequently underperform those they sell. When he controls for liquidity demands, tax-loss selling, rebalancing, and changes in risk aversion, investors’ timing of trades is even worse. This result suggests that not only are investors too willing to act on too little information, but they are too willing to act when they are wrong.
I don't believe Clancy actually wrote this book. It isn't like his prior Ryan books. It's over 1000 pages, and if you deleted all the "f" words, it probably would have been 100 pages shorter. Not having references to sex and whores/prostitutes could have cut another 100 pages. He could have been just fine not adding useless filler to demonstrate his knowledge of history. I had a hard time even getting interested in it and almost gave up about 10 chapters into it. It finally did pick up and I stayed the course, despite multiple typo errors and repeated statements in different parts of the book. Evidently, even the editors couldn't get through it all. Very disappointing. I ordered two more of the books in the series at the same time and really hope they are much better (written by Greany). Of the 13 books that I have read of the Ryan/Ryan JR/Clark series of books, this is the first one I've given a negative rating on, as I normally love his books.
Dennis Slothower has been leading a small but profitable group of investors to some extraordinary profits in both good markets and bad over the course of a 38+ year investment career, starting as a stock broker in 1979. In 2011 Dennis was named the top performer by Hulbert Financial Digest for avoiding the Crash of 2008. Now, he is bringing his extensive experience to the public through Outsider Club, Stealth Stocks Daily Alert, and Wall Street's Underground Profits. For more about Dennis, check out his editor page.

Like the Doctor, I think home prices are resetting to fundamentals. When you lose your equity suddenly you don’t care if prices fall another 30 to 40 percent. With this growing contingent of negative equity homeslaves approaching critical mass you may see the following solution arise to reset home prices so our economy can regain its stability as people will have more money available for other parts of their budget that is now being confiscated for the Too Big To Fails.
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on iTunes!U.S. GDP Growth Reported at 4.1%Today we finally got the highly anticipated first look at U.S. economic growth, or really GDP growth, because the GDP is not that great a barometer of the economy. Nonetheless, thats the one that everybody uses to measure it, and that's the one that we're going to talk about ...…

The primary reason why stock prices have been soaring in recent months is because corporations have been buying back their own stock at an unprecedented pace.  In fact, the pace of stock buybacks is nearly double what it was at this time last year.  According to Goldman Sachs, S&P 500 companies spent 384 billion dollars buying back stock during the first half of 2018.  That is an absolutely astounding number.  And in many cases, corporations are going deep into debt in order to do this.  Of course this is going to push up stock prices, but corporate America will not be able to inflate this bubble indefinitely.  At some point a credit crunch will come, and the pace of stock buybacks will fall precipitously. Read More

In late 2018, the bad economic news just keeps rolling in.  At a time when consumer confidence is absolutely soaring, the underlying economic numbers are clearly telling us that enormous problems are right around the corner.  Of course this is usually what happens just before a major economic downturn.  Most people in the general population feel like the party can go on for quite a while longer, but meanwhile the warning signs just keep becoming more and more obvious.  I have been hearing from people that truly believe that the economy is “strong”, but if the U.S. economy really was in good shape would new vehicle sales be “collapsing”?… Read More


Editor's Note: It is unusual for "the Bear" to focus on non-financial issues. This story is revelant to your financial survival because of the depth of depravity that, not only Dees, but most, if not all of his associates participate. The Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) is a left wing control group that, in 2004, accused yours truely of running the only one man terrorist organization in the United States.
In recent months the wave of sovereign gold repatriation has continued as Turkey and Hungary have been added to the list of nations requesting their gold back. But now the interest in gold is even spreading into the mainstream investment fund sector, as recently “Bond King” Jeffrey Gundlach has added himself to the list of investors who are bullish on gold.
Has anything actually changed in the past two weeks? The conventional bullish answer is no, nothing's changed; the global economy is growing virtually everywhere, inflation is near-zero, credit is abundant, commodities will remain cheap for the foreseeable future, assets are not in bubbles, and the global financial system is in a state of sustainable wonderfulness.

In practice, a combination of these factors will often be at work. Investors tolerate high valuations in a benign economic environment. Bear markets will often begin after a period where investors have suspended their disbelief – the technology bubble being the notable example – but there often needs to be a catalyst for investors to recognise that over-valuation. This might be a political crisis, a currency devaluation – or a trade war?


