Before I get into my analysis and the reasons we are heading towards the Seneca Cliff, I wanted to share the following information.  I haven’t posted much material over the past week because I decided to spend a bit of quality time with family.  Furthermore, a good friend of mine past away which put me in a state of reflection.  This close friend was also very knowledgeable about our current economic predicament and was a big believer in owning gold and silver.  So, it was a quite a shame to lose someone close by who I could chat with about these issues. Read More
Per the latest COT report (note: this references the August 21st COT Report), the hedge fund (Managed Money) net short position in Comex paper gold was 90,000 contracts – by far a record short position for the hedge fund trader category. Conversely, the bank net long position (Swap Dealers) in Comex paper gold was close to an all-time high. It’s not quite as high it was in December 2015.
In an interview it was said that during the Weimar experience, gold performed extremely well but silver lagged. It is for this reason they suggested not to pay attention to the current out of whack silver to gold ratio north of 80-1 and it will not narrow. This is just wrong for so many reasons. First, the ratio of silver to gold worldwide at the time was roughly 15-1. Silver was priced at $1.385 per ounce while gold was at $20.67 per ounce in dollar terms. Read More
While many analysts focus on the company’s profits or net income, I like to pay attention to its free cash flow.   Free cash flow is nothing more than subtracting capital expenditures from the company’s cash from operations.  Because the gold mining industry is very capital intensive, the company’s free cash flow is a better indicator of financial health rather than the net income. Read More
Rate and Review This Podcast on iTunesOverwhelming Evidence of a Weakening EconomyThe Dow Jones was the only one of the major indexes to close the day higher. The S&P was down slightly, we had larger declines in the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000. More importantly than the movements that we've just seen on the day, or even the week, look at what's ...…
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The sneaky thing about Amazon’s increased dominance in so many key aspects of our lives is that much of the perniciousness is hidden. No one’s going to tell you about all the retailers who have gotten pressured or destroyed via its tactics while you’re happily clicking “add to cart” and smiling about 2-day free shipping. In this sense, it can be best compared to the evils of factory farming. Most people just simply have no idea about the immense damage going on behind the scenes as they indulge in incredible convenience and what looks like a good deal.

There is a popular notion, at least among American libertarians and gold bugs. The idea is that people will one day “get woke”, and suddenly realize that the dollar is bad / unbacked / fiat / unsound / Ponzi / other countries don’t like it. When they do, they will repudiate it. That is, sell all their dollars to buy consumer goods (i.e. hyperinflation), gold, and/or whatever other currency.
I have preached, in fact I have over-preached, on staying agile in tough markets. Remember, when the beat-down comes your way, I want you all to cover the P/L on your screen with a post-it. This one little trick is something I do myself. By doing this, the trader allows him or herself to make tough, reasoned decisions without the constant distraction that one's profit/loss number can be.
It’s important to remember that a bull market is characterized by a general sense of optimism and positive growth which tends to catalyze greed. A bear market is associated with a general sense of decline which tends to instill fear in the hearts of stockholders. As Rule #1 investors, we act opposite of the investing public – when it comes to bull vs bear markets – and capitalize on their emotions by finding quality stocks at low prices during bear markets and selling during bull markets when they’ve regained their value.
Our analysis continues today with this research of a potential Short Squeeze in the SPX and other broader markets.  As you are probably well aware, we have been nailing the markets with our detailed analysis for quite a while.  Our Advanced Analytical tools have called nearly every move.  Nearly two weeks ago we called a massive market bottom to form in the US markets – well before just about anyone else even saw a bottom formation. In fact, we have already banked 10% profit on the first half of our best-cherry-picked setup for subscribers and it’s continuing to rally more.
The Market is a Fractal - the word coined by Benoit Mandelbrot who discoverd the structures in which the whole is echoed in its parts and sub-parts, yet remaining the same no matter how much they are blown up or shrunk down...Fractals used in motion picture animation to created the surface of the moon from a repeating pattern, just as Armies of Thousands can be simulated from a group of 12 men repeated over and over on the battlefield...the lower degree fractals are previews of the whole, they are often echoed inversely as shown above in green...as Mandelbrot stated all charts scale the same, without the legend you dont know if you are looking at a Daily or Monthly chart as above & below
In the months ahead, knowing that you can depend on us to guide you through Market turbulence will be most reassuring. In this market, Buy & Hold can only lead to financial ruin. When stressed, we humans tend to fall back on strategies that worked in the past, despite a vastly differing market environment than any time since 1929. With Exceptional Bear, you choose which asset-class ETFs to employ, and which to exclude. 

