vt (pret bore; pp borne) tolerar, aguantar, soportar; (to give birth to) dar a luz; child-bearing age edad fértil; to — down pujar; Bear down as if you were having a bowel movement.. Puje como si estuviera defecando (haciendo popó); to — weight soportar peso; You shouldn’t bear weight with your left leg for two weeks..No debe soportar peso con su pierna izquierda durante dos semanas.
Matthew has written a most timely book to prepare us for the bear market. Within the pages are nuggets of wisdom to help us identify the onset of bear markets and what strategies to take or not to take in such market volatility, to either stay safe or to profit from the stocks carnage in a bear market. Those with strong stomachs can consider the profit making strategies. For the rest of us, we wait for the golden opportunities at the bottom of the bear market to profit. What I like about the book is the wealth of timely advice and reality checks to temper our irrational exuberance In stock trading. Thank you Matthew for your timely and wise guidance, as always. Highly recommended book for your financial health.
On the anniversary of finding Smokey Bear in the Capitan Gap fire, Marianne Gould from the Smokey Bear Ranger District, Eddie Tudor from the Smokey Bear Museum and Neal Jones from the local Ruidoso, New Mexico radio station created "Smokey Bear Days" starting in 2004. The event celebrates the fire prevention message from the Smokey Bear campaign as well as wilderness environment conservation with music concerts, chainsaw carving contests, a firefighter's "muster" competition, food, vendors and a parade. The "Smokey Bear Days" celebration is held in Smokey's hometown of Capitan, New Mexico the first weekend of May every year.
Your correct. Lump into the mix of policies coming out of Sacramento and DC. RE in California is in for another leg down starting this summer. Problem will be even worse if QE is halted by the Fed. Any upward trend in home prices may start happening in the 2015-2020 time frame. The toxic sludge that was the no mortgage down to minimal down is still in the system. As long as that is the case, kiss any correction goodbye.
While the precious metals are totally off the radar by the majority of investors, silver is setting up for one major bull market. Yes, it’s hard to believe as the gold and silver prices have been trending lower while the broader markets grind up higher, but if we look at the fundamental and technical indicators, the stock market and precious metals are now at extreme opposites.
Last week, yields on the German 10-year Bund and 10-year U.S. Treasury notes hit record highs for 2015, rising 85 basis points and 72 basis points, respectively, since their lows this year. Rather than trying to deter the selloff, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi fanned the flames on June 3, saying that European bond investors should expect greater volatility amid a stronger economic outlook and higher inflation expectations. Credit Suisse equities analysts take things a step further, forecasting that bonds are entering a multi-year bear market.
Capitalism is not chiefly an incentive system but an information system. The key to economic growth is not acquisition of things by the pursuit of monetary rewards, but the expansion of wealth through learning and discovery. The economy grows by accumulating surprising knowledge through the conduct of the falsifiable experiments of free enterprises.
JOIN PETER at the New Orleans Investment Conferencehttps://neworleansconference.com/conference-schedule/NAFTA was the Worst Deal in World History?I want to talk about Donald Trump's new trade deal. When Donald Trump was running for President, he said that NAFTA (North America Free Trade Agreement) was the worst trade deal ever negotiated ever b ...…
In my News and Views from the Nefarium last Thursday (Jan 11th), I prefaced my remarks about the Franco-Chinese summit by pointing out that these past two weeks have seen some strange stories, stories suggesting that while the war between the great powers for hegemony may not have gone hot, it's at least much warmer than before. For example, in the space of a few days, we've seen (1) the US launch, and as quickly lose, a classified space satellite; (2) ships colliding in the Aegean Sea and in the Persian Gulf, and (3) Russia shoot down over a dozen drones which it claims "Syrian militants" shot at Russian bases. Read More
Why has real estate been such a drag on the overall Japanese economy? First, Japan’s unemployment rate stabilized after these bubbles burst but it shifted to a large temporary or contract based employment economy. One third of Japanese workers operate under this new world. Relatively low security with employers and this has spiraled into lower income and money to finance home purchases. The fact that the U.S. has such a large number of part-time workers and many of the new jobs being added are coming in lower paying sectors signifies that our economy is not supportive of the reasons that gave us solid home prices for many decades. I think this is a key point many in the real estate industry fail to emphasize. How can home prices remain inflated if incomes are moving lower?
