While many analysts focus on the company’s profits or net income, I like to pay attention to its free cash flow.   Free cash flow is nothing more than subtracting capital expenditures from the company’s cash from operations.  Because the gold mining industry is very capital intensive, the company’s free cash flow is a better indicator of financial health rather than the net income. Read More
It’s important to remember that a bull market is characterized by a general sense of optimism and positive growth which tends to catalyze greed. A bear market is associated with a general sense of decline which tends to instill fear in the hearts of stockholders. As Rule #1 investors, we act opposite of the investing public – when it comes to bull vs bear markets – and capitalize on their emotions by finding quality stocks at low prices during bear markets and selling during bull markets when they’ve regained their value.

It’s important to keep in mind that the mining stocks have been sold to levels well-below their intrinsic value – in the case of larger-cap producing miners. Or their “optionality” value – in the case of junior mining companies with projects that have a good chance eventually of converting their deposits into mines. “Optionality” value is based on the idea that junior exploration companies with projects that have strong mineralization or a compliant resource have an implied value based on the varying degrees of probability that their projects will eventually be developed into a producing mine. Read More


“These are the times that try men’s souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands it now deserves the love and thanks of man and woman. Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph.”—Thomas Paine, December 1776
Remember when we were assured that HRC was not a target of interest to the Russians and therefore we could be confident that they never even attempted to hack her server, which was conveniently still in it’s woefully under-protected state while this spy ring was targeting her specifically? The people who told us not to worry our pretty little heads are the same ones who knew all about this spy ring.
Whether the market is in bear territory or not matters because declines tend to feed on themselves. It also suggests that investors have lost faith that the economy can keep producing the big gains it has turned in lately. If anyone still believes that President Donald Trump’s tax cuts will lead to a prolonged boost to corporate profits, it is hard to see evidence of that in the market. On top of that, when the psychology of investors is glum, bad news tends to send stocks downstream much faster than at times when stocks are trading at bull-market premiums.
David and Maribel Maldonado seem the very definition of making it in America. David arrived in the U.S. from Mexico as a small child. His father supported the family by working long hours as a mechanic while his mother raised their 10 children. By the time David had a family of his own, his career as a salesman was flourishing. His wife Maribel, whose family is also from Mexico, worked as a hairstylist while caring for the couple’s two children. David’s annual salary reached about $113,000 by the time the children were in their teens. It was more than enough to live in a pretty suburban house outside Dallas, take family vacations, go to restaurants and splurge at the nearby mall. And to afford health insurance.
I’ll admit I was somewhat skeptical when you claimed it was the “best conference,” but after last year, I couldn’t praise the SIC enough to my colleagues. (I think they actually got tired of me talking about it.) As a principle, I try NOT to attend the same events but rather experience new and different forums. However, I couldn’t resist returning for the SIC and have once again talked the ears off my fellow traders on the desk.
“We’re not overly worried about this being the early legs of a large-scale market correction in conjunction with a recession,” Joe Mallen, chief investment officer at Helios Quantitative Research, said Wednesday. “I don’t see anything so dire from an economic data perspective that will create a 20% plus drawdown. I think this is very technical in nature.”

But… with so many stocks that were overvalued at the start of the year… it’s understandable that many were selling to take some profit. But the last couple weeks have been an over reaction (as with Amazon, FB, etc…along with the uncertainty with China…fyi: China is well aware that they’ve been trading on our market and paying way too little of their fair share of tariffs for way too long. So… I’m certain there will be some sort of compromise to continue trade). But… all this has caused the amateur investor to panic lately and resulted in a greater sell off than what many companies deserve. A logical investor/trader will research and understand the fundamentals of the companies he/she is invested in and know their worth (yes… some companies are still overvalued… ) but the pajama trader should never sell in a panic. If they do, then they should sell and stay out of the Market altogether. Because this has been just a vicious Market Correction as of late… but it’s not a Bear Market. The unemployment rate is too low and the economy is gaining strength overall…and the stock market is far from euphoric. If you’re young you always have time on your side for recovering on any losses. If you’re over 60 consider buying some well valued companies who pay good dividends (but, be careful, don’t fall for those ridiculously high dividend stocks like 7% and higher… they’re often paying a high dividend to entice people to invest in what is probably a failing company.) A 3% dividend can really be a nice way to earn income while waiting for a company to rebound in the stock market.


