This is just the beginning of a long trip that will take us to South America (where we get to see a financial crisis underway in Argentina)… Germany (where we hope to find out more about how Germans are preparing to tighten up at the European Central Bank)… and Bermuda, where we are scheduled to give a speech to a group of readers at the Legacy Investment Summit. Read More

RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebookhttps://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/Dovish Speech Given by Jerome PowellThe catalyst for the rise in gold and the decline in the dollar, I believe, was the dovish speech given by Jerome Powell today in Jackson Hole. Whether or not the speech is perceived as dovishly as I believe it is, I think we ...…


Silver is a precious metal that tends to move when no one expects a break to the upon or downside. Silver also can lag moves in markets that send signals that the price should respond or display head fake price action frustrating those with long or short positions. Gold moved to a low in mid-August when the dollar index traded to a high of 96.865. While silver also fell to a lower low for 2018 in mid-August, gold recovered, and silver followed only to fail once again and declined to a lower low for this year as gold remained above its nadir. Read More
On the anniversary of finding Smokey Bear in the Capitan Gap fire, Marianne Gould from the Smokey Bear Ranger District, Eddie Tudor from the Smokey Bear Museum and Neal Jones from the local Ruidoso, New Mexico radio station created "Smokey Bear Days" starting in 2004.[55] The event celebrates the fire prevention message from the Smokey Bear campaign as well as wilderness environment conservation with music concerts, chainsaw carving contests, a firefighter's "muster" competition, food, vendors and a parade. The "Smokey Bear Days" celebration is held in Smokey's hometown of Capitan, New Mexico the first weekend of May every year.[56]
Gold’s breakout from its giant 5-year base pattern has had to wait for the dollar rally to run its course, which it now appears to have done, and this being the case, gold is now free to break out into a major bull market that looks set to dwarf all prior ones. We have in the past described gold’s base pattern from 2013 as a complex (multi-shouldered) Head-and-Shoulders bottom and while this description is still valid, it is perhaps more simply described as a Bowl or Saucer pattern, that is shown on its latest 10-year chart below. Read More
To be sure, with human nature being what it is, thinking about a bear market is the last thing most of us are inclined to do right now. With the S&P 500 SPX, +1.55%  just 1.5% below its all-time high, and some other indexes having already eclipsed their previous all-time highs from earlier this year, we’re more inclined to be celebrating than planning for the worst.
If you believe that there will be a significant change in global economic paradigms over the next 10 years, consider this book as part of developing an applicable investment strategy. Basically the author is focusing on commodities as they will do well in an inflationary period and, reading between the lines, commodities never go to zero (unless one is so leveraged up that one is forced to sell when commodities sell). Fortunately for us small investors the author does provide a road map to utilize his strategy by way of ETFs. With the government rolling the printing presses to shore up and stimulate our economy, inflation will result. This book examines the issues with inflation and how to invest in response.

A bear market rally is a trend that tends to trick investors into thinking the bull market is on the rise again -- but is, in fact, an upward trend where the stock market posts gains for a couple days or weeks but drops again. There may be several bear market rallies within a regular bear market, but an upward trend can't be considered a bull market until market prices rise 20% or more. 
JOIN PETER at the New Orleans Investment Conferencehttps://neworleansconference.com/conference-schedule/Democrat Women Screaming in AgonyBrett Kavanaugh, over the weekend was confirmed by the Senate, and there were some Democrat women in the gallery watching the vote and they were just screaming in agony; that this was such a terrible thing. I ...…
The above shows how Vanguard is just lucky to operate in the U.S. where the economic growth has been a bit stronger than in the Netherlands, and it enjoys the self-reinforcing effect of $2 billion coming into the market every day. However, the bulk of Vanguard’s success was made in the 1980s and 1990s, while the returns since 2000 have been minimal.

