Food programs are widely considered welfare to the people using them. In fact they are welfare to the food industry: it is a direct transfer of government (tax) bling to the pockets of General Mills, General Foods, Cargill, ADM, Monsanto, and the other Big Food/Big Pharma companies. It is tax bling to the grocers as well. These companies can keep marking up food for profit, squeezing those who pay money for it AND pay taxes so those who can’t afford the food can give Munchy Bucks to their local food vendor, and those dollars are credited to the food industry.
In the last BullBear Market Report we took an in depth look at the very long term index charts and considered the possibility that a secular market shift could be approaching.  This examination was prompted by the parabolic action in the major US market indices, Dow Jones 30 and S&P 500, from November 2016 through January 2018.  During that parabolic run, upper trendline resistance was continually broken while lower trendlines increased their angles of ascent following each minor pullback.  On the Dow monthly and quarterly charts, the major long term trend channels going back to the  1932 or 1949 market price lows were either breached to the upside or nearly approached from below, depending on the charting of the channel.  Investor expectations ran hot in anticipation of the tax reform bill and even hotter after it was enacted.  The Dow ran nearly 50% higher and SPX leapt almost 40% in that time and was followed, as parabolic runs always are, with a dramatic collapse in February of this year.    Since all of this occurred in the context of a very long term Elliott Wave (V) count (the fifth wave of a move considered to be its final), it seemed appropriate to crack open the discussion on the potential for an eventual (though not immediate) epic bear market turn. Price and technical action since that time has continued to beg the question, and a current consideration of the technical evidence would, on balance, lead to the conclusion that the current bull market is in its latter stages.  Given that the setup is for an either long term bear market (correcting the bull market that began in 2011) or very long term bear market (correcting the entire secular period from 1949), it's more likely that the topping process has only just begun and that the bull wave has yet to fully complete.  Having said that, the probability is that upside will be relatively limited and that any further rallies will be subjected to selling distribution on an ongoing basis.  The charts tend to suggest that bull market conditions may drag out another 10-24 months before shifting into a bear market. Supporting these conclusions are significant developments in other areas of the financial markets and the domestic and global economies, including:
Our US Regime Model, a quantitative framework for stock-picking, suggests we are in the mid to late stages of the market cycle and in this stage, momentum is the best way to invest. As contrarian value investors, this is not an easy call to make. But if this bull market is closer to over, our analysis of factor returns indicates that late-stage bull markets have been dominated by stocks with strong price momentum and growth, while value, analyst neglect, and dividend yield have been the worst-performing factors.
I remember when America was a free country. You could get on an airliner without an ID. Driving licenses didn’t even have photos. If a friend was coming through your city on a flight and had a few hours layover, you could meet them inside the airport for lunch or dinner. You could meet friends, children, and relatives at the gate or see them off at the gate. Parents could actually put children on the plane and grandparents could take them off.