There is a quiet revolution taking place in the monetary vacuum that’s developing on the back of the erosion of the dollar’s hegemony. It is perhaps too early to call what’s happening to the dollar the beginning of its demise as the world’s reserve currency, but there is certainly a move away from it in Asia. And every time the Americans deploy their control over global trade settlement as a weapon against the regimes they dislike, nations who are neutral observers take note and consider how to protect themselves, “just in case.”Read More
None of this means stocks were at a bottom Wednesday. At this point, we may need the classic “big puke moment” of capitulation to wipe out the remaining weak hands, restore enough fear and respect for the market and clear the air. No one knows when that will happen. But watch for a big whoosh down at an open, followed by a quick and sharp reversal, and some gains.

Today, the S&P 500 fell by more than 3%, the Dow lost more than 2%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 4.4%, its biggest one-day drop since 2011 (paywall). Benchmark US stock indexes are on track for their worst month in years, in some cases all the way back to the 2008 financial crisis. The Nasdaq and small-cap Russell 2000 are both now in “correction” territory—that is, down more than 10% from recent highs.
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebookhttps://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/Making the Rich PayJulia Salazar, another Democratic Socialist defeated Martin Dilan in the NY Senate primary. The only reference to taxes on her website was to "make the rich pay their fair share". That's it. Nothing about what specifically she wants to raise, ...…
The pattern of boom and bust has continued in the post- war years. Inevitably the bears have been blamed during every major downturn…Japanese authorities complain[ed] that mysterious foreign interests were responsible for the decline in their stock market, following the great boom of the bubble economy. (In 1998, the Japanese imposed restrictions on short-selling in an attempt to shore up their market).
Dr. Schiller has been an invaluable contributor to financial market dialogue for many years. He will eventually be right as investment psychology has a habit of going off the deep end from time to time. I offer the above only to try to analyze why we are where we are now. What will eventually put pressure on equity prices are competitive returns from debt instruments (higher interest rates) and that is not likely to happen soon since the power structure appears to favor the current status quo.
Hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones, in an interview with Goldman Sachs, predicted a rise in inflation and a surge in the 10-year Treasury yield. Noted bond investor Bill Gross recently said the bear market in bond prices has begun. Billionaire investor Warren Buffett told CNBC on Monday he believes long-term investors should buy stocks over bonds.
The type of project or projects that are funded by a bond affects the taxability of income received on the bonds. Interest earnings on bonds that fund projects that are constructed for the public good are generally exempt from federal income taxes, while interest earnings on bonds issued to fund projects partly or wholly benefiting only private parties, sometimes referred to as private activity bonds or PABs, may be subject to federal income tax. However, qualified private activity bonds, whether issued by a governmental unit or private entity, are exempt from federal taxes because the bonds are financing services or facilities that, while meeting the private activity tests, are needed by a government. See a list of those projects in Section 141 of the IRS Code.
“The economic fundamentals remain favorable,” said Bruce Bittles, Robert W. Baird’s chief investment strategist, after Wednesday’s sell-off. Bittles was also cautious on stocks ahead of the current rout. “Given the strength in the labor markets and confidence levels among small businesses, the odds of a business turndown are unlikely. We remain bullish on the U.S. economy.”

@PC — I love that people keep putting “my friend” in ironic quotes… 😉 What is more incredible/unbelievable — that someone who has written an investment blog for eight years suddenly buys a short ETF without knowing how it works and then compounds his embarrassment by writing a blog about it and THEN republishes it a few years later to relive his embarrassment, or a person who writes an investment blog for 8 years actually *having* a friend? 🙂

It is isn’t egotism and lack of self-motivation that causes us to trade more. Panic and greed also play a part. It is a natural human emotion to want to invest more when markets are going well, or sell when markets are down or at least to stop contributing. Studies that shown that if you tell somebody that they have a 95% chance of making money, they are more likely to invest than if you tell them they have a 5% chance of losing money.


