Three of the four worst bear markets were preceded by high valuation. Among the four worst bear markets with over 40% losses, three of them including the Great Depression in 1929, dot-com bubble in 2000 and subprime crisis in 2007 started with somewhat extreme market valuation. The only exception is the 1973 bear market caused by Arab oil embargo and subsequent recession, but it had an above-average PE to start with as well.
“What a difference a day makes”! Well we didn’t get the sun and the flowers like in Dinah Washington’s song but more like storm and showers. For the ones who don’t remember Dinah, Amy Winehouse made a more recent version of the song. Last week I warned investors again, in the strongest tone possible, of the risks in markets. So what triggered it? Was it the Fed’s interest rise? Or was it the trade war with China? Or maybe it was Kavanaugh?

RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/Look Carefully at the Price IndexThe GDP number came out yesterday; 3/5% did slightly beat the consensus of 3.3%, but remember, for a while the Atlanta Fed was looking for a print in the 4's. But the New York Fed was at 2.2%, so the print was much higher than ...…
Swing Trading means scaling-out of over-bought  and overvalued assets, to enable buying back-in at lower prices. Exceptional Bear's strategy strives to  reduce average cost and risk, while continually compounding profit.  By anticipating, and positioning ahead of the herd, the market often comes to us. Swing Trading the right asset classes is the essence of managing a recession-proof and depression-proof portfolio. In the likely event of a Crash, this low-risk strategy will "make" a relatively few investors for a lifetime, while the vast majority of former investors will be broken for a lifetime. 
Over the past four decades, globalization has enabled the transfer of millions of jobs from the US to various emerging-market countries. It changed the relative value of capital and labor all over the world. The top earners started getting a larger share of their income from investments than from their labor. They own the “means of production,” and the producers did increasingly well from the ’70s forward. 
Treasury securities have been selling off and Treasury yields have been rising, with the two-year yield at 2.15% on Friday, the highest since September 2008, and the 10-year yield at 2.84%, the highest since April 2014. Rising yields mean that bond prices are falling, and this selloff has been an uncomfortable experience for holders of Treasury securities.

Research from Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff shows that when a country’s government debt-to-GDP ratio stays over 90% for more than five years, its economy loses around one-third of its growth rate. Lacy also points out that “the longer the debt overhang persists, the relationship between economic growth and debt becomes nonlinear.” This is happening to the US today with the economy growing at only half its long-term growth rate.
Rogers gained fame as the co-founder, with George Soros, of the Quantum Fund. He has been a frequent interviewee or panelist for financial publications and news programs. Rogers shorted stocks of Wall Street investment banks ahead of the 2008 crash, Money says. Back then, high debt loads were a catalyst for the crash. Today, Rogers points out that debt loads are vastly bigger, notably in the U.S., China and the Federal Reserve. Regarding the magnitude of the upcoming crash that he anticipates, Money quotes Rogers, age 74, as warning, "It's going to be the biggest in my lifetime."
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT - Free Report) develops, licenses, and supports software, services, devices, and solutions worldwide. The company has a Zacks Rank #1. In the last 60 days, 15 earnings estimates moved north, while none moved south for the current year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings increased 7.3% in the same period. The company’s expected earnings growth rate for the current quarter and year is 14.3% and 9.5%, respectively.

