2. Assuming NO appreciation on the house, and ignoring my monthly home payments (only looking at initial deposit (investment) and my ending house value 30 years from now), I get approximately 5% real return in almost every scenario on the initial deposit. Varying inflation from 0% to 10% annually has wide impacts on nominal rates and final house values (assuming house keeps up with inflation), but the real value stays almost 5% annually in most case.
"A downtick in bonds is not same as a downtick in equities," said Mike Loewengart, vice president of investment strategy at E-Trade Financial. He said even in previous rate increase environments, when bond income is received and reinvested, that can keep returns in positive territory and help investors get through fixed-income volatility. "Maybe it is the end of a 30-year bull run in bonds, but I still think if rates rise gradually, most diversified fixed income portfolios should fair OK."
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on iTunes!U.S. GDP Growth Reported at 4.1%Today we finally got the highly anticipated first look at U.S. economic growth, or really GDP growth, because the GDP is not that great a barometer of the economy. Nonetheless, thats the one that everybody uses to measure it, and that's the one that we're going to talk about ...…
Indeed, in today's fraught environment it can be well and truly said that the chartmonkeys have become deaf, dumb and blind to everything happening on Planet Earth external to the gaming tables where they slosh around in their cups. After all, to use the latest evidence, what could be more indicative of a political system fixing to implode than this weekend's utterly phony and disgustingly undeserved deification of the late Senator John McCain? Read More
[A] new economics—the information theory of capitalism—is already at work. Concealed behind an elaborate apparatus, the theory drives the most powerful machines and networks of the era. Information theory treats human creations as transmissions through a channel—whether a wire or the world—in the face of noise, and gauges the outcomes by their surprise. Now it is ready to transform economics as it has already transformed the world.
But if you get to the point where it cannot be repaid in real terms, where it becomes a guarantee when you buy a US Treasury bond that you will never get your purchasing power back – you may get positive yield in nominal terms, but you’re always going to get a negative yield in real terms because the debt has gotten to such a level that they can’t possibly service it in real terms.

Rate and Review This Podcast on iTuneshttps://www.branddrivendigital.com/how-to-rate-and-review-a-podcast-in-itunes/The Bulls Had No FearToday may be Halloween, but the Bulls had no fear. The U.S. stock markets closed higher today for the second consecutive day - the first time for the month of October. A lot of traders are probably happy that ...…

Whether it's stated or not, one source of the inchoate outrage triggered by Russian-sourced purchases of adverts on Facebook in 2016 (i.e. "meddling in our election") is the sense that the U.S. is sacrosanct due to our innate moral goodness and our Imperial Project: never mind that the intelligence agencies of all great powers (including the U.S.) meddle in the domestic affairs and elections of other nations, including those of allies as well as geopolitical rivals-- no other great power should ever meddle with U.S. domestic affairs and elections. Read More
Bear markets are inevitable, and you have to be willing to endure them in exchange for the opportunity to get life-changing wealth from your investments during the stock market's upward moves. Fortunately, there are ways to prepare for bear markets that can make it easier to get through them when they hit. You can even boost your overall returns if you're willing to use some smart investment strategies that others may be too fearful to use.
The need to minimize the cost of distance has caused businesses and individuals to cluster around urban areas. This trend began during the Industrial Revolution 250 years ago, when millions of people moved to cities to work in factories. As Karen notes “Cities are dense urban hubs that minimize the cost of moving raw materials, labor and finished goods.”
It could be the arrival of a “sudden stop”. As I explain in Escape from the Central Bank Trap (BEP, 2017), a sudden stop happens when the extraordinary and excessive flow of cheap US dollars into emerging markets suddenly reverses and funds return to the U.S. looking for safer assets. The central bank “carry trade” of low interest rates and abundant liquidity was used to buy “growth” and “inflation-linked” assets in emerging markets. Read More
In 2008 through 2011, new public service announcements (PSAs) featuring Smokey rendered in CGI were released.[57] In 2010, the PSAs encouraged young adults to “Get Your Smokey On” – that is, to become like Smokey and speak up appropriately when others are acting carelessly.[58] In 2011, the campaign launched its first mobile application, or app, to provide critical information about wildfire prevention, including a step-by-step guide to safely building and extinguishing campfires, as well as a map of current wildfires across America.[59]
The issuer of a municipal bond receives a cash purchase price at the time of issuance in exchange for a promise to repay the purchasing investors, or their transferees, (the bond holder) over time. Repayment periods can be as short as a few months (although this is very rare) to 20, 30, or 40 years, or even longer. The issuer typically uses proceeds from a bond sale to pay for capital projects or for other purposes it cannot or does not desire to pay for immediately with funds on hand. Tax regulations governing municipal bonds generally require all money raised by a bond sale to be spent on capital projects within three to five years of issuance.[13] Certain exceptions permit the issuance of bonds to fund other items, including ongoing operations and maintenance expenses in certain cases, the purchase of single-family and multi-family mortgages, and the funding of student loans, among many other things.

