As I mentioned last week, I no longer feel that it is prudent or productive to discuss solutions to our economic woes. The problems that we already, or are about to face are no longer solvable. The system has been damaged to such an extent, that it cannot be fixed. The series of events that is responsible for the deterioration, decimation and decay of our economic system has already occurred. The genie, so to speak, cannot be put back in the bottle. Therefore, I think we should focus on strategies that might enable us to adapt and adjust in a manner that will allow the reset to be as painless as possible. Read More
It is human nature to allow emotions such as fear, greed and egotism get in the way. Overconfidence is one of the biggest killers of portfolios. Barber and Odean in a 2000 paper show that “after accounting for trading costs, individual investors underperform relevant benchmarks. Those who trade the most realize, by far, the worst performance. This is what the models of overconfident investors predict” (http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu...)
But… with so many stocks that were overvalued at the start of the year… it’s understandable that many were selling to take some profit. But the last couple weeks have been an over reaction (as with Amazon, FB, etc…along with the uncertainty with China…fyi: China is well aware that they’ve been trading on our market and paying way too little of their fair share of tariffs for way too long. So… I’m certain there will be some sort of compromise to continue trade). But… all this has caused the amateur investor to panic lately and resulted in a greater sell off than what many companies deserve. A logical investor/trader will research and understand the fundamentals of the companies he/she is invested in and know their worth (yes… some companies are still overvalued… ) but the pajama trader should never sell in a panic. If they do, then they should sell and stay out of the Market altogether. Because this has been just a vicious Market Correction as of late… but it’s not a Bear Market. The unemployment rate is too low and the economy is gaining strength overall…and the stock market is far from euphoric. If you’re young you always have time on your side for recovering on any losses. If you’re over 60 consider buying some well valued companies who pay good dividends (but, be careful, don’t fall for those ridiculously high dividend stocks like 7% and higher… they’re often paying a high dividend to entice people to invest in what is probably a failing company.) A 3% dividend can really be a nice way to earn income while waiting for a company to rebound in the stock market.
“The distinction [between globalization and technology] is arbitrary. What distinguishes the technological revolution is precisely that things like iPhones could be designed in California but made in China. The paradox of the Liberal International Order is that it made a lot of technology affordable, while at the same time destroying manufacturing jobs.”
Bear markets are inevitable, and you have to be willing to endure them in exchange for the opportunity to get life-changing wealth from your investments during the stock market's upward moves. Fortunately, there are ways to prepare for bear markets that can make it easier to get through them when they hit. You can even boost your overall returns if you're willing to use some smart investment strategies that others may be too fearful to use.
(Kitco News) - Gold prices are down and hit another six-month low in early-afternoon U.S. trading Thursday. However, prices have moved up from their daily lows. An appreciating U.S. dollar on the foreign exchange market continues to squelch buying interest in the precious metals. However, the gold market is now short-term oversold and due for a least a decent corrective upside bounce very soon, and perhaps as early as Friday. August Comex gold futures were last down $3.60 an ounce at $1,270.80. July Comex silver was last up $0.011 at $16.32 an ounce.
RATE AND REVIEW this podcasthttps://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/What About Employers' Day?Labor Day is coming up on Monday it it annoys me that we just have a Labor Day and we don't have an Entrepreneur Day. We don't have a day to celebrate the employer. Why is that? The entrepreneurs are the unsung heroes of the American economy. I'm ...…
Griffin’s book is a humdinger and will certainly upset brainwashed American super-patriots, but it throughly documents how Washington’s aggression toward other lands is covered up by politicians, media, and court historians with moral verbiage. In my view the hubris, arrogance, and ignorance of “American exceptionism” has the world locked on a trajectory to its extinction in nuclear Armageddon. Read More
2015–16 stock market selloff 18 August 2015 The Dow Jones fell 588 points during a two-day period, 1,300 points from August 18–21. On Monday, August 24, world stock markets were down substantially, wiping out all gains made in 2015, with interlinked drops in commodities such as oil, which hit a six-year price low, copper, and most of Asian currencies, but the Japanese yen, losing value against the United States dollar. With this plunge, an estimated ten trillion dollars had been wiped off the books on global markets since June 3.   
Pension funds need an annual average of 6,6% income growth to pay for their promises. Over the last decade, they are getting less than 0,5%. Millions of retirees need to cover for this shortfall in their pension funds, and sell their financial assets, littl by little. It will become structural and widespread, as demographics will further strengthen in this direction (more retirees needing additional funds, and less working people saving for retirement).
Research from Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff shows that when a country’s government debt-to-GDP ratio stays over 90% for more than five years, its economy loses around one-third of its growth rate. Lacy also points out that “the longer the debt overhang persists, the relationship between economic growth and debt becomes nonlinear.” This is happening to the US today with the economy growing at only half its long-term growth rate.
That was the slogan used by then-presidential candidate Donald Trump and it propelled him to the most powerful and coveted job in the world – commander in chief of the United States. However, since Trump’s inauguration there has been much blustering and many unpopular policies that don’t seem to have been made with the promise of making America great again.
Confidence and complacency are more acute now than any time I’ve seen before. All expressions of overvaluation are at historical extremes. Despite this, most money managers remain in the market. The thesis is “if it’s going up, regardless of anything else, I want to be in it.” Perhaps the best indicator of complacency is the VIX which at its current level of 13 tells us that investors see no reason to protect their positions. Every minor decline is seen as a buying opportunity. The rationale is that the Fed would not allow anything worse than a 10% decline. If the stock market starts sinking between now and October 1st, I will be most interested to see if the Fed eliminates QE.
The best advice I can give is to determine your proper asset allocation, which is one that properly balances your tolerance for risk with your long-term objectives. Stick with it through the good times and bad, and be sure to rebalance periodically if your portfolio drifts significantly from your target asset allocation. If you tend to react to bear markets (after the fact, by definition) by selling stocks, then you should consider hiring a financial advisor whose coaching can help you avoid these actions—they are detrimental to your long-term financial well-being.
Yes, first-quarter gross domestic product projections have fallen after weak readings on retail sales and other key data, but the Fed is confident that any slowdown will be temporary, stating simply that "the economic outlook has strengthened recently". With that, the Fed is acknowledging the strength of the prior three quarters, as well as the likely benefits from the recently enacted tax reform and massive deficit spending.