AnnS, your “tri-county area” is undoubtedly flyover/filler state crap. And that’s why the banks are quick to take it back and unload it as soon as possible, because it most likely didn’t run up significantly to begin with thus the losses won’t be steep (and most likely the bulk of these properties were already FHA/VA/FME/FRE backed or will be now). In prime areas the banks are looking at jumbo loan balances that they and they alone are on the hook for the losses – often to the tune of 6 or even 7 figures EACH.
Many of us do think that something isn’t quite right with the world economy. One in a million actually understands, where does it go wrong? Powers that be, do not want you to know about it as it’s your ignorance which keeps them at the top of the financial food chain. I don’t know of any other example in history where so many were looted by so few.
It’s not a coincidence that populism emerged as a political force in both the 1920s–1930s, and again today. In each case, people at the bottom could tell the economy wasn’t working in their favor. The best tool they had to do something about it was the vote, so they elected FDR then, and Trump now. Two very different presidents, but both responsive to the most intensely angered voters of their eras.
4. I don’t know whether G. Shilling is right or not on deflation. I think he is right on the economic slowdown, but not necessarily on the inflation piece (can have slowdown AND inflation). But, I’ll give it the following probabilities: 20% chance of another decade or so of Japan-like deflation; 80% chance of sustained, lasting inflation for decades (sustained bouts of stagflation).
Dr. Schiller has been an invaluable contributor to financial market dialogue for many years. He will eventually be right as investment psychology has a habit of going off the deep end from time to time. I offer the above only to try to analyze why we are where we are now. What will eventually put pressure on equity prices are competitive returns from debt instruments (higher interest rates) and that is not likely to happen soon since the power structure appears to favor the current status quo.
Bacarella agrees that the current selling is not the start of a bear market. So he’s watching FAANG stocks and tech stocks, such as Amazon.com AMZN, +5.28% Alphabet GOOGL, +2.51% GOOG, +2.42% and Adobe ADBE, +2.84% for roughly 5% declines below where they traded Wednesday, to add to those names. He says he’d add Apple AAPL, +1.35% if it fell another 13%. “These are important support levels.”
Led by the S&P, the next move in global equities is a black-hole plunge. Rather than protect long portfolios with Puts, why not liquidate them entirely? The Fed's stimulatory hand is played-out, & the impending Crash will strike with such force that the Silver Bullet from the past will no longer suffice to resuscitate the market. Since the market forecasts the economy more accurately than any economist, this time it's we, who must bite the Silver Bullet. Genuine Bull Markets reflect economic expansion by sub-dividing into 5-waves; Bear Market Rallies, like the Roaring Twenties, and Bernanke's megalomaniac Put are illusory, 3-wave upsides within larger Bear Markets. Only a 5-wave Crash is final. Artificial stimulus is an illicit drug, for which the Fed is the Global Pusher . Rather than more ?hair of the dog?, addicted economies can only heal via cold turkey abstinence. In return for numbing the pain of economic contraction, we have prevented healing the addiction, to dramatically aggravating the economy's ability to heal. By distorting economic incentives to divert capital away from the most worthy ventures, stimulus has exacerbated excess to perpetuate illusory Bubbles. The price of stimulus is a far more austere & enduring Depression, required to wring-out the excess via a rapid, downward GDP spiral to back-out stimulus in its entirety. Once the dollar collapse gains momentum to become universally recognized, the massive exodus out of the Dollar-denominated assets will force interest rates to skyrocket, to balloon the national debt out of control. As documented by Rogoff and Reinhart documented, This Time is NEVER different - eight centuries of financial Folly -a US default of
Yet in many ways, bad news for bonds is good news for equities. Investors seem to turn to stocks when bond prices are falling, as changes in bond yields and equity performance have been positively correlated since 1998. Plus, an increase in inflation expectations that's driven by economic growth is usually a good sign for equities, especially when expected inflation crosses the 2 percent threshold.
