Peter Schiff is an internationally recognized economist specializing in the foreign equity, currency and gold markets. Mr. Schiff made his name as President and Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital. He frequently delivers lectures at major economic and investment conferences, and is quoted often in the print media, including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Barron’s, BusinessWeek, Time and Fortune. His broadcast credits include regular guest appearances on CNBC, Fox Business, CNN, MSNBC, and Fox News Channel, as well as hosting his own weekly radio show, Wall Street Unspun. He’s also the author of the bestselling books: Crash Proof 2.0, The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets:, and The Real Crash: America’s Coming Bankruptcy – How to Save Yourself and Your Country.
Japan urban land prices are back to levels last seen in the 1980s. You have to ask if there are parallels to our current condition. The first point we all have to agree on is that both economies had extraordinarily large real estate bubbles. For the United States the answer to this assumption is a big yes. We can run off a check list of how our real estate markets run similarities:
The first time I watched this I thought it was a joke – product of National Lampoon. Then the reality of it hit me like a ton of bricks. Is this really a productive use of Congressional time? The entire U.S. system is hurling toward a debt-induced financial and economic apocalypse. At the same time the Deep State, using Trump as its hand-puppet, is alienating the U.S. from the EU/NATO, this country’s last remaining allies. Read More
When the market started falling, I was tormented by the prospect that it was just another January 29-February 9 blip. That is, a tease for the bears which would simply result in bitter disappointment. Almost the entire world felt this way, and with good reason: the bears have been cheated for nine solid years, and the BTFD crowd has been winning, so why should it be any different this time? Why not sustain such a thing until, oh, the year 2397? Read More
I have had an interesting life, in the course of my retirement from business; my retirement happened somewhat by chance, in the year 1988; one Friday evening I presided a meeting of a group directors of Elektra, a Mexican company the property of my father and myself. We had had some 500 of these meetings in past years; they took place every two weeks. My son Richard was present, having been with the company since 1980. (He had arrived in 1980 from Dallas, Texas, looking for a post at Elektra, after being fired from his job – he had called his supervisor a fool, if not something worse. He was probably right in his judgment of his superior officer’s decisions, but of course saying what you think is not the best way to get along in business). Read More
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/Bearish SignalSo much for yesterday's dead cat bounce. All of the U.S. stock market averages came plunging down today, in fact they all closed below yesterday's lows. So even though we had those big rallies off the lows, today, we lost the entire gain and clos ...…
Building your confidence is essential in controlling your emotions as an investor, and the best confidence builder is to look at history. Even after the worst bear markets, stocks have always recovered and moved to new record levels. Recently, those recoveries have been surprisingly quick, often coming within just a few years. It's never easy to keep that in mind in the middle of a panic, but it's a fact you can use as the cornerstone of your long-term investing strategy to give you the confidence to stay the course.
One of the major indicators that a bear market may be on the way is the yield curve. While the yield curve is currently flattening out, and not inverting, by sitting at around 0.2%, it is right on the edge. When the yield curve is flat, that means that the 2-year spread and the 10-year spread for bonds (in the case of the U.S. Treasury yield curve) are around the same -- basically, that the long-term interest rates aren't much better than the short-term interest rates (which they ideally should be). Given that interest should be higher for lending the government money over a long time (giving up the opportunity to do other things with your money like invest in stocks), an inverted yield curve is a sign of danger and a possible bear market.
Warren Buffett’s favorite indicator is telling us that stocks are more overvalued right now than they have ever been before in American history. That doesn’t mean that a stock market crash is imminent. In fact, this indicator has been in the “danger zone” for quite some time. But what it does tell us is that stock valuations are more bloated than we have ever seen and that a stock market crash would make perfect sense. So precisely what is the “Buffett Indicator”? Well, it is actually very simple to calculate. You just take the total market value of all stocks and divide it by the gross domestic product. Read More
According to Richard Earle, author of The Art of Cause Marketing, the Smokey Bear campaign is among the most powerful and enduring of all public service advertising: "Smokey is simple, strong, straightforward. He's a denizen of those woods you're visiting, and he cares about preserving them. Anyone who grew up watching Bambi realizes how terrifying a forest fire can be. But Smokey wouldn't run away. Smokey's strong. He'll stay and fight the fire if necessary, but he'd rather have you douse it and cover it up so he doesn't have to."
