High unemployment and high inflation will have negative impact on home prices IMO – it is coming. Will the fed fight Stagflation like Paul Volker fed did with high fed fund rates? Will supply and demand market forces wrest the shadow inventory from the bankers in the next 5 years or will the supply chain remained clogged with squatters and inflated balance sheets?
Astute readers remember how we published our Gold Price Forecast For 2018 almost a year ago when the price of gold was testing its support $1200 to $1220 level. We were bearish at that point in time. However, right after our publication the futures market, one of our leading indicators, changed its shape. We updated readers about this event, and early this year the gold futures market confirmed its new trend which was also reflected in the price of gold. Read More
Jonathan H. Adler, Professor at Case Western University School of Law, noted, regarding George W. Bush’s secret policy for the NSA to access everyone’s phone-records, that “The metadata collection program is constitutional (at least according to Judge Kavanaugh),” and he presented Judge Kavanaugh’s entire published opinion on that. Kavanaugh’s opinion stated that the 4th Amendment to the US Constitution could be shoved aside because he thinks that the ‘national security’ of the United States is more important than the Constitution. Kavanaugh wrote: Read More
Paul R. Ruedi, a CFP® financial advisor in Champaign, IL, suggest investors regularly do “lifeboat drills” before a bear market starts. He says investors should “...imagine a bear market has occurred and the stock portion of their portfolio is down 20% or 30%. How will they feel? How are they going to react? Are they going to panic, or remind themselves that “this too shall pass,” and stay the course with their investments? We remind our clients to do these all the time, and when a bear market occurs, they are spared the panic and emotions that consume most investors during bear markets.”
Still, there are a lot of unknowns. Would millions of Americans switching from urban to rural living ignite a baby boom and cure our demographic problems? It’s certainly not out of the question. After all, birthrates are substantially higher in rural areas. Plus, families could dramatically reduce their cost of living by moving out of cities, allowing them to feed more mouths.

Beyond that, self-motivation is an issue even for people who are hard-working. Most of the people reading this have probably gone to the gym, tried to lose weight and/or gain muscle. How many have successes? How many of people reading this have remained constantly motivated day in day out, year in year out? That is tough, but being a rational investor, requires that kind of discllipine.
Surely last week this foundering nation finally reached Peak Social Justice Warrior Bullshit with The New York Times hiring of genocide-for-white-people advocate Sarah Jeong, 30, as an op-ed writer on tech matters. Apparently, one angle of the tech world Sarah Jeong overlooked was the mile-wide Twitter trail of messages she left over the past ten years declaring that white people should be “canceled out,” “made to live underground like groveling goblins,” or this pungent one from the Reinhard Heydrich playbook: “Oh man it’s kind of sick how much joy I get out of being cruel to old white men.” Read More

Today we are getting significant volatility as the world starts to wake up to the reality that global growth will never be the same again. The question many have now is "are the markets going to have another 2008-like crash?" I don't think so, but folks should begin to accept that we are going to have at least a normal bear market. In fact, the bear market has already begun.
POST YOUR REVIEW OF THIS PODCAST ON iTunesVoting Responsibly for FreedomI am "pro" young people because I want them to grow up in a free country. I want them to have every opportunity to be as prosperous as possible. Democracy is actually an enemy of freedom. Young people have a better chance to achieve their goals if the 18-19-20 year old gene ...…
Many BullionStar customers are already be familiar with using Bitcoin when buying and selling gold, silver and platinum bars and coins, as BullionStar has been accepting Bitcoin as a form of payment since May 2014. BullionStar was one of the first bullion dealers worldwide to offer customers the ability to buy and sell physical precious metals using Bitcoin. Now with the addition of Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash and Litecoin, BullionStar is again one of the first bullion dealers in the world to offer customers the ability to transact in these other leading cryptocurrencies for both buy and sell orders.Read More
bear, suffer, endure, abide, tolerate, stand mean to put up with something trying or painful. bear usually implies the power to sustain without flinching or breaking. forced to bear a tragic loss suffer often suggests acceptance or passivity rather than courage or patience in bearing. suffering many insults endure implies continuing firm or resolute through trials and difficulties. endured years of rejection abide suggests acceptance without resistance or protest. cannot abide their rudeness tolerate suggests overcoming or successfully controlling an impulse to resist, avoid, or resent something injurious or distasteful. refused to tolerate such treatment stand emphasizes even more strongly the ability to bear without discomposure or flinching. unable to stand teasing

Gold’s breakout from its giant 5-year base pattern has had to wait for the dollar rally to run its course, which it now appears to have done, and this being the case, gold is now free to break out into a major bull market that looks set to dwarf all prior ones. We have in the past described gold’s base pattern from 2013 as a complex (multi-shouldered) Head-and-Shoulders bottom and while this description is still valid, it is perhaps more simply described as a Bowl or Saucer pattern, that is shown on its latest 10-year chart below. Read More

Michael Wilson, the chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley (MS - Free Report) , added that “over the past two months, the U.S. equity market has moved decidedly more defensive and value is showing more persistent performance versus growth.” This move toward defensive sectors and value strategies indicated that the market is concerned about growth fading later this year and next.

