Research from Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff shows that when a country’s government debt-to-GDP ratio stays over 90% for more than five years, its economy loses around one-third of its growth rate. Lacy also points out that “the longer the debt overhang persists, the relationship between economic growth and debt becomes nonlinear.” This is happening to the US today with the economy growing at only half its long-term growth rate.
Capitalism is not chiefly an incentive system but an information system. The key to economic growth is not acquisition of things by the pursuit of monetary rewards, but the expansion of wealth through learning and discovery. The economy grows by accumulating surprising knowledge through the conduct of the falsifiable experiments of free enterprises.
Total sales in November rose 0.9% from a year ago to 1,393,010 new vehicles, according to Autodata, which tracks these sales as they’re reported by the automakers. Sales of cars dropped 8.2%. Sales of trucks – which include SUVs, crossovers, pickups, and vans – rose 6.6%. Strong replacement demand from the hurricane-affected areas in Texas papered over weaknesses elsewhere. As always, there were winners and losers. Read More
Having read Crash Proof and many other "Dollar is Doomed" books ..this give a great current synopsis on the happening events ... it is weird to read/hear Mr Schiff and is bolf predictions somehow come true. Even though flight to quality in the 'dollar' has hurt many of Mr. Schiffs investments ('currently') .. his insight on the future for our American way of life makes the book a must read.
I want you to understand this. This was no speedy drive by. This was a 16-hour trip, by two U.S. warships enforcing their right to travel international waters -- waters that China would obviously dispute the use of the word "international" as descriptive. The U.S. ships were shadowed by Chinese warships. This is cold war behavior. Been there, done that.
And more to the point, even though tech has on average done well over the last 20 years, most tech firms have gone bankrupt. Buying the market and a broad basket of companies isn’t speculating. It is just assuming that, like always, in the long-term, the biggest 100-200-300 companies in the US or elsewhere will be worth more money in 10-20-30 years than today.
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebookhttps://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/Fed Responsible for Most Recent Move UpI think what's really responsible for this most recent move up is the Fed comments. Now maybe Trump can take credit for those, maybe President Trump was able to get Jerome Powell's mind right after all, when it comes to ra ...…

Dr. D: The money, the unaccountable, uninhibited release of tokens can do more than just buy centuries of hard labor in seconds, it‘s also a method of control. Banks, our present issuers of money, can approve or destroy businesses by denying loans. They can do this to individuals, like denying loans to unpopular figures, or to whole sectors, like gun shops. They can also offer money for free to Amazon, Facebook, and Tesla, which have no profitable business model or any hope of getting one, and deny loans to power plants, railroads, farms, and bridges as they fall into the Mississippi. 