As this stock market correction progresses, it is natural to consider what levels may be effectivein halting the decline. We have recently taken a stab at a couple potential “support” levels in the U.S. market with excellent success, so far. Those posts include Monday’s The Mother Of All Support Levels on the broad Value Line Geometric Composite which held precisely, as well as a few Premium Posts at The Lyons Share covering key sectors, which also held on cue: Market Leaders At Must-Hold Levels and Finally Some Support To Bank On (if you’d like to see these posts, shoot us an email at [email protected] and we’d be happy to share). Read More
The corollary is that investors should bet on what they think will happen over the medium to long term, stripping out their inclination to guess what other investors will do this week or this month. If you think electric cars are going to take over the world, for example, it might well be smart to snag some Tesla while it's on sale, if you can afford to wait for the bounce back.
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Many BullionStar customers are already be familiar with using Bitcoin when buying and selling gold, silver and platinum bars and coins, as BullionStar has been accepting Bitcoin as a form of payment since May 2014. BullionStar was one of the first bullion dealers worldwide to offer customers the ability to buy and sell physical precious metals using Bitcoin. Now with the addition of Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash and Litecoin, BullionStar is again one of the first bullion dealers in the world to offer customers the ability to transact in these other leading cryptocurrencies for both buy and sell orders.Read More
It seems a lot of the otherwise sellers hold off selling and banks being very slow releasing REOs. They seem to think market will improve in San Diego in the next few months or later. Many of the ones on the market are so over priced they don’t go anywhere and price reductions are slow to come. There is definitely a stalemate between sellers and buyers in San Diego market.
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A while ago, I asked a regular commenter at the Automatic Earth, who goes by the moniker Dr. D, to try and write an article for us. Not long after, I received no less than 31 pages, and an even 12345 words. Way too long for today’s digital attention spans. We decided to split it into 5 chapters. After we work through those 5, we’ll post it as one piece as well. Dr. D, who insists on sticking with his nom de plume, picked his own topic, and it’s -fittingly- bitcoin. A topic about which one can cover a lot of ground in 12345 words.
At the time of publication, Michael Brush had no positions in any stocks mentioned in this column. Brush has suggested AMZN and GOOGL in his stock newsletter Brush Up on Stocks. Brush is a Manhattan-based financial writer who has covered business for the New York Times and The Economist Group, and he attended Columbia Business School in the Knight-Bagehot program.
By the end of June 2011, the Fed had only reached its half-way mark in money printing. It was shortly thereafter that the Fed had implemented its “operation twist.” Operation twist consisted of selling the Fed’s short term holdings and using the proceeds plus extra printed money to buy Treasuries at the long-end of the curve – primarily 10-yr bonds. Read More
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During bear market periods, investing can be risky even for the most seasoned of investors. A bear market is a period marked with falling stock prices. In a bear market, investor confidence is extremely low. Many investors opt to sell off their stocks during a bear market for fear of further losses, thus fueling a vicious cycle of negativity. Although the financial implications of bear markets can vary, typically, bear markets are marked by a 20% downturn or more in stock prices over at least a two-month timeframe.
At the beginning of April, JPMorgan's Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou pointed out something unexpected: in a time when everyone was stressing out over the upcoming inversion in the Treasury yield curve, the JPM analyst showed that the forward curve for the 1-month US OIS rate, a proxy for the Fed policy rate, had already inverted after the two-year forward point. In other words, while cash instruments had yet to officially invert, the market had already priced this move in. Read More
“Back in the heyday of the old Soviet Union, a phrase evolved to describe gullible western intellectuals who came to visit Russia and failed to notice the human and other costs of building a communist utopia. The phrase was “useful idiots” and it applied to a good many people who should have known better. I now propose a new, analogous term more appropriate for the age in which we live: useful hypocrites. That’s you and me, folks, and it’s how the masters of the digital universe see us. And they have pretty good reasons for seeing us that way. They hear us whingeing about privacy, security, surveillance, etc., but notice that despite our complaints and suspicions, we appear to do nothing about it. In other words, we say one thing and do another, which is as good a working definition of hypocrisy as one could hope for.”—John Naughton, The Guardian Read More
Last week more than a handful of subscribers alerted me to Jim Rickards’ beliefthat China has pegged the SDR (an IMF reserve currency) Gold price from 850-950 SDR/oz and this is what is impacting the Gold price. Rickards writes that the peg is too cheap given the scarce supply of Gold and that the IMF will print trillions of SDRs during the next global financial crisis. Read More
The fundamental principal of information theory is that all information is surprise; only surprise qualifies as information. Sound familiar? George recognized the tie between entrepreneurial surprise and information theory: “Claude Shannon defined information as surprise, and Albert Hirshman defined entrepreneurship as surprise. Here we have a crucial tie between the economy and information theory. For the first time, it became possible to create an economics that could capture the surprising creativity of entrepreneurs.
