I bought this book in early 2011. Finally read it all. This book, while obviously aimed at a way of investing the author has specialized in, is well written. And anyone who lives on a fixed income has been long aware of the actual inflation rate. Of course, it is too late to do anything about incompetent or ineffectual IRA managers, but this is one of the few books I have read that made sense to me and offered even a little hope. I don't swallow it whole, because I am out of my depth, but it is obvious he knows a lot and apparently is successful at it.
Exceptional Bear is the leading Market Timing Service tailored to the individual investor. If you are confident in taking a leading role in your own investment decisions, trusting your own judgement above that of any expert. You have come to the right place for exceptional guidance. Our track record includes the all-time record Bear Market performance in stocks.  When the S&P plunged 37% in the 2008-2009 Financial crisis, clients who followed our independently-verified guidance earned in excess of 360%.  Since then, Exceptional Bear has been awarded Timer Digest's Timer of the Year in 2015, the #2 Stock Timer by a nose in 2014 and Bond Timer of the Year in 2013. Such outstanding performance in down and flat markets is an objective measure of New-Wave Elliott mastery, the cutting-edge tool for managing portfolios during wildly volatile Bear Market dives.
Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN - Free Report) engages in the retail sale of consumer products and subscriptions in North America and internationally. The company has a Zacks Rank #2. In the last 60 days, 19 earnings estimates moved up, while none moved down for the current year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings soared 39.3% in the same period. The company’s expected earnings growth rate for the current quarter and year is 526.9% and 290.8%, respectively.
What bothers me is the wholesale move in our nation/economy in the US, and particularly CA and probably the Left Coast in general, is toward the license-and-rent economy, which at bottom is serfdom. In this system you rent your very right to exist. Not only do you have to pay for the basic sustenances of food and housing, but also water, and quiet, and movement necessary to do your job to get your cash to pay for everything you can no longer make yourself. You buy your house, then forever have to rent a place to put it from your municipality/county, just like at a trailer park. Ownership? Good heavens, all you own, someday, maybe, is the title to what sits atop the soil.
The question often arises in liberty movement circles as to how we get to the point of full blown tyranny within a society.  There are numerous factors that determine this outcome, but through all the various totalitarian systems in history there are common denominators – elements that must be there for tyrants to prevail.  When we can identify these common elements in an objective manner, we make it far more difficult for despotic structures to stand.
Looking for a home, first time buyer and loan approved but feel a bit nervous about it all. Should we wait a while knowing the market may continue to worsen? Will prices lower enough to buy us something a little better/closer to the city we currently live? Low interest rates now, will they go lower? These concerns/worries and more. Is it just first time buyer jitters? Appreciate your input.
The timing of any credit crisis is set by the rate at which the credit cycle progresses. People don’t think in terms of the credit cycle, wrongly believing it is a business cycle. The distinction is important, because a business cycle by its name suggests it emanates from business. In other words, the cycle of growth and recessions is due to instability in the private sector and this is generally believed by state planners and central bankers.
Still, bear market rallies may seem as if they are a rising bull market, but until the market shows gains of 20% from the bear market low, it can't be considered a bull market. And, while bear markets occur during the contraction phase of the business cycle, bull markets typically happen when the business cycle is expanding (shown by several indicators, like lower inflation and increased employment, among others). 
Gold’s breakout from its giant 5-year base pattern has had to wait for the dollar rally to run its course, which it now appears to have done, and this being the case, gold is now free to break out into a major bull market that looks set to dwarf all prior ones. We have in the past described gold’s base pattern from 2013 as a complex (multi-shouldered) Head-and-Shoulders bottom and while this description is still valid, it is perhaps more simply described as a Bowl or Saucer pattern, that is shown on its latest 10-year chart below. Read More
The timing of any credit crisis is set by the rate at which the credit cycle progresses. People don’t think in terms of the credit cycle, wrongly believing it is a business cycle. The distinction is important, because a business cycle by its name suggests it emanates from business. In other words, the cycle of growth and recessions is due to instability in the private sector and this is generally believed by state planners and central bankers.
The above shows how Vanguard is just lucky to operate in the U.S. where the economic growth has been a bit stronger than in the Netherlands, and it enjoys the self-reinforcing effect of $2 billion coming into the market every day. However, the bulk of Vanguard’s success was made in the 1980s and 1990s, while the returns since 2000 have been minimal.
