In 2007, John Del Vecchio managed a short only portfolio for Ranger Alternatives, L.P. which was later converted into the AdvisorShares Ranger Equity Bear ETF in 2011. Mr. Del Vecchio also launched an earnings quality index used for the Forensic Accounting ETF. He is the co-author of What's Behind the Numbers? A Guide to Exposing Financial Chicanery and Avoiding Huge Losses in Your Portfolio. Previously, he worked for renowned forensic accountant Dr. Howard Schilit, as well as short seller David Tice.
Older investors who need cash returns like dividends should mostly sit tight, or shift asset mixes more toward U.S. stocks, since the U.S. has the world's most fundamentally strong and stable economy right now. U.S. company dividends are not in apparent danger. But older investors tempted to try to snag some Apple or Facebook on the cheap might want to wait for clearer signs of stabilization before trying to make an opportunity of the sell-off.

Goldberg said that investors who continue to hold longer-term bonds should expect fluctuations and, if they look closely at statement this year, losses in the bond holdings. But it's not a reason to sell. And most retail investors aren't in bonds for the total return (i.e., performance) anyway. But they do need to understand that the market mechanics are much stronger for stocks than bonds now.


In 2008, gold was taken from $1020 to $700 and silver was pounded from $21 to  $7 during the period of time that Bear Stearns, Lehman and the U.S. financial system was collapsing.  The precious metals were behaving inversely to what would have been expected as the global financial system melted down.   Massive Central Bank intervention was at play.
In spite of not normally looking back, I have had a look at a Newsletter that I wrote in July 2009 when gold was just over $900 and the Dow 9,100. It was called “The Dark Years are here” and received quite a lot of attention at the time. This was at the end of the sub-prime crisis when the Dow had just declined by 60% and gold had risen from $250 in 1999 to $925. Read More
The Peerless Stock Market Timing system of automatic trading that I use has given what I call a “near Sell S9”. The “Peerless Sell S9” I invented has a pretty amazing track record. Here are recent examples. But there were many more in earlier years. October 1987 July 1990 July 1998 January 2000 February 2001 May 2002 July 2007 December 2007 March 2008 May 2008

The causes and characteristics of bear markets vary, but most financial theorists agree that economic cycles and investor sentiment both play a role in the creation and momentum of bear markets. In general, a weak or weakening economy -- indicated by low employment, low disposable income, and declining business profits -- ushers in a bear market. The existence of several new trading lows for well-known companies might also indicate that a bear market is occurring. It is important to note that government involvement affects bear markets. Changes in the federal funds rate or in various tax rates can encourage economic expansion or contraction, ultimately leading to bull or bear markets.
I often say that every great thinker has one “big idea.” George’s information theory of economics certainly qualifies as one of those. You’ve likely heard me mention how important exposing yourself to these big, powerful ideas is. Well, that’s exactly what I aim to do with my Strategic Investment Conference. I have invited George to speak at the SIC 2018 in San Diego, this coming March.
The shares slumped -6.88% after dropping as much as -10% at the lows after the company’s CEO, in an interview with CNBC yesterday, failed to reassure market fears about a weakening financial position. The CEO suggested that the company will now urgently sell assets to address leverage and its precarious liquidity situation whereby it will have to rely on revolvers - and the generosity of its banks - now that it is locked out of the commercial paper market. Read More
Already rising for two weeks, following the Geithner announcement the DJIA had its fifth-biggest one-day point gain in history.[40] "Tim Geithner went from zero to hero in a matter of just a few days" and reported that Bank of America stock led banking stocks with 38% one-day gains.[41] On March 26, 2009, after just short of three weeks of gains which frequently defied the day's bad economic news, the DJIA rebounded to 7924.56. A rise of 21% from the previous low, this met the technical requirements to be considered a bull market.[42] A Wall Street Journal article declared, "Stocks are on their strongest run since the bear market started a year and a half ago as investors continue to debate whether the economy and the markets have finally stabilized".[43] Bloomberg noted the Obama administration's successes included the sale of $24 billion worth of seven-year Treasury notes and pointed out that March 2009 was the best month for the S&P 500 since 1974.[44]
The Peerless Stock Market Timing system of automatic trading that I use has given what I call a “near Sell S9”. The “Peerless Sell S9” I invented has a pretty amazing track record. Here are recent examples. But there were many more in earlier years. October 1987 July 1990 July 1998 January 2000 February 2001 May 2002 July 2007 December 2007 March 2008 May 2008