Dr. D: You have to understand what exchanges are and are not. An exchange is a central point where owners post collateral and thereby join and trade on the exchange. The exchange backs the trades with their solvency and reputation, but it’s not a barter system, and it’s not free: the exchange has to make money too. Look at the Comex, which reaches back to the early history of commodities exchange which was founded to match buyers of say, wheat, like General Mills, with producers, the farmers. But why not just have the farmer drive to the local silo and sell there? Two reasons: one, unlike manufacturing, harvests are lumpy. To have everyone buy or sell at one time of the year would cripple the demand for money in that season. This may be why market crashes happen historically at harvest when the demand for money (i.e. Deflation) was highest. Secondly, however, suppose the weather turned bad: all farmers would be ruined simultaneously. Read More
The stock market has stayed strong for close to a decade now, and along the way, it's produced impressive returns for stock investors. Yet this far into a bull market, the biggest fear for many people who are considering putting money into stocks is that they could end up investing at exactly the wrong time: right before a bear market hits and devastates their portfolios.
1. Prior market tops (1987, 2000, 2007, etc.) allowed asset managers to partially “insure” their risk assets by purchasing Treasuries that could appreciate in price as the Fed lowered policy rates. Today, that “insurance” is limited with interest rates so low. Risk assets, therefore, have a less “insurable” left tail that should be priced into higher risk premiums. Should a crisis arise because of policy mistakes, geopolitical crises, or other currently unforeseen risks, the ability to protect principal will be impaired relative to history. That in turn argues for a more cautious and easier Fed than otherwise assumed.
“Furthermore, in the main, historians educated as Keynesians and monetarists do not understand the economic history of money, let alone the difference between a gold standard and a gold-exchange standard. These similar sounding monetary systems must be defined and the differences between them noted, for anyone to have the slimmest chance of understanding this vital subject, and its relevance to the situation today…
Gold’s breakout from its giant 5-year base pattern has had to wait for the dollar rally to run its course, which it now appears to have done, and this being the case, gold is now free to break out into a major bull market that looks set to dwarf all prior ones. We have in the past described gold’s base pattern from 2013 as a complex (multi-shouldered) Head-and-Shoulders bottom and while this description is still valid, it is perhaps more simply described as a Bowl or Saucer pattern, that is shown on its latest 10-year chart below. Read More
I want you to understand this. This was no speedy drive by. This was a 16-hour trip, by two U.S. warships enforcing their right to travel international waters -- waters that China would obviously dispute the use of the word "international" as descriptive. The U.S. ships were shadowed by Chinese warships. This is cold war behavior. Been there, done that.
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In his book, “1984”, George Orwell envisioned a future crushed by the iron grip of a collectivist oligarchy. The narrative told of the INGSOC Party which maintained power through a system of surveillance and brutality designed to monitor and control every aspect of society. From the time of the book’s release in 1949, any ensuing vision of a dark dystopia depicting variations of jackboots stomping on human faces, forever, has been referenced as being “Orwellian”. This is because Orwell’s narrative illustrated various disturbing and unjust conceptualizations of control, crime, and punishment. Read More
These two early pieces of legislation against short- selling reveal a common theme in the history of the bears. Bubbles occur when speculators drive asset prices far above their intrinsic value. The collapse of a bubble is frequently accompanied by an economic crisis. Who gets the blame for this crisis? Not the bulls, who were responsible for the bubble and the various frauds and manipulations perpetrated to keep shares high, while cashing in their profits.