It often happens that gold and silver prices hit low points in June and December, before rallying sharply. The reason is not hard to understand: traders at the bullion banks close their books at the year and half-year ends and are almost certainly instructed by their superiors to reduce their trading positions to as low a level as possible. This is because the banks wish to report balance sheets that reflect low risk exposure for the purpose of making regulatory returns. Read More
At the time of publication, Michael Brush had no positions in any stocks mentioned in this column. Brush has suggested AMZN and GOOGL in his stock newsletter Brush Up on Stocks. Brush is a Manhattan-based financial writer who has covered business for the New York Times and The Economist Group, and he attended Columbia Business School in the Knight-Bagehot program.
The Gilt index is an important benchmark for most UK fixed income investors, whatever their risk appetite.  2017 was a year of modest returns (+2% for the iBoxx Gilt index) but the fact is that we are now well into a bear market which will last for many years.  As at 11th January an investor in the 10 year Gilt index has suffered a period of losses of 370 days since the last peak in August 2016.  That is already one of longest recovery periods in the last 40 years or so.  In other words, the Gilt index has been in a drawdown phase for about 16 months.  Most investors will not have noticed because the equity market has soared over the same period and in any case a drawdown of 4% below the peak doesn’t sound like a lot.  But when the asset in question yields just 1.6%, it will take over 2 years to get back to those highs, unless we see another period of falling yields and rising prices.
As Benjamin Westerman, CPA/PFS, CFP® in St. Louis, MO explains, many investors look to bond holdings and cash during a market downturn. “Bonds are your 'sleep at night' money that is protected during a bear market, while you wait for your investment portfolio to recover. In addition, if you have any money on the sidelines or are still in the accumulation/savings phase of your life, this is a great opportunity to invest in equities while stocks are on sale.”
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebookhttps://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/Sacrificed on the Altar of Political CorrectnessI want to spend the rest of this podcast talking about politics; in particular, what's going on with Brett Kavanaugh and his fading chances of sitting on the Supreme Court. It appears that he may be sacrificed on ...…
Many of us do think that something isn’t quite right with the world economy. One in a million actually understands, where does it go wrong? Powers that be, do not want you to know about it as it’s your ignorance which keeps them at the top of the financial food chain. I don’t know of any other example in history where so many were looted by so few.
Add another nail into our society. Education isn’t to raise the cultural level of society, it’s ONLY to get a job. SAD. I suppose Taco Bell and MacDonalds should make prep “colleges” for thier future employees. That way they can work their “education” off and not receive wages. My good God, look at how enslaved we are as a people, yet we still vote against our own benefit. Sad. My $20,000 credit card that was used to try and stay in a over-priced home, I walked from, but if it was used to educate me, I would be bound forever. Anyone see a problem here?