In just the past few years, global asset values have risen to the biggest bubbles in history. Unfortunately, this doesn’t seem to be a concern to the market because most people believe they are getting richer. However, rapidly rising digital riches can easily turn into digital losses, just as quickly. But, this will likely remain a secret until the major fireworks begin in the markets by the this fall or within the next 1-2 years.
The central bank and investment banks have the power to crash the market right before the midterm elections to influence voting. I have seen this pattern repeated with both Ronald Reagan and George Bush, and we could be seeing it repeating once again for Donald Trump. The Fed and its dealer banks battle against Republican administrations, especially when they hold both houses of Congress, too.

“Government has coddled, accepted, and ignored white collar crime for too long. It is time the nation woke up and realized that it’s not the armed robbers or drug dealers who cause the most economic harm, it’s the white collar criminals living in the most expensive homes who have the most impressive resumes who harm us the most. They steal our pensions, bankrupt our companies, and destroy thousands of jobs, ruining countless lives.” – Harry Markopolos Read More
Emotions are the biggest challenge when a bear market hits. After spending years scrimping and saving to find money to invest and watching it grow slowly but steadily, it's painful to see stock market declines wipe out a significant chunk of your portfolio. Even for seasoned investors, the kneejerk reaction is often to want to put those losses to an end quickly and sell.
However, as we explained last December, this is a low-ball estimate which "understates the potential losses" as it "does not include high-yield bonds, fixed-rate mortgages, and fixed-income derivatives", which would suggest that the real number is likely more than double the estimated when taking into account all duration products. As a reminder, Goldman calculated the entire duration universe at $40 trillion as of the summer of 2016, resulting in $2.4 trillion in losses for a 1% move. By now the number is far, far greater.
Assuming that the decline from the January-2018 peak is a short-term correction that will run its course before the end March (my assumption since the correction’s beginning in late-January), the recent price action probably is akin to what happened in February-March of 2007. In late-February of 2007 the SPX had been grinding its way upward in relentless fashion for many months. Read More
The golden Colossus of Trump looms over the national scene this summer like one of Jeff Koons’s giant, shiny, balloon-puppy sculptures — a monumental expression of semiotic vacancy. At the apogee of Trumpdom, everything’s coming up covfefe. The stock market is 5000 points ahead since 1/20/17. Little Rocket Man is America’s bitch. We’re showing those gibbering Asian hordes and European café layabouts a thing or two about fair trade. Electric cars are almost here to save the day. And soon, American youth will be time-warping around the solar system in the new US Space Corps! Read More
There is definitely an argument to be made for having a slight overweight to cash when you start to feel wary on both sides of market, viewing both equities and bonds from a peak down. Nine to 12 months of cash reserve, rather than just six months, is the new norm for greater security, and to take some risk off the table and wait for a better opportunity to reinvest, he said.
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Murphy also included the District of Columbia in his research, and found it had a psychopathy level far higher than any other state. But this finding is an outlier, as Murphy notes, as it’s an entirely urban area and cannot be fairly compared with larger, more geographically diverse, US states. That said, as Murphy notes, “The presence of psychopaths in District of Columbia is consistent with the conjecture found in Murphy (2016) that psychopaths are likely to be effective in the political sphere.”
"We believe we are in a 'rolling bear market,' a market where risk assets across sectors and geographies reprice to account for the removal of central bank provided liquidity," Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson told TheStreet in September. "Less central bank liquidity support as we near the end of an economic cycle should bring higher volatility, as risk assets and markets lose some of their ability to absorb shocks. Our call is not for a simultaneous and large repricing across risk assets, but for a bear market that rolls through different assets and sectors at different times with the weakest links (Bitcoin, EM debt and equities, BTPs, funding spreads, base metals and early cycle industries like home builders and airlines) being hit first/hardest."
Lady Amelia has a tattoo of three bear cubs to honor her siblings, according to a profile in W magazine. — Kate Storey, Town & Country, "Who Is the 'Most Beautiful Royal,' Lady Amelia Windsor?," 24 Aug. 2018 The last reported bear attack in Yellowstone was in 2015, according to the National Park Service. — Stephen Sorace, Fox News, "Bear attacks, injures 10-year-old boy at Yellowstone National Park," 24 Aug. 2018 Authorities want to remind people that bears are wild animals and cornering them can be dangerous. — Kayla Fitzgerald, sacbee, "Bear crawls out from under house in King's Beach," 6 July 2018 Chinese equities have plunged into bear-market territory. — The Economist, "As its trade tussle with America heats up, China is on the back foot," 5 July 2018 For the past three years, Judge Cindy Lederman has walked by a half-dozen statues of playful bear cubs every day on her way up to her high-ceilinged, top-floor office looking out toward Miami's waterfront. — Adiel Kaplan, miamiherald, "She struck down gay adoption ban and handled notorious juvenile cases. Now she's retiring.," 3 July 2018 The trooper watched the bear walk through the neighborhood but then lost sight of it. — Christine Dempsey, courant.com, "Bold Burglar – A Bear — Binges On Barkhamsted House’s Food," 29 June 2018 But scientists believe the bears once had a much greater range, roaming through southern China, Vietnam and Myanmar. — Brigit Katz, Smithsonian, "This Ancient Panda Skull Belongs to a Previously Unknown Lineage," 20 June 2018 Many steps can be taken to avoid a bear attack, according to the U.S. Forest Service. — Lindsay Kimble, PEOPLE.com, "Summer Has Arrived — Here's How to Avoid Flesh-Eating Bacteria & More Warm Weather Health Hazards," 5 June 2018
The best advice I can give is to determine your proper asset allocation, which is one that properly balances your tolerance for risk with your long-term objectives. Stick with it through the good times and bad, and be sure to rebalance periodically if your portfolio drifts significantly from your target asset allocation. If you tend to react to bear markets (after the fact, by definition) by selling stocks, then you should consider hiring a financial advisor whose coaching can help you avoid these actions—they are detrimental to your long-term financial well-being.
Embrace uncertainty – Anyone who doesn’t follow this momentous maxim in coming years is likely to get one unpleasant shock after the next. Because the stable progression of the world economy since WWII is now coming to an end. What should have been a normal cyclical high in the next year or two, is now going to be the most massive implosion of a bubble full of debts and inflated assets. The system has been “successfully” manipulated for decades by central banks, certain commercial banks, the BIS in Basel and the IMF for the benefit of a small elite. Read More
2015–16 stock market selloff	18 August 2015		The Dow Jones fell 588 points during a two-day period, 1,300 points from August 18–21. On Monday, August 24, world stock markets were down substantially, wiping out all gains made in 2015, with interlinked drops in commodities such as oil, which hit a six-year price low, copper, and most of Asian currencies, but the Japanese yen, losing value against the United States dollar. With this plunge, an estimated ten trillion dollars had been wiped off the books on global markets since June 3.	[30] [31] [32]