Lower incomes, more debt, and less job security.  What this translated to in Japan was stagnant home prices for 20 full years.  We are nearing our 10 year bear market anniversary in real estate so another 10 is not impossible.  What can change this?  Higher median household incomes across the nation but at a time when gas costs $4 a gallon, grocery prices are increasing, college tuition is in a bubble, and the financial system operates with no reform and exploits the bubble of the day, it is hard to see why Americans would be pushing home prices higher.
There has never been a more fiscally clueless team at the top than the Donald and his dimwitted Treasury secretary, Simple Steve Mnuchin. After reading the latter's recent claim that financing Uncle Sam's impending trillion dollar deficits will be a breeze, we now understand how he sat on the Board of Sears for 10-years and never noticed that the company was going bankrupt.
The primary reason why stock prices have been soaring in recent months is because corporations have been buying back their own stock at an unprecedented pace.  In fact, the pace of stock buybacks is nearly double what it was at this time last year.  According to Goldman Sachs, S&P 500 companies spent 384 billion dollars buying back stock during the first half of 2018.  That is an absolutely astounding number.  And in many cases, corporations are going deep into debt in order to do this.  Of course this is going to push up stock prices, but corporate America will not be able to inflate this bubble indefinitely.  At some point a credit crunch will come, and the pace of stock buybacks will fall precipitously. Read More
The FBI brass must have needed hazmat suits to scrub DOJ Inspector General Michael Horowitz’s report on agency misconduct in the 2016 elections, since the evidence of treason at the highest level of government was abundant. The truth is being hidden, and the result is a fiction representative of something out of Orwell’s ‘1984‘; and so, we must do everything within our power to force the issue in opposition to status quo voices in government and the media, who are not representing the U.S. Constitution and objectives based on our founding virtues, We must hold these criminals, these traitors, in the FBI, the DOJ and elsewhere within the government, accountable for illegally working to prevent Donald Trump from winning the election and afterwards trying to unseat him from power.  Read More
A very long and unnecessarily drawn out novel which included too much detail about war planning and the various weapons used. U.S. casualties were unrealistically low. Author did not recognize the U.S. National Missile Defense system. Not believable that the Russians would allow the Chinese to retreat from their soil without retribution. I read the book to the end to find out what would happen; it held my attention. This book is not up to Clancy's past books for credibility.
Mallen cites consumer confidence levels near all-time highs and third-quarter GDP growth projections at a healthy 3.3%. Mallen also notes the spread between high-yield corporate bonds and 10-year U.S. Treasury notes remains relatively contained at around 3.6 percentage points. Normally this spread blows out when severe trouble lies ahead for the economy and stocks.
1. Prior market tops (1987, 2000, 2007, etc.) allowed asset managers to partially “insure” their risk assets by purchasing Treasuries that could appreciate in price as the Fed lowered policy rates. Today, that “insurance” is limited with interest rates so low. Risk assets, therefore, have a less “insurable” left tail that should be priced into higher risk premiums. Should a crisis arise because of policy mistakes, geopolitical crises, or other currently unforeseen risks, the ability to protect principal will be impaired relative to history. That in turn argues for a more cautious and easier Fed than otherwise assumed.

So, all in all, I’d say that the technicals, the new tools to aggressively short large blocks of stocks on down-ticks, the uncertainties now of a trade war with China plus the seeming jump in the chances for a shooting war somewhere, all these things, are almost certain to bring a 20% decline, but it could quickly get out of hand and match what happened in 1987. That is the real danger.
The above chart may not seem like a big deal to some but keep in mind the United States had never witnessed a year over year drop in nationwide home prices since the Great Depression.  Not only has that been surpassed but home prices are now back to levels last seen 8 years ago.  The lost decade is now nipping at our heels but what about two lost decades like Japan?
Obviously nobody knows for sure. That is what makes investing interesting and sometimes downright scary. But we need to parse through the data available and find where our convictions lie. This article is meant to give readers all the ammunition they need to discern a position for themselves but we will also provide our assessment at the end. It is fine to disagree. We need investors on both sides of the argument. That is what makes up a marketplace in the first place.
