The fundamental principal of information theory is that all information is surprise; only surprise qualifies as information. Sound familiar? George recognized the tie between entrepreneurial surprise and information theory: “Claude Shannon defined information as surprise, and Albert Hirshman defined entrepreneurship as surprise. Here we have a crucial tie between the economy and information theory. For the first time, it became possible to create an economics that could capture the surprising creativity of entrepreneurs.
The world of finance and investment, as always, faces many uncertainties. The US economy is booming, say some, and others warn that money supply growth has slowed, raising fears of impending deflation. We fret about the banks, with a well-known systemically-important European name in difficulties. We worry about the disintegration of the Eurozone, with record imbalances and a significant member, Italy, digging in its heels. China’s stock market, we are told, is now officially in bear market territory. Will others follow? But there is one thing that’s so far been widely ignored and that’s inflation. Read More
Jonathan H. Adler, Professor at Case Western University School of Law, noted, regarding George W. Bush’s secret policy for the NSA to access everyone’s phone-records, that “The metadata collection program is constitutional (at least according to Judge Kavanaugh),” and he presented Judge Kavanaugh’s entire published opinion on that. Kavanaugh’s opinion stated that the 4th Amendment to the US Constitution could be shoved aside because he thinks that the ‘national security’ of the United States is more important than the Constitution. Kavanaugh wrote: Read More
This system, defined as the Liberal International Order, is the framework of rules, alliances, and institutions that is credited with the relative peace and prosperity the world has enjoyed since 1945. So, if the order has lost support, will the world plunge into beggar-thy-neighbor protectionism? Worse, without the threat of military intervention by the US and its allies, will regional powers start to challenge one another?
In closing, EvG says, “. . . At some point, all hell will break loose. There is no question about it. It could be something very serious coming this autumn. The whole political system is fighting against Trump, and that is going to be tough, very tough. . . . The markets are giving me the signal that things are going to turn in the autumn, and you can easily find a number of catalysts for this to happen.” Read More
Wireless power technology recently became popular with its application in charging wireless-capable devices, (such as a smartphone) via a Powermat interface. There is one company currently building out a true wireless power supply without the need for an intermediary “pad,” which could develop into an investment opportunity of a lifetime if it or another company successfully launches an IPO, not to mention the upstream manufacturing interface components.  Read More
Trade wars are usually bad for all parties in the end but between the beginning and the end there can be some surprising developments. Human actions and delusions on the part of the public can produce strange results at times. All of our systems are based on trust. When that trust is lost, everything will come crashing down. Until then, things will go on. Read More
Stocks with relatively low debt and lower P/E ratios are Corning Inc. (NYSE: GLW), Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (NASDAQ: BBBY), American Express (NYSE: AXP), Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS), Whirlpool Corp. (NYSE: WHR), PVH Corp. (NYSE: PVH), and CVS Corp. (NYSE: CVS). However, the average P/E ratio of this list is still at 13 which implies just a 7% long term return. For those who want more, the best thing to do is to look for special situations and emerging markets.
The public pension fund system is approaching apocalypse.  Earlier this week teachers who are part of the Colorado public pension system (PERA) staged a walk-out protest over proposed changes to the plan, including raising the percentage contribution to the fund by current payees and raising the retirement age.   PERA backed off but ignoring the obvious problem will not make it go away.
Jump up ^ Howe, Irving (1984). A Margin of Hope. Harvest Books. ISBN 978-0156572453. excerpted in "Arguing the World". (official website) PBS. Harold Rosenberg had an enviable part-time job at the Advertising Council, where he created Smokey the [sic] Bear. (The sheer deliciousness of it: this cuddly artifact of commercial folklore as the creature of our unyielding modernist!) The official Smokey Bear website the by Ad Council does not mention Rosenberg. No mention is made of Smokey Bear at Rosenberg's obituary at Russell, John (July 13, 1978). "Harold Rosenberg Is Dead at 72 Art Critic for The New Yorker". The New York Times.
4. I don’t know whether G. Shilling is right or not on deflation. I think he is right on the economic slowdown, but not necessarily on the inflation piece (can have slowdown AND inflation). But, I’ll give it the following probabilities: 20% chance of another decade or so of Japan-like deflation; 80% chance of sustained, lasting inflation for decades (sustained bouts of stagflation).
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ANSWER: The entire world has NEVER been on the gold standard simultaneously. Asia was on a silver standard while the West was on a gold standard. Above is the first coin struck in Hong Kong in 1866 which was the Hong Kong Dollar. The West struck Trade Dollars during the 19th century to pay for goods from Asia and they were silver – never gold. Here is an example of both the British and American trade dollars used in payments particularly with China. The Spanish 8 reals Americans called Pillar Dollars and slicing this up into pieces like a pie gave rise to the term for a Piece of Eight – 2 bits, 4 bits, 8 bits a dollar.  Read More

