When the market started falling, I was tormented by the prospect that it was just another January 29-February 9 blip. That is, a tease for the bears which would simply result in bitter disappointment. Almost the entire world felt this way, and with good reason: the bears have been cheated for nine solid years, and the BTFD crowd has been winning, so why should it be any different this time? Why not sustain such a thing until, oh, the year 2397? Read More
In short, don’t imagine that the era of managing interest rates is over. It isn’t, not by a long chalk. And in fact, I suspect that if anything could give us the “melt-up” outcome, it’s central banks making it clear that they are going to ignore above-target inflation. The idea that they’re not only not taking the punchbowl away, but spiking it with rocket fuel, would be just the ticket for a final blowout.
I remember when America was a free country. You could get on an airliner without an ID. Driving licenses didn’t even have photos. If a friend was coming through your city on a flight and had a few hours layover, you could meet them inside the airport for lunch or dinner. You could meet friends, children, and relatives at the gate or see them off at the gate. Parents could actually put children on the plane and grandparents could take them off.
However, as we explained last December, this is a low-ball estimate which "understates the potential losses" as it "does not include high-yield bonds, fixed-rate mortgages, and fixed-income derivatives", which would suggest that the real number is likely more than double the estimated when taking into account all duration products. As a reminder, Goldman calculated the entire duration universe at $40 trillion as of the summer of 2016, resulting in $2.4 trillion in losses for a 1% move. By now the number is far, far greater.
To the surprise of many investors, the precious metals have rallied while the broader markets continue to sell-off. Currently, both gold and silver are solidly in the green while the major indexes were all the red following a huge sell-off yesterday. The Dow Jones Index has lost nearly 1,000 points in the past two days while the gold price is up nearly $25.
In practice, a combination of these factors will often be at work. Investors tolerate high valuations in a benign economic environment. Bear markets will often begin after a period where investors have suspended their disbelief – the technology bubble being the notable example – but there often needs to be a catalyst for investors to recognise that over-valuation. This might be a political crisis, a currency devaluation – or a trade war?
George is well versed in several areas, so I’m sure we will get into many intense discussions on topics ranging from technology to finance to economics. Yet, George is only one of the speakers that attendees will get to hear and meet. I really hope you can be there to experience it in person, with me. If you’re ready to learn more about the SIC 2018, and the other speakers who will be there, you can do so, here.
Leuthold Group chief investment strategist and economist Jim Paulsen was cautious about stocks ahead of the January-February rout. And he remained steadfastly cautious in front of the recent sell-off. He’s made a lot of good market calls like these in the 20-plus years I’ve tracked his work and known him. Now in the current weakness, he’s turning more bullish on stocks.
Although the U.S. Forest Service fought wildfires long before World War II, the war brought a new importance and urgency to the effort. At the time, most able-bodied men were already serving in the armed forces and none could be spared to fight forest fires. The Forest Service began using colorful posters to educate Americans about the dangers of forest fires in the hope that local communities, with the most accurate information, could prevent them from starting in the first place.
Many of us do think that something isn’t quite right with the world economy. One in a million actually understands, where does it go wrong? Powers that be, do not want you to know about it as it’s your ignorance which keeps them at the top of the financial food chain. I don’t know of any other example in history where so many were looted by so few.
Then with a different data set, Odean  finds that “the securities individual investors buy subsequently underperform those they sell. When he controls for liquidity demands, tax-loss selling, rebalancing, and changes in risk aversion, investors’ timing of trades is even worse. This result suggests that not only are investors too willing to act on too little information, but they are too willing to act when they are wrong.
That concludes the fifth and final installment in this series. I hope you have enjoyed reading my insights into these “big ideas” as much as I have enjoyed writing them. Although it’s over, I do have something special to send you in the coming days. It’s a personal video message that I just finished recording. Think of it as a stepping stone to taking these “big ideas” to the next level. I’ll tell you more about it in my series recap email, tomorrow.