How is today's CAPE impacted by the oversized contribution of the large tech firms to the index? Is there merit in excluding the FAANG companies from the measure to determine a more traditional measure. With the exception of Alphabet and Apple, the other of the large tech companies would have very lofty valuations with very little historical earnings and thus would attract astronomical CAPE ratios; and given their relative size, would have a disproportionate impact on the overall CAPE measure. I guess the question is whether the CAPE measure is appropriate given the composition of the index these days, or whether the actual valuations for these companies is appropriate. Would be interested in others' views on this.
I think the bottom line is that the hot market is Trump Bashing stories. Pursuing a story that might vindicate him or show him to be the victim of an abusive Obama Administration would bring down the thunder of the entire Left and it would mean basically having to admit that they’ve been butt kissing enablers for the past 2 presidential terms, and that their defenses of Obama and Hillary were really just the soft bigotry of lowered expectations because they were so focused on ‘first woman’ and ‘first black man’ without bothering to listen to what either of them actually said. The cognitive dissonance would then cause the entire left side of the political spectrum of the US to collapse under it’s own weight. Think Inception.
Panic of 1901 Panic of 1907 Depression of 1920–21 Wall Street Crash of 1929 Recession of 1937–38 1971 Brazilian markets crash 1973–74 stock market crash Souk Al-Manakh stock market crash (1982) Japanese asset price bubble (1986–1991) Black Monday (1987) Rio de Janeiro Stock Exchange collapse Friday the 13th mini-crash (1989) 1990s Japanese stock market crash Dot-com bubble (1995–2000) 1997 Asian financial crisis October 27, 1997, mini-crash 1998 Russian financial crisis
Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Federal Home Loan Banks Federal Housing Administration Federal Housing Finance Agency Federal Housing Finance Board Federal Reserve System Government National Mortgage Association Irish Bank Resolution Corporation National Asset Management Agency Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight Office of Financial Stability UK Financial Investments
I think the bottom line is that the hot market is Trump Bashing stories. Pursuing a story that might vindicate him or show him to be the victim of an abusive Obama Administration would bring down the thunder of the entire Left and it would mean basically having to admit that they’ve been butt kissing enablers for the past 2 presidential terms, and that their defenses of Obama and Hillary were really just the soft bigotry of lowered expectations because they were so focused on ‘first woman’ and ‘first black man’ without bothering to listen to what either of them actually said. The cognitive dissonance would then cause the entire left side of the political spectrum of the US to collapse under it’s own weight. Think Inception.

The Gilt index is an important benchmark for most UK fixed income investors, whatever their risk appetite.  2017 was a year of modest returns (+2% for the iBoxx Gilt index) but the fact is that we are now well into a bear market which will last for many years.  As at 11th January an investor in the 10 year Gilt index has suffered a period of losses of 370 days since the last peak in August 2016.  That is already one of longest recovery periods in the last 40 years or so.  In other words, the Gilt index has been in a drawdown phase for about 16 months.  Most investors will not have noticed because the equity market has soared over the same period and in any case a drawdown of 4% below the peak doesn’t sound like a lot.  But when the asset in question yields just 1.6%, it will take over 2 years to get back to those highs, unless we see another period of falling yields and rising prices.


Dan Caplinger has been a contract writer for the Motley Fool since 2006. As the Fool's Director of Investment Planning, Dan oversees much of the personal-finance and investment-planning content published daily on Fool.com. With a background as an estate-planning attorney and independent financial consultant, Dan's articles are based on more than 20 years of experience from all angles of the financial world. Follow @DanCaplinger
“Excess liquidity usually leads to the misallocation of capital, masking any balance sheet constrains. As this tide of excess liquidity recedes, it reveals the misallocation of capital and the mispricing of risk,” Nedbank CIB strategists Neels Heyneke and Mehul Daya write in a note. And this is particularly the case for excess dollar-liquidity in the Emerging Markets (EMs).

Our family would like to thank you for Heath’s recent financial aid award letter. However, we are very concerned with the results. Our expected family contribution dropped from $20,365 in 2016-17 to $6,987 for the 2017-18 school year, yet the award package left us with an additional need of over $8,500. The reduction in this year’s EFC is due to a reduction in assets, plus the fact that we will be sending two students to college during the 2017-2018 year. In spite of these changes, however, the amount of the current award is essentially the same as the award for 2016-17.


It is difficult to find the words to describe just how serious America’s trade war with China is becoming.  As you will see below, the two largest economies on the entire planet are on a self-destructive course that almost seems irreversible at this point.  The only way that this trade war is going to come to a rapid conclusion is if one side is willing to totally submit and accept an extremely bitter and humiliating defeat on the global stage, and that is not likely to happen.  Read More

A great example of what we can expect can be taken from Japan. In 1989, the Japanese stock market index (Nikkei) was at 38,916 points with a P/E ratio of 60. This is almost double the valuation of the S&P 500, but if we apply the S&P 500’s current P/E ratio of 26.14 to the Nikkei in 1989 it would be at 16,954 points. Fast forward almost 30 years and the Nikkei is at 18,331 points for an imaginary total return of 8% if equal the current S&P 500 P/E ratio.