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RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/Dow Could Not Hold Onto the GainAfter yesterday's, I think 550 point drop in the Dow, the market bounced back a bit today. I think at one point earlier in the day the Dow managed to gain over 200 points, but it could not hold on to that gain. It closed down ju ...…
A great example of what we can expect can be taken from Japan. In 1989, the Japanese stock market index (Nikkei) was at 38,916 points with a P/E ratio of 60. This is almost double the valuation of the S&P 500, but if we apply the S&P 500’s current P/E ratio of 26.14 to the Nikkei in 1989 it would be at 16,954 points. Fast forward almost 30 years and the Nikkei is at 18,331 points for an imaginary total return of 8% if equal the current S&P 500 P/E ratio.
A little more than thirty years ago Tom Clancy was a Maryland insurance broker with a passion for naval history. Years before, he had been an English major at Baltimore’s Loyola College and had always dreamed of writing a novel. His first effort, The Hunt for Red October—the first of the phenomenally successful Jack Ryan novels—sold briskly as a result of rave reviews, then catapulted onto the New York Times bestseller list after President Reagan pronounced it “the perfect yarn.” From that day forward, Clancy established himself as an undisputed master at blending exceptional realism and authenticity, intricate plotting, and razor-sharp suspense. He passed away in October 2013.
The economies of the world are at an inflection point. Enough data points have now presented themselves to be able to see the outlines of a major shift in the markets of the world. We are at a pay attention moment. There comes a time when a successful investor must make some hard decisions to position himself to be able to take advantage of opportunities down the road. The markets are telling us now is such a moment.
What happened? Bank of America keeps a running tally of so-called “signposts” that signal a bear market coming ’round the bend. This month, the analysts checked two more off the list, bringing the total to 14 out of 19 indicators. The latest signals include the VIX volatility index climbing above 20, and surveys of investors showing that many think they will continue to go up, a classic contrarian indicator.
By the end of June 2011, the Fed had only reached its half-way mark in money printing. It was shortly thereafter that the Fed had implemented its “operation twist.” Operation twist consisted of selling the Fed’s short term holdings and using the proceeds plus extra printed money to buy Treasuries at the long-end of the curve – primarily 10-yr bonds. Read More
Robert J. Shiller, a 2013 Nobel laureate in economics, is Professor of Economics at Yale University and the co-creator of the Case-Shiller Index of US house prices. He is the author of Irrational Exuberance, the third edition of which was published in January 2015, and, most recently, Phishing for Phools: The Economics of Manipulation and Deception, co-authored with George Akerlof.
It seems a lot of the otherwise sellers hold off selling and banks being very slow releasing REOs. They seem to think market will improve in San Diego in the next few months or later. Many of the ones on the market are so over priced they don’t go anywhere and price reductions are slow to come. There is definitely a stalemate between sellers and buyers in San Diego market.
The mirage that we are still in a strong bull market, and not on the brink of a bear one, has more to do with this year’s fast-rising earnings than a sharply falling stock market, which is typically what leads investors to run for safety. The classic definition of a bear market is when a stock market average such as the Dow or the S&P 500 has dropped 20 percent from its highs. But that’s probably not the best one. The more important factor to consider when gauging whether investors are feeling upbeat about stocks, and, by extension, the economy, is what they are willing to pay for the earnings that those companies generate.