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The “agreement” Ramsey sees comes from a number of major equity indexes hitting new highs at the same time. Not only have the Dow DJIA, +1.46% S&P 500 SPX, +1.55% Nasdaq COMP, +2.06% and Russell 2000 RUT, +1.21% been hitting repeated records of late, but so have a number of closely watched sectors, including transports DJT, +1.04% utilities DJU, +0.59% (which hit a record in September), and financials XLF, +2.08% which are trading at a 10-year high.
Capitalism is not chiefly an incentive system but an information system. The key to economic growth is not acquisition of things by the pursuit of monetary rewards, but the expansion of wealth through learning and discovery. The economy grows by accumulating surprising knowledge through the conduct of the falsifiable experiments of free enterprises.
The most valuable bubble empirically for the purpose of our elucidation has to be the Mississippi bubble, whose central figure was John Law. Law, a Scotsman whose father’s profession was as a goldsmith and banker in Edinburgh, set up an inflation scheme in 1716 to rescue France’s finances. He proposed to the Regent for the infant Louis XIV a scheme that would be based on a new paper currency. Read More
With the Dow Jones Index falling 665 points today, the risk of a large market correction has just increased significantly. Ironically, I discussed the very indicators that were setting up for a huge market correction in my newest video which I recorded on Tuesday. Unfortunately, I wasn’t able to get the video posted on my Youtube channel on Friday morning and now on my website until late in the evening.
Bulls are not killed off easily, They are strong, fierce and have real staying power. And this is what should be expected at a top of a secular bull market. Injured or weakened, the bull will still go on which is the case with many stock markets. Whilst some markets have peaked globally, others show strength. A week ago markets were ruffled by major falls, Was that the signal for the end of a multi decade bull or was it just another brief correction before the bull breaks out to much higher levels? With a further fall this week, the Dow is now down 2,000 points in October which certainly confirms that the bull is seriously injured, maybe fatally? Read More
The drastically slowing economy is threatening both corporate earnings growth and the bull market. If GDP grows at an anemic 2% average annual rate through 2019 and a 1.8% rate longer term, as forecasted by the Federal Reserve (per the Wall Street Journal), stock prices are likely to lose steam and tumble. Five famed investors see a bear market around the corner, and recently gave their views on how the downturn will begin and how low it might go, as reported by Money.com, a division of Time Inc. The five include Tom Forester, Jim Rogers, Marc Faber, Bill Gross and Rob Arnott.
I’ll admit I was somewhat skeptical when you claimed it was the “best conference,” but after last year, I couldn’t praise the SIC enough to my colleagues. (I think they actually got tired of me talking about it.) As a principle, I try NOT to attend the same events but rather experience new and different forums. However, I couldn’t resist returning for the SIC and have once again talked the ears off my fellow traders on the desk.
First, market timing is difficult and often unreliable. But the anonymous author behind the brilliant Philosophical Economics blog (his Twitter handle is Jesse Livermore, the name of a legendary investor of the early twentieth century who made and lost millions and committed suicide in 1940) came up with a terrific method. It’s well worth your while reading his post In Search of the Perfect Recession Indicator.
First, more NYSE stocks are bought on margin now than at any time since the 1950s, and Faber interprets this as a sign of overvaluation. Indeed, he finds that stock prices are "out of control," per Money, with the market P/E ratio nearly double its historical average. Once a selloff begins, Faber expects it to become an avalanche in which "asset holders will lose 50% of their assets [and] some people will lose everything," as Money quotes him.
The world is familiar with FANG (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google), then came FAANG, Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Google. But are you familiar with BANNG? We would like to introduce to the world a countercyclical group of stocks that could be the biggest winners if FAANGs lose. BANNG = Barrick Gold, Agnico Eagle, Newmont Mining, Newcrest Mining, and Goldcorp. They are the collection of gold stocks that would appear in all the major gold stocks ETFs, major indices in their respective countries. They have the liquidity, market cap, dividends, along with being the group of some of the largest gold miners in the world. Barrick and Newmont are the largest gold miners in the world. Both FAANG and BANNG stocks are in a global equity fund managers MSCI ACWI Index (All Country World Index). Read More
I often say that every great thinker has one “big idea.” George’s information theory of economics certainly qualifies as one of those. You’ve likely heard me mention how important exposing yourself to these big, powerful ideas is. Well, that’s exactly what I aim to do with my Strategic Investment Conference. I have invited George to speak at the SIC 2018 in San Diego, this coming March.
