Twice in the past the price of silver has risen in a short period to $50. It happened in 1980 during the Hunt brother’s manipulation and again three decades later in April 2011, when the price rose to nearly $50. Prior to the price run up in 2011, I wrote that a move to $50 was more than possible, since it had already occurred and that proved such a move was possible. Something that has happened twice before can certainly occur again. One thing that makes it probable is that there was three times the amount of silver above ground in 1980 than there is today. The six billion ounces that existed in 1980 has shrunk to two billion ounces of industry standard 1000 ounces bars. The amount of world money creation and buying power has increased exponentially over the past seven years. Read More

With the massive net short position in both gold and silver Comex paper precious metals, offset by the historic net long position of the “commercials” (banks, mining companies, users, hedgers), numerous rumors are swirling around the precious metals market. For certain, the availability of physical gold bars in London that can be delivered to the large eastern hemisphere buyers who demand delivery is growing tight.  Apparently the retail silver coin/bar market is starting to feel supply strains. Read More


Tech stocks that have been the strongest performer so far this year, in the meantime, did snap a four-day losing streak on Sep 10. But, let’s admit that such stocks are vulnerable to trade-related issues. Trump himself urged Apple Inc APPL to shift its production from China to the United States. The trillion-dollar company said that tariffs on China would hurt its revenues and impact a wide range of its products.
The poll of 30 finance professionals on four continents showed a lack of consensus on the asset judged as most vulnerable now, with answers ranging from European high yield to local-currency emerging-market debt, though they were mostly in the bond world. Among 25 responding to a question on the next US recession, the median answer was the first half of 2019.

Questions like Ron’s that suggest the decay of capitalism and free markets should raise concerns for anyone’s market thesis, bullish, bearish or agnostic. What stops a central bank from manipulating asset prices? When do they cross a line from marginal manipulation to absolute price control? Unfortunately, there are no concrete answers to these questions, but there are clues. Read More
The causes and characteristics of bear markets vary, but most financial theorists agree that economic cycles and investor sentiment both play a role in the creation and momentum of bear markets. In general, a weak or weakening economy -- indicated by low employment, low disposable income, and declining business profits -- ushers in a bear market. The existence of several new trading lows for well-known companies might also indicate that a bear market is occurring. It is important to note that government involvement affects bear markets. Changes in the federal funds rate or in various tax rates can encourage economic expansion or contraction, ultimately leading to bull or bear markets.

A spook who somehow got onto the Trump transition team… how did that happen at all? I think he was spying FOR THE RUSSIANS (and maybe the DNC) to help get old easily manipulated Hillary “Re-set Button” Clinton elected! The entire premise of the Muh Russian conspiracy makes absolutely no sense. Why on earth would the Russians want POTUS Trump in the White House???