The term dead cat bounce is market lingo for a "recovery" after markets decline due to fundamental reversals. Markets tend to bounce back after sharp declines as participants (human and digital) who have been trained to "buy the dips" once again buy the decline, and the financial media rushes to reassure everyone that nothing has actually changed, everything is still peachy-keen wonderfulness.
Interest rate rises remain a key reason for a bear market, though there is a greater danger when they are unexpected. In its analysis on U.S. bear markets since 1929, looking at 10 major bear markets since 1929, JP Morgan Asset Management offered three other potential causes for a bear market: recession, commodity spike and extreme valuations. Of these, recession and commodity prices are more influential than extreme valuations.
In addition, during World War II, the Empire of Japan considered wildfires as a possible weapon. During the spring of 1942, Japanese submarines surfaced near the coast of Santa Barbara, California, and fired shells that exploded on an oil field, very close to the Los Padres National Forest. U.S. planners hoped that if Americans knew how wildfires would harm the war effort, they would work with the Forest Service to eliminate the threat.[7][16] The Japanese military renewed their wildfire strategy late in the war: from November 1944 to April 1945, launching some 9,000 fire balloons into the jet stream, with an estimated 11% reaching the U.S.[23] In the end the balloon bombs caused a total of six fatalities: five school children and their teacher, Elsie Mitchell, who were killed by one of the bombs near Bly, Oregon, on May 5, 1945.[24] A memorial was erected at what today is called the Mitchell Recreation Area.
The first part of my answer is technical, what do the charts show. Well, a normal 50% DJIA retracement of its big gains from January 2016 to January 2018 would take this index down to 21070 and exactly fulfill the minimum requirement of a bear market, i.e. that the DJI falls 20%. The DJI now stands a little above 23500, about 12% down from its peak.
The world is familiar with FANG (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google), then came FAANG, Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Google. But are you familiar with BANNG? We would like to introduce to the world a countercyclical group of stocks that could be the biggest winners if FAANGs lose. BANNG = Barrick Gold, Agnico Eagle, Newmont Mining, Newcrest Mining, and Goldcorp. They are the collection of gold stocks that would appear in all the major gold stocks ETFs, major indices in their respective countries. They have the liquidity, market cap, dividends, along with being the group of some of the largest gold miners in the world. Barrick and Newmont are the largest gold miners in the world. Both FAANG and BANNG stocks are in a global equity fund managers MSCI ACWI Index (All Country World Index). Read More

