I have my doubts about the sustainability of growth in the US because of the rising debt burden and anemic growth in productivity and the working age population. With these headwinds, I believe it will be almost impossible to achieve sustained growth, like what we experienced in the 1990s. However, I concede that growth could continue to rise over the next 2–3 years.
Astute readers remember how we published our Gold Price Forecast For 2018 almost a year ago when the price of gold was testing its support $1200 to $1220 level. We were bearish at that point in time. However, right after our publication the futures market, one of our leading indicators, changed its shape. We updated readers about this event, and early this year the gold futures market confirmed its new trend which was also reflected in the price of gold. Read More
“Back in the heyday of the old Soviet Union, a phrase evolved to describe gullible western intellectuals who came to visit Russia and failed to notice the human and other costs of building a communist utopia. The phrase was “useful idiots” and it applied to a good many people who should have known better. I now propose a new, analogous term more appropriate for the age in which we live: useful hypocrites. That’s you and me, folks, and it’s how the masters of the digital universe see us. And they have pretty good reasons for seeing us that way. They hear us whingeing about privacy, security, surveillance, etc., but notice that despite our complaints and suspicions, we appear to do nothing about it. In other words, we say one thing and do another, which is as good a working definition of hypocrisy as one could hope for.”—John Naughton, The Guardian Read More
The Kindle version has a lot of errors. I have the hardback of this book and it is a lot cleaner then the Kindle Version. First it's listed as a John Clark Book. It's not. Look at the Hardback. Second, there are more spelling errors/ formatting errors then seems possible. I think Clancy is turning over in his grave over this. For instance several chapters, sentences and words start out with an extra letter or the the wrong letter as this real example here. "Fit was a wark night . . ." Instead of "It was a dark night." It doesnt detract from the amazing story, it just makes it a little annoying as you read along, especially as you reach the end and realize just how many errors there are. I have a first edition hardback that doesn't have that many errors. Not sure what happened. But you should enjoy it as long as you don't mind the errors. Enjoy!
Niall last spoke at my conference two years ago. He was bullish on the global economy at a time when almost everybody—including me—was bearish. I really don’t know what Niall is thinking about right now, or what new insights he has in store for SIC attendees. I am truly excited to welcome him back and I hope you can be there with me to experience it, first-hand. If you would like to learn more about attending the SIC 2018, and about the other speakers who will be there, you can do so here.
The haunting Gary Jules version of the Tears for Fears’ Mad World speaks to me in these tumultuous mad times. It must speak to many others, as the music video has been viewed over 132 million times. The melancholy video is shot from the top of an urban school building in a decaying decrepit bleak neighborhood with school children creating various figures on the concrete pavement below. The camera pans slowly to Gary Jules singing on the rooftop and captures the concrete jungle of non-descript architecture, identical office towers, gray cookie cutter apartment complexes, and a world devoid of joy and vibrancy. Read More
The Spanish government is about to fall after the Ciudadanos party decided to join PSOE (socialist) and Podemos in a non-confidence vote against PM Rajoy. Hmm, what would that mean for the Catalan politicians Rajoy is persecuting? The Spanish political crisis is inextricably linked to the Italian one, not even because they are so much alike, but because both combine to create huge financial uncertainty in the eurozone.
As I mentioned above, when there is a strong consensus on a topic, it almost always pays to seek out an independent view. While automation will render some jobs obsolete in the coming decades, I believe it will also create a lot of opportunities. Karen and Macro Trends’s groundbreaking research into the declining cost of distance has convinced me of that.
That was the slogan used by then-presidential candidate Donald Trump and it propelled him to the most powerful and coveted job in the world – commander in chief of the United States. However, since Trump’s inauguration there has been much blustering and many unpopular policies that don’t seem to have been made with the promise of making America great again.