Developed by Eduardo Mirahyes, founder of Exceptional Bear, over 28 years of hands-on experience, post completion of the Elliott Wave Advanced Tutorial. History repeats itself nowhere more often than in the Market. The essence of "Elliott" is pattern recognition, to understand the underlying herding psychology, to enable forecasting with a high degree of certainty, rather than herding madness of crowds, to minimize emotion and fear.   
Let's spin the time machine back to the late Middle Ages, at the height of feudalism, and imagine we're trying to get a boatload of goods to the nearest city to sell. As we drift down the river, we're constantly being stopped and charged a fee for transiting one small fiefdom after another. When we finally reach the city, there's an entry fee for bringing our goods to market. Read More
The second important institutional change is the growth in the mutual fund industry since the mid-1980s, which resulted from the changes in the retirement plans as well as from the individual small investor’s demand for an inexpensive means of acquiring a diversified investment in the capital markets. Households’ investment in stock and bond mutual funds (not including those held indirectly through pension funds) grew from about 1% of total financial assets in 1984 to 9% in 2002. To be sure, with the increased prominence of pension funds and stock and bond mutual funds, direct holdings of stocks and bonds as a share of financial assets has declined from about 37% in 1960 to 22% in 2002. Nevertheless, the potential cost advantage and portfolio diversification available through financial intermediaries facilitates household investment in stocks and bonds. Therefore, the availability of pension and mutual funds should tend to work in consort with the underlying economic fundamentals affecting households’ demand for stocks going forward.

The timing of any credit crisis is set by the rate at which the credit cycle progresses. People don’t think in terms of the credit cycle, wrongly believing it is a business cycle. The distinction is important, because a business cycle by its name suggests it emanates from business. In other words, the cycle of growth and recessions is due to instability in the private sector and this is generally believed by state planners and central bankers.
In the following Nasdaq chart, as seen through the Powershares QQQ Trust QQQ, +2.32%  you can recognize that market is much earlier in the process of a correction, but has begun nonetheless. The data here only goes as far back as 1997, so it is possible that the Nasdaq does retest its highs before continuing down. That's not a risk I am generally taking. In looking at the risk range, we see that the Nasdaq could be in line for another 40% to 50% correction. Again, I don't think that is the likeliest outcome, but it is possible. I do expect a significant correction and if I had to pick a number, I'd say about 30% off of its top.

In this article I point to the pressures on the Fed to moderate monetary policy, but that will only affect the timing of the next cyclical credit crisis. That is going to happen anyway, triggered by the Fed or even a foreign central bank. In the very short term, a tendency to moderate monetary policy might allow the gold price to recover from its recent battering.
Many BullionStar customers are already be familiar with using Bitcoin when buying and selling gold, silver and platinum bars and coins, as BullionStar has been accepting Bitcoin as a form of payment since May 2014. BullionStar was one of the first bullion dealers worldwide to offer customers the ability to buy and sell physical precious metals using Bitcoin. Now with the addition of Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash and Litecoin, BullionStar is again one of the first bullion dealers in the world to offer customers the ability to transact in these other leading cryptocurrencies for both buy and sell orders.Read More
Exceptional Bear's guidance is an optimal tool to capably oversee the investment decisions of outside managers.  Once you understand this Market, facilitated by candle charts in color, represent market history, the wrong asset classes, become readily evident. By subscribing to Exceptional Bear,you'll be learning invaluable investment skills, which will allow you to "get it" on a deep level. The foundation of our methodology is the most advanced and refined version of RN Elliott's legacy - New-Wave Elliott™.  