“Government has coddled, accepted, and ignored white collar crime for too long. It is time the nation woke up and realized that it’s not the armed robbers or drug dealers who cause the most economic harm, it’s the white collar criminals living in the most expensive homes who have the most impressive resumes who harm us the most. They steal our pensions, bankrupt our companies, and destroy thousands of jobs, ruining countless lives.” – Harry Markopolos Read More
(= endure, tolerate) → ertragen; (with neg also) → ausstehen, leiden; pain → aushalten; criticism, joking → vertragen; smell, noise etc → aushalten, vertragen; she can’t bear flying → sie kann einfach nicht fliegen; she can’t bear doing nothing → sie kann einfach nicht untätig sein; she can’t bear being laughed at → sie kann es nicht vertragen, wenn man über sie lacht; could you bear to stay a little longer? → können Sie es noch ein bisschen länger hier aushalten?
Tensions are incredibly high in the United States right now. I realized that over the past three years, I’ve written that they’re “at an all-time high” far too many times. So, I’ll just say, they’re high enough that all hell could break loose at any moment given the right (wrong) application of fuel to the flame. The number one thing you can do for this situation to keep your family safe is to be prepared for lockdown.
Dan Caplinger has been a contract writer for the Motley Fool since 2006. As the Fool's Director of Investment Planning, Dan oversees much of the personal-finance and investment-planning content published daily on Fool.com. With a background as an estate-planning attorney and independent financial consultant, Dan's articles are based on more than 20 years of experience from all angles of the financial world. Follow @DanCaplinger
A stone slab bearing 3,000-year-old writing previously unknown to scholars has been found in the Mexican state of Veracruz, and archaeologists say it is an example of the oldest script ever discovered in the Western Hemisphere. — John Noble Wilford, New York Times, 15 Sept. 2006 Large public buildings often bear only a loose resemblance to what was originally in the minds of the architects who designed them. Things get cut back to save money; somebody has second thoughts about the way part of the building will function; it takes so long to get public approval that the original idea starts to seem dated … — Paul Goldberger, New Yorker, 17 Jan. 2002 The most famous work of Louis Pasteur (1822-1895), of course, was purifying milk with the process that now bears his name. — Brendan Miniter, American Enterprise, September/October 1998 In so-called parking schemes, securities aren't carried on the books of the true owner but are temporarily sold to someone else with the understanding that the seller will continue to bear any risk of loss and reap any profits. — James B. Stewart, New Yorker, 8 Mar. 1993 As a science fiction buff, many years ago, I remember being particularly fascinated by tales of genetic surgery. Imagine the surgeon … peering through the electron microscope, repairing the sickle-cell gene and returning the ovum to its mother, who would then bear a normal child. — Richard Novick, New York Times Book Review, 15 Feb. 1987 The sight of Niña already there, snugged down as if she had been at home a month, finished Martín Alonso Pinzón. Older than Columbus, ill from the hardships of the voyage, mortified by his snub from the Sovereigns, he could bear no more. — Samuel Eliot Morison, The European Discovery of America, 1974 a symphony that can bear comparison with Beethoven's best The company agreed to bear the costs. The criminals must bear full responsibility for the deaths of these innocent people. Who will bear the blame for this tragedy?
As I mentioned last week, I no longer feel that it is prudent or productive to discuss solutions to our economic woes. The problems that we already, or are about to face are no longer solvable. The system has been damaged to such an extent, that it cannot be fixed. The series of events that is responsible for the deterioration, decimation and decay of our economic system has already occurred. The genie, so to speak, cannot be put back in the bottle. Therefore, I think we should focus on strategies that might enable us to adapt and adjust in a manner that will allow the reset to be as painless as possible. Read More
The market is not fair, but it also does not fail to show us what lies ahead if we look at its internal action very closely. This is because these market internals show us what “Big Money” is doing with their money, not what they are saying. Of course, their spokesmen and “talking heads” will try to soothe investors’ fears now. But we should vow to “follow the money”, I’d suggest. See what the Big Money is doing. We want to “anticipate the anticipations” of others (as Keynes said). But as Keynes also said, the market tends to go to extremes. At times, it is ruled by “animal spirits” rather than rationality. And as he would agree, capitalism by its very nature produces big disparities of wealth and therefore under-consumption and over-production. I would say, we are back in the 1920s again, at least in terms of Trump’s economic policies (de-regulation, tax cuts for the rich and tariffs). These are very similar to Coolidge’s main economic policies. The bull market back then lasted 8 years, August 1921 to August 1929. Our has lasted almost nine years, March 2009 to January 2018. So, a bear market is due….