Griffin’s book is a humdinger and will certainly upset brainwashed American super-patriots, but it throughly documents how Washington’s aggression toward other lands is covered up by politicians, media, and court historians with moral verbiage. In my view the hubris, arrogance, and ignorance of “American exceptionism” has the world locked on a trajectory to its extinction in nuclear Armageddon. Read More
Is the U.S. Government hiding a massive gold deposit in the Chocolate Mountains in California? Well, according to a few top-notch conspiracy theorists, the U.S. Congress passed the Desert Wilderness Protection Act that has cordoned off this vast gold discovery from the public. Unfortunately, we may never know if this mammoth gold deposit exists due to the clandestine nature of our government… or will we? Read More
Warren Buffett’s favorite indicator is telling us that stocks are more overvalued right now than they have ever been before in American history. That doesn’t mean that a stock market crash is imminent. In fact, this indicator has been in the “danger zone” for quite some time. But what it does tell us is that stock valuations are more bloated than we have ever seen and that a stock market crash would make perfect sense. So precisely what is the “Buffett Indicator”? Well, it is actually very simple to calculate. You just take the total market value of all stocks and divide it by the gross domestic product. Read More
The trade war has barely just begun, and yet significant ripple effects are already being felt all across the U.S. economy. Once thriving businesses are on the verge of failure, workers are being laid off, and some sectors of the economy are witnessing enormous price hikes. Right now the mainstream media is absolutely fixated on the drama surrounding the recently concluded Trump-Putin summit meeting, but the consequences of this trade war will ultimately be far more important for the lives of most ordinary Americans. As more tariffs continue to be implemented, this will perhaps be the biggest disruption to the global economic system that we have seen in decades. Perhaps you have not been affected personally yet, but for many Americans this trade war has changed everything. For example, just consider the plight of soybean farmer Tim Bardole… Read More
The financials were helping to lead the decline. Again we have Morgan Stanley at a new 52-week low, down 3.3%. Goldman Sachs down 3.6%, a new 52-week low. But really, the biggest losers on the day were the tech stocks. These have been the stand-outs. This is what has been holding up the market - the FAANG stocks, all of these technology infotech stocks - and a lot of people were actually describing them irrationally as a "safe havens". I couldn't believe it when people were saying that tech stocks were the new "safe havens". When you hear stuff like that, you know you're close to the end.
Phil Town is an investment advisor, hedge fund manager, 3x NY Times best-selling author, ex-Grand Canyon river guide and a former Lieutenant in the US Army Special Forces. He and his wife, Melissa, share a passion for horses, polo, and eventing. Phil’s goal is to help you learn how to invest and achieve financial independence. You can follow him on google+, facebook, and twitter.
Based on an analysis of the allocation of household assets over the whole 14-year bear market, it appears that the realignment of household assets took about six years, from 1968 to 1974. Figure 2 indicates how the inflation-adjusted values of assets in the households’ portfolios changed during that period. (Note that stock and bond totals include direct holdings as well as indirect holdings through mutual funds and pension funds.) Total financial assets fell by 7.5%, led by a 60% drop in equities. In the face of the weak stock market, households shifted into housing, which rose by 21% in value, and into monetary assets (that include cash, bank deposits, and money market mutual funds), which gained 24% in value. Bond holdings were little changed.
Dr. D: The money, the unaccountable, uninhibited release of tokens can do more than just buy centuries of hard labor in seconds, it‘s also a method of control. Banks, our present issuers of money, can approve or destroy businesses by denying loans. They can do this to individuals, like denying loans to unpopular figures, or to whole sectors, like gun shops. They can also offer money for free to Amazon, Facebook, and Tesla, which have no profitable business model or any hope of getting one, and deny loans to power plants, railroads, farms, and bridges as they fall into the Mississippi.
This week’s collapse of the Turkish lira has dominated the headlines, and it is widely reported that this and other emerging market currencies are in trouble because of the withdrawal of dollar liquidity. There are huge quantities of footloose dollars betting against these weak currencies, as well as commodities and gold, on the basis the long-expected squeeze on dollar liquidity is finally upon us.
As a savvy investor, you should be especially wary of inappropriate holdover patterns from the long Bull Market. Perhaps you sense that it may be time to take back control of your finances, in the same way legendary hedge fund manager, George Soros, came out of retirement to rescue his own fortune. Like him, you will be able to sleep soundly, knowing your living standards are secure.
Still, bear market rallies may seem as if they are a rising bull market, but until the market shows gains of 20% from the bear market low, it can't be considered a bull market. And, while bear markets occur during the contraction phase of the business cycle, bull markets typically happen when the business cycle is expanding (shown by several indicators, like lower inflation and increased employment, among others).