I’ve read all of Matt Kratter’s books. Why? I used the simple but powerful strategies in Covered Calls, Rubber Band Stocks, Monthly Cash Machine, and Rocket Stocks. The Options strategies realized an annual yield exceeding 12% coupled with Stock Equity strategies yielding an annualized 90%. I simply followed the strategies because I’m a novice, not the brightest bulb. These strategies were adequate for advancing stock markets but there are now signs of an approaching market in decline. The BEAR has been observed prowling so I read Matt’s newest selection Bear Market Trading Strategies. I’m now informed, ready for the declining markets and am enthused. Matt has again gifted his readers with his talent of deconstructing the complex so a rational novice may continue to conservatively place trades. He advises on how to avoid negative-carry and using Options cautiously, trading with the trend. Matt advises of the dangers and promotes rationality and caution. He tells you the best times to buy and sell using simple highest price/closing price indicators. Then Matt tells the reader how to determine when the Bear is returning to the den. He devotes a chapter on how to short momentum stocks using the simple 50 and 200 day moving averages and provides historical data as confirmation. Matt wraps up by providing a strategy of buying certain stocks that other investors are selling. There are strategies in this book that I would be uncomfortable with but there are other strategies that I am comfortable with. I’ll choose and carefully implement those comfortable strategies and, given my past profitable experiences with Matt’s books, I’ll make a few nickels. ...and be sure to view Matt's videos!
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Municipal bonds provide tax exemption from federal taxes and many state and local taxes, depending on the laws of each state. Municipal securities consist of both short-term issues (often called notes, which typically mature in one year or less) and long-term issues (commonly known as bonds, which mature in more than one year). Short-term notes are used by an issuer to raise money for a variety of reasons: in anticipation of future revenues such as taxes, state or federal aid payments, and future bond issuances; to cover irregular cash flows; meet unanticipated deficits; and raise immediate capital for projects until long-term financing can be arranged. Bonds are usually sold to finance capital projects over the longer term.
And while bear markets typically don't last long (most bear markets in the past have only lasted around 10-15 months), they can mean big losses. Bear markets are not the same as market corrections -- when the market drops 10% from a previous high -- but they can be started by a market crash (which happens when prices drop 10% in one or two days).
When the market started falling, I was tormented by the prospect that it was just another January 29-February 9 blip. That is, a tease for the bears which would simply result in bitter disappointment. Almost the entire world felt this way, and with good reason: the bears have been cheated for nine solid years, and the BTFD crowd has been winning, so why should it be any different this time? Why not sustain such a thing until, oh, the year 2397? Read More
First, momentum stocks are not done getting hit. As psychology turns more bearish, fewer investors are willing to bet that trees will grow to the sky at uber-hot (pun intended) public companies like Tesla Motors and Netflix. Each is down roughly 22 percent from 52-week highs. So, investors trying to make quick money should avoid momentum names. Second, timing the bottom of a correction or bear market is next to impossible. Guessing that $100 is the floor for Netflix, for example, is a dicey business; there really is no way to know what other investors are thinking in real time.
The entire defense sector reports this week. At least the big guys do. Margin compression and the potential for lost contracts weigh heavy on these stocks right now. This is one area where I will be slow to withdraw amid weakness. Domestic and allied monies intended for this space will not draw down in a Cold War environment. Lockheed Martin (LMT) reports this morning. The numbers should be good. However, the firm has a number of deals in place with Saudi Arabia. My plan is to wait for the call before doing anything stupid. Boeing (BA) , General Dynamics (GD) , and Northrop Grumman (NOC) all report tomorrow morning, while Raytheon (RTN) will go to the tape on Thursday morning.
Tom Clancy's books have always been a favorite. I loved Jack Ryan, and I know he was a central figure in this novel as well. However, it appears I no longer have the patience to read until it becomes interesting for me to continue. Couldn't keep up with the characters, and although I hate to say this, I was just plain bored. A book is "good" for me if it is difficult to put down.
At first he was called Hotfoot Teddy, but he was later renamed Smokey, after the icon. New Mexico Department of Game and Fish Ranger Ray Bell heard about the cub and took him to Santa Fe, where he, his wife Ruth, and their children Don and Judy cared for the little bear with the help of local veterinarian Dr Edwin J. Smith. The story was picked up by the national news services and Smokey became a celebrity. Many people wrote and called asking about the cub's recovery. The state game warden wrote to the chief of the Forest Service, offering to present the cub to the agency as long as the cub would be dedicated to a conservation and wildfire prevention publicity program. According to the New York Times obituary for Homer C. Pickens, then assistant director of the New Mexico Department of Game and Fish, he kept the cub on his property for a while, as Pickens would be flying with the bear to D.C. Soon after, Smokey was flown in a Piper PA-12 Super Cruiser airplane to the National Zoo in Washington, D.C. A special room was prepared for him at the St. Louis zoo for an overnight fuel stop during the trip, and when he arrived at the National Zoo, several hundred spectators, including members of the Boy Scouts, Girl Scouts, photographers, and media, were there to welcome him.