Swiss-born Marc Faber, now a resident in Thailand, holds a PhD in economics and is an investment advisor and fund manager through his firm, Marc Faber Ltd. He also writes a monthly investment newsletter, "The Gloom, Boom and Doom Report." As Money notes, Faber is consistently bearish, and frequently is called "Dr. Doom." He sees two big red flags right now.
After a little bit of a lull, the international currency crisis is back with a vengeance.  Currencies are collapsing in Argentina, Brazil, India, Turkey and other emerging markets, and central banks are springing into action.  It is being hoped that the financial chaos can be confined to emerging markets so that it will not spread to the United States and Europe.  But of course the global financial system is more interconnected today than ever before, and a massive wave of debt defaults in emerging markets would inevitably have extremely serious consequences all over the planet. Read More
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A bear market rally is a trend that tends to trick investors into thinking the bull market is on the rise again -- but is, in fact, an upward trend where the stock market posts gains for a couple days or weeks but drops again. There may be several bear market rallies within a regular bear market, but an upward trend can't be considered a bull market until market prices rise 20% or more. 
Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN - Free Report) engages in the retail sale of consumer products and subscriptions in North America and internationally. The company has a Zacks Rank #2. In the last 60 days, 19 earnings estimates moved up, while none moved down for the current year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings soared 39.3% in the same period. The company’s expected earnings growth rate for the current quarter and year is 526.9% and 290.8%, respectively.
The Peerless Stock Market Timing system of automatic trading that I use has given what I call a “near Sell S9”. The “Peerless Sell S9” I invented has a pretty amazing track record. Here are recent examples. But there were many more in earlier years. October 1987 July 1990 July 1998 January 2000 February 2001 May 2002 July 2007 December 2007 March 2008 May 2008

The best advice I can give is to determine your proper asset allocation, which is one that properly balances your tolerance for risk with your long-term objectives. Stick with it through the good times and bad, and be sure to rebalance periodically if your portfolio drifts significantly from your target asset allocation. If you tend to react to bear markets (after the fact, by definition) by selling stocks, then you should consider hiring a financial advisor whose coaching can help you avoid these actions—they are detrimental to your long-term financial well-being.
“The economic fundamentals remain favorable,” said Bruce Bittles, Robert W. Baird’s chief investment strategist, after Wednesday’s sell-off. Bittles was also cautious on stocks ahead of the current rout. “Given the strength in the labor markets and confidence levels among small businesses, the odds of a business turndown are unlikely. We remain bullish on the U.S. economy.”
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebookhttps://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/Dovish Speech Given by Jerome PowellThe catalyst for the rise in gold and the decline in the dollar, I believe, was the dovish speech given by Jerome Powell today in Jackson Hole. Whether or not the speech is perceived as dovishly as I believe it is, I think we ...…

Having read Crash Proof and many other "Dollar is Doomed" books ..this give a great current synopsis on the happening events ... it is weird to read/hear Mr Schiff and is bolf predictions somehow come true. Even though flight to quality in the 'dollar' has hurt many of Mr. Schiffs investments ('currently') .. his insight on the future for our American way of life makes the book a must read.

So…do your homework before making a move in the stock market. Many of the companies (like HAS, STZ, JNJ, AAPL, DIS…and many others) are perfectly priced. But, if you’re looking for growth (and have the stomach for some volatility)… NVDA, PAYC, AMZN, NFLX, SHOP are worth the gamble (although I’m personally waiting for some of those stocks to find a RSI bottom, from panic sellers or simply a pullback, before buying more). btw: After years of retail being oversold…M and KSS may be ready for a comeback (another two stocks on my current watch-list that I would have avoided five years ago.) This market can be a wonderful buying opportunity if you do your homework regarding a company’s fundamentals and wait for the RSI to reach oversold territory. (I usually watch for the start of the bounce back to be certain).
The central bank and investment banks have the power to crash the market right before the midterm elections to influence voting. I have seen this pattern repeated with both Ronald Reagan and George Bush, and we could be seeing it repeating once again for Donald Trump. The Fed and its dealer banks battle against Republican administrations, especially when they hold both houses of Congress, too.
Here’s a scarier thought: At least 10 of the 11 FISA judges were appointed by OVomit. Recall, if you will, the forum shopping that is done in all of the cases against Pres. Trump for something he did or something he didn’t do. The FISA judge(s) may be as activist as the 9th Circuit, so they wouldn’t be concerned at all about the veracity of the pleadings he/she was looking at behind the FISA application. Remember Judge Boasberg, saw nothing wrong with ruling that the Comey memos could not be released to Judicial Watch, et al., even though some have already been leaked “because [the release] might prematurely reveal . . . the nature, scope, direction and focus of its investigations” involving Russia’s interference in the 2016 election”…in other words they’re being used by Mueller in his witch hunt. What I’m saying is THE FISA COURT, the secret court charged with authority to breach any American citizen’s 4th Amendment rights based on no witnesses, just documents, grant FISA approvals based on that documentation that shows probable cause based on the veracity of these documents. So here’s another “the fix is in” to ruin candidate Trump, president-elect Trump & President Trump & this time it is 1 or more OVomit-appointed FISA judges. Another clue: Where the H**ll is the ACLU?
Michael Wilson, the chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley (MS - Free Report) , added that “over the past two months, the U.S. equity market has moved decidedly more defensive and value is showing more persistent performance versus growth.” This move toward defensive sectors and value strategies indicated that the market is concerned about growth fading later this year and next.
Avoiding such a drop would actually mean a break with a loose historical trend where Wall Street suffers “a nasty second-half setback during each of the last 13 years ending in ‘7,’” he wrote in a report. “We think it’s likely stocks will close 2017 at higher levels; therefore any intervening ’Unlucky Sevens’ pattern weakness would need to materialize fairly quickly.”

