“In retrospect, the spark might seem as ominous as a financial crash, as ordinary as a national election, or as trivial as a Tea Party. The catalyst will unfold according to a basic Crisis dynamic that underlies all of these scenarios: An initial spark will trigger a chain reaction of unyielding responses and further emergencies. The core elements of these scenarios (debt, civic decay, global disorder) will matter more than the details, which the catalyst will juxtapose and connect in some unknowable way. If foreign societies are also entering a Fourth Turning, this could accelerate the chain reaction. At home and abroad, these events will reflect the tearing of the civic fabric at points of extreme vulnerability – problem areas where America will have neglected, denied, or delayed needed action.” – The Fourth Turning– Strauss & Howe  Read More
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast Wherever you listen.https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/the-peter-schiff-show-podcast/id404963432?mt=2&ls=1Ridiculous Rhetoric in TariffsOne of the drivers behind the increasing cost of living is going to be the tariffs. The rhetoric here is really ridiculous. Talking heads on the mainstream media say, "We've got Ch ...…
RATE AND REVIEW This Podcasthttps://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/the-peter-schiff-show-podcast/id404963432?mt=2&ls=1Alex Jones BannedAlex Jones was banned from iTunes, Facebook, YouTube - his entire YouTube Channel is gone! He had over a million subscribers. The Alex Jones videos on my YouTube channel where I appeared as a guest are still up, bu ...…
The 5 percent down is not all that risky for fund investors because the quality of the borrowers is high and the fact that the Freedom Note would pay down to $294,557 by only the third year; while with the Slave Note, your balance is $654,809 by the third year. So with the Slave Note, after 3 years your balance has reduced by $45,190 or 6 percent while with the Freedom Note, even though the rate is over twice the Slave Note, it reduces its balance by $44,233 or 13% – yes 13 percent!
The Pecora hearings, as they became known (after their lead counsel, Ferdinand Pecora), revealed the seamier side of Wall Street during the bull market: the involvement of leading firms and bankers in the manipulation of share prices, the dumping of unseasoned securities on an innocent public, the fleecing of the firms’ own clients, the preferential distribution of shares to favored friends, and so on.
Erik:     Now this massive, massive accumulation of debt in the United States – people like you and I can say this is crazy, the rate that it’s happening at – but, holy cow, look at China. I mean, they’re in a whole different category of rate of accumulation of national debt. It seems to me like they’re trying to almost race the United States to who can get more over-indebted faster.
One of the strangest things about this strangest-ever expansion has been the way pretty much everything went up. Stocks, bonds, real estate, art, oil – some of which have historically negative correlations with others — all rose more-or-less in lock-step. And within asset classes, the big names behaved the same way, rising regardless of their relative valuation.

I live in San Diego and observed a very interesting phenomenon recently in the local real estate market. It looks like in early 2011, one or more banks sent out a small flood of properties on the market. And these properties sat there for a while and got a few price cuts as it became apparent that the demand was just not there. Eventually most of those properties have disappeared (presumably sold, or maybe delisted). And since then, NOTHING. I mean virtually NOTHING has hit the market recently. I assume that potential sellers and banks saw what happened and have decided not to shake loose any more shadow inventory.


