And it isn't just expectations of future inflation that are changing - current inflation is picking up as well. In the U.S., annual core inflation (less food and energy) currently sits at 1.8 percent - up from 1.6 percent in the 12 months through January - and wages are rising. Even if oil prices remain flat over the next 12 months, year-over-year inflation comparisons in the Eurozone will turn positive in the fourth quarter, with expectations of annual inflation of 1.6 percent. As has happened in the U.S., Credit Suisse also thinks that investors may soon start questioning just when the ECB will taper quantitative easing. That, too, would be bad for bonds. Without the ECB as a big-time buyer, the supply of bonds will increase, pushing down prices.
Major international comparisons have long concluded that Americans’ ability to effectively utilize mathematics is inadequate. Such conclusions divide students, parents, teachers and administrators into camps that share little more than blaming others for the problems. However, it is unclear whether all the finger-pointing indicates a real desire to overcome our innumeracy. In fact, we systematically misuse numbers to distort reality because we want to fool ourselves, making our ineptitude no surprise.
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/Merchandise Trade Deficit Largest Trade Deficit on RecordToday's rally had to overlook the bad news that came out today. I was watching CNBC this morning just before the news was announced and the anchor said, "We've got a lot of news coming out at 8:30 and I ...…
There was a great sense of triumphalism in the councils of the president’s economic advisory committees. But then, lo and behold, comes the Vietnam War, comes the demographic, comes the coming of age of the baby boomers, comes all sorts of things which in retrospect appear to have been instigators of the price inflation. But they were not so regarded at the time.
The bigger they come, the harder they fall. Currently, we are in the terminal phase of an “everything bubble” which has had ten years to grow. It is the biggest financial bubble that our country has ever seen, and experts are warning that when it finally bursts we will experience an economic downturn that is even worse than the Great Depression of the 1930s. Of course many of us in the alternative media have been warning about what is coming for quite some time, but now even many in the mainstream media have jumped on the bandwagon. Read More
Eleven GOP members of Congress led by Rep. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) have written a letter to Attorney General Jeff Sessions, Attorney John Huber, and FBI Director Christopher Wray - asking them to investigate former FBI Director James Comey, Hillary Clinton and others - including FBI lovebirds Peter Strzok and Lisa Page, for a laundry list of potential crimes surrounding the 2016 U.S. presidential election.
If you’re doing well right now, what else really matters? The stock market seems to be on a bizarro perpetual escalator to neverending prosperity, despite rafts of economic fundamentals that paint a portrait of debt-bloated, weak economy, oceans of free debt have been available for years on end to fund lifestyles well beyond earned means, and so long as one has sufficient exposure to risk assets, why bother worrying about big-picture insolvencies that are still years away? Read More
Our modeling systems are suggesting that Gold and Silver will begin a new upside rally very quickly. We wrote about how our modeling systems are suggesting this upside move could be a tremendous opportunity for investors over 2 weeks ago. Our initial target is near the $1245 level and our second target is near the $1309 level. Recent lows help to confirm this upside projection as the most recent low prices created a price rotation that supports further upside price action. What is needed right now is a push above $1220 before we begin to see the real acceleration higher.
In our regular gold trading alerts, we focus on the short- and medium-term outlook and we rarely discuss the very long-term issues or price targets. The reason is simple – the long-term issues and price targets don’t change often, so usually there’s little new to say about them. Consequently, it’s been a long time since we last discussed our view on gold’s explosive upside potential. In fact, it’s been so long that those who do not take the time to read our analyses thoroughly and those who have been reading them for only a short while may think that we are bearish on gold in the long run. Or that we’re perma-bears. Naturally, it’s nonsense and those who have been diligently following our articles know it. What we’re aiming for is to help investors position themselves to make the most of the upcoming rally in the precious metals market and one of the best ways to do it is to help people prepare for the final bottom in gold. Read More
We are barely out of the gates in 2018 and the S&P 500 is up over 4%. From just looking around me it is clear entrepreneurs and consumers are optimistic about the future. For much of the last decade the general public wouldn't touch equities with a ten foot pole. Now people are taking on debt to buy as much cryptoassets as possible. I don't share this optimism and primarily look for investments outside of the U.S. and in special situations and investments that may have low or negative correlation to the general direction of the market. Seven reasons why I want to be very careful going into 2018: Read More
For context, consider the last three bear markets. The most recent one, which lasted for 517 days from October 2007 to March 2009, saw a whopping 57% plunge in the S&P 500. During the 929-day bear market from March 2000 to October 2002, the benchmark lost 49%. And during the relatively brief, 101-day period from August to December 1987, the index tumbled 34%.
5. Historically, housing has generally kept up with inflation (whereas stocks have generally performed negatively in real terms—which takes into account inflation). For example, look at the negative real returns on stocks during the 70’s; compare that to real value of housing that stayed flat during the 70’s (housing prices moved up in line with inflation).