The shares slumped -6.88% after dropping as much as -10% at the lows after the company’s CEO, in an interview with CNBC yesterday, failed to reassure market fears about a weakening financial position. The CEO suggested that the company will now urgently sell assets to address leverage and its precarious liquidity situation whereby it will have to rely on revolvers - and the generosity of its banks - now that it is locked out of the commercial paper market. Read More
I recently ran across a terrific chart in Grant’s Interest Rate Observer that got me thinking about Hyman Minsky and The Financial Instability Hypothesis. After remaining relatively unknown during the course of his lifetime, Minsky really came to fame in the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis as his hypothesis helped to explain what left most economists baffled: the fundamental cause of the crisis. Clearly, though, he has been forgotten just as quickly because, considering where we stand today, it’s obvious the economists with the greatest power to prevent another crisis have still not adopted his insights into their frameworks. Read More

This is untrue, because cycles of business activity have their origin in the expansion and contraction of credit, whose origin in turn is in central banks’ monetary policy and fractional reserve banking. Cycles of credit are then manifest in variations of business activity. Cycles are the cause, booms and slumps the consequence. It follows that if we understand the characteristics of the different phases, we can estimate where we are in the credit cycle. Read More
Water in faults vaporizes during an earthquake, depositing gold, according to a model published in the March 17 issue of the journal Nature Geoscience. The model provides a quantitative mechanism for the link between gold and quartz seen in many of the world's gold deposits, said Dion Weatherley, a geophysicist at the University of Queensland in Australia and lead author of the study. Read More
Municipal bonds have traditionally had very low rates of default as they are backed either by revenue from public utilities (revenue bonds), or state and local government power to tax (general obligation bonds). However, sharp drops in property valuations resulting from the 2009 mortgage crisis have led to strained state and local finances, potentially leading to municipal defaults. For example, Harrisburg, PA, when faced with falling revenues, skipped several bond payments on a municipal waste to energy incinerator and did not budget more than $68m for obligations related to this public utility. The prospect of Chapter 9 municipal bankruptcy was raised by the Controller of Harrisburg, although it was opposed by Harrisburg's mayor.[19]
By a very wide margin, this is the most optimistic that Americans have been about the future since I started The Economic Collapse Blog in late 2009.  Even though the middle class is shrinking, 102 million working age Americans do not have a job, and we are now 21 trillion dollars in debt, most people are feeling really good about things right now.  Especially among Republicans, there is an overwhelming consensus that the United States is starting to head in the right direction and that better times are ahead.  As a result, so many of the exact same people that were “prepping” while Barack Obama was in the White House are now partying now that Donald Trump is president. Read More
Fortunately, we do not have to make predictions right now. We can hedge by shorting the weakest stocks and we can adjust to changes in the technical evidence as needed. This is what I prefer. At the bottom, we should see bullish divergences of new DJI lows: (1) volume should pick up on rallies instead of declines, (2) closes should be above openings and (3) price downtrend-lines will then be broken. How far down the DJI will be at this point, when our Peerless system start giving Buys, I cannot say. But that’s what I am waiting for. Whatever the news is then, the Peerless Divergence-Buys will probably be a good time to buy. At least, that is what history shows. We are not at that point now. So, we have to be very careful about believing the first bounce up right now.
As longtime readers know, my work aims to 1) explain why the status quo -- the socio-economic-political system we inhabit -- is unsustainable, divisive, and doomed to collapse under its own weight and 2) sketch out an alternative Mode of Production/way of living that is sustainable, consumes far less resources while providing for the needs of the human populace -- not just for our material daily bread but for positive social roles, purpose, hope, meaning and opportunity, needs that are by and large ignored or marginalized in the current system. Read More
After falling from 1369 to 1167 in just four months, Gold is attempting to rally now, having risen to a high of 1237 recently. But as I shared in my previous article: “There is significant resistance ahead that could stall Gold’s rally, most notably 1244, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the entire drop from 1369 to 1167, and 1251 on a closing basis (1360-1184). If we close above the latter, then the bottom is likely in place and a truly historic rally has begun. There is plenty of upside from there.” Read More