But as Sam Stewart of Seven Canyons Advisors points out, it’s never the clock that brings an end to an economic cycle. “It’s always excesses,” he says. Stewart sees “a hint” of excess here and there. But nothing like what we saw leading up to the housing-related market crisis 10 years ago. The kind of excesses that typically bring down the economy and the market may still be years away, he says.
The trade war has barely just begun, and yet significant ripple effects are already being felt all across the U.S. economy. Once thriving businesses are on the verge of failure, workers are being laid off, and some sectors of the economy are witnessing enormous price hikes. Right now the mainstream media is absolutely fixated on the drama surrounding the recently concluded Trump-Putin summit meeting, but the consequences of this trade war will ultimately be far more important for the lives of most ordinary Americans. As more tariffs continue to be implemented, this will perhaps be the biggest disruption to the global economic system that we have seen in decades. Perhaps you have not been affected personally yet, but for many Americans this trade war has changed everything. For example, just consider the plight of soybean farmer Tim Bardole… Read More
If we look back at the history of bear markets in the United States, then they were usually preceded by lengthy, strong bull markets. Those bull markets encouraged most investors to pile into the stock market and into high-yield corporate bonds, with the highest concentrations close to the tops. We can see that recently with all-time record inflows into U.S. equity funds--especially passive equity funds including ETFs--in 2017. Thus, as each bear market begins, people have huge percentages of their money in the stock market.
So, all in all, I’d say that the technicals, the new tools to aggressively short large blocks of stocks on down-ticks, the uncertainties now of a trade war with China plus the seeming jump in the chances for a shooting war somewhere, all these things, are almost certain to bring a 20% decline, but it could quickly get out of hand and match what happened in 1987. That is the real danger.
BTW, in this, the VA with its 0 downpayment loans has 1 (yep 1) REO, FHA with its 3 1/2% down had 1 (yep 1 REO), Freddie has 4 REOs and Fannie has 14. The other 50 or 60 REOs are the product of Wall St and securitization. Here it is NOT the government-backed 0 -3 1/2% down loans that are defaulting. Not is it the loans by the community banks – they have only 2 or 3 between the 3 -4 community banks here. What is defaulting are the loans written by the Big Banksters and sahdy otufits like OptionOne, Countrywide etc – most of which those lenders kept and a smaller number they peddled to Fannie/Freddie who are making them take them back.
Bear markets don't announce themselves. They just happen. They begin with a sell-off when that most folks dismiss as a brief correction. As they deepen, the question then becomes how far down will it go. From my many decades of experience, it's been obvious that most investors are so shocked by what's going on that they do nothing. Or, at the point of greatest pain (the bottom), they sell. Very few have the fortitude to view the situation unemotionally and move their money to where the best opportunities are. During bear markets, the best opportunities are in stocks, since the sell-off has reduced values to much more attractive levels. But it's the rare investor who has the courage to buy in. Most are paralyzed by fear.
Written by seasoned Wall Street prognosticator Peter Schiff–author of the bestselling book Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse–The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets reveals how you should protect your assets and invest your money when the American economy is experiencing perilous economic downturns and wealth building is happening elsewhere. Filled with insightful commentary, inventive metaphors, and prescriptive advice, this book shows you how to make money under adverse market conditions by using a conservative, nontraditional investment strategy.
"The most remarkable flows are into bonds," said David Santschi, CEO of Trimtabs, which provided CNBC with the preliminary fund flow data, which also show strong flows into U.S. equity and international equity portfolios this month. "Bond funds are down in the past four months," he said. "The biggest mispricings in the world today are in bonds, not stocks."