         I feel that the market is at it’s worst as far as the quailty of available homes at “Fair” prices – we realize that we will lose money, that’s a fact! Also, the sale will unfortunatly bolster the false values of the market. As the Doc’s readers know far too well, the stars have aligned and the wave is comming soon, prices will move further downward to a point of equalibrium with incomes, inventory, supply and demand. It looks like the banks will fight the whole way down delaying a natural correction. Folks have far too much debt into thier properties to make Short sales, preforclosers, forclosures sales work and finding folks who’ve lived many years in the same home with a good amount of equity to negociate with are very rare and thier homes are seldom Gems. 
Remember when we were assured that HRC was not a target of interest to the Russians and therefore we could be confident that they never even attempted to hack her server, which was conveniently still in it’s woefully under-protected state while this spy ring was targeting her specifically? The people who told us not to worry our pretty little heads are the same ones who knew all about this spy ring.
You’ll keep wasting money on expired put options (like spending insurance premiums), and it will drag down your returns during bull markets. Then during a bear market, you might get a nice payout when one of your recent round of put options finally becomes valuable, but it might not make up for all the expired put options you already paid for, depending on how long you’ve been doing it.
Even though the gold price increased in 2018, the top gold miners production declined while costs continue to escalate. Output at three of the top gold miners in the world fell in the first half of 2018 compared to the same period last year.  With rising costs due to higher energy prices, on top of decreasing production, the top gold miners free cash flow declined precipitously in 2018.
Trade wars are usually bad for all parties in the end but between the beginning and the end there can be some surprising developments. Human actions and delusions on the part of the public can produce strange results at times. All of our systems are based on trust. When that trust is lost, everything will come crashing down. Until then, things will go on. Read More
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/Optimism Over No Tariffs Fueling Market MoveDonald Trump, I think, was the reason the markets ended up finishing in the black today, at least most of the major indexes. In fact, the only index that was down on the day was the NASDAQ - the NASDAQ was the only m ...…
Dr. D: You have to understand what exchanges are and are not. An exchange is a central point where owners post collateral and thereby join and trade on the exchange. The exchange backs the trades with their solvency and reputation, but it’s not a barter system, and it’s not free: the exchange has to make money too. Look at the Comex, which reaches back to the early history of commodities exchange which was founded to match buyers of say, wheat, like General Mills, with producers, the farmers. But why not just have the farmer drive to the local silo and sell there? Two reasons: one, unlike manufacturing, harvests are lumpy. To have everyone buy or sell at one time of the year would cripple the demand for money in that season. This may be why market crashes happen historically at harvest when the demand for money (i.e. Deflation) was highest. Secondly, however, suppose the weather turned bad: all farmers would be ruined simultaneously. Read More
Interest rate rises remain a key reason for a bear market, though there is a greater danger when they are unexpected. In its analysis on U.S. bear markets since 1929, looking at 10 major bear markets since 1929, JP Morgan Asset Management offered three other potential causes for a bear market: recession, commodity spike and extreme valuations. Of these, recession and commodity prices are more influential than extreme valuations.
We have written numerous times before about how the East is preparing for a return to some form of a gold standard while the West tries to hang on to a dying system of debt based fiat currency.  And with the heads of the IMF and Bank of England are both signalling that the world is well underway towards the transition to a new global financial system, the battle lines are being drawn as to which side will win out.
The reason why sticking with a plan is so important is that it lets you invest at low prices, allowing your money to go further by buying more shares. When stocks recover, you'll own more shares and earn particularly strong returns on the investments you made at or near market lows. Capitalizing on those opportunities will have a definite positive impact on your long-term returns -- as long as you have the discipline to pull the trigger when the time comes.
"Bring on the Trade War!"Today is Jobs Friday, but before I get to the jobs report, I want to talk a little bit about the escalation of the trade war, In fact, some stories I'm reading are that the trade war began today, or last night. A lot of the tariffs are finally being imposed. The market reacted positively; the Dow was up 100 points today ...…
That head of state, President Tsai Ing-Wen placed a congratulatory phone call to President-elect Trump after his election in December of 2016. The acceptance of that phone call made headlines at the time. On Monday, news broke that the USS Antietam, a guided missile cruiser, and the USS Curtis Wright, a guided missile destroyer, had traversed their way through the Taiwan Straight.