This chart does a simple comparison of Osaka condo and Tokyo condo prices which does not reflect the entirety of the Japanese housing market.  Yet the path seems very similar.  Large areas with a real estate frenzy that hit high peaks and have struggled ever since.  In fact, if we look at nationwide prices we realize that Japan has seen a 20 year bear market in real estate:
"Bring on the Trade War!"Today is Jobs Friday, but before I get to the jobs report, I want to talk a little bit about the escalation of the trade war, In fact, some stories I'm reading are that the trade war began today, or last night. A lot of the tariffs are finally being imposed. The market reacted positively; the Dow was up 100 points today ...…
I suspect there’s a hidden agenda behind the announcement in The Wall Street Journal op-ed by former Hillary Clinton aide Mark Penn that the Ole Gray Mare is actually eyeing another run for the White House in 2020. No, it’s not just that she would like to be president, as she averred on video last week in a weak moment, or that she has decided late in life to go full Bolshevik policy-wise. It is to establish her in the public mind as a serious candidate so that when she is indicted a hue-and-cry will arise that the move is a purely political act of revenge by the wicked Trump. Read More
In addition, during World War II, the Empire of Japan considered wildfires as a possible weapon. During the spring of 1942, Japanese submarines surfaced near the coast of Santa Barbara, California, and fired shells that exploded on an oil field, very close to the Los Padres National Forest. U.S. planners hoped that if Americans knew how wildfires would harm the war effort, they would work with the Forest Service to eliminate the threat.[7][16] The Japanese military renewed their wildfire strategy late in the war: from November 1944 to April 1945, launching some 9,000 fire balloons into the jet stream, with an estimated 11% reaching the U.S.[23] In the end the balloon bombs caused a total of six fatalities: five school children and their teacher, Elsie Mitchell, who were killed by one of the bombs near Bly, Oregon, on May 5, 1945.[24] A memorial was erected at what today is called the Mitchell Recreation Area.
This Economic Letter compares the current shift in assets with a similar shift that occurred during the long bear market of the 1970s. In particular, I ask whether the shift associated with today’s bear market is likely to last as long as the shift during the earlier one; that portfolio realignment occurred over six years, from 1968 to 1974 and was not substantially reversed until after the stock market began to rally in 1982. The answer arguably depends on some important differences between the two episodes: In the 1970s, the economic environment was characterized by low productivity growth and high inflation; today’s economy, in contrast, is expected to maintain a relatively high rate of productivity growth in the near term and low inflation. The improved fundamentals today should be more favorable for corporate earnings and stock prices and thus bring a quicker end to households’ recent shift away from stocks. In addition, the financial market innovations and regulatory changes over the past two decades that have lowered households’ transaction costs of participating in the capital markets should continue to favor stock ownership.

By staying out of this overvalued market, the only thing we can get is sore while the believers get rich. As it’s impossible to time the market, getting out now can be costly for a while, but is the smartest thing to do in the long run. Getting out of the S&P 500 will be extremely rewarding when the $2 billion daily inflows into Vanguard reverse and become outflows. With nobody buying, the drop will be huge.

RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/FAANG's Took a Big Bite Out of the MarketAnother Monday, another big down day for the U.S. stock market, it is turning out to be one hell of a quarter; not all of the declines happening in October. But as I said earlier, it doesn't have to be in October for th ...…


RATE AND REVIEW This Podcasthttps://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/the-peter-schiff-show-podcast/id404963432?mt=2&ls=1Alex Jones BannedAlex Jones was banned from iTunes, Facebook, YouTube - his entire YouTube Channel is gone! He had over a million subscribers. The Alex Jones videos on my YouTube channel where I appeared as a guest are still up, bu ...…
Years after the Civil War, significant local debt was issued to build railroads. Railroads were private corporations and these bonds were very similar to today's industrial revenue bonds. Construction costs in 1873 for one of the largest transcontinental railroads, the Northern Pacific, closed down access to new capital.[5] Around the same time, the largest bank of the country of the time, which was owned by the same investor as that of Northern Pacific, collapsed. Smaller firms followed suit as well as the stock market. The 1873 panic and years of depression that followed put an abrupt but temporary halt to the rapid growth of municipal debt.[6] Responding to widespread defaults that jolted the municipal bond market of the day, new state statutes were passed that restricted the issuance of local debt. Several states wrote these restrictions into their constitutions. Railroad bonds and their legality were widely challenged, and this gave rise to the market-wide demand that an opinion of qualified bond counsel accompany each new issue.