That concludes the fifth and final installment in this series. I hope you have enjoyed reading my insights into these “big ideas” as much as I have enjoyed writing them. Although it’s over, I do have something special to send you in the coming days. It’s a personal video message that I just finished recording. Think of it as a stepping stone to taking these “big ideas” to the next level. I’ll tell you more about it in my series recap email, tomorrow.
The world has been plagued with periodic bouts of the economic rollercoaster of booms and busts, inflations and recessions, especially during the last one hundred years. The main culprits responsible for these destabilizing and disruptive episodes have been governments and their central banks. They have monopolized the control of their respective nation’s monetary and banking systems, and mismanaged them. There is really nowhere else to point other than in their direction.
“Historically, the average bear market has lasted only 71 days,” he says. “As a result, most investors miss a major part of a market rebound when they shift into defensive sectors. They are slow to shift out of these defensive sectors and typically will lag overall market returns. We seek to consolidate into selected high-quality growth companies during market corrections.”
The most valuable bubble empirically for the purpose of our elucidation has to be the Mississippi bubble, whose central figure was John Law. Law, a Scotsman whose father’s profession was as a goldsmith and banker in Edinburgh, set up an inflation scheme in 1716 to rescue France’s finances. He proposed to the Regent for the infant Louis XIV a scheme that would be based on a new paper currency. Read More

Gambling is according to Wikipedia the wagering of money (or something of value) on an event with an uncertain outcome. Three elements are required for gambling, consideration, chance, and prize. Thus, you make a bet and if you are lucky you win a prize but you can also lose it all. Gambling has been around for thousands of years and maybe longer. The first 6-sided dice dates back 3000 years. Eventually gambling became more organised as casinos were established. The first well known casino was set up in Venice in the early 1600s. Read More

Ten-year Treasury yields jumped 13 bps this week to 2.48%, the high going back to March. German bund yields rose 12 bps to 0.42%. U.S. equities have been reveling in tax reform exuberance. Bonds not so much. With unemployment at an almost 17-year low 4.1%, bond investors have so far retained incredible faith in global central bankers and the disinflation thesis.
Kirk Spano, the winner of the first MarketWatch competition to find the world’s next great investing columnist, is a registered investment advisor and founder of Bluemound Asset Management, LLC  which seeks to provide investors with greater safety, growth, income and freedom. Kirk’s biography and various business endeavors can be found at KirkSpano.com. Follow Kirk on Twitter @KirkSpano or at the Bluemound Facebook page for his columns, company analysis, letters, trade notes and what he is reading.
(= endure, tolerate) → ertragen; (with neg also) → ausstehen, leiden; pain → aushalten; criticism, joking → vertragen; smell, noise etc → aushalten, vertragen; she can’t bear flying → sie kann einfach nicht fliegen; she can’t bear doing nothing → sie kann einfach nicht untätig sein; she can’t bear being laughed at → sie kann es nicht vertragen, wenn man über sie lacht; could you bear to stay a little longer? → können Sie es noch ein bisschen länger hier aushalten?
*** Since the attacks, we at the Daily Reckoning – as stunned as the next group of conspirators – have been asking a question similar to one I’m sure has crossed your mind at least once: “Why?” The Sovereign Society’s John Pugsley offers one point of view: “It is not hatred for freedom or materialism that caused terrorists to sacrifice their lives.” Pugsley quotes Joseph Sobran: “You delude and flatter yourself if you think someone hates you for your virtues.”
Just like a secular bull market, a secular bear market is one that lasts between five and 25 years. And while the average length of a secular bear market is about 17 years, there may be smaller bull or bear markets within it. Still, the average bear market is much shorter -- usually under a year -- and so definitions of what constitutes a secular bear market vary. 