321gold founder Bob Moriarty has been calling for a broader market crash to occur in October for the last few months. With the turmoil we’ve seen across global markets in the last couple of weeks it looks like Bob’s prognostication is playing out according to script. Energy & Gold caught up with Bob Moriarty at the end of last week to discuss topics ranging from gold & silver mining shares to what’s going on with Novo Resources to the Saudi assassination of Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul. Without further ado here is Energy & Gold’s October 2018 conversation with Bob Moriarty… Read More


This article will focus on the top four precious metals, gold, silver, platinum, and palladium.  Even though Rhodium and other metals are considered precious, the ones listed above take the lion’s share of the investment market.  Furthermore, while platinum and palladium are purchased as investments, they have a much larger industrial component than gold or silver. Read More
“We’re not overly worried about this being the early legs of a large-scale market correction in conjunction with a recession,” Joe Mallen, chief investment officer at Helios Quantitative Research, said Wednesday. “I don’t see anything so dire from an economic data perspective that will create a 20% plus drawdown. I think this is very technical in nature.”
RATE AND REVIEW this podcasthttps://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/What About Employers' Day?Labor Day is coming up on Monday it it annoys me that we just have a Labor Day and we don't have an Entrepreneur Day. We don't have a day to celebrate the employer. Why is that? The entrepreneurs are the unsung heroes of the American economy. I'm ...…

The mirage that we are still in a strong bull market, and not on the brink of a bear one, has more to do with this year’s fast-rising earnings than a sharply falling stock market, which is typically what leads investors to run for safety. The classic definition of a bear market is when a stock market average such as the Dow or the S&P 500 has dropped 20 percent from its highs. But that’s probably not the best one. The more important factor to consider when gauging whether investors are feeling upbeat about stocks, and, by extension, the economy, is what they are willing to pay for the earnings that those companies generate.


Just like a secular bull market, a secular bear market is one that lasts between five and 25 years. And while the average length of a secular bear market is about 17 years, there may be smaller bull or bear markets within it. Still, the average bear market is much shorter -- usually under a year -- and so definitions of what constitutes a secular bear market vary. 
JOIN PETER at the New Orleans Investment Conferencehttps://neworleansconference.com/conference-schedule/Ominous OctoberToday was the end of the month of September; it's also the end of the third quarter we are now beginning the final quarter of the year. When we come back to trading next week, we will be in the month of October, and as I mentio ...…
“Furthermore, in the main, historians educated as Keynesians and monetarists do not understand the economic history of money, let alone the difference between a gold standard and a gold-exchange standard. These similar sounding monetary systems must be defined and the differences between them noted, for anyone to have the slimmest chance of understanding this vital subject, and its relevance to the situation today…
Investing in stock drives the production of better goods and services, but currency isn’t a commodity which will depreciate due to the nature of its own decay. It’s not a service which could lose its public appeal in a few years. Intellectual property is a closer metaphor, but a dollar will still never hold intrinsic value, ironically, unless it is one day viewed as an antique. Read More

It depends on whether they need short-term cash at their disposal. For millennials just getting going on their 401ks, it's probably a good time to boost contributions or shift the mix of funds in retirement accounts to be more aggressive (younger investors should usually be fairly aggressive anyway, since they have decades to recover from short-term bear markets).


