In his book Nobody Knows Anything, my friend Bob Moriarty wrote about the difference between signal and noise. Unfortunately, much of the information in the gold space or what passes for such is really noise. Conspiracy theories around manipulation, price suppression and China are all too popular while important factors like real interest rates, investment demand and gold’s relationship to equities are neglected. At present the Gold market has experienced a critical breakdown yet in some circles a new theory and explanation is gaining traction.
Two weeks after we reported that GE had found itself locked out of the commercial paper market following downgrades that made it ineligible for most money market investors, the pain has continued, and yesterday General Electric lost just over $5bn in market capitalization. While far less than the $49bn wiped out from AAPL the same day, it was arguably the bigger headline grabber.
Japan urban land prices are back to levels last seen in the 1980s.  You have to ask if there are parallels to our current condition.  The first point we all have to agree on is that both economies had extraordinarily large real estate bubbles.  For the United States the answer to this assumption is a big yes.  We can run off a check list of how our real estate markets run similarities:
The bears of the early 1930s had a mixed fate. Joseph Kennedy, the father of JFK, was appointed the first chairman of the SEC shortly after participating in a bear pool in the stock of Libby Owens Ford. Roosevelt apparently decided he needed a fox to guard the hen coop. Jesse Livermore had a less happy time. He lost an estimated $32 million anticipating a bull market which never arrived. In 1934, Livermore was declared bankrupt. He blew his brains out in the washroom of the Sherry- Netherlands hotel in 1940. The note he left behind, repeated over and over again: “My life has been a failure. My life has been a failure…”

The equity market continues to suffer several months of uncertainty. Predominantly, it’s because of the possibility of a Sino-U.S. trade war in the near term. President Trump recently said that he was “ready to go” on hitting China with an additional $267 billion worth of tariffs. The Trump administration is already finalizing plans to impose tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese products. If these measures are met with retaliatory actions by China, it could lead to a full-on trade conflict, one that could adversely affect global economies and eventually squeeze corporate profits.
At first the effect on the broader economy is minimal, so consumers, companies and governments don’t let a slight uptick in financing costs interfere with their borrowing and spending. But eventually rising rates begin to bite and borrowers get skittish, throwing the leverage machine into reverse and producing an equities bear market and Main Street recession. Read More
First, momentum stocks are not done getting hit. As psychology turns more bearish, fewer investors are willing to bet that trees will grow to the sky at uber-hot (pun intended) public companies like Tesla Motors and Netflix. Each is down roughly 22 percent from 52-week highs. So, investors trying to make quick money should avoid momentum names. Second, timing the bottom of a correction or bear market is next to impossible. Guessing that $100 is the floor for Netflix, for example, is a dicey business; there really is no way to know what other investors are thinking in real time.
Eighth Interest Rate HikeAs expected, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the eighth time, today. The rate is now 2 to 2.25 percent, so I guess the midpoint is 2.125%. The move was highly anticipated, of course, even I expected the Fed to raise rates. At this point I had been expecting that for some time ever since the Fed first began ...…
He remains confident stocks will see a fresh string of new highs in the final months of the year. Referring to history as a guide, Stovall noted that the fourth quarter is pretty strong during midterm election years, and seasonality points to more gains. He believes it will be easy for the S&P to grab another 80 points and break above 3,000 by year-end.
In his book Nobody Knows Anything, my friend Bob Moriarty wrote about the difference between signal and noise. Unfortunately, much of the information in the gold space or what passes for such is really noise. Conspiracy theories around manipulation, price suppression and China are all too popular while important factors like real interest rates, investment demand and gold’s relationship to equities are neglected. At present the Gold market has experienced a critical breakdown yet in some circles a new theory and explanation is gaining traction.
The set of sanctions that the U.S. began placing on Iran back in 2010 can be best thought of as a monetary blockade. It relied on deputizing U.S. banks to act as snitches. Any U.S. bank that was caught providing correspondent accounts to a foreign bank that itself helped Iran engage in sanctioned activities would be fined. To avoid being penalized, U.S. banks threatened their foreign bank customers to stop enabling Iranian payments or lose their accounts. And of course the foreign banks (mostly) complied. Read More
I think I’ve figured it out.  There’s multiple Americas.  I don’t mean North, Central and South.  I mean multiple US of As.  What other explanation could there possibly be.  When I hear a windblown politician, a television yakking head, or the wholly ignorant in the streets making these comments I think:  That’s exactly what should be happening in our country!  That is exactly what I value.  That is exactly who I am.  So, here we rest our weary hearts and minds.  In a standoff across an ever-widening abyss.  An abyss of wayward ideologies, ignorance, directionless baseless hatred, stupidity… multiple Americas. Read More
The $3 trillion that Vanguard has invested in index funds might indicate stability as, according to Vanguard, the best way to invest is to invest in index funds. But such a statement isn’t true at all. The positive performance Vanguard’s index funds have achieved in the last 35 years, which is now the main factor in attracting new funds, is just a result of many factors that has lead the S&P 500 to grow 23 times since 1980.

Having read Crash Proof and many other "Dollar is Doomed" books ..this give a great current synopsis on the happening events ... it is weird to read/hear Mr Schiff and is bolf predictions somehow come true. Even though flight to quality in the 'dollar' has hurt many of Mr. Schiffs investments ('currently') .. his insight on the future for our American way of life makes the book a must read.

The FBI brass must have needed hazmat suits to scrub DOJ Inspector General Michael Horowitz’s report on agency misconduct in the 2016 elections, since the evidence of treason at the highest level of government was abundant. The truth is being hidden, and the result is a fiction representative of something out of Orwell’s ‘1984‘; and so, we must do everything within our power to force the issue in opposition to status quo voices in government and the media, who are not representing the U.S. Constitution and objectives based on our founding virtues, We must hold these criminals, these traitors, in the FBI, the DOJ and elsewhere within the government, accountable for illegally working to prevent Donald Trump from winning the election and afterwards trying to unseat him from power.  Read More
Looking past 2018, the Fed's outlook is even more bearish for the bond market. The central bank boosted by one the number of rate hikes it expects in each of 2019 and 2020. At the same time, its unemployment rate projections were lowered to an eye-popping 3.6 per cent and its inflation estimate rose above its 2 per cent target level, to 2.1 per cent.
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