With the Fed now reducing the size of their balance sheet by $30 billion per month, and the European Central Bank scaling back bond purchases by $20 billion per month, this dynamic is going to change, radically. There will be a shift from a $250 billion net demand in 2017, to a $550 billion net supply in 2018. As the below chart shows, that is quite a large swing.
Phil is a hedge fund manager and author of 3 New York Times best-selling investment books, Invested, Rule #1, and Payback Time. He was taught how to invest using Rule #1 strategy when he was a Grand Canyon river guide in the 80's, after a tour group member shared his formula for successful investing. Phil has a passion educating others, and has given thousands of people the confidence to start investing and retire comfortably.
2008 had already had more than its share of financial turmoil. In the months leading up to 9/15/2008, Bear Stearns, Fannie/Freddie, and AIG had already had major blowouts. The stock markets were very itchy and everyone was on edge. Most who worked in the industry knew it was just a matter of time until something much more systemic took place. Up until this time, the contagion had been mostly limited to the US, with some minor external collateral damage. We were both heavily involved in the financial/economic landscape at this time. Andy was running his investment advisory and economic consultancy firm and Graham was a strategy analyst for a major G7 central bank. We had already both come to independent conclusions that this was going to be a long emergency as coined by James Kunstler. This was not going to be a 3 or 6-month event and then it would be roses and cherries and cream for the whole world. Read More
Central banks may tweak a few rates here and there, announce some tapering due to “economic growth”, or deflect attention to fiscal policy, but the entire financial and capital markets system rests on the strategies, co-dependencies and cheap money policies of central banks. The bond markets will feel the heat of any tightening shift or fears of one, while the stock market will continue to rush ahead on the reality of cheap money supply until debt problems tug at the equity markets and take them down.Read More
Nothing is going to be the same after this. On Friday, the United States hit China with 34 billion dollars in tariffs, and China immediately responded with similar tariffs. If it stopped there, this trade war between the United States and China would not be catastrophic for the global economy. But it isn’t going to stop there. Donald Trump is already talking about hitting China with an additional 500 billion dollars in tariffs, which would essentially cover pretty much everything that China exports to the U.S. in a typical year. The Chinese have accused Trump of starting “the biggest trade war in economic history”, and they are pledging to fight for as long as it takes. Read More
Still, bear market rallies may seem as if they are a rising bull market, but until the market shows gains of 20% from the bear market low, it can't be considered a bull market. And, while bear markets occur during the contraction phase of the business cycle, bull markets typically happen when the business cycle is expanding (shown by several indicators, like lower inflation and increased employment, among others).
All day today the presstitute scum at NPR went on and on about President Trump, using every kind of guest and issue to set him up for more criticism as an unfit occupant of the Oval Office, because, and only because, he threatens the massive budget of the military/security complex by attempting to normalize relations with Russia. The NPR scum even got an ambassador from Montenegro on the telephone and made every effort to goad the ambassador into denouncing Trump for saying that Montenegro had strong and aggressive people capable of defending themselves and were not in need of sending the sons of American families to defend them. Somehow this respectful compliment about the Monenegro people was supposed to be an insult. The ambassador refused to be put into opposition to Trump. NPR kept trying, but got nowhere. Read More
Water in faults vaporizes during an earthquake, depositing gold, according to a model published in the March 17 issue of the journal Nature Geoscience. The model provides a quantitative mechanism for the link between gold and quartz seen in many of the world's gold deposits, said Dion Weatherley, a geophysicist at the University of Queensland in Australia and lead author of the study. Read More
It is difficult to find the words to describe just how serious America’s trade war with China is becoming. As you will see below, the two largest economies on the entire planet are on a self-destructive course that almost seems irreversible at this point. The only way that this trade war is going to come to a rapid conclusion is if one side is willing to totally submit and accept an extremely bitter and humiliating defeat on the global stage, and that is not likely to happen. Read More
A 20% drop by the DJI will next require it to break below its support at 23180. History,1928–2017, suggests that ordinarily a bigger decline more than 15% is usually delayed until (1) the NYSE A/D Line has shown a much longer period of divergence than we have so far had, and/or (2) the Tiger Accumulation Index has been negative a lot longer than it has now or (3) that a sudden DJI head/shoulders top pattern has appeared which shows a rapid re-evaluation of market conditions by Professionals. None of these three conditions are present now. So, technically a decline below 23180 should not occur at this juncture, if this were a “normal” market. But downside volatility is very high now and the DJI is unable to stay within its normal Peerless trading bands.
The reason to engage in this otherwise depressing exercise is that selling at or near a bear market low is one of the biggest sins of the investment arena, and is particularly harmful to retirees’ financial standard of living. That’s because selling at or near a low means that you will have suffered all or nearly all of the bear market’s losses but (depending on when you get back in) only a fraction of the gains in the market’s subsequent recovery.
Gotta call that statement and the article what it is: terminally myopic fluff per the status quo's refusal (inability?) to get fundamental. One fundamental is to invoke this knowledge / wisdom / truth: “We need scarcely add that the contemplation in natural science of a wider domain than the actual leads to a far better understanding of the actual.” Sir Arthur Eddington
Rate and Review This Podcast on iTunesThanks to Listeners for 400 Episodes of The Peter Schiff Show PodcastFor those of you who say that Peter Schiff does Podcasts when the Dow is down, Dow Jones was up 547 points today. This is my 400th episode of the Peter Schiff Show Podcast. I want to take a moment to thank my audience - everybody who has b ...…
With a discussion of the bond bear market comes many moving parts. David seeks to explain the concepts while utilizing the analogy of cutting an apple. An apple can be cut in many different ways, and each method uncovers a new way of looking at the apple and its pieces – in this case, interest rates. There are two main interest components that are discussed in this episode of Money For the Rest of Us: inflation expectations and real rates (i.e. your return after inflation.)