Central banks may tweak a few rates here and there, announce some tapering due to “economic growth”, or deflect attention to fiscal policy, but the entire financial and capital markets system rests on the strategies, co-dependencies and cheap money policies of central banks.  The bond markets will feel the heat of any tightening shift or fears of one, while the stock market will continue to rush ahead on the reality of cheap money supply until debt problems tug at the equity markets and take them down.Read More
The bear market always proceeds in a manner which discourages investors from selling anywhere near the top.  The biggest losses and the gloomiest media coverage occurs only at the end, encouraging investors to sell in disappointment just before each bear-market bottom.  The biggest monthly outflow in U.S. history occurred in February 2009, just before one of the strongest and longest bull markets in history.
The 2000-02 bear market environment was similar. In short, a decent market bounce was overdue but it’s too early to write off the bears. Rough start not a bad omen Prior to last week’s bounce, there was much gnashing of teeth regarding how stocks had endured one of their worst starts to a year. Investors are still scarred by 2008, when early declines proved a foretaste of further bloodletting. But, an early-year bruising is not an inherently ominous affair, says an LPL Financial note. It found 19 cases where stocks endured heavy losses during the first six weeks of the year; on average, stocks returned 5.3 per cent over the remainder of the year, with positive returns ensuing in 58 per cent of occasions. In fact, 2008 is an exceptional case: over the last 40 years, it was the only time where a rough beginning to a year was followed by double-digit losses. There continues to be much chatter about 2016 being 2008 redux but a “sizable drop from here for the rest of the year”, says LPL, “would be extremely rare”.
Beyond that, self-motivation is an issue even for people who are hard-working. Most of the people reading this have probably gone to the gym, tried to lose weight and/or gain muscle. How many have successes? How many of people reading this have remained constantly motivated day in day out, year in year out? That is tough, but being a rational investor, requires that kind of discllipine.
Hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones, in an interview with Goldman Sachs, predicted a rise in inflation and a surge in the 10-year Treasury yield. Noted bond investor Bill Gross recently said the bear market in bond prices has begun. Billionaire investor Warren Buffett told CNBC on Monday he believes long-term investors should buy stocks over bonds.
There’s a paradox at the heart of global finance. The U.S. share of the world economy has drifted lower for decades, and now President Trump is retreating from the American chief executive’s traditional role as Leader of the Free World. Yet the U.S. dollar remains, as the saying goes, almighty. “American exceptionalism has never been this stark,” Ruchir Sharma, head of emerging markets and chief global strategist for Morgan Stanley Investment Management, said at a Council on Foreign Relations symposium on Sept. 24. Read More

Dark Ages is not a silly username—it is a compelling fear that we are repeating the mistakes of all great civilizations, with arrogance that we can merely crush nations that will not continue to take our paper for their tangible goods. I don’t know whether folks dismiss this ranting as nonsense or actually are concerned that this is where we are headed. I cannot imagine a rainbow behind this cloud, although I was in North Carolina recently and saw a beautiful rainbow to the east, while death and destruction were occurring underneath that storm.

The Dow is now gyrating after it plunged to 16,450 Friday and experienced an intra-day swing of near 1,100 points on Monday, leaving it more than 10 percent below its record close in May. The Dow hit an 18-month low at 16,106 on Monday morning before it trimmed losses. The NASDAQ is down 11 percent from a record high reached earlier this year and is on pace for its worst month since November 2008.
JOIN PETER at the New Orleans Investment Conferencehttps://neworleansconference.com/conference-schedule/A Very Volatile and Technically Weak Trading Day for the DowHere I am for the third day in a row doing a podcast. It's market volatility that has brought me to the mic yet again. The Dow Jones down 525 points; a very volatile and technically ...…

It is isn’t egotism and lack of self-motivation that causes us to trade more. Panic and greed also play a part. It is a natural human emotion to want to invest more when markets are going well, or sell when markets are down or at least to stop contributing. Studies that shown that if you tell somebody that they have a 95% chance of making money, they are more likely to invest than if you tell them they have a 5% chance of losing money.


Some nasty dark clouds are forming on the financial horizon as total world debt is increasing nearly three times as fast as total global wealth.   But, that’s okay because no one cares about the debt, only the assets matter nowadays.  You see, as long as debts are someone else’s problem, we can add as much debt as we like… or so the market believes.

Rising mortgage rates will certainly cause housing sales to fall. Prices will follow for those houses that have to sell because, as mortgage interest rises, people won’t qualify for as large a mortgage as they do now. It’s all part of the developing Epocalypse in which multiple industries collapse into the final depths of the Great Recession as the fake recovery fades out of existence like a mirage. Read More
The transportation sector is a reflection of the goods-based economy in the US. Demand has been blistering across all modes of transportation. Freight shipment volume (not pricing… we’ll get to pricing in a moment) by truck, rail, air, and barge, according to the Cass Freight Index  jumped 10.6% in July compared to a year earlier. This pushed the index, which is not seasonally adjusted, to its highest level for July since 2007.
A secular bear market lasts anywhere between five and 25 years. The average length is around 17 years. During that time, typical bull and bear market cycles can occur. But asset prices will return to the original level. There is often a lot of debate as to whether we are in a secular bull or bear market. For example, some investors believe we are currently in a bear market that began in 2000.

