The reason why sticking with a plan is so important is that it lets you invest at low prices, allowing your money to go further by buying more shares. When stocks recover, you'll own more shares and earn particularly strong returns on the investments you made at or near market lows. Capitalizing on those opportunities will have a definite positive impact on your long-term returns -- as long as you have the discipline to pull the trigger when the time comes.
Our US Regime Model, a quantitative framework for stock-picking, suggests we are in the mid to late stages of the market cycle and in this stage, momentum is the best way to invest. As contrarian value investors, this is not an easy call to make. But if this bull market is closer to over, our analysis of factor returns indicates that late-stage bull markets have been dominated by stocks with strong price momentum and growth, while value, analyst neglect, and dividend yield have been the worst-performing factors.
Phew. Ok. So everything above seems completely ridiculous and indicates basically everyone involved – with the exception of Trump, Nunes, and maybe Sessions – are completely and utterly stupid! If this was a Clancy novel, it would at least have a plausible conspiracy! This one is just dumb. Hillary and DNC funded Steele to collude with Russia to MAKE STUFF UP about POTUS Trump and uses a corrupt and clearly bias FBI and DOJ to facilitate the whole thing. You cannot ask for a more stupid plot to this story! It is just bad!
Every college publication on the market states your university meets about 95% of its student’s need, and we have seen award letters sent to high school seniors in our area substantiating this number. We would like to request that Anywhere University reward Heath, a current student with a 3.4 GPA, an award package equal to, or better than, an incoming freshman. It will be financially difficult for us to continue to send Heath to Anywhere University without an increase in financial aid.
The key thing to realize is that the debt cycle plays the main role in the business cycle. When debt and interest rates are low, consumers and businesses start buying and expanding, which results in economic growth. When that goes on for a while and debt and interest rates get too high, consumers and businesses run into problems, which results in recessions and bear markets.
Peter Schiff has been saying for weeks this is a bear market. Well, now even Pres. Trump has said investors may see some short-term pain in the stock market. But the president says it will all be worth it because we will get long-term gain, referring to the benefits we’ll reap when we win the trade war. In his most recent podcast, Peter said that’s not how it’s going to play out. Read More
Leuthold Group chief investment strategist and economist Jim Paulsen was cautious about stocks ahead of the January-February rout. And he remained steadfastly cautious in front of the recent sell-off. He’s made a lot of good market calls like these in the 20-plus years I’ve tracked his work and known him. Now in the current weakness, he’s turning more bullish on stocks.
With the U.S. stock market going through a volatile phase, investing in big-brand companies seems judicious. These stocks will offer some respite as they boast stable cash flows. Needless to say, the value of brands is that they instantly convey information on quality, durability and consistency to consumers. These traits help stocks counter market gyrations. And if the market pulls itself up in the near term, such companies will make the most of the positive trend as their products and services are widely accepted.
This trend toward working remotely is actually very close to my heart, it’s how Mauldin Economics operates. Since my partners and I founded the company back in 2012, we have been a “virtual business.” Although we have over 40 members of staff, no more than three of us are in the same location. Right now, my team lives in a wide range of locations: from Dallas to Dublin, Ireland, and Vermont to Vilnius, Lithuania.
The Washington Post ran a semi-humorous obituary for Smokey, labeled "Bear", calling him a transplanted New Mexico native who had resided for many years in Washington, D.C., with many years of government service. It also mentioned his family, including his wife, Goldie Bear, and "adopted son" Little Smokey. The obituary noted that Smokey and Goldie were not blood-relatives, despite the fact that they shared the same "last name" of "Bear". The Wall Street Journal included an obituary for Smokey Bear on the front page of the paper, on November 11, 1976, and so many newspapers included articles and obituaries that the National Zoo archives include four complete scrapbooks devoted to them (Series 12, boxes 66-67).
All international problems are currently suspended, awaiting the results of the US mid-term elections. The partisans of the old international order are gambling on a change of majority in Congress and a rapid destitution of President Trump. If the man in the White House holds fast, the protagonists of the war against Syria will have to admit defeat and move on to other battle fields. On the other hand, if Donald Trump should lose the elections, the war on Syria will immediately be revived by the United Kingdom. Read More
Rankin/Bass Productions, in cooperation with Tadahito Mochinaga's MOM Production in Japan, produced an "Animagic" stop motion animated television special, called The Ballad of Smokey the Bear, narrated by James Cagney. It aired on Thanksgiving Day, November 24, 1966 as part of the General Electric Fantasy Hour on NBC. This same day, a Smokey Bear balloon was featured in the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade, so it was advertised as "Thanksgiving is Smokey Bear Day on NBC TV."  During the 1969–1970 television season, Rankin/Bass also produced a weekly Saturday Morning cartoon series for ABC, called The Smokey Bear Show. This series is animated by Toei Animation in Japan.