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebookhttps://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/Sacrificed on the Altar of Political CorrectnessI want to spend the rest of this podcast talking about politics; in particular, what's going on with Brett Kavanaugh and his fading chances of sitting on the Supreme Court. It appears that he may be sacrificed on ...…
In his book Nobody Knows Anything, my friend Bob Moriarty wrote about the difference between signal and noise. Unfortunately, much of the information in the gold space or what passes for such is really noise. Conspiracy theories around manipulation, price suppression and China are all too popular while important factors like real interest rates, investment demand and gold’s relationship to equities are neglected. At present the Gold market has experienced a critical breakdown yet in some circles a new theory and explanation is gaining traction.
I think I’ve figured it out.  There’s multiple Americas.  I don’t mean North, Central and South.  I mean multiple US of As.  What other explanation could there possibly be.  When I hear a windblown politician, a television yakking head, or the wholly ignorant in the streets making these comments I think:  That’s exactly what should be happening in our country!  That is exactly what I value.  That is exactly who I am.  So, here we rest our weary hearts and minds.  In a standoff across an ever-widening abyss.  An abyss of wayward ideologies, ignorance, directionless baseless hatred, stupidity… multiple Americas. Read More
I’ve been asked to comment on the most recent market decline. My initial reaction was, markets go up and they go down. America is a great country but the US Constitution doesn’t guarantee always-rising markets. I sat down and I wanted to write a reassuring message. I wanted to express my empathy. Somehow, I found that my reservoir of empathy was empty: After recent decline the market is still up twenty-something percent from the beginning of 2017.
Today by far the deadliest weapon of mass destruction in Washington’s arsenal lies not with the Pentagon or its traditional killing machines. It’s de facto a silent weapon: the ability of Washington to control the global supply of money, of dollars, through actions of the privately-owned Federal Reserve in coordination with the US Treasury and select Wall Street financial groups. Developed over a period of decades since the decoupling of the dollar from gold by Nixon in August, 1971, today control of the dollar is a financial weapon that few if any rival nations are prepared to withstand, at least not yet. Read More
I don’t wish to get too deep into the weeds here, but to explain this, you have to look to the money multiplier. The money multiplier is the amount of money that banks generate with each dollar of reserves. Due to the over-indebtedness of the economy—or more precisely, the lack of “savings”—the multiplier has plunged from 12.1 in 1985, to 3.6 today.
By a very wide margin, this is the most optimistic that Americans have been about the future since I started The Economic Collapse Blog in late 2009.  Even though the middle class is shrinking, 102 million working age Americans do not have a job, and we are now 21 trillion dollars in debt, most people are feeling really good about things right now.  Especially among Republicans, there is an overwhelming consensus that the United States is starting to head in the right direction and that better times are ahead.  As a result, so many of the exact same people that were “prepping” while Barack Obama was in the White House are now partying now that Donald Trump is president. Read More
I decided that before I sat down to write the weekly recap and outlook for the gold and silver markets that I would go to a few of the great commentary sites such as Streetwise, 321Gold, Goldseek and Gold-Eagle and read what the other “experts” are saying about the precious metals markets before I attack the keyboard. Earlier in the week, I had been working on a Western Uranium Corp. story and was astounded how stress-free it was writing about an energy deal as opposed to a sound money deal. Read More
Revenue bonds: Principal and interest are secured by revenues derived from tolls, charges or rents from the facility built with the proceeds of the bond issue. Public projects financed by revenue bonds include toll roads, bridges, airports, water and sewage treatment facilities, hospitals and subsidized housing. Many of these bonds are issued by special authorities created for that particular purpose.[1]
A 20% drop by the DJI will next require it to break below its support at 23180. History,1928–2017, suggests that ordinarily a bigger decline more than 15% is usually delayed until (1) the NYSE A/D Line has shown a much longer period of divergence than we have so far had, and/or (2) the Tiger Accumulation Index has been negative a lot longer than it has now or (3) that a sudden DJI head/shoulders top pattern has appeared which shows a rapid re-evaluation of market conditions by Professionals. None of these three conditions are present now. So, technically a decline below 23180 should not occur at this juncture, if this were a “normal” market. But downside volatility is very high now and the DJI is unable to stay within its normal Peerless trading bands.