But what about your question?  What if the weight of the evidence leans toward the market rolling over into a full-fledged bear market (-20% or more drop in value)?  After all, it happens every 7-10 years and the average market crash is right around -42%.  Who wants to participate in watching their hard-earned retirement portfolio lose almost half its value?!
Swing Trading means scaling-out of over-bought  and overvalued assets, to enable buying back-in at lower prices. Exceptional Bear's strategy strives to  reduce average cost and risk, while continually compounding profit.  By anticipating, and positioning ahead of the herd, the market often comes to us. Swing Trading the right asset classes is the essence of managing a recession-proof and depression-proof portfolio. In the likely event of a Crash, this low-risk strategy will "make" a relatively few investors for a lifetime, while the vast majority of former investors will be broken for a lifetime. 

Your correct. Lump into the mix of policies coming out of Sacramento and DC. RE in California is in for another leg down starting this summer. Problem will be even worse if QE is halted by the Fed. Any upward trend in home prices may start happening in the 2015-2020 time frame. The toxic sludge that was the no mortgage down to minimal down is still in the system. As long as that is the case, kiss any correction goodbye.


Winning Tip: Your financial aid appeal letter must present a precise narrative with numerical support, and include  properly identified appropriate documentation (i.e. no credit card receipts) motivating the Financial Aid Office to lower your Expected Family Contribution (EFC). A lower EFC increases your family’s financial need which usually provides more financial assistance.
It often happens that gold and silver prices hit low points in June and December, before rallying sharply. The reason is not hard to understand: traders at the bullion banks close their books at the year and half-year ends and are almost certainly instructed by their superiors to reduce their trading positions to as low a level as possible. This is because the banks wish to report balance sheets that reflect low risk exposure for the purpose of making regulatory returns. Read More

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RATE AND REVIEW this podcasthttps://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/What About Employers' Day?Labor Day is coming up on Monday it it annoys me that we just have a Labor Day and we don't have an Entrepreneur Day. We don't have a day to celebrate the employer. Why is that? The entrepreneurs are the unsung heroes of the American economy. I'm ...…
There has never been a more fiscally clueless team at the top than the Donald and his dimwitted Treasury secretary, Simple Steve Mnuchin. After reading the latter's recent claim that financing Uncle Sam's impending trillion dollar deficits will be a breeze, we now understand how he sat on the Board of Sears for 10-years and never noticed that the company was going bankrupt.
A few days after we reported that the investment vehicle of Sweden's most powerful family, the Wallenbergs, has begun preparations for the next global crisis, concerns about the future have spread to one of China's largest state-backed asset manager which runs about HK$139 billion ($18 billion) in assets, and which said it was preparing to sell shares in as many as 30 stocks on concern that valuations worldwide have peaked. Read More
One of the primary reasons municipal bonds are considered separately from other types of bonds is their special ability to provide tax-exempt income. Interest paid by the issuer to bond holders is often exempt from gross income for federal income tax purposes, as well as state or local taxes depending on the state in which the issuer is located, subject to certain restrictions. Bonds issued for certain purposes are subject to the alternative minimum tax as an item of tax preference.[1]
The first part of my answer is technical, what do the charts show. Well, a normal 50% DJIA retracement of its big gains from January 2016 to January 2018 would take this index down to 21070 and exactly fulfill the minimum requirement of a bear market, i.e. that the DJI falls 20%. The DJI now stands a little above 23500, about 12% down from its peak.
A lot of people are shocked by how rapidly things are beginning to move.  The U.S. economy is slowing down at a pace that we haven’t seen since the last recession, and this is something that I have been tracking extensively.  But now the slowdown is so obvious that even some of the biggest names in the mainstream media are talking about it.  For example, just take a look at what Jim Cramer of CNBC is saying.  For a long time, he was touting how well the U.S. economy was doing, but now his tune has completely changed.  According to Cramer, a lot of corporate executives have “told me about how quickly things have cooled”, and he says that many of them are shocked because this “wasn’t supposed to occur so soon”… Read More