Some may argue that a healthy labor market in the past couple of years in contrast to the dark days of the Great Recession will certainly help the broader market gain traction. After all, the unemployment rate remains below the 4% mark for the past several months, weekly jobless claims touch a 49-year low and wage growth hits the fastest pace since 2009.
At 10 times revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. That assumes I can get that by my shareholders. That assumes I have zero cost of goods sold, which is very hard for a computer company. That assumes zero expenses, which is really hard with 39,000 employees. That assumes I pay no taxes, which is very hard. And that assumes you pay no taxes on your dividends, which is kind of illegal. And that assumes with zero R&D for the next 10 years, I can maintain the current revenue run rate. Now, having done that, would any of you like to buy my stock at $64? Do you realize how ridiculous those basic assumptions are? You don’t need any transparency. You don’t need any footnotes. What were you thinking? Read More
The west line theory states that the shipping center of the world moves in a westward direction slowly over the centuries. It started in the mid east and has moved west through the Mediterranean, Europe, North America and now sits over Asia. A shipping center usually implies a production center as well giving that area great wealth. The U.S. was the previous shipping and production center in the world. We now find ourselves on the back end of prosperity and all that it entails.
In 2017 we absolutely shattered the all-time record for retail store closings in a single year, and this year it looks like we are going to shatter the record once again. In fact, there are some that are projecting that up to 9,000 retail stores could close by the time that we get to the end of this calendar year. Already, the amount of retail space that has shut down is simply jaw-dropping. If you total up all of the retail store closings that have been announced so far in 2018, it accounts for 77 million square feet of retail space. Let that number sink in for a bit. Many shopping centers and strip malls around the country already have a post-apocalyptic feel to them, and more “space available” signs are going up with each passing day. Read More
Griffin’s book is a humdinger and will certainly upset brainwashed American super-patriots, but it throughly documents how Washington’s aggression toward other lands is covered up by politicians, media, and court historians with moral verbiage. In my view the hubris, arrogance, and ignorance of “American exceptionism” has the world locked on a trajectory to its extinction in nuclear Armageddon. Read More
Take your time! I was in your shoes 6 months ago. I thought I should take advantage of the low interest rates at the time, but since learned lower home price is better than low interest rates. (interest rates and home price are basically inversely proportional) At best, home prices will stay the same through this year. Read this blog, see a ton of homes, learn about housing, loans, the home buying process, curbing your emotions, etc…
Just like a secular bull market, a secular bear market is one that lasts between five and 25 years. And while the average length of a secular bear market is about 17 years, there may be smaller bull or bear markets within it. Still, the average bear market is much shorter -- usually under a year -- and so definitions of what constitutes a secular bear market vary.
Dark Ages is not a silly username—it is a compelling fear that we are repeating the mistakes of all great civilizations, with arrogance that we can merely crush nations that will not continue to take our paper for their tangible goods. I don’t know whether folks dismiss this ranting as nonsense or actually are concerned that this is where we are headed. I cannot imagine a rainbow behind this cloud, although I was in North Carolina recently and saw a beautiful rainbow to the east, while death and destruction were occurring underneath that storm.
One of the major indicators that a bear market may be on the way is the yield curve. While the yield curve is currently flattening out, and not inverting, by sitting at around 0.2%, it is right on the edge. When the yield curve is flat, that means that the 2-year spread and the 10-year spread for bonds (in the case of the U.S. Treasury yield curve) are around the same -- basically, that the long-term interest rates aren't much better than the short-term interest rates (which they ideally should be). Given that interest should be higher for lending the government money over a long time (giving up the opportunity to do other things with your money like invest in stocks), an inverted yield curve is a sign of danger and a possible bear market.
Warren Buffett’s favorite indicator is telling us that stocks are more overvalued right now than they have ever been before in American history. That doesn’t mean that a stock market crash is imminent. In fact, this indicator has been in the “danger zone” for quite some time. But what it does tell us is that stock valuations are more bloated than we have ever seen and that a stock market crash would make perfect sense. So precisely what is the “Buffett Indicator”? Well, it is actually very simple to calculate. You just take the total market value of all stocks and divide it by the gross domestic product. Read More
So when the sky really starts to fall, smart places for serious money could be a simple money market (cash equivalent). You won't make much, but at least you won't lose anything either! Think of it like a lightning storm over a football field where your investments are the players on the field. Sometimes it's best to put your team in the locker room so no one gets hit by lightning!