The DJIA actually did a lot better than a lot of the other averages.  The Dow Jones transports were down just over 4%; 445 points.  the NASDAQ was down over 4% as well - 315 points. Weakness across the board in the stock market today.  And it's not just the homebuilders and the autos. I've been talking about those sectors as leading indicators and, yes, many of those stocks made new 52-week lows today as well. But they were not the worst performers on the day.
Smokey Bear is an American advertising icon created by the U.S. Forest Service with artist Albert Staehle,[1][2] possibly in collaboration with writer and art critic Harold Rosenberg.[3] In the longest-running public service advertising campaign in United States history, the Ad Council, the United States Forest Service (USFS), and the National Association of State Foresters (NASF) employ Smokey Bear to educate the public about the dangers of unplanned human-caused wildfires.[4][5]
The hedge fund long position in US dollar futures is also at an extreme right now, with the banks taking the other side. Unless there’s something devious going on behind the scenes in the reporting of this data (possible but not probable), the banks are positioned for a huge move higher in gold and a sell-off in the dollar. The only question is timing. Read More
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Variables may include; immigration reform that further “grows” our economy through assimilation of ever more people who can make each piece of the pie ever more expensive and buy up the overabundance of housing; and tax and policy structures that are favorable to population growth by making children less costly and even financially rewarding, increasing costs of pregnancy prevention, etc.
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/Strong Dollar Policy?There used to be a lot of talk about the so-called Strong Dollar Policy. We had the Strong Dollar Policy when Bill Clinton was President, George Bush; I guess when Barack Obama was President, as well. I've talked about it, I've written abo ...…

The financials were helping to lead the decline.  Again we have Morgan Stanley at a new 52-week low, down 3.3%. Goldman Sachs down 3.6%, a new 52-week low.  But really, the biggest losers on the day were the tech stocks. These have been the stand-outs. This is what has been holding up the market - the FAANG stocks, all of these technology infotech stocks - and a lot of people were actually describing them irrationally as a "safe havens".  I couldn't believe it when people were saying that tech stocks were the new "safe havens". When you hear stuff like that, you know you're close to the end.


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Pension funds need an annual average of 6,6% income growth to pay for their promises. Over the last decade, they are getting less than 0,5%. Millions of retirees need to cover for this shortfall in their pension funds, and sell their financial assets, littl by little. It will become structural and widespread, as demographics will further strengthen in this direction (more retirees needing additional funds, and less working people saving for retirement).

There is a popular notion, at least among American libertarians and gold bugs. The idea is that people will one day “get woke”, and suddenly realize that the dollar is bad / unbacked / fiat / unsound / Ponzi / other countries don’t like it. When they do, they will repudiate it. That is, sell all their dollars to buy consumer goods (i.e. hyperinflation), gold, and/or whatever other currency.

Third, the mostly toothless SEC has allowed the creation of all manner of leveraged tools (negative ETFS and put options) for hedging and shorting on DOWN-TICKS. This is something that was banned from 1934 to 2007 for good reason, viz. deepening the Depression. Did you know that even Herbert Hoover wanted to curb short-selling? But not our SEC. Not now. Hedge funds and big fund managers and wealthy investors can readily buy these leveraged shorts on indexes in a blink of an eye, without regard to the last tick. So, of course, they use them as the 65-dma has finally turned down and as support levels, one after another fail. We saw exactly what this can do to the market in October 1987. It fell 30%+ in three weeks back then. And the DJI was not so over-extended. It had been in a bull market for less than five years. But it did have a new Fed Chairman (Greenspan), just like now, who needed to be properly baptized and schooled by Wall Street under fire, so that he would be tamed, not rock the boat and be henceforth pledged to shore up the market if it again collapsed.
“If you pay peanuts, you get monkeys” is the perfect way to describe the current market. Investors are all playing the same game and reinforcing the passive investing trend by constantly plowing more money into passively managed funds. The management fee of the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (NYSE: IVV) is just 0.04% which is extremely low and positive for investors. However the low fees, mindless investment strategies, and extremely high valuations will lead to a catastrophe when the same mindless buying reverts to panicked, mindless selling.

RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook!https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/Abolish the Capital Gains Tax?If we simply had no capital gains tax, but wen are still taxing the worker on the value of his labor without any deductions whatsoever, I just don't think that's a fair system. That's one of the reasons I would not want to just ab ...…