Check which signs of Imperial decline you see around you: The hubris of an increasingly incestuous and out-of-touch leadership; dismaying extremes of wealth inequality; self-serving, avaricious Elites; rising dependency of the lower classes on free Bread and Circuses provided by a government careening toward insolvency due to stagnating tax revenues and vast over-reach--let's stop there to catch our breath. Check, check, check and check.
Now, entrepreneurial creativity and innovations are not going to make it into any models that economists can concoct. Because we simply do not have the tools to model that kind of complexity. Let’s dive into George’s theory of “an economics of disorder and surprise that could measure the contributions of entrepreneurs,” and extrapolate out what it means for us.
Blind faith in the U.S. dollar is perhaps one of the most crippling disabilities economists have in gauging our economic future. Historically speaking, fiat currencies are essentially animals with very short lives, and world reserve currencies are even more prone to an early death. But, for some reason, the notion that the dollar is vulnerable at all to the same fate is deemed ridiculous by the mainstream.
Winning Tip: Your financial aid appeal letter must present a precise narrative with numerical support, and include properly identified appropriate documentation (i.e. no credit card receipts) motivating the Financial Aid Office to lower your Expected Family Contribution (EFC). A lower EFC increases your family’s financial need which usually provides more financial assistance.
All international problems are currently suspended, awaiting the results of the US mid-term elections. The partisans of the old international order are gambling on a change of majority in Congress and a rapid destitution of President Trump. If the man in the White House holds fast, the protagonists of the war against Syria will have to admit defeat and move on to other battle fields. On the other hand, if Donald Trump should lose the elections, the war on Syria will immediately be revived by the United Kingdom. Read More
As the presstitutes are aligned with the military/security complex, Hillary and the DNC, and the liberal/progressive/left, the Russiagate orchestration is a powerful conspiracy against the president of the United States and the “deplorables” who elected him. Nevertheless, the Russiagate Conspiracy has fallen apart and has now been turned against its originators. Read More
But when markets crash, what many investors don't know is that almost everything crashes. The whole point of "diversification" is to buy different types of investments that DO NOT correlate with one another. If one investment has a correlation coefficient of zero, that means that it doesn't correlate at all with U.S. Stocks. If the coefficient is equivalent to -1.0, then it's negatively correlated, meaning that, when stocks fall, the investment in question goes up.
Two weeks after we reported that GE had found itself locked out of the commercial paper market following downgrades that made it ineligible for most money market investors, the pain has continued, and yesterday General Electric lost just over $5bn in market capitalization. While far less than the $49bn wiped out from AAPL the same day, it was arguably the bigger headline grabber.
That was the slogan used by then-presidential candidate Donald Trump and it propelled him to the most powerful and coveted job in the world – commander in chief of the United States. However, since Trump’s inauguration there has been much blustering and many unpopular policies that don’t seem to have been made with the promise of making America great again.
Older investors who need cash returns like dividends should mostly sit tight, or shift asset mixes more toward U.S. stocks, since the U.S. has the world's most fundamentally strong and stable economy right now. U.S. company dividends are not in apparent danger. But older investors tempted to try to snag some Apple or Facebook on the cheap might want to wait for clearer signs of stabilization before trying to make an opportunity of the sell-off.
321gold founder Bob Moriarty has been calling for a broader market crash to occur in October for the last few months. With the turmoil we’ve seen across global markets in the last couple of weeks it looks like Bob’s prognostication is playing out according to script. Energy & Gold caught up with Bob Moriarty at the end of last week to discuss topics ranging from gold & silver mining shares to what’s going on with Novo Resources to the Saudi assassination of Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul. Without further ado here is Energy & Gold’s October 2018 conversation with Bob Moriarty… Read More
Joining the likes of Bill Gross and Jeffrey Gundlach, and echoing his ominous DV01-crash warning to the NY Fed from October 2016, Bridgewater's billionaire founder and CEO Ray Dalio told Bloomberg TV that the bond market has "slipped into a bear phase" and warned that a rise in yields could spark the biggest crisis for fixed-income investors in almost 40 years.