Same thing with the hiring of Bolton, a bellicose fire-brand who never met a war he did not want to enjoin, even though (or because) he himself never served in combat. He replaces a combat veteran, McMaster, who was expected to restrain Trump. Will Trump, who also never served in combat, might just want to start a quick little war some place to shore up his low approval ratings? This, too, worries Wall Street, which likes military preparedness a lot more than the uncertainties of actual war.
It may seem counterintuitive, but there's plenty of support for the argument that investors are actually doing the right thing by moving into bonds. It is annual portfolio rebalancing season and, given the huge gains in all stock markets around the world last year, portfolio allocations between stocks and bonds would have moved well away from target weightings.
Two weeks after we reported that GE had found itself locked out of the commercial paper market following downgrades that made it ineligible for most money market investors, the pain has continued, and yesterday General Electric lost just over $5bn in market capitalization. While far less than the $49bn wiped out from AAPL the same day, it was arguably the bigger headline grabber.
“The big lesson of history is that we have run the experiment of hyper-globalization before. In the late 19th century, many of the forces we are seeing [today] were at work: International migration reached levels we have begun to see again, the percentage of the US population that was foreign born reached 14%, and free trade and international capital flows reached new heights. At the time, the 1% were tremendously happy. Unfortunately, they underestimated the backlash that happens when globalization runs too far. The populist backlash [in the late 19th century] was just the beginning of a succession of crises that culminated in 1914 with WWI. War can be global too, and we will know the Liberal International Order has failed when it does what the last one did, and that is to produce a major conflict.”
I recently ran across a terrific chart in Grant’s Interest Rate Observer that got me thinking about Hyman Minsky and The Financial Instability Hypothesis. After remaining relatively unknown during the course of his lifetime, Minsky really came to fame in the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis as his hypothesis helped to explain what left most economists baffled: the fundamental cause of the crisis. Clearly, though, he has been forgotten just as quickly because, considering where we stand today, it’s obvious the economists with the greatest power to prevent another crisis have still not adopted his insights into their frameworks. Read More
Years ago when analysts used the term “globalist, there was an immediate recognition among liberty advocates as to who they were referring to. This was back when the movement for small government, the non-aggression principle and true free markets was small but growing. These days, it’s difficult to gauge how many liberty groups there are or even if they know what small government and the non-aggression principle represent, let alone what makes a “globalist” a globalist.
Last week, we shined a spotlight on a crack in the monetary system that few people outside of Switzerland (and not many inside either) were aware of. There is permanent gold backwardation measured in Swiss francs. Everyone knows that the Swiss franc has a negative interest rate, but so far as we know, Keith is the only one who predicted this would lead to its collapse (and he was quite early, having written that in January 2015).
Regardless of circumstance or family background, Tony believes everyone has the ability to make choices that affect their future positively or negatively. In The Millionaire Choice, he shares the principles and actions he applied during his journey to becoming a millionaire to reveal how, with the right financial knowledge and choices, anyone can become a millionaire.
There has never been a more fiscally clueless team at the top than the Donald and his dimwitted Treasury secretary, Simple Steve Mnuchin. After reading the latter's recent claim that financing Uncle Sam's impending trillion dollar deficits will be a breeze, we now understand how he sat on the Board of Sears for 10-years and never noticed that the company was going bankrupt.
The disability payment and stock option distribution are one-time events which unfortunately inflates the family’s actual ability to contribute to Julie’s education. The disability payment has to provide care for the rest of John’s life, he is currently 53. The stock distribution was used to purchase living quarters that included making the home handicapped ready. This was necessary since his only income is Social Security and his wife earns $14,000 per year. It would be impossible to qualify for a mortgage.
The Peerless Stock Market Timing system of automatic trading that I use has given what I call a “near Sell S9”. The “Peerless Sell S9” I invented has a pretty amazing track record. Here are recent examples. But there were many more in earlier years. October 1987 July 1990 July 1998 January 2000 February 2001 May 2002 July 2007 December 2007 March 2008 May 2008
One thing that turns a correction into a bear market can be investor psychology. Since much of investing, especially in the short term, is about trying to guess what other investors may be thinking and react accordingly, selling can breed more selling. That is, people who think other people are selling may try to get out of positions before they lose more value, depressing stock prices in the short term.