The key thing to realize is that the debt cycle plays the main role in the business cycle. When debt and interest rates are low, consumers and businesses start buying and expanding, which results in economic growth. When that goes on for a while and debt and interest rates get too high, consumers and businesses run into problems, which results in recessions and bear markets.

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Other than the continual drama surrounding the Trump presidency, things have been quite calm for the past couple of years. We have been enjoying a time of peace, safety and relative economic prosperity that a lot of Americans have begun to take for granted. But great trouble has been brewing under the surface, and many are wondering if we are about to reach a major turning point. Our planet is being shaken physically, emotionally and financially, and it isn’t going to take much to push us over the edge. Read More
They have been calling for that time-frame since 2008. I really wish there were some accountability with economists, politicians, etc that make these kinds of predictions. It seems to me that they are all trying to, intentionally or just incompetently, by grabbing straws out of thin air, boost the economy by touting nonsensical optimistic predictions to get people to spend and buy houses.
A bear market rally is a trend that tends to trick investors into thinking the bull market is on the rise again -- but is, in fact, an upward trend where the stock market posts gains for a couple days or weeks but drops again. There may be several bear market rallies within a regular bear market, but an upward trend can't be considered a bull market until market prices rise 20% or more. 
Such behavior is rare, however. To illustrate, consider the several hundred stock market timers monitored by my Hulbert Financial Digest. These are professionals, needless to say, rather than amateurs like the rest of us. It’s their job to identify market tops and bottoms, which is yet another way of saying that they will be more heavily exposed to equities at those bottoms than at tops.
Justice Anthony Kennedy’s retirement, leading to President Donald Trump’s nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, has thrown progressives, the Democratic Party and the news media into an out-and-out tizzy. The online magazine Slate declared, “Anthony Kennedy Just Destroyed His Legacy as a Gay Rights Hero.” The New York Times’ editorial board said about a second Trump court appointment, “It is a dark moment in the history of the court and the nation, and it’s about to get a lot darker.”

Economic effects of the September 11 attacks (2001) Stock market downturn of 2002 Chinese stock bubble of 2007 United States bear market of 2007–09 Financial crisis of 2007–08 Dubai debt standstill European debt crisis 2010 Flash Crash 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami (Aftermath) August 2011 stock markets fall 2011 Bangladesh share market scam 2015–16 Chinese stock market turbulence 2015–16 stock market crash 2016 United Kingdom EU referendum (Aftermath) 2018 Cryptocurrency crash
Lost in the largely meaningless political Kabuki theatre being staged on Capitol Hill is the fact that the economy is deteriorating. Real average weekly earnings in July declined for production and non-supervisory workers. It was down 0.01% from June to July and down 0.22% from July 2017. For all employees, real average hourly earnings declined 0.20% from June to July but was flat year over year. Read More

The coming gold and silver surge is guaranteed. It is not a question of IF but only WHEN. Initially, the imminent revaluation of the precious metals will have nothing to do with an investment mania but with the total mismanagement of the world economy. A spectacular rise in the metals is just a reflection of the mess the world is in. But as the paper market fails in gold and silver, there will be panic and manic markets.


