Our modeling systems are suggesting that Gold and Silver will begin a new upside rally very quickly. We wrote about how our modeling systems are suggesting this upside move could be a tremendous opportunity for investors over 2 weeks ago. Our initial target is near the $1245 level and our second target is near the $1309 level. Recent lows help to confirm this upside projection as the most recent low prices created a price rotation that supports further upside price action. What is needed right now is a push above $1220 before we begin to see the real acceleration higher.
Based on an analysis of the allocation of household assets over the whole 14-year bear market, it appears that the realignment of household assets took about six years, from 1968 to 1974. Figure 2 indicates how the inflation-adjusted values of assets in the households’ portfolios changed during that period. (Note that stock and bond totals include direct holdings as well as indirect holdings through mutual funds and pension funds.) Total financial assets fell by 7.5%, led by a 60% drop in equities. In the face of the weak stock market, households shifted into housing, which rose by 21% in value, and into monetary assets (that include cash, bank deposits, and money market mutual funds), which gained 24% in value. Bond holdings were little changed.
I think that paper money is in a secular bear market and that the institution of managed currency will be seen to be a species of pretense, if not outright intellectual fraud. And I use that word advisedly. And I think that come the dropping of the scales from the eyes of the money holders of the world, gold will do better against almost every currency.
7. The low interest rates that I can actually obtain right now will not be around much longer. With inflation and growing lack of confidence in US, interest rates will rise. This assumes the 80% scenario of inflation. It is possible Gary is right and we stay in low interest environment for a couple more years, but it is still likely to go up, along with inflation, at some point in the not too distant future.
Good read. I have read several of Mr. Kratter's works. His rules for trading keeps you focused and I have learned some good lessons from each of them. While I am not much of a 'short seller', I have made some decent money recently trading put options. If we are headed for a bear market this is a good book to help you make some money while others are just gritting their teeth!
Following a recent barrage of negativity from former Lehman trader and current Bloomberg macro commentator, Mark Cudmore, who warned that stocks are likely to continue sliding as a short squeeze in bonds sends yields lower, overnight his Bloomberg Markets Live colleague and macro commentator, Garfield Reynolds, echoed Cudmore's growing pessimism, urging readers to "Rest Up This Easter Because Markets Face an Ugly Q2" and that "the worst for markets is yet to come" for four reasons he lists below.
Just like the gold rushes of California between 1848 and 1855, Canada’s Klonike of 1896 to 1899, and Western Australia’s of the 1890s, the world is experiencing a frenzy to obtain mining rights in pursuit of today’s “gold,” namely rare earth minerals. Used for components of electric vehicle batteries, mobile telephones, flat-screen televisions, flash drives, cameras, precision-guided missiles, industrial magnets, wind turbines, solar panels, and other high-tech items, rare earth minerals have become the type of sought-after commodity that uranium and plutonium were during the onset of the atomic age. Read More
The millions of people that have lost their home and will lose their home are probably in households with children in many cases. Some may be in college and looking to buy in ten years. The notion that housing is always a great investment runs counter to what they saw in their lives. Will they even want to buy as many baby boomers put their larger homes on the market to downsize? Will they clear out the shadow inventory glut? Now I’m not sure how things are in Japan but many of our young households here are now coming out with massive amounts of student loan debt.
George is well versed in several areas, so I’m sure we will get into many intense discussions on topics ranging from technology to finance to economics. Yet, George is only one of the speakers that attendees will get to hear and meet. I really hope you can be there to experience it in person, with me. If you’re ready to learn more about the SIC 2018, and the other speakers who will be there, you can do so, here.
Living Wealthy is a digital publication of Wealth Factory where we share timely trends, news stories, and current events that affect your life. We help you see the impact, personally and socially, and give you possible solutions to avoid any negative effects. We also give you additional links and resources if you want to investigate further. The purpose is not to be the last word on any topic. Rather it’s to help us all stay informed of what’s going on in the world without letting those events negatively impact your lifestyle. Our goal is to help us all live richer, fuller lives from a position of financial strength. This allows you to weather economic hard times, and seize whatever new opportunities arise in our changing world.