This week, gold rose slightly on balance, while silver maintained its climb out of a deep pit. In early-morning European trade today (Friday) gold was trading at $1199, up $7 from last Friday’s close. Silver was unchanged on the week at $14.50, but as can be seen on our headline chart, silver’s relative performance since the mid-September lows is encouraging.
The active December contract expires next week, and 233,000 contracts will have to be liquidated or rolled forward. But if the shorts are reluctant to roll positions forward, then a bear squeeze should ensue. Traders will be looking for news and rumour for guidance, and ahead of the G20 meeting in Buenos Aires, there are likely to be plenty. Read More
The indicator I use to get a broader, real-time measure of inflation is the New York Fed’s Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG). This gauge captures sustained movements in inflation from information contained in a broad set of price, real activity, and financial data. In December, the UIG hit its highest level since August 2006, as the below chart shows.
As the presstitutes are aligned with the military/security complex, Hillary and the DNC, and the liberal/progressive/left, the Russiagate orchestration is a powerful conspiracy against the president of the United States and the “deplorables” who elected him. Nevertheless, the Russiagate Conspiracy has fallen apart and has now been turned against its originators. Read More
“Exhilarating...You’d have to be numb not to be impressed by the scale of [Clancy’s] ambition, his feel for the way information now flashes instantaneously across the globe, his mastery of technological developments. No other novelists is giving so full a picture of modern conflict, equally adeptly depicting those at the top and bottom of military and intelligence systems.”—The London Sunday Times
This book will make self investors think about how to allocate their own investments. Markets have really fallen apart since the book went to press. Of course commodity sectors, international and emerging markets have fallen as much or further and the dollar has risen. I think Peter Schiff's analysis deserves a lot of merit and the selloffs in the overbought commodities and emerging markets areas gives investors a great opportunity to reanalyze their own portfolios. Great read!
The above chart may not seem like a big deal to some but keep in mind the United States had never witnessed a year over year drop in nationwide home prices since the Great Depression.  Not only has that been surpassed but home prices are now back to levels last seen 8 years ago.  The lost decade is now nipping at our heels but what about two lost decades like Japan?
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RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebookhttps://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/Fed Responsible for Most Recent Move UpI think what's really responsible for this most recent move up is the Fed comments. Now maybe Trump can take credit for those, maybe President Trump was able to get Jerome Powell's mind right after all, when it comes to ra ...…

Rogers gained fame as the co-founder, with George Soros, of the Quantum Fund. He has been a frequent interviewee or panelist for financial publications and news programs. Rogers shorted stocks of Wall Street investment banks ahead of the 2008 crash, Money says. Back then, high debt loads were a catalyst for the crash. Today, Rogers points out that debt loads are vastly bigger, notably in the U.S., China and the Federal Reserve. Regarding the magnitude of the upcoming crash that he anticipates, Money quotes Rogers, age 74, as warning, "It's going to be the biggest in my lifetime."
It’s been 30-weeks since the last 6-month low (December). The intermediate cycle has averaged about 23-weeks, so we are well overdue for a bottom. Interestingly, while gold crashed nearly 10% in 2-months, gold miners remained relatively stable. Currently, they linger just 6% below their April highs; their resilience should not be ignored. It speaks of a hidden energy that once loose, should deliver brilliant gains. Read More

When the market started falling, I was tormented by the prospect that it was just another January 29-February 9 blip. That is, a tease for the bears which would simply result in bitter disappointment. Almost the entire world felt this way, and with good reason: the bears have been cheated for nine solid years, and the BTFD crowd has been winning, so why should it be any different this time? Why not sustain such a thing until, oh, the year 2397? Read More
The second important institutional change is the growth in the mutual fund industry since the mid-1980s, which resulted from the changes in the retirement plans as well as from the individual small investor’s demand for an inexpensive means of acquiring a diversified investment in the capital markets. Households’ investment in stock and bond mutual funds (not including those held indirectly through pension funds) grew from about 1% of total financial assets in 1984 to 9% in 2002. To be sure, with the increased prominence of pension funds and stock and bond mutual funds, direct holdings of stocks and bonds as a share of financial assets has declined from about 37% in 1960 to 22% in 2002. Nevertheless, the potential cost advantage and portfolio diversification available through financial intermediaries facilitates household investment in stocks and bonds. Therefore, the availability of pension and mutual funds should tend to work in consort with the underlying economic fundamentals affecting households’ demand for stocks going forward.