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.B - Free Report) , through its subsidiaries, engages in insurance, freight rail transportation, and utility businesses. The company has a Zacks Rank #2. In the last 60 days, three earnings estimates moved north, while none moved south for the current year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings increased 12.5% in the same period. The company’s expected earnings growth rate for the current quarter and year is 76.4% and 68.9%, respectively. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Many investors have missed out on what would have been extremely successful investments over the past several years because the stocks they like always seemed too expensive. If you like a stock's prospects but are convinced that its current valuation is just too high, put it on your wish list, along with a price at which you'd be comfortable buying shares. Then, if a bear market pushes the prices of the stocks you like lower, you'll be ready to make investments that you're comfortable holding for the long run. This can actually make you look forward to bear markets and the mouth-watering investment opportunities they can offer.
The benchmark Shanghai composite closed officially in bear market — referring to a decline of at least 20 percent from recent highs — on Tuesday. The smaller Shenzhen composite moved into bear market territory in February this year. The Shanghai and Shenzhen composites were down around 22 percent and 26 percent, respectively, from their 52-week highs, as of Asia afternoon trade on Wednesday.
Already rising for two weeks, following the Geithner announcement the DJIA had its fifth-biggest one-day point gain in history. "Tim Geithner went from zero to hero in a matter of just a few days" and reported that Bank of America stock led banking stocks with 38% one-day gains. On March 26, 2009, after just short of three weeks of gains which frequently defied the day's bad economic news, the DJIA rebounded to 7924.56. A rise of 21% from the previous low, this met the technical requirements to be considered a bull market. A Wall Street Journal article declared, "Stocks are on their strongest run since the bear market started a year and a half ago as investors continue to debate whether the economy and the markets have finally stabilized". Bloomberg noted the Obama administration's successes included the sale of $24 billion worth of seven-year Treasury notes and pointed out that March 2009 was the best month for the S&P 500 since 1974.
*** Since the attacks, we at the Daily Reckoning – as stunned as the next group of conspirators – have been asking a question similar to one I’m sure has crossed your mind at least once: “Why?” The Sovereign Society’s John Pugsley offers one point of view: “It is not hatred for freedom or materialism that caused terrorists to sacrifice their lives.” Pugsley quotes Joseph Sobran: “You delude and flatter yourself if you think someone hates you for your virtues.”
This moment is not just about leaving the Iran nuclear agreement, or even the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Paris climate agreement. It is not simply attributable to the unpredictable, childish impulses of the current president. Nor is it the result of Obama’s failure to enforce a red line in Syria, or “leading from behind” in Libya. It is not even about Bush’s invasion of Iraq with the goal of regime change, setting in motion the destruction of what political stability existed in the Middle East. Read More
Once a municipal advisor and bond counsel have been established, they will work together to identify an underwriter that will manage the distribution of the bonds. The underwriter is a broker-dealer that publicly administers the issuance and distributes the bonds. As such, they serve as the bridge between the buy and sell side of the bond issuance process. Underwriters connect issuers with potential bond buyers, and determine the price at which to offer the bonds. In doing so, most underwriters will assume full risk and responsibility for the distribution and sale of the bonds issued by the issuing agency. As such, underwriters play a central role in deciding the return and span of maturities, typically collect fees in exchange for their services. If the price is wrong, the underwriter is left holding the bonds.
The west line theory states that the shipping center of the world moves in a westward direction slowly over the centuries. It started in the mid east and has moved west through the Mediterranean, Europe, North America and now sits over Asia. A shipping center usually implies a production center as well giving that area great wealth. The U.S. was the previous shipping and production center in the world. We now find ourselves on the back end of prosperity and all that it entails.
DHB has done several an article on Culver City and the surrounding areas. Don’t doubt that the RE spring summer season will want the affluent-esque Culver RE participant to push this area up during this time. If you can wait, do so. Don’t get mixed up in with the buying season this year. I would think we’ll see some interesting price drops in the still bubble areas this fall/winter. Of course I’m a guy stashing away money in a rent free place just watching, reading, learning and waiting.