Good read. I have read several of Mr. Kratter's works. His rules for trading keeps you focused and I have learned some good lessons from each of them. While I am not much of a 'short seller', I have made some decent money recently trading put options. If we are headed for a bear market this is a good book to help you make some money while others are just gritting their teeth!
The set of sanctions that the U.S. began placing on Iran back in 2010 can be best thought of as a monetary blockade. It relied on deputizing U.S. banks to act as snitches. Any U.S. bank that was caught providing correspondent accounts to a foreign bank that itself helped Iran engage in sanctioned activities would be fined. To avoid being penalized, U.S. banks threatened their foreign bank customers to stop enabling Iranian payments or lose their accounts. And of course the foreign banks (mostly) complied. Read More
I think you need to look at how the population is growing. Only 1 group is growing and if you look at the high school and college graduation rates of that group it spells real trouble for our future prosperity as a society. Hopefully at some point they assimilated into our culture, but if they continue with the culture they came from that doesn’t emphasize education then it will only increase our welfare state. These people aren’t going to buy a lot of homes if they can’t graduate from High School and in the end it will mean spend more money on prisons and there will be even less for housing. I’m also curious if they fiasco of the last 20 years has anything to do with why Japan’s birth rate has gotten so low. If you really feel that each generation is going to have to lower their standard of living and your kids would be worse off than you and your parents wouldn’t that impact your decision to have kids at all?
Blind faith in the U.S. dollar is perhaps one of the most crippling disabilities economists have in gauging our economic future. Historically speaking, fiat currencies are essentially animals with very short lives, and world reserve currencies are even more prone to an early death. But, for some reason, the notion that the dollar is vulnerable at all to the same fate is deemed ridiculous by the mainstream.
The gains have been fairly broad based. Currently, according to data from StockCharts, 76.2% of S&P 500 components are trading above their 50-day moving averages, a closely watched technical level that is typically seen as a proxy for positive short-term momentum. In late August, only 41.5% of components were above this level. Currently, 73.8% of components are above their 200-day moving average, up from about 62% in early September.

Beginning in 2010, central banks around the world turned from being net sellers of gold to net buyers of gold. Last year official sector activity rose 36 percent to 366 tonnes – a substantial increase from 2016. The top 10 central banks with the largest gold reserves have remained mostly unchanged for the last few years. The United States holds the number one spot with over 8,000 tonnes of gold in its vaults – nearly as much as the next three countries combined.
A second migrant caravan has been attempting to breach Mexico’s border with Guatemala, and the media is reporting that some migrants in that second caravan are armed with “guns” and “bombs”.  This is a very serious claim, and it needs to either be confirmed or retracted, because it is not helpful to have unconfirmed reports spreading like wildfire on social media.  There have been endless discussions about these migrant caravans on all the major news networks in recent weeks, and they are getting so much attention that they are almost overshadowing the midterm elections which are going to happen next week.  And if this latest report is true, concern about these caravans is certain to reach a fever pitch…Read More
It is human nature to allow emotions such as fear, greed and egotism get in the way. Overconfidence is one of the biggest killers of portfolios. Barber and Odean in a 2000 paper show that “after accounting for trading costs, individual investors underperform relevant benchmarks. Those who trade the most realize, by far, the worst performance. This is what the models of overconfident investors predict” (http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu...)
Goldberg said that investors who continue to hold longer-term bonds should expect fluctuations and, if they look closely at statement this year, losses in the bond holdings. But it's not a reason to sell. And most retail investors aren't in bonds for the total return (i.e., performance) anyway. But they do need to understand that the market mechanics are much stronger for stocks than bonds now.

In the following Nasdaq chart, as seen through the Powershares QQQ Trust QQQ, +2.32%  you can recognize that market is much earlier in the process of a correction, but has begun nonetheless. The data here only goes as far back as 1997, so it is possible that the Nasdaq does retest its highs before continuing down. That's not a risk I am generally taking. In looking at the risk range, we see that the Nasdaq could be in line for another 40% to 50% correction. Again, I don't think that is the likeliest outcome, but it is possible. I do expect a significant correction and if I had to pick a number, I'd say about 30% off of its top.
Since January, gold futures speculators have been trending from extremely bullish to scared short. And in the week ending last Tuesday (the most recent data available) they appeared to capitulate, adding a massive number of short positions while marginally cutting their longs. They’re now about as close to neutral as they’ve ever been. Based on the history of the past decade this is hugely bullish, since speculators tend to be wrong when they’re fully convinced they’re right. Read More