According to a 2017 study by the Federal Reserve, 44% of Americans wouldn’t be able to cover an unexpected $400 expense without borrowing or selling something. Yes, nearly half the country can’t come up with $400 cash in an emergency. That’s stunning. The slightest mishap—a toothache, a minor car problem—will send them into debt or force them to sell something.
Numerous economists and investors are warning of another great financial crisis to come but few people want to listen to them. No crisis is ever exactly like the last one and the next great depression will be different from the last one. In the last depression those who had money were in a good financial position to ride it out but the next depression will see those with fiat money drowning in it as it becomes worthless.
AnnS, your “tri-county area” is undoubtedly flyover/filler state crap. And that’s why the banks are quick to take it back and unload it as soon as possible, because it most likely didn’t run up significantly to begin with thus the losses won’t be steep (and most likely the bulk of these properties were already FHA/VA/FME/FRE backed or will be now). In prime areas the banks are looking at jumbo loan balances that they and they alone are on the hook for the losses – often to the tune of 6 or even 7 figures EACH.
None of this means stocks were at a bottom Wednesday. At this point, we may need the classic “big puke moment” of capitulation to wipe out the remaining weak hands, restore enough fear and respect for the market and clear the air. No one knows when that will happen. But watch for a big whoosh down at an open, followed by a quick and sharp reversal, and some gains.
Feb 26, 2018 Of all the Timing Systems in these Public Stockcharts, only the Exceptional Bear Channel accurately forecasts the whip-saw reversals at the turning point. Most timers are now Bearish, just when a reversal is well in process, to a new all-time high in the major indexes. A better reason to follow me does not exist. There are multiple, head-fakes at the irregular Top
There’s simply no single answer to the question: What causes a bear market? It might be monetary conditions, yield curve shifts, surpluses, a sector implosion, excess demand reverting or bad legislation impacting property rights. But it likely won’t be what it was last time. Two bear markets in a row rarely start with the same causes because most investors are always fighting the last war and are prepared for what took them down last time.
With the Dow Jones Index falling 665 points today, the risk of a large market correction has just increased significantly.  Ironically, I discussed the very indicators that were setting up for a huge market correction in my newest video which I recorded on Tuesday.  Unfortunately, I wasn’t able to get the video posted on my Youtube channel on Friday morning and now on my website until late in the evening.
Are the metals markets ending a price correction in unison and preparing for a massive price advance? This is the question we asked our research team to investigate and their findings may help skilled traders identify great opportunities in the future. This multi-part research article will share our most recent opinion about the metals markets as well as share some critical new data that can shed some light into what we believe will become a massive upside price rally in the metals markets. Let's get into the data. Read More
Shall I give you the time frames and % of price cuts done by various lenders in this area to dump the REO’s? They are so ver ver predictable …… 4-6 weeks to first cut of 9.87 -11.11%, another 4 -6 weeks and another cut of antoher 7/5 -10%,….another 6 weeks and now they are 23 -30% of the original list……. ANd they always end up taking offers that are 7 -15% off the list price du jour….
A bull market is one marked with strong investor confidence and optimism. It is the opposite of a bear market, during which negatively prevails. In a bull market, stock prices go up. Like the term "bear market," the term "bull market" is derived from the way a bull attacks its prey. Because bulls tend to charge with their horns thrusting upward into the air, periods of rising stock prices are called bull markets. Unfortunately for investors, bull market periods that last too long can give way to bear markets.
A September 13, 2008, Wall Street Journal editorial prior to the election written by Phil Gramm, former Republican Senator and[21] campaign economic adviser to John McCain, and Mike Solon, former Policy Director under the George W. Bush Administration, suggested that looking at the Senators' respective states proved traditional Republican strategies, enacted by McCain, would be better for the economy than traditional Democratic strategies, enacted by Obama, arguing "Mr. Obama would stimulate the economy by increasing federal spending. Mr. McCain would stimulate the economy by cutting the corporate tax rate."[22] Gramm had introduced the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act[23] which editors of the same paper, The Wall Street Journal, pointed out in a March 10, 2009, article had been blamed for deregulating major corporations and "allowed for the creation of giant financial supermarkets that could own investment banks, commercial banks and insurance firms, something banned since the Great Depression. Its passage, critics say, cleared the way for companies that were too big and intertwined to fail."[24] That month, September 2008, would see record drops in the Dow, including a 778-point drop to 10,365.45 that was the worst since Black Monday of the 1987 stock market crash[25] and was followed by a loss of thousands of points over the next two months, standing at 8,046 on November 17 and including a 9% plunge in the S&P on December 1, 2008.
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook!https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/Abolish the Capital Gains Tax?If we simply had no capital gains tax, but wen are still taxing the worker on the value of his labor without any deductions whatsoever, I just don't think that's a fair system. That's one of the reasons I would not want to just ab ...…
In Tuesday’s episode of CNBC’s Mad Money, host Jim Cramer shared his view that a major breakthrough in the gold market could be near, reports Kitco. Cramer said that large speculators in gold are a good indicator of the metal’s direction and that, given the many short positions and the metal’s contrarian nature, we could see a spike in gold prices. Read More
It’s been 30-weeks since the last 6-month low (December). The intermediate cycle has averaged about 23-weeks, so we are well overdue for a bottom. Interestingly, while gold crashed nearly 10% in 2-months, gold miners remained relatively stable. Currently, they linger just 6% below their April highs; their resilience should not be ignored. It speaks of a hidden energy that once loose, should deliver brilliant gains. Read More
Second, Faber says "The market isn't healthy" because only a small number of stocks are driving the major indexes upward, per Money. "We have a bubble in everything," he told CNBC. However, in an earlier CNBC segment, Faber was castigated by another guest for  consistently forecasting a market crash since 2012. (For more, see also: Why the S&P 500 Is Healthier Than It Looks.)
Quite simply, I think stock investors looked at the surfacing of real problems in their favorite FAANG stocks and, so, failed this time to find any fun in the frivolous fiction of government factoids. GDP reportage has been fake for years, and it is no less fake under Trump than under any other president. Fake is where you find it. You can find it as much on Fox as on CNN.  Read More
The price of gold fell another ten bucks and that of silver another 28 cents. Perspective: if you’re waiting for the right moment to buy, the market is offering you a better deal than it did last week (literally, the price of gold is a 7.2% discount to the fundamental vs. 4.6% last week). If you wanted to sell, this wasn’t a good week to wait. Which is your intention, and why?

