RATE AND REVIEW this podcast wherever you listen.https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/the-peter-schiff-show-podcast/id404963432?mt=2&ls=1Turkey's Current Account DeficitThe "Turkey baste" continued on Monday, although Tuesday we did have a bit of a reversal, Tuesday bounce in the lira, rising about 7 percent or so, in today's trading. But still, ...…


Sometimes bear markets happen because the market decides economic fundamentals simply can't support stock prices. An example is the post-2000 U.S. bear market, when the Internet and telecom bubbles burst. And sometimes it's because economic facts change in ways that make investors change their mind: the 2007-2009 bear market, as the housing market tanked, is the best recent example.
Beyond all this, there is the impulsiveness of our beloved President Trump who actually does what he says he would do in his campaign. Until the end of January 2018, Wall Street thought he could be controlled and would only do the things they approved of. But Trump has his own agenda. So, now Wall Street has no choice but to worry about a trade war that could easily escalate. Why do you think so many of Trump’s advisors have recently left or been fired? They wanted him to be more cautious. But Trump wanted to keep the faith with his base and put tariffs up on steel, etc. to protect American manufacturing. Never mind, the consequences of Smoot-Hawley in 1930 when Europe was already suffering. N ever mind, the fact that so very much of what we buy in the US now comes from China. We cannot possibly start to make all the things we now import. Never mind, how much consumer prices will rise. And never mind the fact that successful sales of US Treasuries to finance our national debt depends on China. Trump’s economic nationalism is a very abrupt change from the last 30+ years of internationalism. Wall Street has grown rich and fat on such internationalism. Stock prices, especially for the big multi-nationals in the DJIA and the NASDAQ can only make adjustments to Trump’s tariffs by declining. Even if Trump backs away from his tariffs’ plan, Wall Street cannot feel quite safe. Trump has shown he wants to get votes in the “Rust-belt” at Wall Street’s expense. Horrors!
Confidence and complacency are more acute now than any time I’ve seen before. All expressions of overvaluation are at historical extremes. Despite this, most money managers remain in the market. The thesis is “if it’s going up, regardless of anything else, I want to be in it.” Perhaps the best indicator of complacency is the VIX which at its current level of 13 tells us that investors see no reason to protect their positions. Every minor decline is seen as a buying opportunity. The rationale is that the Fed would not allow anything worse than a 10% decline. If the stock market starts sinking between now and October 1st, I will be most interested to see if the Fed eliminates QE.
Throughout the ages, whenever an empire has begun its inevitable collapse, no country has ever woken up and reversed the process. In every case, the government rides the decline to the bottom. And, along the way, a series of policies is invariably undertaken to save those in government in the downward rush. These policies are always at the expense of the populace. Read More
In 1952, after Smokey Bear attracted considerable commercial interest, the Smokey Bear Act, an act of Congress, was passed to remove the character from the public domain and place it under the control of the Secretary of Agriculture. The act provided for the use of Smokey's royalties for continued education on the subject of forest wildfire prevention.
It should be clear to you now, the “unwind” has begun. Jim and I tried to tell you this a couple of months back, now there is absolute evidence. Look at real estate in many parts of the world. Australia, China, London, Vancouver, New York and now even San Francisco. The most important thing to look at is “volume”, as price always follows. Read More

Some may argue that a healthy labor market in the past couple of years in contrast to the dark days of the Great Recession will certainly help the broader market gain traction. After all, the unemployment rate remains below the 4% mark for the past several months, weekly jobless claims touch a 49-year low and wage growth hits the fastest pace since 2009.
When the U.S. economy began to move forward once again, municipal debt continued its momentum, which was maintained well into the early part of the twentieth century. The Great Depression of the 1930s halted growth, although defaults were not as severe as in the 1870s.[7] Leading up to World War II, many American resources were devoted to the military, and prewar municipal debt burst into a new period of rapid growth for an ever-increasing variety of uses. Today, in addition to the 50 states and their local governments (including cities, counties, villages and school districts), the District of Columbia and U.S. territories and possessions (American Samoa, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, and the U.S. virgin Islands) can and do issue municipal bonds. Another important category of municipal bond issuers which includes authorities and special districts has also grown in number and variety in recent years. The two most prominent early authorities were the Port of New York Authority, formed in 1921 and renamed Port Authority of New York and New Jersey in 1972, and the Triborough Bridge Authority (now the Triborough Bridge and Tunnel Authority), formed in 1933. The debt issues of these two authorities are exempt from federal, state and local governments taxes.[8]

To present a methaphor, under Title I FISA authority, Carter Page was essentially ‘patient zero’ in an Ebola pandemic.  Labeling him as a foreign agent allowed the FBI to look at every single person he came in contact with; and every single aspect of their lives and their activities in growing and concentric circles; without limits to current time or historic review.