It seems a lot of the otherwise sellers hold off selling and banks being very slow releasing REOs. They seem to think market will improve in San Diego in the next few months or later. Many of the ones on the market are so over priced they don’t go anywhere and price reductions are slow to come. There is definitely a stalemate between sellers and buyers in San Diego market.
"We are in a bond market bubble" that's beginning to unwind, he said on Squawk on the Street, as new Fed Chairman Jerome Powell appeared on Capitol Hill for the second time this week. "Prices are too high" on bonds, Greenspan added. Bond prices move inversely to bond yields, which spiked higher in the new year, recently hitting four-year highs of just under 3%.

vt (pret bore; pp borne) tolerar, aguantar, soportar; (to give birth to) dar a luz; child-bearing age edad fértil; to — down pujar; Bear down as if you were having a bowel movement.. Puje como si estuviera defecando (haciendo popó); to — weight soportar peso; You shouldn’t bear weight with your left leg for two weeks..No debe soportar peso con su pierna izquierda durante dos semanas.
Hoover, on the other hand, apparently became convinced that bear raids on the stock market were intended to damage his presidency. In April 1932, a French stock market rag was raided by Paris police, its female editor accused of being in the pay of Russian and German interests who were trying to induce a panic on the New York market. In desperation, Hoover ordered the Senate to open an investigation into the affairs of Wall Street.
[After the crash] stocks continued to fall, until by the summer of 1932, the Dow Jones reached a floor of 41.88, nearly 90% off its 1929 peak. By this date, the country’s national income had shrunk by 60% and one third of the non-agricultural workforce was unemployed. President Herbert Hoover, who came to office in early 1929 promising that “the end of poverty was in sight,” faced an uphill task in the forthcoming election. America needed a scapegoat.
If the market keeps marching higher, despite all of these warnings signs that valuations are stretched and market sentiment is too bullish, what’s in it for the short seller? In the short term, it’s painful to have hedges on, as they detract from performance. We very much live in a “show me now” world where very few think and plan for the long term.
The Kavanaugh hearing underscored another eerie condition in contemporaryUSA life that offers clues about the combined social, economic, and political collapse that I call the long emergency: the destruction of all remaining categorical boundaries for understanding behavior: truth and untruth, innocent and guilty, childhood and adulthood, public and private. The absence of real monsters to slay, has become the party devoted to sowing chaos, mainly by inventing new, imaginary monsters using the machinery of politics, the way the Catholic Church manufactured monsters of heresy during the Spanish Inquisition in its attempt to regulate “belief.” Read More
He is, in addition, the author of a pair of political biographies: John Adams: Party of One, a life of the second president of the United States (Farrar, Straus, 2005) and Mr. Speaker! The Life and Times of Thomas B. Reed, the Man Who Broke the Filibuster (Simon & Schuster, 2011). His new biography of Walter Bagehot, the Victorian man of letters and financial journalist, will be published in 2018.
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast wherever you listen.Turkey is the Epicenter of Emerging Market ConcernsRight now, the epicenter of the concerns about the emerging markets is coming from Turkey. What is the problem with the Turkish lira? Turkish President Erdogan is veering off into some very dangerous territory with his stance with the Central Ban ...…
The shares slumped -6.88% after dropping as much as -10% at the lows after the company’s CEO, in an interview with CNBC yesterday, failed to reassure market fears about a weakening financial position. The CEO suggested that the company will now urgently sell assets to address leverage and its precarious liquidity situation whereby it will have to rely on revolvers - and the generosity of its banks - now that it is locked out of the commercial paper market. Read More

Since communications can be business ideas, information theory is applicable to anything transmitted over time and space—including entrepreneurial creations. In the economy, the entrepreneur has to distinguish amidst the noise, a signal that a particular good or service is needed. But if some force—a government or central bank—distorts the signal by adding “noise to the line,” the entrepreneur could have difficulty interpreting the signal.
"A downtick in bonds is not same as a downtick in equities," said Mike Loewengart, vice president of investment strategy at E-Trade Financial. He said even in previous rate increase environments, when bond income is received and reinvested, that can keep returns in positive territory and help investors get through fixed-income volatility. "Maybe it is the end of a 30-year bull run in bonds, but I still think if rates rise gradually, most diversified fixed income portfolios should fair OK."
But as Sam Stewart of Seven Canyons Advisors points out, it’s never the clock that brings an end to an economic cycle. “It’s always excesses,” he says. Stewart sees “a hint” of excess here and there. But nothing like what we saw leading up to the housing-related market crisis 10 years ago. The kind of excesses that typically bring down the economy and the market may still be years away, he says.