Build America Bonds are a taxable municipal bond created under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 that carry special tax credits and federal subsidies for either the bond holder or the bond issuer. Many issuers have taken advantage of the Build America Bond provision to secure financing at a lower cost than issuing traditional tax-exempt bonds. The Build America Bond provision, which expired on January 1, 2011, was open to governmental agencies issuing bonds to fund capital expenditures.[9][10][11]
Research from Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff shows that when a country’s government debt-to-GDP ratio stays over 90% for more than five years, its economy loses around one-third of its growth rate. Lacy also points out that “the longer the debt overhang persists, the relationship between economic growth and debt becomes nonlinear.” This is happening to the US today with the economy growing at only half its long-term growth rate.
Already rising for two weeks, following the Geithner announcement the DJIA had its fifth-biggest one-day point gain in history.[40] "Tim Geithner went from zero to hero in a matter of just a few days" and reported that Bank of America stock led banking stocks with 38% one-day gains.[41] On March 26, 2009, after just short of three weeks of gains which frequently defied the day's bad economic news, the DJIA rebounded to 7924.56. A rise of 21% from the previous low, this met the technical requirements to be considered a bull market.[42] A Wall Street Journal article declared, "Stocks are on their strongest run since the bear market started a year and a half ago as investors continue to debate whether the economy and the markets have finally stabilized".[43] Bloomberg noted the Obama administration's successes included the sale of $24 billion worth of seven-year Treasury notes and pointed out that March 2009 was the best month for the S&P 500 since 1974.[44]

Now the similarities are closely aligned in terms of banking policy.  Our Federal Reserve followed a more aggressive path than Japan in bailing out our large banks.  Yet all this did was make the too big to fail even bigger and exacerbated underlying issues in our economy.  Four full years into the crisis and we are still dealing with a massive amount of shadow inventory.  Remember the initial days when the talk was about working through the backlog of properties in a clean and efficient manner?  Whatever happened to that?  Banks operate through balance sheet accounting and it has made more sense to pretend the shadow inventory has somehow maintained peak prices while chasing other financial bubbles in other sectors.  Not a hard way to make money when you can borrow from the Fed for virtually zero percent.
The biggest of all BIGGER story aspects to the HPSCI Memo, in all coverage, has been overlooked by all Main Stream Media.  The Department of Justice FBI FISA request was for “Title I” surveillance authority.  This is not some innocuous request for metadata exploration – the FBI said American citizen Carter Page was a “foreign agent of a hostile foreign government”; the FBI was calling Carter Page a spy.
       We hope to buy a 2,000 sq., Ft., or larger single story, move in ready, single family residence with Good Bones and plenty of yard ( acres ) with privacy, (no Tracts or busy streets) and must be quiet area. We want to live modestly and without the cost and hassles of Mella Roos, HOAs or the many City ordinances. A ranch or farm land preferred. We hope to move once and to stay for at least 10 to 15 years before we retire, then move out of the area for good.

Research from Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff shows that when a country’s government debt-to-GDP ratio stays over 90% for more than five years, its economy loses around one-third of its growth rate. Lacy also points out that “the longer the debt overhang persists, the relationship between economic growth and debt becomes nonlinear.” This is happening to the US today with the economy growing at only half its long-term growth rate.


But what about your question?  What if the weight of the evidence leans toward the market rolling over into a full-fledged bear market (-20% or more drop in value)?  After all, it happens every 7-10 years and the average market crash is right around -42%.  Who wants to participate in watching their hard-earned retirement portfolio lose almost half its value?!

For the study, researchers from Suranaree University of Technology in Thailand derived the extract of broken bones from the fruit pods of the plant. They looked at the effects of broken bones plant extract on the adipogenic and biomolecular change in 3T3-L1 adipocytes. They used the cell line 3T3-L1 to establish the potential toxic effects of broken bones plantextract during adipogenesis, the differentiation of pre-adipocytes into adipocytes. Read More

Bear markets can occur in any asset class. In stocks, a bear market is measured by the Dow, the S&P 500, and the NASDAQ. In bonds, a bear market could occur in U.S. Treasurys, municipals bonds, or corporate bonds. Bear markets also happen currencies, gold, and commodities such as oil. Price drops in consumer goods, such as computers, automobiles, or TVs, are not bear markets. Instead, that's called deflation.
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