He is, in addition, the author of a pair of political biographies: John Adams: Party of One, a life of the second president of the United States (Farrar, Straus, 2005) and Mr. Speaker! The Life and Times of Thomas B. Reed, the Man Who Broke the Filibuster (Simon & Schuster, 2011). His new biography of Walter Bagehot, the Victorian man of letters and financial journalist, will be published in 2018.
Even though the gold price increased in 2018, the top gold miners production declined while costs continue to escalate. Output at three of the top gold miners in the world fell in the first half of 2018 compared to the same period last year.  With rising costs due to higher energy prices, on top of decreasing production, the top gold miners free cash flow declined precipitously in 2018.
The set of sanctions that the U.S. began placing on Iran back in 2010 can be best thought of as a monetary blockade. It relied on deputizing U.S. banks to act as snitches. Any U.S. bank that was caught providing correspondent accounts to a foreign bank that itself helped Iran engage in sanctioned activities would be fined. To avoid being penalized, U.S. banks threatened their foreign bank customers to stop enabling Iranian payments or lose their accounts. And of course the foreign banks (mostly) complied. Read More
So what are the prospects for another rally in bonds?  In our view, it is not a rosy picture.  For the first time in a very long time the fundamentals and technicals of investing in bonds have become aligned.  The global economy has transitioned into a period of synchronised growth, spare capacity is being used up and unemployment is close to the lows seen for many years.  All that suggests inflation risks are on the upside.  Deflation risks are waning and sooner or later this will need to be priced into bond prices. On the technical side, central banks are now winding down their quantitative easing programmes.  This means that Governments will have to finance their deficits from private investors rather than relying on central banks.  The increase in supply of bonds on a global scale to institutional investors runs into trillions of US Dollars over the next few years, made worse by the fact that Governments are now relaxing their fiscal straightjackets, imposed after the financial crisis.
The entire defense sector reports this week. At least the big guys do. Margin compression and the potential for lost contracts weigh heavy on these stocks right now. This is one area where I will be slow to withdraw amid weakness. Domestic and allied monies intended for this space will not draw down in a Cold War environment. Lockheed Martin (LMT) reports this morning. The numbers should be good. However, the firm has a number of deals in place with Saudi Arabia. My plan is to wait for the call before doing anything stupid. Boeing (BA) , General Dynamics (GD) , and Northrop Grumman (NOC) all report tomorrow morning, while Raytheon (RTN) will go to the tape on Thursday morning.
Led by the S&P, the next move in global equities is a black-hole plunge. Rather than protect long portfolios with Puts, why not liquidate them entirely? The Fed's stimulatory hand is played-out, & the impending Crash will strike with such force that the Silver Bullet from the past will no longer suffice to resuscitate the market. Since the market forecasts the economy more accurately than any economist, this time it's we, who must bite the Silver Bullet. Genuine Bull Markets reflect economic expansion by sub-dividing into 5-waves; Bear Market Rallies, like the Roaring Twenties, and Bernanke's megalomaniac Put are illusory, 3-wave upsides within larger Bear Markets. Only a 5-wave Crash is final. Artificial stimulus is an illicit drug, for which the Fed is the Global Pusher . Rather than more ?hair of the dog?, addicted economies can only heal via cold turkey abstinence. In return for numbing the pain of economic contraction, we have prevented healing the addiction, to dramatically aggravating the economy's ability to heal. By distorting economic incentives to divert capital away from the most worthy ventures, stimulus has exacerbated excess to perpetuate illusory Bubbles. The price of stimulus is a far more austere & enduring Depression, required to wring-out the excess via a rapid, downward GDP spiral to back-out stimulus in its entirety. Once the dollar collapse gains momentum to become universally recognized, the massive exodus out of the Dollar-denominated assets will force interest rates to skyrocket, to balloon the national debt out of control. As documented by Rogoff and Reinhart documented, This Time is NEVER different - eight centuries of financial Folly -a US default of its foreign debt is inevitable. Just as the 1929 withdrawal of US gold reserves from Germany intensified bitter depression, a debased dollar will kill the US ability to borrow on international markets, to topple the American Empire

Feb 26, 2018 Of all the Timing Systems in these Public Stockcharts, only the Exceptional Bear Channel accurately forecasts the whip-saw reversals at the turning point. Most timers are now Bearish, just when a reversal is well in process, to a new all-time high in the major indexes. A better reason to follow me does not exist. There are multiple, head-fakes at the irregular Top
We’re a wee while on now from this article, and I would say that things have moved on a little now. It is now possible to buy an “Infinite Turbo” from SG which gives you the straightforward return of a short or long position on say, the FTSE 100, with the leverage of your choice. Each ETF has its own “knockout” where you lose all your capital if your trade goes significantly against you, but you can’t lose more than your capital stake. Could be a useful tool for those with strong hearts wanting to eliminate the random number generating mechanism of daily products.