The world of finance and investment, as always, faces many uncertainties. The US economy is booming, say some, and others warn that money supply growth has slowed, raising fears of impending deflation. We fret about the banks, with a well-known systemically-important European name in difficulties. We worry about the disintegration of the Eurozone, with record imbalances and a significant member, Italy, digging in its heels. China’s stock market, we are told, is now officially in bear market territory. Will others follow? But there is one thing that’s so far been widely ignored and that’s inflation. Read More
In our 2018 Year Ahead, we compiled a list of bear market signposts that generally have occurred ahead of bear markets. No single indicator is perfect, and in this cycle, several will undoubtedly lag or not occur at all. But while single indicators may not be useful for market timing, they can be viewed as conservative preconditions for a bear market. Today, 13 of 19 (68%) have been triggered.
The Dow is now gyrating after it plunged to 16,450 Friday and experienced an intra-day swing of near 1,100 points on Monday, leaving it more than 10 percent below its record close in May. The Dow hit an 18-month low at 16,106 on Monday morning before it trimmed losses. The NASDAQ is down 11 percent from a record high reached earlier this year and is on pace for its worst month since November 2008.
It is a false premise that you can know when you’re in a bear market. Market observers are fond of looking at a downward sloping historical stock index chart and saying “the market is going down” or “we are in a bear market.” The truth is, the only thing you can say with certainty is that the market has gone down and perhaps we were in a bear market. Where it is going next or whether we are in a bear market is anyone’s guess.
At first the effect on the broader economy is minimal, so consumers, companies and governments don’t let a slight uptick in financing costs interfere with their borrowing and spending. But eventually rising rates begin to bite and borrowers get skittish, throwing the leverage machine into reverse and producing an equities bear market and Main Street recession. Read More
This system, defined as the Liberal International Order, is the framework of rules, alliances, and institutions that is credited with the relative peace and prosperity the world has enjoyed since 1945. So, if the order has lost support, will the world plunge into beggar-thy-neighbor protectionism? Worse, without the threat of military intervention by the US and its allies, will regional powers start to challenge one another?
TheEconomiCollapse.com's Michael Snyder thinks so. For a very long time, Ron Paul has been one of my political heroes.  His willingness to stand up for true constitutional values and to keep saying “no” to the Washington establishment over and over again won the hearts of millions of American voters, and I wish that there had been enough of us to send him to the White House either in 2008 or in 2012.  To this day, I still wish that we could make his classic work entitled “End The Fed” required reading in every high school classroom in America.  He was one of the few members of Congress that actually understood economics, and it is very sad that he has now retired from politics.  With the enormous mess that Washington D.C. has become, we sure could use a lot more statesmen like him right now. Read More
Traffic in Knoxville, Tennessee, can be a bear anytime, but in late spring the slowdowns on Neyland Drive are often caused by Canada geese. — Joelle Anthony, Audubon, November-December 2004 True, the rally has been around the corner since Memorial Day. But bears have dominated market sentiment for so long since the Federal Reserve Board raised interest rates last February, that traders feel the market is headed for a major tectonic shift … — Anthony Ramirez, New York Times, 19 July 1994 Hikers in the woods are far more likely to wear a bell to deter bears than to take precautions against bees. But bears kill two to seven people in North America annually, bee stings kill 600 to 900. — Allan J. Davison, Chemical & Engineering News, 15 Mar. 1993 a mother bear and her cubs The bears outnumbered the bulls on Wall Street today.
To the surprise of many investors, the precious metals have rallied while the broader markets continue to sell-off.  Currently, both gold and silver are solidly in the green while the major indexes were all the red following a huge sell-off yesterday.  The Dow Jones Index has lost nearly 1,000 points in the past two days while the gold price is up nearly $25.
Sorry this is all over the place, but there are multiple converging streams here. And as DHB constantly reminds us, there is absolutely no reason to believe that in an economy built on gambling, scamming, and computer automated profit skimming, ANYTHING is going to accrue bubble-type benefits to just you and me, anytime soon. Least of all your house.
This chart does a simple comparison of Osaka condo and Tokyo condo prices which does not reflect the entirety of the Japanese housing market.  Yet the path seems very similar.  Large areas with a real estate frenzy that hit high peaks and have struggled ever since.  In fact, if we look at nationwide prices we realize that Japan has seen a 20 year bear market in real estate:
I might add that you might enjoy reading a 1984 science fiction that predicted our situation in a very amusing light (something I really needed) - Home Sweet Home 2010 A.D., by Mack Reynolds and Dean Ing. A little colorful language, but a deft and delightfully irreverent satire. Fortunately, I can still afford the occasional second-hand paperback. Published in 1984, the paperback originally sold for $2.95. I got it used for 50 cents at a going-out-of-business sale this year. New paperbacks run as much as $12 each. Could that be a hint of inflation?
As the stock markets continue setting records day after day, many investors are becoming more and more concerned about the potential over-valuation and a possible market correction. The widely-followed cyclically-adjusted price-earnings ratio (Shiller PE) reached 31.2, almost twice as much as the historical average of 16.8. While market valuation may not be a good timing indicator (see If Jeremy Grantham Has a Changing Heart on Value Investing, Should You?),  does it have any impact on the severity of a bear market when it happens?
After a period of excellent returns since 2008, Gilts will no longer be a profitable investment and those investors that ventured into Gilts as a way of increasing income from cash could get a nasty surprise when they realise how sensitive Gilt prices are to changes in yield.  With the 10 year yield at just 1.3% compared to an inflation rate of 3.1%, those investors are already suffering a loss in real terms.  But if we get an adjustment back to a positive real yield, the capital loss will be extremely damaging to prices.  For long dated securities, losses could be in excess of 20% for a movement in yield of just 1% and that would be just the start of the adjustment.  That recovery period could stretch into years.
This all seems pretty gloomy. There is one key element missing, however, and that is exuberance. Bear markets usually start when there has been a mania of some kind. Bitcoin might count, but it remains a small area of financial markets, and elsewhere there is relatively little enthusiasm in evidence. There is no "suspension of disbelief" in mainstream equity markets, which would suggest that there could be further to run if some of the immediate concerns were allayed.
Falling investor confidence is perhaps more powerful than any economic indicator, and it also often signals a bear market. When investors believe something is going to happen (a bear market, for example), they tend to take action (selling shares in order to avoid losses from expected price decreases), and these actions can ultimately turn expectations into reality. Although it is a difficult measure to quantify, investor sentiment shows through in mathematical measurements such as the put/call ratio, the advance/decline line, IPO activity and the amount of outstanding margin debt.