"Less central bank liquidity support as we near the end of an economic cycle should bring higher volatility as risk assets and markets lose some of their ability to absorb shocks. Our call is not for a simultaneous and large repricing across risk assets, but for a bear market that rolls through different assets and sectors at different times with the weakest links (Bitcoin, EM debt and equities, BTPs, funding spreads, base metals, and early cycle industries like home builders and airlines) being hit first/hardest."
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/FAANG's Took a Big Bite Out of the MarketAnother Monday, another big down day for the U.S. stock market, it is turning out to be one hell of a quarter; not all of the declines happening in October. But as I said earlier, it doesn't have to be in October for th ...…
Same thing with the hiring of Bolton, a bellicose fire-brand who never met a war he did not want to enjoin, even though (or because) he himself never served in combat. He replaces a combat veteran, McMaster, who was expected to restrain Trump. Will Trump, who also never served in combat, might just want to start a quick little war some place to shore up his low approval ratings? This, too, worries Wall Street, which likes military preparedness a lot more than the uncertainties of actual war.
The 2000-02 bear market environment was similar. In short, a decent market bounce was overdue but it’s too early to write off the bears. Rough start not a bad omen Prior to last week’s bounce, there was much gnashing of teeth regarding how stocks had endured one of their worst starts to a year. Investors are still scarred by 2008, when early declines proved a foretaste of further bloodletting. But, an early-year bruising is not an inherently ominous affair, says an LPL Financial note. It found 19 cases where stocks endured heavy losses during the first six weeks of the year; on average, stocks returned 5.3 per cent over the remainder of the year, with positive returns ensuing in 58 per cent of occasions. In fact, 2008 is an exceptional case: over the last 40 years, it was the only time where a rough beginning to a year was followed by double-digit losses. There continues to be much chatter about 2016 being 2008 redux but a “sizable drop from here for the rest of the year”, says LPL, “would be extremely rare”.
James Grant, financial journalist and historian, is the founder and editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, a twice-monthly journal of the investment markets. His new book, The Forgotten Depression, 1921: the Crash that Cured Itself, a history of America’s last governmentally unmedicated business-cycle downturn, won the 2015 Hayek Prize of the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research.
The stock market has stayed strong for close to a decade now, and along the way, it's produced impressive returns for stock investors. Yet this far into a bull market, the biggest fear for many people who are considering putting money into stocks is that they could end up investing at exactly the wrong time: right before a bear market hits and devastates their portfolios.
Sep. 6, 2018 2:03 AM ET| Includes: BIBL, BXUB, BXUC, CHGX, CRF, DDM, DIA, DMRL, DOG, DUSA, DXD, EDOW, EEH, EPS, EQL, EQWS, ESGL, FEX, FWDD, GSEW, HUSV, IVV, IWL, IWM, JHML, JKD, OMFS, OTPIX, PMOM, PPLC, PSQ, QID-OLD, QLD, QQEW, QQQ, QQQE, QQXT, RSP, RVRS, RWM, RYARX, RYRSX, SCAP, SCHX, SDOW, SDS, SFLA, SH, SMLL, SPDN, SPLX, SPSM, SPUU, SPXE, SPXL, SPXN, SPXS, SPXT, SPXU-OLD, SPXV, SPY, SQQQ, SRTY, SSO, SYE, TNA, TQQQ, TWM, TZA, UDOW, UDPIX, UPRO, URTY, USA, USMC, USSD, USWD, UWM, VFINX, VOO, VTWO, VV, ZF
Although the U.S. Forest Service fought wildfires long before World War II, the war brought a new importance and urgency to the effort. At the time, most able-bodied men were already serving in the armed forces and none could be spared to fight forest fires. The Forest Service began using colorful posters to educate Americans about the dangers of forest fires in the hope that local communities, with the most accurate information, could prevent them from starting in the first place.[7][16]
I’ve read all of Matt Kratter’s books. Why? I used the simple but powerful strategies in Covered Calls, Rubber Band Stocks, Monthly Cash Machine, and Rocket Stocks. The Options strategies realized an annual yield exceeding 12% coupled with Stock Equity strategies yielding an annualized 90%. I simply followed the strategies because I’m a novice, not the brightest bulb. These strategies were adequate for advancing stock markets but there are now signs of an approaching market in decline. The BEAR has been observed prowling so I read Matt’s newest selection Bear Market Trading Strategies. I’m now informed, ready for the declining markets and am enthused. Matt has again gifted his readers with his talent of deconstructing the complex so a rational novice may continue to conservatively place trades. He advises on how to avoid negative-carry and using Options cautiously, trading with the trend. Matt advises of the dangers and promotes rationality and caution. He tells you the best times to buy and sell using simple highest price/closing price indicators. Then Matt tells the reader how to determine when the Bear is returning to the den. He devotes a chapter on how to short momentum stocks using the simple 50 and 200 day moving averages and provides historical data as confirmation. Matt wraps up by providing a strategy of buying certain stocks that other investors are selling. There are strategies in this book that I would be uncomfortable with but there are other strategies that I am comfortable with. I’ll choose and carefully implement those comfortable strategies and, given my past profitable experiences with Matt’s books, I’ll make a few nickels. ...and be sure to view Matt's videos!

Beyond all this, there is the impulsiveness of our beloved President Trump who actually does what he says he would do in his campaign. Until the end of January 2018, Wall Street thought he could be controlled and would only do the things they approved of. But Trump has his own agenda. So, now Wall Street has no choice but to worry about a trade war that could easily escalate. Why do you think so many of Trump’s advisors have recently left or been fired? They wanted him to be more cautious. But Trump wanted to keep the faith with his base and put tariffs up on steel, etc. to protect American manufacturing. Never mind, the consequences of Smoot-Hawley in 1930 when Europe was already suffering. N ever mind, the fact that so very much of what we buy in the US now comes from China. We cannot possibly start to make all the things we now import. Never mind, how much consumer prices will rise. And never mind the fact that successful sales of US Treasuries to finance our national debt depends on China. Trump’s economic nationalism is a very abrupt change from the last 30+ years of internationalism. Wall Street has grown rich and fat on such internationalism. Stock prices, especially for the big multi-nationals in the DJIA and the NASDAQ can only make adjustments to Trump’s tariffs by declining. Even if Trump backs away from his tariffs’ plan, Wall Street cannot feel quite safe. Trump has shown he wants to get votes in the “Rust-belt” at Wall Street’s expense. Horrors!
The chief bad idea in economics today is that most economists regard the discipline as a “pure science.” Economists have succumbed to what I call physics envy: They want their less-than-precise discipline to be considered a hard science, too. Unfortunately, economics—which concerns itself with unpredictable human behavior—is fundamentally incompatible with science.
If you were standing in the smoldering ashes of 9/11 trying to peer into the future, you might have been overjoyed to discover this happy snapshot of 2018: There has been no subsequent major terrorist attack on America from Al Qaeda or its heirs. American troops are not committed en masse to any ground war. American workers are enjoying a blissful 4 percent unemployment rate. The investment class and humble 401(k) holders alike are beneficiaries of a rising GDP and booming stock market that, as measured by the Dow, is up some 250 percent since its September 10, 2001, close. The most admired person in America, according to Gallup, is the nation’s first African-American president. Read More