High unemployment and high inflation will have negative impact on home prices IMO – it is coming. Will the fed fight Stagflation like Paul Volker fed did with high fed fund rates? Will supply and demand market forces wrest the shadow inventory from the bankers in the next 5 years or will the supply chain remained clogged with squatters and inflated balance sheets?


Dick Meyer of NPR believes that "the idea of blaming one person for the downfall of the economy with a gross domestic product of about $14 trillion, powered by 300 million people and engaged in complex global commerce is nuts — whether that person is Bush, Obama, Alan Greenspan, Bernard Madoff, Osama bin Laden or the editors of opinions at The Wall Street Journal."[14]
There is perhaps no better illustration of the deep decay of the American political system than the Senate race in New Jersey. Sen. Bob Menendez, running for re-election, was censured by the Senate Ethics Committee for accepting bribes from the Florida businessman Salomon Melgen, who was convicted in 2017 of defrauding Medicare of $73 million. The senator had flown to the Dominican Republic with Melgen on the physician’s private jet and stayed in his private villa, where the men cavorted with young Dominican women who allegedly were prostitutes. Menendez performed numerous political favors for Melgen, including helping some of the Dominican women acquire visas to the United States. Menendez was indicted in a federal corruption trial but escaped sentencing because of a hung jury. Read More
JOIN PETER at the New Orleans Investment Conferencehttps://neworleansconference.com/conference-schedule/A Very Volatile and Technically Weak Trading Day for the DowHere I am for the third day in a row doing a podcast. It's market volatility that has brought me to the mic yet again. The Dow Jones down 525 points; a very volatile and technically ...…

Still, there are a lot of unknowns. Would millions of Americans switching from urban to rural living ignite a baby boom and cure our demographic problems? It’s certainly not out of the question. After all, birthrates are substantially higher in rural areas. Plus, families could dramatically reduce their cost of living by moving out of cities, allowing them to feed more mouths.


For the past few weeks, I’ve been intensely focused on what I believe to be a double cross in COMEX gold futures by JPMorgan of other trading entities, particularly other commercial participants. I would define the double cross as JPMorgan positioning itself so flawlessly so as to be nearly perfect in its execution, including the avoidance of any widespread knowledge of what has occurred. After all, a double cross always includes the element of surprise and this one promises to be a doozy. Read More