As I mentioned last week, I no longer feel that it is prudent or productive to discuss solutions to our economic woes. The problems that we already, or are about to face are no longer solvable. The system has been damaged to such an extent, that it cannot be fixed. The series of events that is responsible for the deterioration, decimation and decay of our economic system has already occurred. The genie, so to speak, cannot be put back in the bottle. Therefore, I think we should focus on strategies that might enable us to adapt and adjust in a manner that will allow the reset to be as painless as possible. Read More
Markets over the last few days have plunged, with U.S. stocks posting their worst two-day stretch in eight months. The three major indexes — the Dow, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite — all fell more than 5 percent between Wednesday and Thursday. Asia markets followed suit on Thursday, with mainland China markets tumbling more than 5 percent, and Japan's Nikkei index falling almost 4 percent.
Another Bear Market Before the ElectionThe odds are that we are going to have another bear market and we're going to have another recession and the odds are that both are going to start before the next election. What are the odds that Trump can be re-elected if we are in a recession and in a bear market? The only thing that Trump's got going fo ...…
In our regular gold trading alerts, we focus on the short- and medium-term outlook and we rarely discuss the very long-term issues or price targets. The reason is simple – the long-term issues and price targets don’t change often, so usually there’s little new to say about them. Consequently, it’s been a long time since we last discussed our view on gold’s explosive upside potential. In fact, it’s been so long that those who do not take the time to read our analyses thoroughly and those who have been reading them for only a short while may think that we are bearish on gold in the long run. Or that we’re perma-bears. Naturally, it’s nonsense and those who have been diligently following our articles know it. What we’re aiming for is to help investors position themselves to make the most of the upcoming rally in the precious metals market and one of the best ways to do it is to help people prepare for the final bottom in gold. Read More
The fundamental principal of information theory is that all information is surprise; only surprise qualifies as information. Sound familiar? George recognized the tie between entrepreneurial surprise and information theory: “Claude Shannon defined information as surprise, and Albert Hirshman defined entrepreneurship as surprise. Here we have a crucial tie between the economy and information theory. For the first time, it became possible to create an economics that could capture the surprising creativity of entrepreneurs.
Like the Doctor, I think home prices are resetting to fundamentals. When you lose your equity suddenly you don’t care if prices fall another 30 to 40 percent. With this growing contingent of negative equity homeslaves approaching critical mass you may see the following solution arise to reset home prices so our economy can regain its stability as people will have more money available for other parts of their budget that is now being confiscated for the Too Big To Fails.
While that’s not the highest level of P/E ratio ever compared to the late 1990s, the median price-to- sales ratio is at the highest level ever at 2.5 times. That’s about three standard deviations above the norm. You don’t have to be a math whiz to know that three standard deviations are way outside of normal bounds. Bad things happen when the rubber band is stretched that far.
5. The millennial generation is getting off to a slow start due to the tremendous burden of $1Trillion+ in student loans. The impact of all this debt is to create an artificial drag on spending for the largest generation in U.S. history right when we need them to pick up the slack from the second largest (and far more wealthy) generation that is retiring in droves.
Very timely, thanks. And trust Monevator to have warned of this ages ago. I too have a friend who buys these but as day trades (naughty, I know). But when we met up in the pub the other night after work he seemed very pleased with himself and his returns, though he sticks to bank stocks (I know..) Having said that, bank stocks for the next 6-12 months seem quite the trend amongst bankers now, at least in the States..
As Benjamin Westerman, CPA/PFS, CFP® in St. Louis, MO explains, many investors look to bond holdings and cash during a market downturn. “Bonds are your 'sleep at night' money that is protected during a bear market, while you wait for your investment portfolio to recover. In addition, if you have any money on the sidelines or are still in the accumulation/savings phase of your life, this is a great opportunity to invest in equities while stocks are on sale.”
Also, matter can neither be created or distroyed. Is the same true with wealth? Do we have a finite “pie” of wealth that moves from “family” to “family” over time? Let’s consider a given “life cycle” of family wealth. 2 to 3 generations work to build wealth. 2 to 3 generations maintain that wealth. 2 to 3 generations blow the family fortune…. in general. All of this happening when other “families” are building, some other “family” is blowing it.
It’s just amazing what is happening in China. And I think that it represents a clear and present danger to everyone with money at risk. Not just the Chinese. Not just the real estate markets in countries favored by the Chinese, such as Australia. Not just in the industrial metals markets – China has been kind of 100% of the demand for the margin for steel and the like. But this debt thing is a very, very important low-hanging dark cloud over the world, and we have all gotten used to it.