A funny thing happened in the middle of one of Mike Maloney's deep-research sessions recently. As you know, he just released a brand new presentation, but while analyzing the stock market he wasn't satisfied with the way most valuation measures were calculated. With all due respect to Warren Buffet, even his indicator fell short in Mike’s view. It was time for something new, something more insightful, something more accurate.
*** “Treasury officials said their decision to halt the issuance of the 30-year bonds was intended to save the government money,” writes Gretchen Mortgensen in the NY Times. “Traders scoffed at that explanation, viewing the move as an almost desperate attempt to push down long- term interest rates, and prod both corporate and individual borrowers to spend again.”
“What a difference a day makes”! Well we didn’t get the sun and the flowers like in Dinah Washington’s song but more like storm and showers. For the ones who don’t remember Dinah, Amy Winehouse made a more recent version of the song. Last week I warned investors again, in the strongest tone possible, of the risks in markets. So what triggered it? Was it the Fed’s interest rise? Or was it the trade war with China? Or maybe it was Kavanaugh?

Emotions are the biggest challenge when a bear market hits. After spending years scrimping and saving to find money to invest and watching it grow slowly but steadily, it's painful to see stock market declines wipe out a significant chunk of your portfolio. Even for seasoned investors, the kneejerk reaction is often to want to put those losses to an end quickly and sell.
In just the past few years, global asset values have risen to the biggest bubbles in history. Unfortunately, this doesn’t seem to be a concern to the market because most people believe they are getting richer. However, rapidly rising digital riches can easily turn into digital losses, just as quickly. But, this will likely remain a secret until the major fireworks begin in the markets by the this fall or within the next 1-2 years.
Jonathan H. Adler, Professor at Case Western University School of Law, noted, regarding George W. Bush’s secret policy for the NSA to access everyone’s phone-records, that “The metadata collection program is constitutional (at least according to Judge Kavanaugh),” and he presented Judge Kavanaugh’s entire published opinion on that. Kavanaugh’s opinion stated that the 4th Amendment to the US Constitution could be shoved aside because he thinks that the ‘national security’ of the United States is more important than the Constitution. Kavanaugh wrote: Read More
There is increasing awareness that another financial crisis is in the offing, and, of course, everyone has an opinion as to what will trigger it and what form it will take. But there is broad agreement that since the Lehman crisis ten years ago, instead of resolving the problems that led to that crisis, governments and their monetary authorities have allowed the underlying position to deteriorate. Read More
A recent The New York Times article described how Vanguard, the $4.2 trillion mutual fund, is the fastest growing fund due to the attractiveness of passive investment vehicles and the average 0.12% fee the fund charges. The low fee is something I applaud as I strongly believe fees in the financial world should be minimal or performance related where nothing is paid if the manager doesn’t deliver.
Per the latest COT report (note: this references the August 21st COT Report), the hedge fund (Managed Money) net short position in Comex paper gold was 90,000 contracts – by far a record short position for the hedge fund trader category. Conversely, the bank net long position (Swap Dealers) in Comex paper gold was close to an all-time high. It’s not quite as high it was in December 2015.
"We are in a bond market bubble" that's beginning to unwind, he said on Squawk on the Street, as new Fed Chairman Jerome Powell appeared on Capitol Hill for the second time this week. "Prices are too high" on bonds, Greenspan added. Bond prices move inversely to bond yields, which spiked higher in the new year, recently hitting four-year highs of just under 3%.
This week’s collapse of the Turkish lira has dominated the headlines, and it is widely reported that this and other emerging market currencies are in trouble because of the withdrawal of dollar liquidity. There are huge quantities of footloose dollars betting against these weak currencies, as well as commodities and gold, on the basis the long-expected squeeze on dollar liquidity is finally upon us. 
With a discussion of the bond bear market comes many moving parts. David seeks to explain the concepts while utilizing the analogy of cutting an apple. An apple can be cut in many different ways, and each method uncovers a new way of looking at the apple and its pieces – in this case, interest rates. There are two main interest components that are discussed in this episode of Money For the Rest of Us: inflation expectations and real rates (i.e. your return after inflation.)
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