ANSWER: You are correct, that concerns over U.S.-Russian relations, coming talks on the Korean Peninsula, action in Syria over a suspected chemical weapons attacks and uneasiness over trade conflicts would normally be the battle cry to buy gold.  Traditionally, this would form a cocktail of geopolitical uncertainty that would lead to screams buy gold! The uncertainty has not led to support for gold. They are proving to be a narrative that no longer seems to be factors for the bulls. Read More
The world economy has been living on borrowed time since the 2006-9 crisis. The financial system should have collapsed at that time. But the massive life support that central banks orchestrated managed to keep the dying patient alive for another decade. Lowering interest rates to zero or negative and printing enough money to double global debt seem to have solved the problem. But rather than saving the world from an economic collapse, the growth of debt and asset bubbles has created a system with exponentially higher risk. Read More

RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/Surrendered Rest of Post-Election Gains in One DayAs I thought, it didn't take long for the markets to surrender all of the post-election gains. The Dow Jones today was down 602 points, so we've already lost it. It took one day. On my podcast on Friday I said ...…


RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/Merchandise Trade Deficit Largest Trade Deficit on RecordToday's rally had to overlook the bad news that came out today. I was watching CNBC this morning just before the news was announced and the anchor said, "We've got a lot of news coming out at 8:30 and I ...…

A secular bear market lasts anywhere between five and 25 years. The average length is around 17 years. During that time, typical bull and bear market cycles can occur. But asset prices will return to the original level. There is often a lot of debate as to whether we are in a secular bull or bear market. For example, some investors believe we are currently in a bear market that began in 2000.
The earliest speculative markets witnessed the tussle of bulls and bears. In the second century before Christ, the playwright Plautus identified two groups in the Roman Forum engaged in trading shares. The first group he called “mere puffers” (the security analysts of the day), and the second group Plautus described as “impudent, talkative, malevolent fellows, who boldly, without reason, utter calumnies about one another.” In England, the origin of the term “bear” to describe speculating for a fall, deriving from a trader who sold the bear’s skin before he had caught the bear, first appeared in the early 18th century several years before the appearance of the corresponding “bull.”
“The European Union is a perfect illustration of why the Liberal International Order is over. The EU wholly mismanaged the financial crisis, massively amplifying the effects on member states. But it will turn out to have committed suicide because its leaders got the immigration issue wrong. The Europeans forgot that borders are really the first defining characteristic of a state. As they became borderless, they made themselves open to a catastrophe, which was the uncontrolled influx of more than a million people. The most basic roles that we expect a state to perform, from economic management to the defense of borders, were flunked completely by the EU over the past 10 years.”
The issuer of a municipal bond receives a cash purchase price at the time of issuance in exchange for a promise to repay the purchasing investors, or their transferees, (the bond holder) over time. Repayment periods can be as short as a few months (although this is very rare) to 20, 30, or 40 years, or even longer. The issuer typically uses proceeds from a bond sale to pay for capital projects or for other purposes it cannot or does not desire to pay for immediately with funds on hand. Tax regulations governing municipal bonds generally require all money raised by a bond sale to be spent on capital projects within three to five years of issuance.[13] Certain exceptions permit the issuance of bonds to fund other items, including ongoing operations and maintenance expenses in certain cases, the purchase of single-family and multi-family mortgages, and the funding of student loans, among many other things.
In May, President Trump signed the rewrite of the 2010 Dodd-Frank law passed earlier by Congress with rare bipartisan support. The bill is the biggest rollback of bank rules since the financial crisis. According to the new law, lenders with less than $10 billion in assets will be exempted from the Volcker rule that bans proprietary trading. Read More

Since communications can be business ideas, information theory is applicable to anything transmitted over time and space—including entrepreneurial creations. In the economy, the entrepreneur has to distinguish amidst the noise, a signal that a particular good or service is needed. But if some force—a government or central bank—distorts the signal by adding “noise to the line,” the entrepreneur could have difficulty interpreting the signal.
I’m chronically, sometimes profitably, but certainly very nearly continuously, well-disposed to the legacy monetary asset. I think that so many arrows point to it in the present day. I think it will become the beneficiary of – I’m talking about gold now – gold will become the beneficiary of so many trends. From the tinkering and the unprecedented experimentation of our central bankers’ fiscal profligacy – I’m starting to sound moralistic –
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