While $1 billion may not sound like much when compared with the Peoples’ Bank of China total holdings of US Government debt of more than $1 trillion or to the US Federal debt today of over $20 trillion, it’s significance lies beyond the nominal amount. It’s a test run by both governments of the potential for state financing of infrastructure and other projects independent of dollar risk from such events as US Treasury financial sanctions. Read More
This chart does a simple comparison of Osaka condo and Tokyo condo prices which does not reflect the entirety of the Japanese housing market. Yet the path seems very similar. Large areas with a real estate frenzy that hit high peaks and have struggled ever since. In fact, if we look at nationwide prices we realize that Japan has seen a 20 year bear market in real estate:
Eighth Interest Rate HikeAs expected, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the eighth time, today. The rate is now 2 to 2.25 percent, so I guess the midpoint is 2.125%. The move was highly anticipated, of course, even I expected the Fed to raise rates. At this point I had been expecting that for some time ever since the Fed first began ...…
My hope is that President Trump will read Knowledge and Power and give a copy to all cabinet members—as Ronald Reagan did with Wealth and Poverty. Maybe I’m too optimistic, but if we began basing economic and monetary policy on George’s information theory of economics, I believe there would be a complete revitalization of the American entrepreneurial spirit.
Now. According to Edward Jones, the last one began nearly eight years ago, twice the post-1900 average duration between bear markets. The last real correction in the S&P was in 2011, when a one-two punch of European debt fears and Congress' nearly shutting the government before cutting federal spending with unemployment still at 9 percent caused a 21.6 percent drop in the S&P between May and October. Depending on the index you use, that one may have even been a bear market: The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by "only" 19 percent.
In our 2018 Year Ahead, we compiled a list of bear market signposts that generally have occurred ahead of bear markets. No single indicator is perfect, and in this cycle, several will undoubtedly lag or not occur at all. But while single indicators may not be useful for market timing, they can be viewed as conservative preconditions for a bear market. Today, 13 of 19 (68%) have been triggered.
Whether it's stated or not, one source of the inchoate outrage triggered by Russian-sourced purchases of adverts on Facebook in 2016 (i.e. "meddling in our election") is the sense that the U.S. is sacrosanct due to our innate moral goodness and our Imperial Project: never mind that the intelligence agencies of all great powers (including the U.S.) meddle in the domestic affairs and elections of other nations, including those of allies as well as geopolitical rivals-- no other great power should ever meddle with U.S. domestic affairs and elections. Read More
“Exhilarating...You’d have to be numb not to be impressed by the scale of [Clancy’s] ambition, his feel for the way information now flashes instantaneously across the globe, his mastery of technological developments. No other novelists is giving so full a picture of modern conflict, equally adeptly depicting those at the top and bottom of military and intelligence systems.”—The London Sunday Times
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/Look Carefully at the Price IndexThe GDP number came out yesterday; 3/5% did slightly beat the consensus of 3.3%, but remember, for a while the Atlanta Fed was looking for a print in the 4's. But the New York Fed was at 2.2%, so the print was much higher than ...…
The world is familiar with FANG (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google), then came FAANG, Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Google. But are you familiar with BANNG? We would like to introduce to the world a countercyclical group of stocks that could be the biggest winners if FAANGs lose. BANNG = Barrick Gold, Agnico Eagle, Newmont Mining, Newcrest Mining, and Goldcorp. They are the collection of gold stocks that would appear in all the major gold stocks ETFs, major indices in their respective countries. They have the liquidity, market cap, dividends, along with being the group of some of the largest gold miners in the world. Barrick and Newmont are the largest gold miners in the world. Both FAANG and BANNG stocks are in a global equity fund managers MSCI ACWI Index (All Country World Index). Read More
The satan-worshipping Khazarian mafia is in a frenzy of fear as military tribunals loom. As a result, they are offering the world (as if it were theirs to give) to China in exchange for protection, according to Gnostic Illuminati and Asian secret society sources. In addition to this, they are threatening to unleash pandemics, blow up the Yellowstone Caldera, set off a massive EMP attack, and cause other mayhem in a futile effort (as these attempts will be neutralized) to blackmail themselves out of the reach of long-delayed justice. Also, they are carrying out a foolish and widely derided smear campaign to derail the appointment of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. Read More