These also include companies that service the needs of businesses and consumers, such as food businesses (people still eat when the economy is in a downturn) and companies that sell basic consumer goods (people still need to buy toothpaste and toilet paper). In this same vein, it is the riskier companies, such as small growth companies, that are typically avoided because they are less likely to have the financial security that is required to survive downturns.
As the bull market of the 1990s has turned into the bear market of the (early) 2000s, households have sharply reversed their more than decade-long trend of increasing their share of assets held in stocks. On balance, households have reallocated their assets away from stocks and toward tangible real assets, such as housing and other durable goods, as well as toward safe liquid financial assets, including cash, bank deposits, and money market mutual funds.
Once a municipal advisor and bond counsel have been established, they will work together to identify an underwriter that will manage the distribution of the bonds. The underwriter is a broker-dealer that publicly administers the issuance and distributes the bonds. As such, they serve as the bridge between the buy and sell side of the bond issuance process. Underwriters connect issuers with potential bond buyers, and determine the price at which to offer the bonds. In doing so, most underwriters will assume full risk and responsibility for the distribution and sale of the bonds issued by the issuing agency. As such, underwriters play a central role in deciding the return and span of maturities, typically collect fees in exchange for their services. If the price is wrong, the underwriter is left holding the bonds.
Years after the Civil War, significant local debt was issued to build railroads. Railroads were private corporations and these bonds were very similar to today's industrial revenue bonds. Construction costs in 1873 for one of the largest transcontinental railroads, the Northern Pacific, closed down access to new capital.[5] Around the same time, the largest bank of the country of the time, which was owned by the same investor as that of Northern Pacific, collapsed. Smaller firms followed suit as well as the stock market. The 1873 panic and years of depression that followed put an abrupt but temporary halt to the rapid growth of municipal debt.[6] Responding to widespread defaults that jolted the municipal bond market of the day, new state statutes were passed that restricted the issuance of local debt. Several states wrote these restrictions into their constitutions. Railroad bonds and their legality were widely challenged, and this gave rise to the market-wide demand that an opinion of qualified bond counsel accompany each new issue.
In the average correction, the market fully recovered its value within an average of 10 months, according to Azzad Asset Management. The average bear market lasts for 15 months, with stocks declining 32 percent. The most recent bear market lasted 17 months, from October 2007 to March 2009, and shaved 54 percent off of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Sep. 6, 2018 2:03 AM ET| Includes: BIBL, BXUB, BXUC, CHGX, CRF, DDM, DIA, DMRL, DOG, DUSA, DXD, EDOW, EEH, EPS, EQL, EQWS, ESGL, FEX, FWDD, GSEW, HUSV, IVV, IWL, IWM, JHML, JKD, OMFS, OTPIX, PMOM, PPLC, PSQ, QID-OLD, QLD, QQEW, QQQ, QQQE, QQXT, RSP, RVRS, RWM, RYARX, RYRSX, SCAP, SCHX, SDOW, SDS, SFLA, SH, SMLL, SPDN, SPLX, SPSM, SPUU, SPXE, SPXL, SPXN, SPXS, SPXT, SPXU-OLD, SPXV, SPY, SQQQ, SRTY, SSO, SYE, TNA, TQQQ, TWM, TZA, UDOW, UDPIX, UPRO, URTY, USA, USMC, USSD, USWD, UWM, VFINX, VOO, VTWO, VV, ZF
The entire defense sector reports this week. At least the big guys do. Margin compression and the potential for lost contracts weigh heavy on these stocks right now. This is one area where I will be slow to withdraw amid weakness. Domestic and allied monies intended for this space will not draw down in a Cold War environment. Lockheed Martin (LMT) reports this morning. The numbers should be good. However, the firm has a number of deals in place with Saudi Arabia. My plan is to wait for the call before doing anything stupid. Boeing (BA) , General Dynamics (GD) , and Northrop Grumman (NOC) all report tomorrow morning, while Raytheon (RTN) will go to the tape on Thursday morning.
Exactly one month ago, just as the S&P hit all time high, Bank of America caused a stir when it announced that one of its proprietary "guaranteed bear market" indicators created by the Bank of America quants was just triggered. As we said at the time, what was remarkable about this particular indicator is that it predicted not only the size of the upcoming drop (-12% on average) but also the timing (over the coming three months). Also notable: its uncanny accuracy: it was correct on 11 out of 11 previous occasions after it was triggered.
Dow Ending a Down Week on a Positive NoteThe Dow managed to finish a down week on a positive note; the Dow Jones was up about 55 points - 24,270-ish is where we closed. Although intra-day, we were up better than 250 points, so most fo the losses came toward the end of the day, as the Dow was not able to hold on to all those gains. It held on to ...…
The sneaky thing about Amazon’s increased dominance in so many key aspects of our lives is that much of the perniciousness is hidden. No one’s going to tell you about all the retailers who have gotten pressured or destroyed via its tactics while you’re happily clicking “add to cart” and smiling about 2-day free shipping. In this sense, it can be best compared to the evils of factory farming. Most people just simply have no idea about the immense damage going on behind the scenes as they indulge in incredible convenience and what looks like a good deal.
Murphy also included the District of Columbia in his research, and found it had a psychopathy level far higher than any other state. But this finding is an outlier, as Murphy notes, as it’s an entirely urban area and cannot be fairly compared with larger, more geographically diverse, US states. That said, as Murphy notes, “The presence of psychopaths in District of Columbia is consistent with the conjecture found in Murphy (2016) that psychopaths are likely to be effective in the political sphere.”
Jim:      Well, Jay Powell has one commanding credential. And that credential is the absence of a PhD in economics on his resume. I say this because we have been under the thumb of the Doctors of Economics who have been conducting a policy of academic improv. They have set rates according to models which have been all too fallible. They lack of historical knowledge and, indeed, they lack the humility that comes from having been in markets and having been knocked around by Mr. Market (who you know is a very tough hombre).
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