Swiss-born Marc Faber, now a resident in Thailand, holds a PhD in economics and is an investment advisor and fund manager through his firm, Marc Faber Ltd. He also writes a monthly investment newsletter, "The Gloom, Boom and Doom Report." As Money notes, Faber is consistently bearish, and frequently is called "Dr. Doom." He sees two big red flags right now.
In May, President Trump signed the rewrite of the 2010 Dodd-Frank law passed earlier by Congress with rare bipartisan support. The bill is the biggest rollback of bank rules since the financial crisis. According to the new law, lenders with less than $10 billion in assets will be exempted from the Volcker rule that bans proprietary trading. Read More
First I said I believed the US stock market would plunge in January, but I also said that January would not be the biggest drop, but just the first plunge that begins a global economic collapse: the big trouble for the economy and the stock market, I said, would show up in “early summer.” That’s when the stock market crash that began in January would take its second big leg down, and global economic cracks would become big enough that few could deny them. Read More
DHB has done several an article on Culver City and the surrounding areas. Don’t doubt that the RE spring summer season will want the affluent-esque Culver RE participant to push this area up during this time. If you can wait, do so. Don’t get mixed up in with the buying season this year. I would think we’ll see some interesting price drops in the still bubble areas this fall/winter. Of course I’m a guy stashing away money in a rent free place just watching, reading, learning and waiting.
The chart formation built in the course of the early February sell-off and subsequent rebound continues to look ominous, so we are closely watching the proceedings. There are now numerous new divergences in place that clearly represent a major warning signal for the stock market. For example, here is a chart comparing the SPX to the NDX (Nasdaq 100 Index) and the broad-based NYA (NYSE Composite Index). Read More
In our regular gold trading alerts, we focus on the short- and medium-term outlook and we rarely discuss the very long-term issues or price targets. The reason is simple – the long-term issues and price targets don’t change often, so usually there’s little new to say about them. Consequently, it’s been a long time since we last discussed our view on gold’s explosive upside potential. In fact, it’s been so long that those who do not take the time to read our analyses thoroughly and those who have been reading them for only a short while may think that we are bearish on gold in the long run. Or that we’re perma-bears. Naturally, it’s nonsense and those who have been diligently following our articles know it. What we’re aiming for is to help investors position themselves to make the most of the upcoming rally in the precious metals market and one of the best ways to do it is to help people prepare for the final bottom in gold. Read More

A campaign featuring Smokey and the slogan "Smokey Says – Care Will Prevent 9 out of 10 Forest Fires" began in 1944. His later slogan, "Remember... Only YOU Can Prevent Forest Fires" was created in 1947 and was associated with Smokey Bear for more than five decades.[6][7] In April 2001, the message was officially updated to "Only You Can Prevent Wildfires."[6] in response to a massive outbreak of wildfires in natural areas other than forests (such as grasslands), and to clarify that Smokey is promoting the prevention of unplanned outdoor fire versus prescribed fires.[8][4] According to the Ad Council, 80% of outdoor recreationists correctly identified Smokey Bear's image and 8 in 10 recognized the campaign PSAs.[9]
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RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/An Advanced Auction on the Sale of Stolen GoodsTomorrow is Election Day, or as H.L. Mencken once described the process, "An advanced auction on the sale of stolen goods". My wife has been bugging me for some time to urge people who listen to my podcast to go o ...…
Economic cracks big enough to drive a car industry into are opening up all over the globe. Trade gaps are opening up between major allies. Widening spreads between the dollar and other currencies are shredding emerging markets. As we start into summer, these cracks and several others described below have become big enough to get everyone’s attention, just as I said last year would become the situation.
But this strategy requires knowing when to sell, and bear markets can be very difficult to predict. As Ryan Miyamoto, a CFP® in Pasadena, CA, explains, “Selling at a loss is your biggest threat. A bear market will test your emotions and patience…The best strategy to control your emotions is to have a game plan. Start by creating a safety net that is not invested in the market. Seeing your accounts go down will be a lot easier if you know you have adequate cash on hand.”

That was the slogan used by then-presidential candidate Donald Trump and it propelled him to the most powerful and coveted job in the world – commander in chief of the United States. However, since Trump’s inauguration there has been much blustering and many unpopular policies that don’t seem to have been made with the promise of making America great again.
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT - Free Report)	manufactures and sells construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines, and diesel-electric locomotives for construction, resource, and energy and transportation industries. The company has a Zacks Rank #2. In the last 60 days, 11 earnings estimates moved north, while none moved south for the current year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings rose 8.4% in the same period. The company’s expected earnings growth rate for the current quarter and year is 44.6% and 69.3%, respectively.