A bear market rally is a trend that tends to trick investors into thinking the bull market is on the rise again -- but is, in fact, an upward trend where the stock market posts gains for a couple days or weeks but drops again. There may be several bear market rallies within a regular bear market, but an upward trend can't be considered a bull market until market prices rise 20% or more. 


I think of velocity as a machine which money has to go through to produce economic activity. If the machine is on a low setting, it doesn’t matter how much money you put in—you won’t get growth. The falling velocity of money, which is at its lowest point since 1949, is another reason why growth has remained subdued in the post-financial crisis world.
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With the FANG stocks faltering lately investors are starting to become concerned about their impact on the broader market. And there is certainly something to this. Statistically speaking, these market generals have become increasingly important to the broad market indexes recently so it only stands to reason that an important reversal here could make for a more difficult equity environment in general. Read More
Now the Bruce and Nellie Ohr syory is actually funny and a complete novel yet it digs to the heart and the real meat of the deep tentacles these rascals were using… The Ohr story is the best proof yet and I will never believe Sessions and company did not know all this long ago. Like before he recused……These people are like impacted infected wisdom teeth that need pulling and maybe cracking with a hammer first to get it all out….
Now the similarities are closely aligned in terms of banking policy.  Our Federal Reserve followed a more aggressive path than Japan in bailing out our large banks.  Yet all this did was make the too big to fail even bigger and exacerbated underlying issues in our economy.  Four full years into the crisis and we are still dealing with a massive amount of shadow inventory.  Remember the initial days when the talk was about working through the backlog of properties in a clean and efficient manner?  Whatever happened to that?  Banks operate through balance sheet accounting and it has made more sense to pretend the shadow inventory has somehow maintained peak prices while chasing other financial bubbles in other sectors.  Not a hard way to make money when you can borrow from the Fed for virtually zero percent.

These two early pieces of legislation against short- selling reveal a common theme in the history of the bears. Bubbles occur when speculators drive asset prices far above their intrinsic value. The collapse of a bubble is frequently accompanied by an economic crisis. Who gets the blame for this crisis? Not the bulls, who were responsible for the bubble and the various frauds and manipulations perpetrated to keep shares high, while cashing in their profits.
I think the above answers the question, the real economy is gone. Everything, including services can be done abroad or in-shored into cheaper markets (see N Carolina, Texas, etc). Thus, this mile high RE market, Boston to DC or San Fran to LA/SD, is simply not sustainable w/o a lot of foreign investors catching the knife in these post-bubble years.
Last week more than a handful of subscribers alerted me to Jim Rickards’ beliefthat China has pegged the SDR (an IMF reserve currency) Gold price from 850-950 SDR/oz and this is what is impacting the Gold price. Rickards writes that the peg is too cheap given the scarce supply of Gold and that the IMF will print trillions of SDRs during the next global financial crisis. Read More
Myriad changes to the financial structure have seemingly safeguarded the financial system from another 2008-style crisis. The big Wall Street financial institutions are these days better capitalized than a decade ago. There are "living wills," along with various regulatory constraints that have limited the most egregious lending and leveraging mistakes that brought down Bear Stearns, Lehman and others. There are central bank swap lines and such, the type of financial structures that breed optimism. Read More
When TBTFs are allowed to mark to market their securitized assets, they have little to no incentive to liquidate other non-performing assets on their books, including underwater mortgages, notes, etc. Banks are in no rush to offload inventory, as that would simply cause another panic out of their SIVs. And so long as FASB allows mark to model, they will continue to leak out shadow inventory. Sorry, but I don’t buy your premise on iota.