Build America Bonds are a taxable municipal bond created under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 that carry special tax credits and federal subsidies for either the bond holder or the bond issuer. Many issuers have taken advantage of the Build America Bond provision to secure financing at a lower cost than issuing traditional tax-exempt bonds. The Build America Bond provision, which expired on January 1, 2011, was open to governmental agencies issuing bonds to fund capital expenditures.
The Goldman Sachs Group operates as an investment banking, securities, and investment management company worldwide. The company has a Zacks Rank #2. In the last 60 days, seven earnings estimates moved north, while none moved south for the current year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings increased 7.6% in the same period. The company’s expected earnings growth rate for the current quarter and year is 15.5% and 26.5%, respectively.
Bill Pawelec taught me the meaning and importance of predictive programming. As a result, I am going to reveal a partially redacted, but very relevant email from a member of my audience about the extreme relevance of predictive programming. And then I am going to allow the predictive words of my late friend, CIA contract agent and former Air Force Intel operative, Bill Pawelec, who revealed what is coming and I fear we will not have to wait very long this to happen.
As a savvy investor, you should be especially wary of inappropriate holdover patterns from the long Bull Market. Perhaps you sense that it may be time to take back control of your finances, in the same way legendary hedge fund manager, George Soros, came out of retirement to rescue his own fortune. Like him, you will be able to sleep soundly, knowing your living standards are secure.
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT - Free Report) manufactures and sells construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines, and diesel-electric locomotives for construction, resource, and energy and transportation industries. The company has a Zacks Rank #2. In the last 60 days, 11 earnings estimates moved north, while none moved south for the current year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings rose 8.4% in the same period. The company’s expected earnings growth rate for the current quarter and year is 44.6% and 69.3%, respectively.
President Obama on March 3, 2009 said "What you're now seeing is profit-and-earning ratios are starting to get to the point where buying stocks is a potentially good deal if you've got a long-term perspective on it," probably meaning price-earnings ratio. Many stocks were trading at low P/E levels despite first quarter strong earnings. On the same day, David Serchuk of Forbes magazine says he feels that the market will turn around when housing prices stabilize and oil prices rise again.
In 1970, the U.S. fell into recession, and for more than a decade, the economy and the stock market languished. Productivity growth slowed to 1.8% per year, and inflation reached into the double-digits by the end of the decade. In this environment, the stock market was a poor investment. The stock market anticipated the 1970 recession somewhat, and, after peaking in December 1968, experienced a long secular decline. The inflation-adjusted S&P 500 lost 55% of its value before hitting an interim low in December 1974, and another 6% by the time it finally reached a bottom in July 1982. Over this approximately 14-year “bear market,” the inflation-adjusted per capita net worth of households rose a meager 0.2% per year.
I’ve been to Japan several times, and I can personally attest to the fact that the people there have been demoralized by the last two decades. The sense of forward movement that was common in Japan two decades ago has been replaced by a sense of lowered expectations and insecurity. In the US, I remember this demoralization in the early 1990’s, with that weak economy and high crime levels. But then the late 1990’s boom time came and all that was forgotten, and even the early 2000’s recession and 9/11 couldn’t shake the optimism. But now, the sense that things are going downhill seems to be back in the US, especially among the middle class (the moneyed class is doing fine).
However, as we explained last December, this is a low-ball estimate which "understates the potential losses" as it "does not include high-yield bonds, fixed-rate mortgages, and fixed-income derivatives", which would suggest that the real number is likely more than double the estimated when taking into account all duration products. As a reminder, Goldman calculated the entire duration universe at $40 trillion as of the summer of 2016, resulting in $2.4 trillion in losses for a 1% move. By now the number is far, far greater.