Falling stock prices do not, in themselves, tell you anything about how money is moving between, say, stocks and bonds. It is not necessary for even a single share of stock to be bought/sold in order for a stock’s price to fall. The lower price simply means that the equilibrium price (the price at which buyers and sellers are willing to transact) has changed. This happens all the time when a company halts trading in its stock and then makes a major announcement. If the announcement is good news, the price adjusts upward without any trades in the stock having taken place.
Falling investor confidence is perhaps more powerful than any economic indicator, and it also often signals a bear market. When investors believe something is going to happen (a bear market, for example), they tend to take action (selling shares in order to avoid losses from expected price decreases), and these actions can ultimately turn expectations into reality. Although it is a difficult measure to quantify, investor sentiment shows through in mathematical measurements such as the put/call ratio, the advance/decline line, IPO activity and the amount of outstanding margin debt.
Historically, municipal bonds have been one of the least liquid assets on the market. While stocks can be bought and sold within seconds on exchange platforms, given the current absence of widespread secondary market platforms for the exchange of stocks, municipal bonds are much harder to maneuver. At the same time, the minimum investment amounts for stocks are typically <$500 and about $1000 for CDs and money markets; in comparison, municipal bonds have higher average buy-in minimums of $5000. These minimum investment amounts previously barred many individuals from investing in bonds.
Conventional economics holds that it is incentives—carrots and sticks—which drive individual economic actors to do what they do, and thus leads to economic growth. Although incentives are important, they are not the main driver of growth. The Neanderthal in his cave had the same incentive to eat and access to the same raw materials as we do today. Yet, our economy is vastly more advanced, why?
Check which signs of Imperial decline you see around you: The hubris of an increasingly incestuous and out-of-touch leadership; dismaying extremes of wealth inequality; self-serving, avaricious Elites; rising dependency of the lower classes on free Bread and Circuses provided by a government careening toward insolvency due to stagnating tax revenues and vast over-reach--let's stop there to catch our breath. Check, check, check and check.
Not even a full minute into an interview with Alex Jones of Info Wars, Schiff says “it’s not a good thing” that the economy is going to crash and burn. “Unfortunately, that’s what Trump has inherited from Obama. But it’s not even really just Obama, it’s the federal reserve. It’s the monetary policy that has been passed like a baton from Clinton to Bush to Obama and now to Trump. And we’re near the end of the game and unfortunately, Trump’s gonna be the fall guy. This thing is all gonna collapse while he’s president.” Read More
There is occasional confusion between bear and bare in adjectival uses (as in "he rubbed his bear arms"), but bear is properly a noun and only used like an adjective in the financial phrase bear market. All other uses refer to the state of being uncovered or naked and should therefore be bare: "bare necessities," "bare essentials," "bare arms," "bare bones," "bare-knuckle," and so on.
Led by the S&P, the next move in global equities is a black-hole plunge. Rather than protect long portfolios with Puts, why not liquidate them entirely? The Fed's stimulatory hand is played-out, & the impending Crash will strike with such force that the Silver Bullet from the past will no longer suffice to resuscitate the market. Since the market forecasts the economy more accurately than any economist, this time it's we, who must bite the Silver Bullet. Genuine Bull Markets reflect economic expansion by sub-dividing into 5-waves; Bear Market Rallies, like the Roaring Twenties, and Bernanke's megalomaniac Put are illusory, 3-wave upsides within larger Bear Markets. Only a 5-wave Crash is final. Artificial stimulus is an illicit drug, for which the Fed is the Global Pusher . Rather than more ?hair of the dog?, addicted economies can only heal via cold turkey abstinence. In return for numbing the pain of economic contraction, we have prevented healing the addiction, to dramatically aggravating the economy's ability to heal. By distorting economic incentives to divert capital away from the most worthy ventures, stimulus has exacerbated excess to perpetuate illusory Bubbles. The price of stimulus is a far more austere & enduring Depression, required to wring-out the excess via a rapid, downward GDP spiral to back-out stimulus in its entirety. Once the dollar collapse gains momentum to become universally recognized, the massive exodus out of the Dollar-denominated assets will force interest rates to skyrocket, to balloon the national debt out of control. As documented by Rogoff and Reinhart documented, This Time is NEVER different - eight centuries of financial Folly -a US default of
You never know, at any point in time, if you are in a bear market. A bear market—commonly defined as a period in which a given stock index has dropped at least 20% from a peak—can only be identified after the fact. Until the market has dropped 20% from a peak, you are not yet in a bear market. Once it’s dropped 20%, you can say that you were in a bear market, but you still have no idea where the market’s going next of if you are in what will later be viewed as a bear market. Every uptick is potentially the end of a bear market and the beginning of a new bull market.