What bothers me is the wholesale move in our nation/economy in the US, and particularly CA and probably the Left Coast in general, is toward the license-and-rent economy, which at bottom is serfdom. In this system you rent your very right to exist. Not only do you have to pay for the basic sustenances of food and housing, but also water, and quiet, and movement necessary to do your job to get your cash to pay for everything you can no longer make yourself. You buy your house, then forever have to rent a place to put it from your municipality/county, just like at a trailer park. Ownership? Good heavens, all you own, someday, maybe, is the title to what sits atop the soil.
One famed investor who has explored this question is “Bond King” Jeffrey Gundlach. The man needs no introduction, but I’ll give him one anyway. Jeffrey is the CEO of DoubleLine Capital, where he manages $116 billion—and has a stellar track record. Jeffrey has outperformed 92% of his peers over the last five years. His flagship DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund (DBLTX) has also outperformed its benchmark by a wide margin over the same period.
For me, this is the most important part of George’s new economics. The entrepreneur must know that if his product or service succeeds at the market, it won’t be regulated out of existence. And the profits will not be taxed away. If he doesn’t have that assurance, the likelihood of turning his idea into a product or service is greatly diminished. That results in less entrepreneurial creations, which means less knowledge and wealth in the economy.
After a little bit of a lull, the international currency crisis is back with a vengeance.  Currencies are collapsing in Argentina, Brazil, India, Turkey and other emerging markets, and central banks are springing into action.  It is being hoped that the financial chaos can be confined to emerging markets so that it will not spread to the United States and Europe.  But of course the global financial system is more interconnected today than ever before, and a massive wave of debt defaults in emerging markets would inevitably have extremely serious consequences all over the planet. Read More

Lady Amelia has a tattoo of three bear cubs to honor her siblings, according to a profile in W magazine. — Kate Storey, Town & Country, "Who Is the 'Most Beautiful Royal,' Lady Amelia Windsor?," 24 Aug. 2018 The last reported bear attack in Yellowstone was in 2015, according to the National Park Service. — Stephen Sorace, Fox News, "Bear attacks, injures 10-year-old boy at Yellowstone National Park," 24 Aug. 2018 Authorities want to remind people that bears are wild animals and cornering them can be dangerous. — Kayla Fitzgerald, sacbee, "Bear crawls out from under house in King's Beach," 6 July 2018 Chinese equities have plunged into bear-market territory. — The Economist, "As its trade tussle with America heats up, China is on the back foot," 5 July 2018 For the past three years, Judge Cindy Lederman has walked by a half-dozen statues of playful bear cubs every day on her way up to her high-ceilinged, top-floor office looking out toward Miami's waterfront. — Adiel Kaplan, miamiherald, "She struck down gay adoption ban and handled notorious juvenile cases. Now she's retiring.," 3 July 2018 The trooper watched the bear walk through the neighborhood but then lost sight of it. — Christine Dempsey, courant.com, "Bold Burglar – A Bear — Binges On Barkhamsted House’s Food," 29 June 2018 But scientists believe the bears once had a much greater range, roaming through southern China, Vietnam and Myanmar. — Brigit Katz, Smithsonian, "This Ancient Panda Skull Belongs to a Previously Unknown Lineage," 20 June 2018 Many steps can be taken to avoid a bear attack, according to the U.S. Forest Service. — Lindsay Kimble, PEOPLE.com, "Summer Has Arrived — Here's How to Avoid Flesh-Eating Bacteria & More Warm Weather Health Hazards," 5 June 2018
The fundamental drivers for Gold and the US Dollar are similar and that is why they typically trend together. Negative and/or falling real rates drive Gold and the same drives the greenback though with respect to differentials between the other competing currencies. When real rates are rising or strong in the US that is bearish for Gold and bullish for the US Dollar. The opposite is also true. And with the US Dollar being the global reserve currency, it naturally competes with Gold, which is an alternative. All being said, history as well as recent action suggests that weakness in the stock market is more crucial to Gold’s future than weakness in the US Dollar.  Read More
We, therefore, the Representatives of the united States of America, in General Congress, Assembled, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, do, in the Name, and by Authority of the good People of these Colonies, solemnly publish and declare, That these United Colonies are, and of Right ought to be Free and Independent States; that they are Absolved from all Allegiance to the British Crown, and that all political connection between them and the State of Great Britain, is and ought to be totally dissolved; and that as Free and Independent States, they have full Power to levy War, conclude Peace, contract Alliances, establish Commerce, and to do all other Acts and Things which Independent States may of right do. Read More
The “curse of the seventh year” refers to how, in recent decades, Octobers in years ending with seven (1987, 1997, and 2007) have been negative for markets. The pre-financial crisis bull market ended this month 10 years ago, while the Dow dropped more than 12% over October 1997. “Black Monday,” which still stands as the biggest single-day percentage decline on record, occurred in October 1987.