U.S. bonds have not fallen like this since Donald Trump’s stunning election victory in November 2016.  Could this be a sign that big trouble is on the horizon for the stock market?  It seems like bonds have been in a bull market forever, but now suddenly bond yields are spiking to alarmingly high levels.  On Wednesday, the yield on 30 year U.S. bonds rose to the highest level since September 2014, the yield on 10 year U.S. bonds rose to the highest level since June 2011, and the yield on 5 year bonds rose to the highest level since October 2008. Read More
       We hope to buy a 2,000 sq., Ft., or larger single story, move in ready, single family residence with Good Bones and plenty of yard ( acres ) with privacy, (no Tracts or busy streets) and must be quiet area. We want to live modestly and without the cost and hassles of Mella Roos, HOAs or the many City ordinances. A ranch or farm land preferred. We hope to move once and to stay for at least 10 to 15 years before we retire, then move out of the area for good.
A Free-Thinker – someone whose mind is not bound by any chain, free to explore the great abyss unhindered by fear, emotion, or ideology. In reality, it is outside the box free-thinkers, who are the engines of social change and ingenuity, often leading society into new directions not yet seen before. They represent a voice of authenticity and uniqueness in a world that is all too filled with conformity and linear thinking. While the achievements are applauded by future generations, in the present they are often looked down upon, feared, laughed at, and even seen as crazy for their unique perspectives on life. It is often a lonely road for that of a truly unleashed free-thinker. Read More
2019 is shaping up to be the year in which all the policies that worked in the past will no longer work. As we all know, the Global Financial Meltdown / recession of 2008-09 was halted by the coordinated policies of the major central banks, which lowered interest rates to near-zero, bought trillions of dollars of bonds and iffy assets such as mortgage-backed securities, and issued unlimited lines of credit to insolvent banks, i.e. unlimited liquidity.
When a brushland, woodland, or forested area is not affected by fire for a long period, large quantities of flammable leaves, branches and other organic matter tend to accumulate on the forest floor and above in brush thickets. When a forest fire eventually does occur, the increased fuel creates a crown fire, which destroys all vegetation and affects surface soil chemistry. Frequent and small 'natural' ground fires prevent the accumulation of fuel and allow large, slow-growing vegetation (e.g. trees) to survive.
It isn’t going to be a surprise when U.S. stock prices fall 50, 60 or 70 percent from where they are today.  The only real surprise is that it took this long for it to happen.  Even after falling 362 points on Tuesday, the Dow Jones industrial average is still ridiculously high.  In fact, the only two times in our entire history when stocks have been this overvalued were right before the stock market crash of 1929 and right before the dotcom bubble burst.  Not even before the financial crisis of 2008 were stock valuations as absurd as they are right now. Read More
“Furthermore, in the main, historians educated as Keynesians and monetarists do not understand the economic history of money, let alone the difference between a gold standard and a gold-exchange standard. These similar sounding monetary systems must be defined and the differences between them noted, for anyone to have the slimmest chance of understanding this vital subject, and its relevance to the situation today…
buying a home under the illusion that home prices always rises was an essential element in the RE easy money game but now that assumption is no longer considered a universal truth as a result the easy money RE game has now developed some serious air pockets in housing prices. Inventory levels,jobs and income levels all play vital parts in creating home prices but at the end of the day if you are not convinced that the home will increase in value (price) over time then the buying decision becomes more complex and everyone impacted by the buying decision generally will not want to lose money! even the wife!!!!!!
Dennis Slothower has been leading a small but profitable group of investors to some extraordinary profits in both good markets and bad over the course of a 38+ year investment career, starting as a stock broker in 1979. In 2011 Dennis was named the top performer by Hulbert Financial Digest for avoiding the Crash of 2008. Now, he is bringing his extensive experience to the public through Outsider Club, Stealth Stocks Daily Alert, and Wall Street's Underground Profits. For more about Dennis, check out his editor page.
The biggest of all BIGGER story aspects to the HPSCI Memo, in all coverage, has been overlooked by all Main Stream Media.  The Department of Justice FBI FISA request was for “Title I” surveillance authority.  This is not some innocuous request for metadata exploration – the FBI said American citizen Carter Page was a “foreign agent of a hostile foreign government”; the FBI was calling Carter Page a spy.
Given how these things normally work, I’d imagine there will be a few false scares and then a tipping point at which there’s an identifiable panic. I would think that would be caused either by a few significant inflation surprises, or something more dramatic that I haven’t thought of (perhaps a big buyer of US Treasuries really does turn around and do something unexpected).
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