That definition does not appear in any media outlet before the 1990s, and there has been no indication of who established it. It may be rooted in the experience of October 19, 1987, when the stock market dropped by just over 20% in a single day. Attempts to tie the term to the “Black Monday” story may have resulted in the 20% definition, which journalists and editors probably simply copied from one another.
Unlike new issue stocks that are brought to market with price restrictions until the deal is sold, most municipal bonds are free to trade at any time once they are purchased by the investor. Professional traders regularly trade and re-trade the same bonds several times a week. A feature of this market is a larger proportion of smaller retail investors compared to other sectors of the U.S. securities markets. Some municipal bonds, often with higher risk credits, are issued subject to transfer restrictions.
While $1 billion may not sound like much when compared with the Peoples’ Bank of China total holdings of US Government debt of more than $1 trillion or to the US Federal debt today of over $20 trillion, it’s significance lies beyond the nominal amount. It’s a test run by both governments of the potential for state financing of infrastructure and other projects independent of dollar risk from such events as US Treasury financial sanctions. Read More
It should be clear to you now, the “unwind” has begun. Jim and I tried to tell you this a couple of months back, now there is absolute evidence. Look at real estate in many parts of the world. Australia, China, London, Vancouver, New York and now even San Francisco. The most important thing to look at is “volume”, as price always follows. Read More
I deplore the tax cut that has passed Congress. It is not an economic policy tax cut, and it has nothing whatsoever to do with supply-side economics. The entire purpose is to raise equity prices by providing equity owners with more capital gains and dividends. In other words, it is legislation that makes equity owners richer, thus further polarizing society into a vast arena of poverty and near-poverty and the One Percent, or more precisely a fraction of the One Percent wallowing in billions of dollars. Unless our rulers can continue to control the explanations, the tax cut edges us closer to revolution resulting from complete distrust of government. Read More
Gross is alarmed by a financial economy that is growing faster than the real economy, Money says. He's also concerned about huge debt loads, an aging population, the automation of labor and weak productivity growth in the real economy, Money adds. All these factors "promise to stunt U.S. and global growth far below historical norms," Gross believes, per Money. Right now, "All markets are increasingly at risk," as Money quotes from Gross' June Investment Outlook letter. (For more, see also: Bill Gross: QE is "Financial Methadone.")
By staying out of this overvalued market, the only thing we can get is sore while the believers get rich. As it’s impossible to time the market, getting out now can be costly for a while, but is the smartest thing to do in the long run. Getting out of the S&P 500 will be extremely rewarding when the $2 billion daily inflows into Vanguard reverse and become outflows. With nobody buying, the drop will be huge.
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT - Free Report) develops, licenses, and supports software, services, devices, and solutions worldwide. The company has a Zacks Rank #1. In the last 60 days, 15 earnings estimates moved north, while none moved south for the current year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings increased 7.3% in the same period. The company’s expected earnings growth rate for the current quarter and year is 14.3% and 9.5%, respectively.
Erik Townsend welcomes Jim Grant to MacroVoices. Erik and Jim discuss new Fed governor Powell, treasury yields and how far the FED go before something breaks. They discuss his outlook on inflation, gold, junk bonds, China and the drivers of long term debt cycles. They reflect on History and what happened when the FED did not bail out the banks in 1920 and considerations on what actions the US government can take to deal with the debt.
Second, Faber says "The market isn't healthy" because only a small number of stocks are driving the major indexes upward, per Money. "We have a bubble in everything," he told CNBC. However, in an earlier CNBC segment, Faber was castigated by another guest for  consistently forecasting a market crash since 2012. (For more, see also: Why the S&P 500 Is Healthier Than It Looks.)

Last week, yields on the German 10-year Bund and 10-year U.S. Treasury notes hit record highs for 2015, rising 85 basis points and 72 basis points, respectively, since their lows this year. Rather than trying to deter the selloff, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi fanned the flames on June 3, saying that European bond investors should expect greater volatility amid a stronger economic outlook and higher inflation expectations. Credit Suisse equities analysts take things a step further, forecasting that bonds are entering a multi-year bear market.
×