Quite simply, I think stock investors looked at the surfacing of real problems in their favorite FAANG stocks and, so, failed this time to find any fun in the frivolous fiction of government factoids. GDP reportage has been fake for years, and it is no less fake under Trump than under any other president. Fake is where you find it. You can find it as much on Fox as on CNN.  Read More
Smokey's name and image are used for the Smokey Bear Awards, which are awarded by the U.S. Forest Service, the National Association of State Foresters (NASF), and the Ad Council, to "recognize outstanding service in the prevention of human-caused wildfires and to increase public recognition and awareness of the need for continuing fire prevention efforts." [47][48]
Traffic in Knoxville, Tennessee, can be a bear anytime, but in late spring the slowdowns on Neyland Drive are often caused by Canada geese. — Joelle Anthony, Audubon, November-December 2004 True, the rally has been around the corner since Memorial Day. But bears have dominated market sentiment for so long since the Federal Reserve Board raised interest rates last February, that traders feel the market is headed for a major tectonic shift … — Anthony Ramirez, New York Times, 19 July 1994 Hikers in the woods are far more likely to wear a bell to deter bears than to take precautions against bees. But bears kill two to seven people in North America annually, bee stings kill 600 to 900. — Allan J. Davison, Chemical & Engineering News, 15 Mar. 1993 a mother bear and her cubs The bears outnumbered the bulls on Wall Street today.
Forget the porn star scandals and possible Russian collusion in an election over fifteen months ago. Most Americans don’t give a damn about either but from turning on cable news, you would think that’s all that is happening in the world. Cable news is out for ratings and those kind of things sell. What you won’t see much of are some of the harsh realities facing Americans and preventing us from becoming truly great. Read More
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For the study, researchers from Suranaree University of Technology in Thailand derived the extract of broken bones from the fruit pods of the plant. They looked at the effects of broken bones plant extract on the adipogenic and biomolecular change in 3T3-L1 adipocytes. They used the cell line 3T3-L1 to establish the potential toxic effects of broken bones plantextract during adipogenesis, the differentiation of pre-adipocytes into adipocytes. Read More
Two important institutional changes since the late 1960s also have affected the composition of financial asset holdings of households. One is the growing prevalence of pension funds. Since 1960, the share of financial assets that pension funds comprise grew from a little under 7% to 27%. This growth has been due in part to the introduction of 401k, 403b, and Keogh accounts that have allowed households to make tax deductible contributions to retirement plans with significant control over the disposition of those investments. In addition, many large employers have switched from defined-benefit to defined-contribution retirement plans, again allowing households to decide how much of their retirement funds to invest in the stock market. These changes began to accelerate in the 1970s. Prior to these changes, many businesses either adopted “pay-as-you-go” pension plans with no significant contributions to the stock market, or restricted their investments to ultra-safe assets, such as government securities.
The chief bad idea in economics today is that most economists regard the discipline as a “pure science.” Economists have succumbed to what I call physics envy: They want their less-than-precise discipline to be considered a hard science, too. Unfortunately, economics—which concerns itself with unpredictable human behavior—is fundamentally incompatible with science.

RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/Look Carefully at the Price IndexThe GDP number came out yesterday; 3/5% did slightly beat the consensus of 3.3%, but remember, for a while the Atlanta Fed was looking for a print in the 4's. But the New York Fed was at 2.2%, so the print was much higher than ...…
In the current issue of Grant’s we have in the headline of the front pages today “Xi Jinping’s Poisoned Chalice.” This is the Xi Jinping (whose name I think I am butchering in pronunciation) is of course the new president for life. And our sense is that one-term presidencies in China are better than two terms, and that better than either would be emigration. So we think that Xi Jinping is the president for life in the wrong country.
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