Obviously nobody knows for sure. That is what makes investing interesting and sometimes downright scary. But we need to parse through the data available and find where our convictions lie. This article is meant to give readers all the ammunition they need to discern a position for themselves but we will also provide our assessment at the end. It is fine to disagree. We need investors on both sides of the argument. That is what makes up a marketplace in the first place.
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/Merchandise Trade Deficit Largest Trade Deficit on RecordToday's rally had to overlook the bad news that came out today. I was watching CNBC this morning just before the news was announced and the anchor said, "We've got a lot of news coming out at 8:30 and I ...…
Tensions are incredibly high in the United States right now. I realized that over the past three years, I’ve written that they’re “at an all-time high” far too many times. So, I’ll just say, they’re high enough that all hell could break loose at any moment given the right (wrong) application of fuel to the flame. The number one thing you can do for this situation to keep your family safe is to be prepared for lockdown.
The equity market continues to suffer several months of uncertainty. Predominantly, it’s because of the possibility of a Sino-U.S. trade war in the near term. President Trump recently said that he was “ready to go” on hitting China with an additional $267 billion worth of tariffs. The Trump administration is already finalizing plans to impose tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese products. If these measures are met with retaliatory actions by China, it could lead to a full-on trade conflict, one that could adversely affect global economies and eventually squeeze corporate profits.
The 5 percent down is not all that risky for fund investors because the quality of the borrowers is high and the fact that the Freedom Note would pay down to $294,557 by only the third year; while with the Slave Note, your balance is $654,809 by the third year. So with the Slave Note, after 3 years your balance has reduced by $45,190 or 6 percent while with the Freedom Note, even though the rate is over twice the Slave Note, it reduces its balance by $44,233 or 13% – yes 13 percent!
The most eloquent justification for the bear is provided by the American financier Bernard Baruch, who was called to Washington in 1916 after a market panic to explain his short-sales of the stock of the Brooklyn Rapid Transport Company, a go-go stock of that era. At the time some members of Congress were calling for short- selling to be banned. Baruch stood his ground, politely explaining to the politicians that “bears can only make money if the bulls push up stocks to where they are overpriced and unsound.” He continued:
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/A Big Constituency of Highly Indebted PeopleThe fact that you have created this big constituency of highly indebted young people - they're like indentured servants. The government now loans them the money and now they are in debt to the government for the rest ...…
Quite simply, I think stock investors looked at the surfacing of real problems in their favorite FAANG stocks and, so, failed this time to find any fun in the frivolous fiction of government factoids. GDP reportage has been fake for years, and it is no less fake under Trump than under any other president. Fake is where you find it. You can find it as much on Fox as on CNN.  Read More

Beginning in 2010, central banks around the world turned from being net sellers of gold to net buyers of gold. Last year official sector activity rose 36 percent to 366 tonnes – a substantial increase from 2016. The top 10 central banks with the largest gold reserves have remained mostly unchanged for the last few years. The United States holds the number one spot with over 8,000 tonnes of gold in its vaults – nearly as much as the next three countries combined.
Niall Ferguson is a senior fellow at Stanford University, and a senior fellow of the Center for European Studies at Harvard, where he served for twelve years as a professor of history. Niall is one of the finest economic historians on the planet; but he isn’t only an academic. What many people don’t know is that he works with a small group of elite hedge fund managers and executives as the managing director of macroeconomic and geopolitical advisory firm, Greenmantle.
Stocks with relatively low debt and lower P/E ratios are Corning Inc. (NYSE: GLW), Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (NASDAQ: BBBY), American Express (NYSE: AXP), Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS), Whirlpool Corp. (NYSE: WHR), PVH Corp. (NYSE: PVH), and CVS Corp. (NYSE: CVS). However, the average P/E ratio of this list is still at 13 which implies just a 7% long term return. For those who want more, the best thing to do is to look for special situations and emerging markets.
Jim, I have so much been looking forward – ever since we launched this podcast two years ago with Jim Rogers, actually, as our first guest – I’ve been looking forward to getting you on the program. And, frankly, I’m glad it took this long because I don’t think there’s ever been a more important time in the last ten years to be very closely observing interest rates.
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