Members of the American libertarian movement, particularly extremist preppers, are often associated with a belief that a complete breakdown in society is the only outcome from government economic policies and will lead to complete social disintegration. At the centre of their concerns is monetary destruction, with other issues, such as the erosion of personal freedom and the right to bear arms, important but peripheral. They cite history, particularly the hyperinflationary collapses, from Rome to Zimbabwe, and now Venezuela. They draw on Austrian economic theory, which fans their dislike of government and their expectation of total chaos. Read More
After a period of excellent returns since 2008, Gilts will no longer be a profitable investment and those investors that ventured into Gilts as a way of increasing income from cash could get a nasty surprise when they realise how sensitive Gilt prices are to changes in yield.  With the 10 year yield at just 1.3% compared to an inflation rate of 3.1%, those investors are already suffering a loss in real terms.  But if we get an adjustment back to a positive real yield, the capital loss will be extremely damaging to prices.  For long dated securities, losses could be in excess of 20% for a movement in yield of just 1% and that would be just the start of the adjustment.  That recovery period could stretch into years.
Matthew has written a most timely book to prepare us for the bear market. Within the pages are nuggets of wisdom to help us identify the onset of bear markets and what strategies to take or not to take in such market volatility, to either stay safe or to profit from the stocks carnage in a bear market. Those with strong stomachs can consider the profit making strategies. For the rest of us, we wait for the golden opportunities at the bottom of the bear market to profit. What I like about the book is the wealth of timely advice and reality checks to temper our irrational exuberance In stock trading. Thank you Matthew for your timely and wise guidance, as always. Highly recommended book for your financial health.
Last Monday, Morgan Stanley made quite a splash with its contrarian call, when in the aftermath of a handful of poor tech results, most notably from Facebook which lost as much as $150BN in market cap due to slowing user growth, the bank's chief equity strategist Michael Wilson boldly predicted that "the selling has just begun and this correction will be biggest since the one we experienced in February."
In 1979, President Carter's administration ceased diplomatic recognition of the government in Taiwan as independent of mainland China, as the U.S. and China normalized relations. The Chinese government has a "One China" policy, where the role of Taiwan is concerned. As for Taiwan, the "island province" is more than autonomous, the island has its own government and its own head of state.
Experienced market participants know that when all fear (or conversely, optimism) has been extinguished it is time to take a hard look at the contrarian view. In this report we will study the long term technical view of markets and set aside any assumptions about the future.  Technical analysis is both a science and an art, and applying appropriate measures of each, let's tune into the message of the markets with an open mind.
The NASDAQ 100 is surging today following the Democrats retaking the House. The reason for the rally? Just days ago, President Trump threatened to file anti-trust cases against the big tech companies and claim they were monopolies. Investors believe that the Democrats will neutralize that threat in the near-term. As tech surges higher, investors should be ready to pull the trigger on the short side when price hits $178.00. This is a major technical resistance and all technical chart…
Meeker provided an eloquent defense of short sales. He argued that the bears stabilize prices by providing liquidity and creating demand – by covering their shorts – in a falling market. Shorting was not illegitimate, in his view. “A short sale,” wrote Meeker, “represents a debt contracted in goods rather than money.” In this it was similar to many other business contracts.
2. Assuming NO appreciation on the house, and ignoring my monthly home payments (only looking at initial deposit (investment) and my ending house value 30 years from now), I get approximately 5% real return in almost every scenario on the initial deposit. Varying inflation from 0% to 10% annually has wide impacts on nominal rates and final house values (assuming house keeps up with inflation), but the real value stays almost 5% annually in most case.

Well Danny – let me tell you something. There are many, many other people out there who are intelligent and REFUSE TO BE TAKEN TO THE CLEANERS. Real estate is WAY overpriced in many areas, so if you say that we basically “need to pay at least 97% of the asking price,” I say you are the epitome of an UN-professional. You do not have the best interests of you buyers at heart. You only have your own selfish interests in mind.

RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/FAANG's Took a Big Bite Out of the MarketAnother Monday, another big down day for the U.S. stock market, it is turning out to be one hell of a quarter; not all of the declines happening in October. But as I said earlier, it doesn't have to be in October for th ...…

However, as we explained last December, this is a low-ball estimate which "understates the potential losses" as it "does not include high-yield bonds, fixed-rate mortgages, and fixed-income derivatives", which would suggest that the real number is likely more than double the estimated when taking into account all duration products. As a reminder, Goldman calculated the entire duration universe at $40 trillion as of the summer of 2016, resulting in $2.4 trillion in losses for a 1% move. By now the number is far, far greater.

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