The entire defense sector reports this week. At least the big guys do. Margin compression and the potential for lost contracts weigh heavy on these stocks right now. This is one area where I will be slow to withdraw amid weakness. Domestic and allied monies intended for this space will not draw down in a Cold War environment. Lockheed Martin (LMT) reports this morning. The numbers should be good. However, the firm has a number of deals in place with Saudi Arabia. My plan is to wait for the call before doing anything stupid. Boeing (BA) , General Dynamics (GD) , and Northrop Grumman (NOC) all report tomorrow morning, while Raytheon (RTN) will go to the tape on Thursday morning.
The transportation sector is a reflection of the goods-based economy in the US. Demand has been blistering across all modes of transportation. Freight shipment volume (not pricing… we’ll get to pricing in a moment) by truck, rail, air, and barge, according to the Cass Freight Index jumped 10.6% in July compared to a year earlier. This pushed the index, which is not seasonally adjusted, to its highest level for July since 2007.
4. While 5% real annual return doesn’t seem like much, it is a highly stable and secure return. How would stocks fair in that same time frame? Taking into account a 2% annual inflation rate, you would need a 7% nominal annual return on stocks to keep up with a 5% real return on a house. What if inflation goes to 4% or higher? Can you imagine a sustained nominal return on stocks of 9% or higher (to achieve a 5% real return on stocks)??
2. Should I choose to move and rent, the growing differential (between value and cost) becomes my growing rental income year in year out. And, this rental income goes up even if there is NO appreciation in the house’s value (the house, and rent the house can generate, merely moves up and keeps up with inflation; the real values stay flat). If I were to add the likely stream of increasing amounts on rental payments to my previous return calculation, I would get well over 5% annual returns previously mentioned.
Nothing is going to be the same after this. On Friday, the United States hit China with 34 billion dollars in tariffs, and China immediately responded with similar tariffs. If it stopped there, this trade war between the United States and China would not be catastrophic for the global economy. But it isn’t going to stop there. Donald Trump is already talking about hitting China with an additional 500 billion dollars in tariffs, which would essentially cover pretty much everything that China exports to the U.S. in a typical year. The Chinese have accused Trump of starting “the biggest trade war in economic history”, and they are pledging to fight for as long as it takes. Read More
“Furthermore, in the main, historians educated as Keynesians and monetarists do not understand the economic history of money, let alone the difference between a gold standard and a gold-exchange standard. These similar sounding monetary systems must be defined and the differences between them noted, for anyone to have the slimmest chance of understanding this vital subject, and its relevance to the situation today…
Washington, D.C., radio station WMAL personality Jackson Weaver served as the primary voice representing Smokey until Weaver's death in October 1992. In June 2008, the Forest Service launched a new series of public service announcements voiced by actor Sam Elliott, simultaneously giving Smokey a new visual design intended to appeal to young adults. Patrick Warburton provides the voice of an anonymous park ranger.
Early in 2018, we detailed Bridgewater's massive short bet against Europe, peaking at a record total short against the EU's biggest companies of around $22 billion. At the time we noted that, since Bridgewater is not known for picking individual stocks, the manager’s position was the result of a view on the wider economy according to James Helliwell, chief investment strategist of the Lex van Dam Trading Academy.
usage: Since the latter part of the 18th century, a distinction has been made between born and borne as past participles of the verb bear. borne is the past participle in all senses that do not refer to physical birth: The wheat fields have borne abundantly. Judges have always borne a burden of responsibility. borne is also the participle when the sense is “to bring forth (young)” and the focus is on the mother rather than on the child. In such cases, borne is preceded by a form of have or followed by by: She had borne a son the previous year. Two children borne by her earlier were already grown. When the focus is on the offspring or on something brought forth as if by birth, born is the standard spelling, and it occurs in passive constructions and in adjective phrases: My friend was born in Ohio. No children have been born at the South Pole. Abraham Lincoln, born in Kentucky, grew up in Illinois.