None of this means stocks were at a bottom Wednesday. At this point, we may need the classic “big puke moment” of capitulation to wipe out the remaining weak hands, restore enough fear and respect for the market and clear the air. No one knows when that will happen. But watch for a big whoosh down at an open, followed by a quick and sharp reversal, and some gains.
Whether the market is in bear territory or not matters because declines tend to feed on themselves. It also suggests that investors have lost faith that the economy can keep producing the big gains it has turned in lately. If anyone still believes that President Donald Trump’s tax cuts will lead to a prolonged boost to corporate profits, it is hard to see evidence of that in the market. On top of that, when the psychology of investors is glum, bad news tends to send stocks downstream much faster than at times when stocks are trading at bull-market premiums.
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/Relief Rally Post-MidtermsThe elections are over and the Blue Wave was averted and the Dow Jones rose 545 points today to celebrate that fact and the NASDAQ was up 194 points, 2.64%; Russell 2000 up 26 points, about 1.67% . Now you may be wondering why there w ...…
Build America Bonds are a taxable municipal bond created under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 that carry special tax credits and federal subsidies for either the bond holder or the bond issuer. Many issuers have taken advantage of the Build America Bond provision to secure financing at a lower cost than issuing traditional tax-exempt bonds. The Build America Bond provision, which expired on January 1, 2011, was open to governmental agencies issuing bonds to fund capital expenditures.
The public agencies raising money through bonds—such as states, cities, and counties—are known as municipal issuers. The ability to raise such funds is an exercise of the municipal issuer's buying power. In all bond issuances, the issuer serves as the focal point and the head of the financing team, and oversees the transformation of an idea for a project into an issuance. However, in some cases, the bond measure for a public project must first be approved by voters.
vt (pret bore; pp borne) tolerar, aguantar, soportar; (to give birth to) dar a luz; child-bearing age edad fértil; to — down pujar; Bear down as if you were having a bowel movement.. Puje como si estuviera defecando (haciendo popó); to — weight soportar peso; You shouldn’t bear weight with your left leg for two weeks..No debe soportar peso con su pierna izquierda durante dos semanas.
Also, matter can neither be created or distroyed. Is the same true with wealth? Do we have a finite “pie” of wealth that moves from “family” to “family” over time? Let’s consider a given “life cycle” of family wealth. 2 to 3 generations work to build wealth. 2 to 3 generations maintain that wealth. 2 to 3 generations blow the family fortune…. in general. All of this happening when other “families” are building, some other “family” is blowing it.
Presidential Tweets Express Anger at the FedThe catalyst today was more tweets from President Trump where he is expressing anger, not only at the Federal Reserve, and at the ECB and at the Bank of China, because he is accusing both Europe and China of being currency manipulators; taking advantage of us by weakening their currencies. He's saying ...…
Investing legend Bill Miller said in his latest letter to investors this week, "I believe that if rates rise in 2018, taking the 10-year treasury above 3 percent, that will propel stocks significantly higher, as money exits bond funds for only the second year in the past 10. ... Bonds, in my opinion, have entered a bear market," Miller wrote, but he added, "one that is likely to be benign for the next year or so."
The type of project or projects that are funded by a bond affects the taxability of income received on the bonds. Interest earnings on bonds that fund projects that are constructed for the public good are generally exempt from federal income taxes, while interest earnings on bonds issued to fund projects partly or wholly benefiting only private parties, sometimes referred to as private activity bonds or PABs, may be subject to federal income tax. However, qualified private activity bonds, whether issued by a governmental unit or private entity, are exempt from federal taxes because the bonds are financing services or facilities that, while meeting the private activity tests, are needed by a government. See a list of those projects in Section 141 of the IRS Code.
Variables may include; immigration reform that further “grows” our economy through assimilation of ever more people who can make each piece of the pie ever more expensive and buy up the overabundance of housing; and tax and policy structures that are favorable to population growth by making children less costly and even financially rewarding, increasing costs of pregnancy prevention, etc.
Mr. Grant’s television appearances include “60 Minutes,” “The Charlie Rose Show,” “CBS Evening News,” and a 10-year stint on “Wall Street Week”. His journalism has appeared in a variety of periodicals, including the Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal and Foreign Affairs. He contributed an essay to the Sixth Edition of Graham and Dodd’s Security Analysis (McGraw-Hill, 2009).
The world of finance and investment, as always, faces many uncertainties. The US economy is booming, say some, and others warn that money supply growth has slowed, raising fears of impending deflation. We fret about the banks, with a well-known systemically-important European name in difficulties. We worry about the disintegration of the Eurozone, with record imbalances and a significant member, Italy, digging in its heels. China’s stock market, we are told, is now officially in bear market territory. Will others follow? But there is one thing that’s so far been widely ignored and that’s inflation. Read More
The DJIA actually did a lot better than a lot of the other averages. The Dow Jones transports were down just over 4%; 445 points. the NASDAQ was down over 4% as well - 315 points. Weakness across the board in the stock market today. And it's not just the homebuilders and the autos. I've been talking about those sectors as leading indicators and, yes, many of those stocks made new 52-week lows today as well. But they were not the worst performers on the day.