Well Danny – let me tell you something. There are many, many other people out there who are intelligent and REFUSE TO BE TAKEN TO THE CLEANERS. Real estate is WAY overpriced in many areas, so if you say that we basically “need to pay at least 97% of the asking price,” I say you are the epitome of an UN-professional. You do not have the best interests of you buyers at heart. You only have your own selfish interests in mind.
What happened? Bank of America keeps a running tally of so-called “signposts” that signal a bear market coming ’round the bend. This month, the analysts checked two more off the list, bringing the total to 14 out of 19 indicators. The latest signals include the VIX volatility index climbing above 20, and surveys of investors showing that many think they will continue to go up, a classic contrarian indicator.
In today's low interest rate environment, equity is being retired by many companies through stock buybacks. Many mergers are still being done with debt...since it is less expensive than issuing stock. Also, I would argue that the value of a well run company with good finances and a rising dividend stream is far greater, per se, than it has been historically.
The FBI brass must have needed hazmat suits to scrub DOJ Inspector General Michael Horowitz’s report on agency misconduct in the 2016 elections, since the evidence of treason at the highest level of government was abundant. The truth is being hidden, and the result is a fiction representative of something out of Orwell’s ‘1984‘; and so, we must do everything within our power to force the issue in opposition to status quo voices in government and the media, who are not representing the U.S. Constitution and objectives based on our founding virtues, We must hold these criminals, these traitors, in the FBI, the DOJ and elsewhere within the government, accountable for illegally working to prevent Donald Trump from winning the election and afterwards trying to unseat him from power.  Read More
Bill Pawelec taught me the meaning and importance of predictive programming. As a result, I am going to reveal a partially redacted, but very relevant email from a member of my audience about the extreme relevance of predictive programming. And then I am going to allow the predictive words of my late friend, CIA contract agent and former Air Force Intel operative, Bill Pawelec, who revealed what is coming and I fear we will not have to wait very long this to happen.

The entire defense sector reports this week. At least the big guys do. Margin compression and the potential for lost contracts weigh heavy on these stocks right now. This is one area where I will be slow to withdraw amid weakness. Domestic and allied monies intended for this space will not draw down in a Cold War environment. Lockheed Martin (LMT) reports this morning. The numbers should be good. However, the firm has a number of deals in place with Saudi Arabia. My plan is to wait for the call before doing anything stupid. Boeing (BA) , General Dynamics (GD) , and Northrop Grumman (NOC) all report tomorrow morning, while Raytheon (RTN) will go to the tape on Thursday morning.
It’s not a coincidence that populism emerged as a political force in both the 1920s–1930s, and again today. In each case, people at the bottom could tell the economy wasn’t working in their favor. The best tool they had to do something about it was the vote, so they elected FDR then, and Trump now. Two very different presidents, but both responsive to the most intensely angered voters of their eras.
Meeker provided an eloquent defense of short sales. He argued that the bears stabilize prices by providing liquidity and creating demand – by covering their shorts – in a falling market. Shorting was not illegitimate, in his view. “A short sale,” wrote Meeker, “represents a debt contracted in goods rather than money.” In this it was similar to many other business contracts.

The end game is upon us. With our aging demographic and continued employment loss, the US will have to maintain a policy of easy money and more QE. This will not bode well for real estate as employment is a key factor for paying a mortgage. The kids coming out of college arent finding good jobs and this will continue. So it’s monetary debasement with rising commodity costs. For as far as the eye can see.

One new factor in today's market is that there is a constant inflow of incremental money from pension and individual retirement plans well in excess of whatever may have existed in the past. Also, in past rising markets, new equity supply would be forthcoming through equity offerings and equity mergers when prices started to indicate a rich valuation.

I wrote an article titled “Are Derivative-Based ETFs Sowing The Seeds Of The Next Financial Crisis?” for Seeking Alpha a few months ago. I concluded that ETF’s don’t do what it says on the tin (mimic the underlying asset) and that they are slowly mutating into more complex financial instruments like collateralized debt obligations, which I drew disturbing parallels with the subprime mortgage crisis. It would be therefore foolish for any retail investors to see them as a panacea to gaining exposure to virtually any asset.
Last week more than a handful of subscribers alerted me to Jim Rickards’ beliefthat China has pegged the SDR (an IMF reserve currency) Gold price from 850-950 SDR/oz and this is what is impacting the Gold price. Rickards writes that the peg is too cheap given the scarce supply of Gold and that the IMF will print trillions of SDRs during the next global financial crisis. Read More