It is a false premise that you can know when you’re in a bear market. Market observers are fond of looking at a downward sloping historical stock index chart and saying “the market is going down” or “we are in a bear market.” The truth is, the only thing you can say with certainty is that the market has gone down and perhaps we were in a bear market. Where it is going next or whether we are in a bear market is anyone’s guess.
Yet in many ways, bad news for bonds is good news for equities. Investors seem to turn to stocks when bond prices are falling, as changes in bond yields and equity performance have been positively correlated since 1998. Plus, an increase in inflation expectations that's driven by economic growth is usually a good sign for equities, especially when expected inflation crosses the 2 percent threshold.
Last week more than a handful of subscribers alerted me to Jim Rickards’ beliefthat China has pegged the SDR (an IMF reserve currency) Gold price from 850-950 SDR/oz and this is what is impacting the Gold price. Rickards writes that the peg is too cheap given the scarce supply of Gold and that the IMF will print trillions of SDRs during the next global financial crisis. Read More
None of this means stocks were at a bottom Wednesday. At this point, we may need the classic “big puke moment” of capitulation to wipe out the remaining weak hands, restore enough fear and respect for the market and clear the air. No one knows when that will happen. But watch for a big whoosh down at an open, followed by a quick and sharp reversal, and some gains.
This article considers the juxtaposition of colliding worldviews and the unified message that voters across the political spectrum are sending. While many investors are aware of the political change afoot, it seems that very few have considered how said changes might affect the economy and financial markets. In this article, we share some of our thoughts and encourage you to give the topic more consideration going forward. Read More
This book will make self investors think about how to allocate their own investments. Markets have really fallen apart since the book went to press. Of course commodity sectors, international and emerging markets have fallen as much or further and the dollar has risen. I think Peter Schiff's analysis deserves a lot of merit and the selloffs in the overbought commodities and emerging markets areas gives investors a great opportunity to reanalyze their own portfolios. Great read!
The end game is upon us. With our aging demographic and continued employment loss, the US will have to maintain a policy of easy money and more QE. This will not bode well for real estate as employment is a key factor for paying a mortgage. The kids coming out of college arent finding good jobs and this will continue. So it’s monetary debasement with rising commodity costs. For as far as the eye can see.
Now, I wouldn’t be me if I didn’t throw in my own two Satoshis: Dr. D claims that “..everyone has an equal opportunity to solve the next calculation..”, but while that may perhaps have been sort of true at the very start, it isn’t now. It’s not true for the computerless or computer-illiterate, for those too poor to afford the electricity required by bitcoin mining, and for various other -very large- groups of people. Read More
Today by far the deadliest weapon of mass destruction in Washington’s arsenal lies not with the Pentagon or its traditional killing machines. It’s de facto a silent weapon: the ability of Washington to control the global supply of money, of dollars, through actions of the privately-owned Federal Reserve in coordination with the US Treasury and select Wall Street financial groups. Developed over a period of decades since the decoupling of the dollar from gold by Nixon in August, 1971, today control of the dollar is a financial weapon that few if any rival nations are prepared to withstand, at least not yet. Read More
Bears have always operated more freely in the United States than in Europe. Despite a ban on short sales by the New York Legislature in 1812, the bear operator was a familiar figure in the nineteenth century. A few gained celebrity. Jacob Little, a saturnine figure, was a leading bear operator in the first half of the century. Known variously as the “Great Bear,” the “Old Bear,” and the “Napoleon of Wall Street”, Little also operated on the long side, and perfected the technique of catching shorts in corners, which became a characteristic feature of the U.S. market. Little was destroyed in the “Western Blizzard” crash of 1857.
That was the slogan used by then-presidential candidate Donald Trump and it propelled him to the most powerful and coveted job in the world – commander in chief of the United States. However, since Trump’s inauguration there has been much blustering and many unpopular policies that don’t seem to have been made with the promise of making America great again.