McAfee, who hasn't been affiliated with his namesake company since 1994 and lost most of a fortune once worth $100 million in the years since the crisis, was at one point pitching a new ICO every day. And since before last year's boom, McAfee has been a regular on the cryptocurrency conference circuit and is part of what Bloomberg calls "a vast network of social media influences" who have helped ICOs raise billions. Read More
We have very few people left worldwide who actually lived through the Great Depression.  While I have been told many stories by my grandparents of what it was like to live through the 1930’s and 1940’s, I clearly do not have first-hand experience.  Yet, I would assume that I still have a better understanding of that time period than most of the people reading my words today. Read More
In the days ahead, markets are awaiting potential announcements on the Trump administration's plan to curb Chinese investments in U.S. technology, although messaging on those measures from the White House has proven conflicting. The U.S. is also set to impose an additional 25 percent tariff on $34 billion in Chinese imports on July 6, with duties on a further $16 billion in Chinese goods in the works.
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebookhttps://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/Fed Responsible for Most Recent Move UpI think what's really responsible for this most recent move up is the Fed comments. Now maybe Trump can take credit for those, maybe President Trump was able to get Jerome Powell's mind right after all, when it comes to ra ...…
I’ll admit I was somewhat skeptical when you claimed it was the “best conference,” but after last year, I couldn’t praise the SIC enough to my colleagues. (I think they actually got tired of me talking about it.) As a principle, I try NOT to attend the same events but rather experience new and different forums. However, I couldn’t resist returning for the SIC and have once again talked the ears off my fellow traders on the desk.
2019 is shaping up to be the year in which all the policies that worked in the past will no longer work. As we all know, the Global Financial Meltdown / recession of 2008-09 was halted by the coordinated policies of the major central banks, which lowered interest rates to near-zero, bought trillions of dollars of bonds and iffy assets such as mortgage-backed securities, and issued unlimited lines of credit to insolvent banks, i.e. unlimited liquidity.
But… with so many stocks that were overvalued at the start of the year… it’s understandable that many were selling to take some profit. But the last couple weeks have been an over reaction (as with Amazon, FB, etc…along with the uncertainty with China…fyi: China is well aware that they’ve been trading on our market and paying way too little of their fair share of tariffs for way too long. So… I’m certain there will be some sort of compromise to continue trade). But… all this has caused the amateur investor to panic lately and resulted in a greater sell off than what many companies deserve. A logical investor/trader will research and understand the fundamentals of the companies he/she is invested in and know their worth (yes… some companies are still overvalued… ) but the pajama trader should never sell in a panic. If they do, then they should sell and stay out of the Market altogether. Because this has been just a vicious Market Correction as of late… but it’s not a Bear Market. The unemployment rate is too low and the economy is gaining strength overall…and the stock market is far from euphoric. If you’re young you always have time on your side for recovering on any losses. If you’re over 60 consider buying some well valued companies who pay good dividends (but, be careful, don’t fall for those ridiculously high dividend stocks like 7% and higher… they’re often paying a high dividend to entice people to invest in what is probably a failing company.) A 3% dividend can really be a nice way to earn income while waiting for a company to rebound in the stock market.
This article will focus on the top four precious metals, gold, silver, platinum, and palladium.  Even though Rhodium and other metals are considered precious, the ones listed above take the lion’s share of the investment market.  Furthermore, while platinum and palladium are purchased as investments, they have a much larger industrial component than gold or silver. Read More
A common refrain was a preference for non-US assets, particularly in equities given the run-up in American stocks and the earlier stage of economic recovery in Europe. The Fed could exit from its days of stimulus too fast, choking off the economic recovery and crimping profit growth. A few worried about the possibility for an inverted US yield curve when short-term rates rise above long-term levels, which sometimes are seen as a precursor to a recession.
Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc.2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.

For generations, advocates of private gun ownership have been fighting exhaustively through political channels to protect their right to keep and bear arms. Gun owners even have one of the strongest lobby groups in Washington, the highly disappointing NRA. Yet over the years, gun rights continue to diminish in America, despite the constant political campaigns by the NRA and politicians that claim to support gun rights. Read More


Joining the likes of Bill Gross and Jeffrey Gundlach, and echoing his ominous DV01-crash warning to the NY Fed from October 2016, Bridgewater's billionaire founder and CEO Ray Dalio told Bloomberg  TV that the bond market has "slipped into a bear phase" and warned that a rise in yields could spark the biggest crisis for fixed-income investors in almost 40 years.
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