Since communications can be business ideas, information theory is applicable to anything transmitted over time and space—including entrepreneurial creations. In the economy, the entrepreneur has to distinguish amidst the noise, a signal that a particular good or service is needed. But if some force—a government or central bank—distorts the signal by adding “noise to the line,” the entrepreneur could have difficulty interpreting the signal.
Two weeks after we reported that GE had found itself locked out of the commercial paper market following downgrades that made it ineligible for most money market investors, the pain has continued, and yesterday General Electric lost just over $5bn in market capitalization. While far less than the $49bn wiped out from AAPL the same day, it was arguably the bigger headline grabber.
What bothers me is the wholesale move in our nation/economy in the US, and particularly CA and probably the Left Coast in general, is toward the license-and-rent economy, which at bottom is serfdom. In this system you rent your very right to exist. Not only do you have to pay for the basic sustenances of food and housing, but also water, and quiet, and movement necessary to do your job to get your cash to pay for everything you can no longer make yourself. You buy your house, then forever have to rent a place to put it from your municipality/county, just like at a trailer park. Ownership? Good heavens, all you own, someday, maybe, is the title to what sits atop the soil.
"We expect both a deterioration in earnings quality and a peak in organic growth in 2018," Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's chief US equity strategist, wrote in a client note. "The bear market in valuations has already begun and supports our overall view that the next cyclical bear market in US equities may have already begun, but is being masked by an index price level that has fallen only 12% thanks to the adrenaline shot to EPS from tax."
The Outsider Club is a group of people ready to take our finances into our own hands; to manage our own investments; to not give into a system that skims off the top until it's time for you to retire. We offer expert opinion and guidance on saving, retirement and financial planning, taxes, investments, and generally how to financially thrive on your own, independent of the banking system and government. We'll also help you shield your civil liberties and freedoms. We pledge allegiance to no political party.
I want you to understand this. This was no speedy drive by. This was a 16-hour trip, by two U.S. warships enforcing their right to travel international waters -- waters that China would obviously dispute the use of the word "international" as descriptive. The U.S. ships were shadowed by Chinese warships. This is cold war behavior. Been there, done that.
Globalization has lost its political support, and that raises an important question about the future of the global economy. If globalization has fallen out of favor with large swaths of the voting public, what does the future look like for the American-led order which has promoted economic liberalization and liberal values around the world since the end of WWII?
Smokey's debut poster was released on August 9, 1944, which is considered the character's birthday.[2][19][20] Overseen by the Cooperative Forest Fire Prevention Campaign (CFFP), the first poster was illustrated by Albert Staehle. In it Smokey was depicted wearing jeans and a campaign hat,[6][21] pouring a bucket of water on a campfire. The message underneath reads, "Smokey says – Care will prevent 9 out of 10 forest fires!" Knickerbocker Bears gained the license to produce Smokey Bear dolls in 1944.[22] Also in 1949, Forest Service worker Rudy Wendelin became the full-time campaign artist and he was considered Smokey Bear's "manager" until Wendelin retired in 1973.[2]
You only have to observe how the word “globalist” has become a slur to see that people have turned against liberal internationalism and those who support it. Globalization has been terrible for millions of middle- and working-class Americans, and they are very unlikely to vote for politicians who support it. By lowering the living standards for millions of Americans, the Liberal International Order has become the architect of their own downfall.
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Griffin’s book is a humdinger and will certainly upset brainwashed American super-patriots, but it throughly documents how Washington’s aggression toward other lands is covered up by politicians, media, and court historians with moral verbiage. In my view the hubris, arrogance, and ignorance of “American exceptionism” has the world locked on a trajectory to its extinction in nuclear Armageddon. Read More


Also, matter can neither be created or distroyed. Is the same true with wealth? Do we have a finite “pie” of wealth that moves from “family” to “family” over time? Let’s consider a given “life cycle” of family wealth. 2 to 3 generations work to build wealth. 2 to 3 generations maintain that wealth. 2 to 3 generations blow the family fortune…. in general. All of this happening when other “families” are building, some other “family” is blowing it.
Velocity can also tell us about the long-term direction of bond yields. As velocity is a main determinate of nominal GDP, and yields track nominal GDP, Lacy believes that the secular low for interest rates are not in hand: “In my view, we will not see the secular low in interest rates until the velocity of money reaches its secular trough, and that is not something that’s going to happen soon.”
However, as we explained last December, this is a low-ball estimate which "understates the potential losses" as it "does not include high-yield bonds, fixed-rate mortgages, and fixed-income derivatives", which would suggest that the real number is likely more than double the estimated when taking into account all duration products. As a reminder, Goldman calculated the entire duration universe at $40 trillion as of the summer of 2016, resulting in $2.4 trillion in losses for a 1% move. By now the number is far, far greater.
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