Eventually, probably when a recession comes along and crushes corporate earnings, it will become clear that earnings and the high valuations attached to them are unsustainable. When that happens, the same unsophisticated investors blindly plowing their money into the market will panic and rush to the exits similarly to what happened in 2001 and 2008/2009. Therefore, we can expect a minimum 50% drop in the S&P 500 and long term returns—I’m talking about 20 to 30 years—below 4% per year given that the S&P 500 earnings yield is 3.83%.
The Washington Post ran a semi-humorous obituary for Smokey, labeled "Bear", calling him a transplanted New Mexico native who had resided for many years in Washington, D.C., with many years of government service. It also mentioned his family, including his wife, Goldie Bear, and "adopted son" Little Smokey. The obituary noted that Smokey and Goldie were not blood-relatives, despite the fact that they shared the same "last name" of "Bear". The Wall Street Journal included an obituary for Smokey Bear on the front page of the paper, on November 11, 1976, and so many newspapers included articles and obituaries that the National Zoo archives include four complete scrapbooks devoted to them (Series 12, boxes 66-67).
First, market timing is difficult and often unreliable. But the anonymous author behind the brilliant Philosophical Economics blog (his Twitter handle is Jesse Livermore, the name of a legendary investor of the early twentieth century who made and lost millions and committed suicide in 1940) came up with a terrific method. It’s well worth your while reading his post In Search of the Perfect Recession Indicator.
Here is a question for any and all of you that have ever purchased a lottery ticket or played the slots or bet on a horse: If you had proof that the outcomes were all rigged, would you still play? If someone showed you a video of pit bosses stacking decks or tampering with dice, would you ever enter that establishment again? If your wife or mother or employer knew that you would constantly blow your paychecks in a rigged casino, would you ever be able to face them? The answer to all of the above-mentioned scenarios is a resounding "NO!" Yet millions of people (albeit that figure is rapidly shrinking) are still committing many hundreds of millions of dollars every week to the Crimex Casino, which has now proven that every single input into determining prices for gold and silver (Bitcoin, too) is completely controlled by the bullion banks, the Crimex bosses and the regulators. Read More
Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN - Free Report) engages in the retail sale of consumer products and subscriptions in North America and internationally. The company has a Zacks Rank #2. In the last 60 days, 19 earnings estimates moved up, while none moved down for the current year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings soared 39.3% in the same period. The company’s expected earnings growth rate for the current quarter and year is 526.9% and 290.8%, respectively.
I’ve read all of Matt Kratter’s books. Why? I used the simple but powerful strategies in Covered Calls, Rubber Band Stocks, Monthly Cash Machine, and Rocket Stocks. The Options strategies realized an annual yield exceeding 12% coupled with Stock Equity strategies yielding an annualized 90%. I simply followed the strategies because I’m a novice, not the brightest bulb. These strategies were adequate for advancing stock markets but there are now signs of an approaching market in decline. The BEAR has been observed prowling so I read Matt’s newest selection Bear Market Trading Strategies. I’m now informed, ready for the declining markets and am enthused. Matt has again gifted his readers with his talent of deconstructing the complex so a rational novice may continue to conservatively place trades. He advises on how to avoid negative-carry and using Options cautiously, trading with the trend. Matt advises of the dangers and promotes rationality and caution. He tells you the best times to buy and sell using simple highest price/closing price indicators. Then Matt tells the reader how to determine when the Bear is returning to the den. He devotes a chapter on how to short momentum stocks using the simple 50 and 200 day moving averages and provides historical data as confirmation. Matt wraps up by providing a strategy of buying certain stocks that other investors are selling. There are strategies in this book that I would be uncomfortable with but there are other strategies that I am comfortable with. I’ll choose and carefully implement those comfortable strategies and, given my past profitable experiences with Matt’s books, I’ll make a few nickels. ...and be sure to view Matt's videos!
The watchdog found that "valuations are also elevated" in bond markets. Of particular interest is the OFR's discussion on duration. Picking up where we left off in June 2016, and calculates that "at current duration levels, a 1 percentage point increase in interest rates would lead to a decline of almost $1.2 trillion in the securities underlying the index."