Very timely, thanks. And trust Monevator to have warned of this ages ago. I too have a friend who buys these but as day trades (naughty, I know). But when we met up in the pub the other night after work he seemed very pleased with himself and his returns, though he sticks to bank stocks (I know..) Having said that, bank stocks for the next 6-12 months seem quite the trend amongst bankers now, at least in the States..
Throughout the ages, whenever an empire has begun its inevitable collapse, no country has ever woken up and reversed the process. In every case, the government rides the decline to the bottom. And, along the way, a series of policies is invariably undertaken to save those in government in the downward rush. These policies are always at the expense of the populace. Read More
Last week more than a handful of subscribers alerted me to Jim Rickards’ beliefthat China has pegged the SDR (an IMF reserve currency) Gold price from 850-950 SDR/oz and this is what is impacting the Gold price. Rickards writes that the peg is too cheap given the scarce supply of Gold and that the IMF will print trillions of SDRs during the next global financial crisis. Read More
MOPE has failed and the world is about to implode economically and socially because of it. Your question to all of us has been when will all this happen. The answer is now. The means to this occurrence is accelerating uncontrollable volatility in the world fiat currency markets. The rise in the dollar here and now is due to Richard Russell’s thesis of the synthetic dollar short. This can be easily understood by remembering that the currency you borrow will fluctuate. If that movement is up, then you are at a loss considering where it was trading when your borrowed it. Read More
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebookhttps://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/Making the Rich PayJulia Salazar, another Democratic Socialist defeated Martin Dilan in the NY Senate primary. The only reference to taxes on her website was to "make the rich pay their fair share". That's it. Nothing about what specifically she wants to raise, ...…
They’ll spend tens of thousands on a down payment. Go in debt to the order of hundreds of thousands. Or stay in their sinking real estate while shelling out thousands every month that they could be saving. But they’ll never give my question any serious brainpower and at least think through the consequences before committing themselves to eternal debt peonage.
Bears have always operated more freely in the United States than in Europe. Despite a ban on short sales by the New York Legislature in 1812, the bear operator was a familiar figure in the nineteenth century. A few gained celebrity. Jacob Little, a saturnine figure, was a leading bear operator in the first half of the century. Known variously as the “Great Bear,” the “Old Bear,” and the “Napoleon of Wall Street”, Little also operated on the long side, and perfected the technique of catching shorts in corners, which became a characteristic feature of the U.S. market. Little was destroyed in the “Western Blizzard” crash of 1857.
I’ve read all of Matt Kratter’s books. Why? I used the simple but powerful strategies in Covered Calls, Rubber Band Stocks, Monthly Cash Machine, and Rocket Stocks. The Options strategies realized an annual yield exceeding 12% coupled with Stock Equity strategies yielding an annualized 90%. I simply followed the strategies because I’m a novice, not the brightest bulb. These strategies were adequate for advancing stock markets but there are now signs of an approaching market in decline. The BEAR has been observed prowling so I read Matt’s newest selection Bear Market Trading Strategies. I’m now informed, ready for the declining markets and am enthused. Matt has again gifted his readers with his talent of deconstructing the complex so a rational novice may continue to conservatively place trades. He advises on how to avoid negative-carry and using Options cautiously, trading with the trend. Matt advises of the dangers and promotes rationality and caution. He tells you the best times to buy and sell using simple highest price/closing price indicators. Then Matt tells the reader how to determine when the Bear is returning to the den. He devotes a chapter on how to short momentum stocks using the simple 50 and 200 day moving averages and provides historical data as confirmation. Matt wraps up by providing a strategy of buying certain stocks that other investors are selling. There are strategies in this book that I would be uncomfortable with but there are other strategies that I am comfortable with. I’ll choose and carefully implement those comfortable strategies and, given my past profitable experiences with Matt’s books, I’ll make a few nickels. ...and be sure to view Matt's videos!
JOIN PETER at the New Orleans Investment Conferencehttps://neworleansconference.com/conference-schedule/Illusion will be Replaced with Harsh RealityThis is dangerous stuff. This is the same thing thing that was being said when George Bush was President. Just because you're a Republican you don't have to claim that anything that was done by anot ...…
It’s just amazing what is happening in China. And I think that it represents a clear and present danger to everyone with money at risk. Not just the Chinese. Not just the real estate markets in countries favored by the Chinese, such as Australia. Not just in the industrial metals markets – China has been kind of 100% of the demand for the margin for steel and the like. But this debt thing is a very, very important low-hanging dark cloud over the world, and we have all gotten used to it.