Thank you for visiting the homepage of this five-part series on the individuals and ideas shaping my worldview. I have gained a lot of knowledge from these truly great minds, and the purpose of this series is to share what I have learned with you, my readers. I’m confident that the writings that follow will help you better understand the trends shaping the future of financial markets, and our economy.
Now a money manager at Janus Henderson, Gross was the co-founder of Pimco, which he helped build into the world’s largest bond fund manager and was dubbed the “bond king” by the financial media. In his note, Gross said he expected the 10-year yield to rise above 2.75% by the end of this year. But he waved away worries that rising yields would deal pain to investors, saying higher yields could sit along with slightly positive returns for bonds.
It can be argued that when Spain instituted a common currency in the form of the Real de a Ocho, also known as Pieces of Eight, or the Spanish dollar, globalisation’s first chapter had been written. The acceptance of the dollar coins for commercial transactions throughout Asia, the Americas and much of Europe, resulted in a cultural exchange between nations, as well as the relatively free movement of people and goods between the three continent. Read More
Eventually, probably when a recession comes along and crushes corporate earnings, it will become clear that earnings and the high valuations attached to them are unsustainable. When that happens, the same unsophisticated investors blindly plowing their money into the market will panic and rush to the exits similarly to what happened in 2001 and 2008/2009. Therefore, we can expect a minimum 50% drop in the S&P 500 and long term returns—I’m talking about 20 to 30 years—below 4% per year given that the S&P 500 earnings yield is 3.83%.
The bear markets of the last 50 years have had many different causes. Sometimes it's an external shock, often caused by politics—the 1973-74 correction set off by the rise of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is an example, as is a 1990 bear market set off by Iraq's invasion of Kuwait. So, too, was the 1982 bear instigated by the Federal Reserve, which raised interest rates to punishing levels in a successful bid to crush inflation.
He remains confident stocks will see a fresh string of new highs in the final months of the year. Referring to history as a guide, Stovall noted that the fourth quarter is pretty strong during midterm election years, and seasonality points to more gains. He believes it will be easy for the S&P to grab another 80 points and break above 3,000 by year-end.
Written in a straightforward and accessible style, The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets reveals how you should protect your assets and invest your money when the American economy is experiencing perilous economic downturns and wealth building is happening elsewhere. Filled with insightful commentary, inventive metaphors, and pre-scriptive advice, this book shows you how to make money under adverse market conditions by using a conservative, nontraditional investment strategy.
It took sixteen months to build the exceptionally steep Trump Rally, and just one week to eliminate a quarter of it. While I wouldn’t call that jolting reversal a stock-market crash in the ordinary sense, the largest one-day point fall in the history of the market (by far) certainly marks a massive change in market conditions. From this point forward, it won’t be the same market it was.
Now the Bruce and Nellie Ohr syory is actually funny and a complete novel yet it digs to the heart and the real meat of the deep tentacles these rascals were using… The Ohr story is the best proof yet and I will never believe Sessions and company did not know all this long ago. Like before he recused……These people are like impacted infected wisdom teeth that need pulling and maybe cracking with a hammer first to get it all out….
The Trimtabs CEO said that, even accepting the argument about annual rebalancing and the fact that an aging demographic has greater need for income investments, investors could choose to go into cash or cash equivalents instead of bonds likely to go down in value. Some bank certificates of deposit are now yielding as much, in some cases more, than Treasurys. "There are other asset classes than stocks and bonds," Santschi said. "There's cash, real estate, commodities, precious metals."
Three of the four worst bear markets coincided with lengthy recessions. The bear markets of 1929, 1973 and 2007 were accompanied by long recession periods. The perfect example is 1929 bear market, when the three-year-long depression drove the market down by 86%. The exception is 2000 bear market, which was mainly caused by the dot-com bubble burst despite a mild recession in 2001.
In the biggest move, the gauntlet has been cast by the Chinese as they challenge the U.S. petrodollar, with the formal announcement of a March 26th start for gold-backed-yuan oil futures trading. Asian secret society sources say the Year of the Dog, which is just starting, usually brings volatility (in this case presumably in the financial markets) before things settle down into a new normal as the year progresses. Read More
The last refunding two weeks ago, which consisted of three, 10- and 30-year securities, surprised many by drawing strong demand. That was before the tariff tantrum in markets. When asked on Friday whether China plans to scale back its purchases of Treasuries in response to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, China's ambassador to the US, Cui Tiankai, wouldn't rule out the possibility. "We are looking at all options," he said.