It is a false premise that you can know when you’re in a bear market. Market observers are fond of looking at a downward sloping historical stock index chart and saying “the market is going down” or “we are in a bear market.” The truth is, the only thing you can say with certainty is that the market has gone down and perhaps we were in a bear market. Where it is going next or whether we are in a bear market is anyone’s guess.
Of these four potential causes, tightening by the Federal Reserve remains the key risk. Bond markets clearly believe this, as seen in the flattening of the yield curve (where long-dated bonds move lower, until they achieve a similar level to short-dated bonds). An inversion of the yield curve has generally been a sign of recession and usually pre-dates a bear market by around six months. We’re not there yet, but we are edging closer.
In 2010, McKinsey looked at 24 advanced economies that became extremely over-indebted. [The findings] show that an indebtedness problem cannot be solved by taking on additional debt. McKinsey says that a multi-year sustained rise in the savings rate, what they term austerity, is needed to solve the problem. As we all know, in modern democracies, that option doesn’t seem to exist.

I remember when America was a free country. You could get on an airliner without an ID. Driving licenses didn’t even have photos. If a friend was coming through your city on a flight and had a few hours layover, you could meet them inside the airport for lunch or dinner. You could meet friends, children, and relatives at the gate or see them off at the gate. Parents could actually put children on the plane and grandparents could take them off.


In spite of not normally looking back, I have had a look at a Newsletter that I wrote in July 2009 when gold was just over $900 and the Dow 9,100. It was called “The Dark Years are here” and received quite a lot of attention at the time. This was at the end of the sub-prime crisis when the Dow had just declined by 60% and gold had risen from $250 in 1999 to $925. Read More
ANSWER: You are correct, that concerns over U.S.-Russian relations, coming talks on the Korean Peninsula, action in Syria over a suspected chemical weapons attacks and uneasiness over trade conflicts would normally be the battle cry to buy gold.  Traditionally, this would form a cocktail of geopolitical uncertainty that would lead to screams buy gold! The uncertainty has not led to support for gold. They are proving to be a narrative that no longer seems to be factors for the bulls. Read More
Third, the mostly toothless SEC has allowed the creation of all manner of leveraged tools (negative ETFS and put options) for hedging and shorting on DOWN-TICKS. This is something that was banned from 1934 to 2007 for good reason, viz. deepening the Depression. Did you know that even Herbert Hoover wanted to curb short-selling? But not our SEC. Not now. Hedge funds and big fund managers and wealthy investors can readily buy these leveraged shorts on indexes in a blink of an eye, without regard to the last tick. So, of course, they use them as the 65-dma has finally turned down and as support levels, one after another fail. We saw exactly what this can do to the market in October 1987. It fell 30%+ in three weeks back then. And the DJI was not so over-extended. It had been in a bull market for less than five years. But it did have a new Fed Chairman (Greenspan), just like now, who needed to be properly baptized and schooled by Wall Street under fire, so that he would be tamed, not rock the boat and be henceforth pledged to shore up the market if it again collapsed.
I have preached, in fact I have over-preached, on staying agile in tough markets. Remember, when the beat-down comes your way, I want you all to cover the P/L on your screen with a post-it. This one little trick is something I do myself. By doing this, the trader allows him or herself to make tough, reasoned decisions without the constant distraction that one's profit/loss number can be.
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A special counsel needs to be appointed but because Sessions recused himself, Rosenstein would have to do it. However, Rosenstein is a witness and actor in this scandal, and certainly wouldn’t want to appoint a special prosecutor who could find criminality on his part. He has a clear conflict of interest and should be recused. Why the GOP doesn’t point this out is beyond me.
It often happens that gold and silver prices hit low points in June and December, before rallying sharply. The reason is not hard to understand: traders at the bullion banks close their books at the year and half-year ends and are almost certainly instructed by their superiors to reduce their trading positions to as low a level as possible. This is because the banks wish to report balance sheets that reflect low risk exposure for the purpose of making regulatory returns. Read More

However, as we explained last December, this is a low-ball estimate which "understates the potential losses" as it "does not include high-yield bonds, fixed-rate mortgages, and fixed-income derivatives", which would suggest that the real number is likely more than double the estimated when taking into account all duration products. As a reminder, Goldman calculated the entire duration universe at $40 trillion as of the summer of 2016, resulting in $2.4 trillion in losses for a 1% move. By now the number is far, far greater.

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