A 20% drop by the DJI will next require it to break below its support at 23180. History,1928–2017, suggests that ordinarily a bigger decline more than 15% is usually delayed until (1) the NYSE A/D Line has shown a much longer period of divergence than we have so far had, and/or (2) the Tiger Accumulation Index has been negative a lot longer than it has now or (3) that a sudden DJI head/shoulders top pattern has appeared which shows a rapid re-evaluation of market conditions by Professionals. None of these three conditions are present now. So, technically a decline below 23180 should not occur at this juncture, if this were a “normal” market. But downside volatility is very high now and the DJI is unable to stay within its normal Peerless trading bands.
Questions like Ron’s that suggest the decay of capitalism and free markets should raise concerns for anyone’s market thesis, bullish, bearish or agnostic. What stops a central bank from manipulating asset prices? When do they cross a line from marginal manipulation to absolute price control? Unfortunately, there are no concrete answers to these questions, but there are clues. Read More
There are two crucial factors why silver will increase more in value than gold during the next financial meltdown.  These factors are not well known by many precious metals analysts because they focus on antiquated information and knowledge.  While several individuals in the precious metals community forecast a much higher Gold-Silver ratio during the next financial crash, I see quite the opposite taking place.
I think of velocity as a machine which money has to go through to produce economic activity. If the machine is on a low setting, it doesn’t matter how much money you put in—you won’t get growth. The falling velocity of money, which is at its lowest point since 1949, is another reason why growth has remained subdued in the post-financial crisis world.
A secular bear market lasts anywhere between five and 25 years. The average length is around 17 years. During that time, typical bull and bear market cycles can occur. But asset prices will return to the original level. There is often a lot of debate as to whether we are in a secular bull or bear market. For example, some investors believe we are currently in a bear market that began in 2000.
Forget the porn star scandals and possible Russian collusion in an election over fifteen months ago. Most Americans don’t give a damn about either but from turning on cable news, you would think that’s all that is happening in the world. Cable news is out for ratings and those kind of things sell. What you won’t see much of are some of the harsh realities facing Americans and preventing us from becoming truly great. Read More
There is considerable confusion between the verbs bear and bare. It may help to remember that the verb bare has only one meaning: "to uncover," as in "bare your shoulders" and "a dog baring its teeth." All other uses of the verb are for bear: "bearing children," "the right to bear arms," "bearing up under the stress/weight," "can't bear the thought," "bear south," "it bears repeating."
Beyond all this, there is the impulsiveness of our beloved President Trump who actually does what he says he would do in his campaign. Until the end of January 2018, Wall Street thought he could be controlled and would only do the things they approved of. But Trump has his own agenda. So, now Wall Street has no choice but to worry about a trade war that could easily escalate. Why do you think so many of Trump’s advisors have recently left or been fired? They wanted him to be more cautious. But Trump wanted to keep the faith with his base and put tariffs up on steel, etc. to protect American manufacturing. Never mind, the consequences of Smoot-Hawley in 1930 when Europe was already suffering. N ever mind, the fact that so very much of what we buy in the US now comes from China. We cannot possibly start to make all the things we now import. Never mind, how much consumer prices will rise. And never mind the fact that successful sales of US Treasuries to finance our national debt depends on China. Trump’s economic nationalism is a very abrupt change from the last 30+ years of internationalism. Wall Street has grown rich and fat on such internationalism. Stock prices, especially for the big multi-nationals in the DJIA and the NASDAQ can only make adjustments to Trump’s tariffs by declining. Even if Trump backs away from his tariffs’ plan, Wall Street cannot feel quite safe. Trump has shown he wants to get votes in the “Rust-belt” at Wall Street’s expense. Horrors!
This week’s collapse of the Turkish lira has dominated the headlines, and it is widely reported that this and other emerging market currencies are in trouble because of the withdrawal of dollar liquidity. There are huge quantities of footloose dollars betting against these weak currencies, as well as commodities and gold, on the basis the long-expected squeeze on dollar liquidity is finally upon us. 
At 10 times revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. That assumes I can get that by my shareholders. That assumes I have zero cost of goods sold, which is very hard for a computer company. That assumes zero expenses, which is really hard with 39,000 employees. That assumes I pay no taxes, which is very hard. And that assumes you pay no taxes on your dividends, which is kind of illegal. And that assumes with zero R&D for the next 10 years, I can maintain the current revenue run rate. Now, having done that, would any of you like to buy my stock at $64? Do you realize how ridiculous those basic assumptions are? You don’t need any transparency. You don’t need any footnotes. What were you thinking? Read More
Most people are aware that historically there have been speculative bubbles. Some of them can even name a few – the South Sea bubble, tulips, and more recently dot-coms. Some historians can go even further, quoting the famous account by Charles Mackay of the South Sea bubble, the tulip mania and the Mississippi bubble, published in the mid-nineteenth century.