Conventional economics holds that it is incentives—carrots and sticks—which drive individual economic actors to do what they do, and thus leads to economic growth. Although incentives are important, they are not the main driver of growth. The Neanderthal in his cave had the same incentive to eat and access to the same raw materials as we do today. Yet, our economy is vastly more advanced, why?


Smokey Bear is an American advertising icon created by the U.S. Forest Service with artist Albert Staehle,[1][2] possibly in collaboration with writer and art critic Harold Rosenberg.[3] In the longest-running public service advertising campaign in United States history, the Ad Council, the United States Forest Service (USFS), and the National Association of State Foresters (NASF) employ Smokey Bear to educate the public about the dangers of unplanned human-caused wildfires.[4][5]
If I were the devil, I would desire the most efficient system of governance whereby maximum control could be exerted over the greatest amount of people at any given time. I would identify those who stood in my way and take them down either by force or subversion.  There would be no room in my world for individuality, free thought, or vain imaginings of anything, or anyone, more powerful than me.  As an orchestrator of chaos, the only unity I could tolerate would be that which served both my means and ends.
Municipal bonds provide tax exemption from federal taxes and many state and local taxes, depending on the laws of each state. Municipal securities consist of both short-term issues (often called notes, which typically mature in one year or less) and long-term issues (commonly known as bonds, which mature in more than one year). Short-term notes are used by an issuer to raise money for a variety of reasons: in anticipation of future revenues such as taxes, state or federal aid payments, and future bond issuances; to cover irregular cash flows; meet unanticipated deficits; and raise immediate capital for projects until long-term financing can be arranged. Bonds are usually sold to finance capital projects over the longer term.
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