For the past few weeks, I’ve been intensely focused on what I believe to be a double cross in COMEX gold futures by JPMorgan of other trading entities, particularly other commercial participants. I would define the double cross as JPMorgan positioning itself so flawlessly so as to be nearly perfect in its execution, including the avoidance of any widespread knowledge of what has occurred. After all, a double cross always includes the element of surprise and this one promises to be a doozy. Read More
The Dow is now gyrating after it plunged to 16,450 Friday and experienced an intra-day swing of near 1,100 points on Monday, leaving it more than 10 percent below its record close in May. The Dow hit an 18-month low at 16,106 on Monday morning before it trimmed losses. The NASDAQ is down 11 percent from a record high reached earlier this year and is on pace for its worst month since November 2008.
Globalization has been bad for these sections of society because it changed the relative value of capital and labor. When capital and goods could flow freely between the US and emerging market countries, the value of labor in the US fell dramatically. Today, we are at a point where labor share of income has fallen to an all-time low of 57%. That means a growing fraction of the gains have been going to capital, and those who have it.
"Now investors are wondering if the housing market's problems will spill over into the economy. 'Housing is the one wild card that could, if it takes consumer confidence down with it, take the economy into a recession,' says James Stack of InvesTech Research... Could the housing troubles yank the broad stock market into a morass just as the tech-stock implosion did in 2000?... 'The parallel is amazing,' Stack says."
In the months ahead, knowing that you can depend on us to guide you through Market turbulence will be most reassuring. In this market, Buy & Hold can only lead to financial ruin. When stressed, we humans tend to fall back on strategies that worked in the past, despite a vastly differing market environment than any time since 1929. With Exceptional Bear, you choose which asset-class ETFs to employ, and which to exclude.
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/Merchandise Trade Deficit Largest Trade Deficit on RecordToday's rally had to overlook the bad news that came out today. I was watching CNBC this morning just before the news was announced and the anchor said, "We've got a lot of news coming out at 8:30 and I ...…
The United States is effectively bankrupt, but that doesn’t matter to the GOP. Once evangelists of fiscal responsibility and scourges of deficit spending, Republicans today glory in spilling red ink. The national debt is now $20.6 trillion, greater than the annual GDP of about $19.5 trillion. Alas, with Republicans at the helm, deficits are set to continue racing upwards, apparently without end. Read More
We have written numerous times before about how the East is preparing for a return to some form of a gold standard while the West tries to hang on to a dying system of debt based fiat currency. And with the heads of the IMF and Bank of England are both signalling that the world is well underway towards the transition to a new global financial system, the battle lines are being drawn as to which side will win out.
Historically, many things have been used as money. Cattle have been used as money in many societies, including Roman society. That’s where we get the word “pecuniary” from: the Latin word for a single head of cattle is pecus. Salt has been used as money, also in ancient Rome, and that’s where the word “salary” comes from; the Latin for salt is sal (or salis). The North American Indians used seashells. Cigarettes were used during WWII. So, money is simply a medium of exchange and a store of value. Read More
(Kitco News) - Gold prices are down and hit another six-month low in early-afternoon U.S. trading Thursday. However, prices have moved up from their daily lows. An appreciating U.S. dollar on the foreign exchange market continues to squelch buying interest in the precious metals. However, the gold market is now short-term oversold and due for a least a decent corrective upside bounce very soon, and perhaps as early as Friday. August Comex gold futures were last down $3.60 an ounce at $1,270.80. July Comex silver was last up $0.011 at $16.32 an ounce.