No, it is invariably the bears who are blamed for the post-bubble crises and are the main objects of anti- speculative legislation. Yet during the bubble periods it is the bears who are generally the lone voice of reason, warning people of the folly of investing in overpriced markets. In the aftermath of a bubble, they continue their forensic work of exposing unsound securities and bringing prices back in line with intrinsic values, a point which must be reached before the recovery can start.

RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/Surrendered Rest of Post-Election Gains in One DayAs I thought, it didn't take long for the markets to surrender all of the post-election gains. The Dow Jones today was down 602 points, so we've already lost it. It took one day. On my podcast on Friday I said ...…
Stocks with relatively low debt and lower P/E ratios are Corning Inc. (NYSE: GLW), Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (NASDAQ: BBBY), American Express (NYSE: AXP), Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS), Whirlpool Corp. (NYSE: WHR), PVH Corp. (NYSE: PVH), and CVS Corp. (NYSE: CVS). However, the average P/E ratio of this list is still at 13 which implies just a 7% long term return. For those who want more, the best thing to do is to look for special situations and emerging markets.
Unlike new issue stocks that are brought to market with price restrictions until the deal is sold, most municipal bonds are free to trade at any time once they are purchased by the investor. Professional traders regularly trade and re-trade the same bonds several times a week. A feature of this market is a larger proportion of smaller retail investors compared to other sectors of the U.S. securities markets. Some municipal bonds, often with higher risk credits, are issued subject to transfer restrictions.

It is a false premise that you can know when you’re in a bear market. Market observers are fond of looking at a downward sloping historical stock index chart and saying “the market is going down” or “we are in a bear market.” The truth is, the only thing you can say with certainty is that the market has gone down and perhaps we were in a bear market. Where it is going next or whether we are in a bear market is anyone’s guess.
Wouldn’t the monitoring of others only be allowed when they were interacting with Carter Page? Great question. Any individual Page was communicating with, ANY, would then be caught up in the analysts mapping of said associates of the target, in this case Carter Page. Once the mapping is complete, I’m thinking, whomever the intel agent in charge of the operation would then narrow the surveillance down to something more manageable.
Purchasers of municipal bonds should be aware that not all municipal bonds are tax-exempt, and not all tax-exempt bonds are exempt from all federal and state taxes. The laws governing the taxability of municipal bond income are complex. At the federal level they are contained in the IRS Code (Sections 103, 141-150), and rules promulgated thereunder. Additionally, special rules apply to certain types of investors (e.g., financial institution and property and casualty insurance companies) or in certain situations. For example, there is no IRS Code exemption for capital or other gains received from the sale of a municipal bonds and special rules apply for secondary market discount and original issue discount on municipal bonds. Each state will have its own laws governing what bonds, if any, are exempt from state taxes. For publicly offered bonds and most private placements, at the time of issuance a legal opinion will be provided indicating that the interest bonds are tax-exempt; these opinions do not customarily address collateral tax treatment. Offering documents, such as an official statement or placement memorandum, will contain further information regarding tax treatment of interest on the bonds. Investors should be aware that there are also post-issuance compliance requirements that must be met to ensure that the bonds remain tax-exempt. The IRS has a specific section of their website, www.irs.gov, devoted to tax exempt bonds and compliance with federal requirements.
[After the crash] stocks continued to fall, until by the summer of 1932, the Dow Jones reached a floor of 41.88, nearly 90% off its 1929 peak. By this date, the country’s national income had shrunk by 60% and one third of the non-agricultural workforce was unemployed. President Herbert Hoover, who came to office in early 1929 promising that “the end of poverty was in sight,” faced an uphill task in the forthcoming election. America needed a scapegoat.
A common refrain was a preference for non-US assets, particularly in equities given the run-up in American stocks and the earlier stage of economic recovery in Europe. The Fed could exit from its days of stimulus too fast, choking off the economic recovery and crimping profit growth. A few worried about the possibility for an inverted US yield curve when short-term rates rise above long-term levels, which sometimes are seen as a precursor to a recession.
I would contest a little bit, Erik, the idea that we have not been monetizing the debt. The Fed, of course, has been monetized. It’s buying federal securities with credit that did not exist before the Fed tapped the relevant numbers on its computer keypad. The Fed has come to own substantial portions both of mortgage-backed securities and of Treasuries securities outstandings.
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