After nearly a decade of endless market boosting, manipulation and regulatory neglect, all of the trading professionals I personally know are watching with held breath at this stage. The central banks have distorted the processes of price discovery and market structure for so many years now, that it’s difficult to know yet whether their grip on the markets has indeed failed. Read More
Trade wars are usually bad for all parties in the end but between the beginning and the end there can be some surprising developments. Human actions and delusions on the part of the public can produce strange results at times. All of our systems are based on trust. When that trust is lost, everything will come crashing down. Until then, things will go on. Read More
The Kindle version has a lot of errors. I have the hardback of this book and it is a lot cleaner then the Kindle Version. First it's listed as a John Clark Book. It's not. Look at the Hardback. Second, there are more spelling errors/ formatting errors then seems possible. I think Clancy is turning over in his grave over this. For instance several chapters, sentences and words start out with an extra letter or the the wrong letter as this real example here. "Fit was a wark night . . ." Instead of "It was a dark night." It doesnt detract from the amazing story, it just makes it a little annoying as you read along, especially as you reach the end and realize just how many errors there are. I have a first edition hardback that doesn't have that many errors. Not sure what happened. But you should enjoy it as long as you don't mind the errors. Enjoy!
So when the sky really starts to fall, smart places for serious money could be a simple money market (cash equivalent). You won't make much, but at least you won't lose anything either! Think of it like a lightning storm over a football field where your investments are the players on the field. Sometimes it's best to put your team in the locker room so no one gets hit by lightning!
JOIN PETER at the New Orleans Investment Conferencehttps://neworleansconference.com/conference-schedule/NAFTA was the Worst Deal in World History?I want to talk about Donald Trump's new trade deal. When Donald Trump was running for President, he said that NAFTA (North America Free Trade Agreement) was the worst trade deal ever negotiated ever b ...…
Indeed, in today's fraught environment it can be well and truly said that the chartmonkeys have become deaf, dumb and blind to everything happening on Planet Earth external to the gaming tables where they slosh around in their cups. After all, to use the latest evidence, what could be more indicative of a political system fixing to implode than this weekend's utterly phony and disgustingly undeserved deification of the late Senator John McCain? Read More
A high-level assassination attempt in Russia has the newly elected Ryan sending his most trusted eyes and ears—including antiterrorism specialist John Clark—to Moscow, for he fears the worst is yet to come. And he’s right. The attempt has left the already unstable Russia vulnerable to ambitious forces in China eager to fulfill their destiny—and change the face of the world as we know it...
As this stock market correction progresses, it is natural to consider what levels may be effectivein halting the decline. We have recently taken a stab at a couple potential “support” levels in the U.S. market with excellent success, so far. Those posts include Monday’s The Mother Of All Support Levels on the broad Value Line Geometric Composite which held precisely, as well as a few Premium Posts at The Lyons Share covering key sectors, which also held on cue: Market Leaders At Must-Hold Levels and Finally Some Support To Bank On (if you’d like to see these posts, shoot us an email at [email protected] and we’d be happy to share). Read More
Given the underwriter's role as a price marker, they also serve as a strategic partner to the issuing team, analyzing market conditions and trading, to help decide how and when the bonds should be sold. In many cases there will be a co-manager who works with the underwriter to help provide the capital to buy the issuance. In large issuances, the underwriter(s) will often put together a syndicate or selling group. This would consist of a group of bond salespeople who are skilled in the art of determining the right price for an issuance and a group of investors who’ll be willing to buy those bonds.
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I have had a request from Mrs Macleod to write down in simple terms what on earth is going on in the world, and why is it that I think gold is so important in this context. She-who-must-be-obeyed does not fully share my interest in the subject. An explanation of the big picture is also likely to be useful to many of my readers and their spouses, who do not share an enduring interest in geopolitics either.
After the Brexit vote, in early July 2016, ten-year treasury bonds were yielding 1.37%. Today, they’re yielding 2.85% with an annualized return over that period of approximately negative 4.5% annualized. Ray Dalio, the founder of the hedge fund Bridgewater Associates and author of “Principles,” explains, “A 1% rise in bond yields will produce the largest bear market in bonds that we have seen since 1980-1981.” Investors around the globe are asking big questions about what these changes in interest rates mean, and David does a great job of explaining the issues on this episode of Money For the Rest of Us.