Meeker provided an eloquent defense of short sales. He argued that the bears stabilize prices by providing liquidity and creating demand – by covering their shorts – in a falling market. Shorting was not illegitimate, in his view. “A short sale,” wrote Meeker, “represents a debt contracted in goods rather than money.” In this it was similar to many other business contracts.
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Arnott is founder, chairman and CEO of Research Affiliates LLC, an investment advisory firm. Dubbed the "godfather" of smart beta investing, per Money, he also is a portfolio manager for PIMCO. In 2007, Arnott foresaw the coming recession that would become known as the Great Recession, the biggest downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Arnott says stocks are simply too expensive and that there is no reason for longterm investors to be optimistic.  "In the United States, there's not enough fear...One bad thing could cause a downturn...The market is just too expensive...At any point it might roll over and die," Money quotes him as saying.


All international problems are currently suspended, awaiting the results of the US mid-term elections. The partisans of the old international order are gambling on a change of majority in Congress and a rapid destitution of President Trump. If the man in the White House holds fast, the protagonists of the war against Syria will have to admit defeat and move on to other battle fields. On the other hand, if Donald Trump should lose the elections, the war on Syria will immediately be revived by the United Kingdom. Read More

"A downtick in bonds is not same as a downtick in equities," said Mike Loewengart, vice president of investment strategy at E-Trade Financial. He said even in previous rate increase environments, when bond income is received and reinvested, that can keep returns in positive territory and help investors get through fixed-income volatility. "Maybe it is the end of a 30-year bull run in bonds, but I still think if rates rise gradually, most diversified fixed income portfolios should fair OK."
Revenue bonds: Principal and interest are secured by revenues derived from tolls, charges or rents from the facility built with the proceeds of the bond issue. Public projects financed by revenue bonds include toll roads, bridges, airports, water and sewage treatment facilities, hospitals and subsidized housing. Many of these bonds are issued by special authorities created for that particular purpose.[1]
I’ll admit I was somewhat skeptical when you claimed it was the “best conference,” but after last year, I couldn’t praise the SIC enough to my colleagues. (I think they actually got tired of me talking about it.) As a principle, I try NOT to attend the same events but rather experience new and different forums. However, I couldn’t resist returning for the SIC and have once again talked the ears off my fellow traders on the desk.
I have had an interesting life, in the course of my retirement from business; my retirement happened somewhat by chance, in the year 1988; one Friday evening I presided a meeting of a group directors of Elektra, a Mexican company the property of my father and myself. We had had some 500 of these meetings in past years; they took place every two weeks. My son Richard was present, having been with the company since 1980. (He had arrived in 1980 from Dallas, Texas, looking for a post at Elektra, after being fired from his job  – he had called his supervisor a fool, if not something worse. He was probably right in his judgment of his superior officer’s decisions, but of course saying what you think is not the best way to get along in business). Read More
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebookhttps://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/Sacrificed on the Altar of Political CorrectnessI want to spend the rest of this podcast talking about politics; in particular, what's going on with Brett Kavanaugh and his fading chances of sitting on the Supreme Court. It appears that he may be sacrificed on ...…
To the surprise of many investors, the precious metals have rallied while the broader markets continue to sell-off.  Currently, both gold and silver are solidly in the green while the major indexes were all the red following a huge sell-off yesterday.  The Dow Jones Index has lost nearly 1,000 points in the past two days while the gold price is up nearly $25.
That is the purpose of this article. It can be bewildering when a casual observer tries to follow global events, something made more difficult by editorial policies at news outlets, and the commentary from most analysts, who are, frankly, ill-informed. Accordingly, this article addresses the topic that dominates our future. The most important players in the great game of geopolitics are America and China. Read More
ANSWER: The entire world has NEVER been on the gold standard simultaneously. Asia was on a silver standard while the West was on a gold standard. Above is the first coin struck in Hong Kong in 1866 which was the Hong Kong Dollar. The West struck Trade Dollars during the 19th century to pay for goods from Asia and they were silver – never gold. Here is an example of both the British and American trade dollars used in payments particularly with China. The Spanish 8 reals Americans called Pillar Dollars and slicing this up into pieces like a pie gave rise to the term for a Piece of Eight – 2 bits, 4 bits, 8 bits a dollar.  Read More
I’ve never liked talking about the future. The Q&A sessions always end up more like parlor games, where I’m asked to opine on the latest technology buzzwords as if they were ticker symbols for potential investments: blockchain, 3D printing, CRISPR. The audiences are rarely interested in learning about these technologies or their potential impacts beyond the binary choice of whether or not to invest in them. But money talks, so I took the gig. Read More
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/Strong Dollar Policy?There used to be a lot of talk about the so-called Strong Dollar Policy. We had the Strong Dollar Policy when Bill Clinton was President, George Bush; I guess when Barack Obama was President, as well. I've talked about it, I've written abo ...…
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As the blame game over the alleged chemical attack in Syria escalates ahead of what is expected to be an imminent, if contained, air strike campaign by the US, UK and/or France against Syria, on Friday morning, Russia’s foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said Moscow had “irrefutable evidence” that the attack – which allegedly killed more than 40 people in an April 7 chemical weapons strike on the former rebel outpost of Douma  -was staged with the help of a foreign secret service.

Last week, we shined a spotlight on a crack in the monetary system that few people outside of Switzerland (and not many inside either) were aware of. There is permanent gold backwardation measured in Swiss francs. Everyone knows that the Swiss franc has a negative interest rate, but so far as we know, Keith is the only one who predicted this would lead to its collapse (and he was quite early, having written that in January 2015).

Peter Schiff is an internationally recognized economist specializing in the foreign equity, currency and gold markets. Mr. Schiff made his name as President and Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital. He frequently delivers lectures at major economic and investment conferences, and is quoted often in the print media, including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Barron’s, BusinessWeek, Time and Fortune. His broadcast credits include regular guest appearances on CNBC, Fox Business, CNN, MSNBC, and Fox News Channel, as well as hosting his own weekly radio show, Wall Street Unspun. He’s also the author of the bestselling books: Crash Proof 2.0, The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets:, and The Real Crash: America’s Coming Bankruptcy – How to Save Yourself and Your Country.


The accompanying chart shows the losses of the median newsletter’s model portfolio in the 1987, 2000-02, and 2007-09 bear markets. For context, consider that the average bear market since 1900 has produced a 31% loss for the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +1.46% The median newsletter’s losses in those more recent three bear markets have been minus 23%, minus 28%, and minus 43%, respectively.

“We’re not overly worried about this being the early legs of a large-scale market correction in conjunction with a recession,” Joe Mallen, chief investment officer at Helios Quantitative Research, said Wednesday. “I don’t see anything so dire from an economic data perspective that will create a 20% plus drawdown. I think this is very technical in nature.”
The living symbol of Smokey Bear was a five-pound, three month old American black bear cub who was found in the spring of 1950 after the Capitan Gap fire, a wildfire that burned in the Capitan Mountains of New Mexico.[27][28][11] Smokey had climbed a tree to escape the blaze, but his paws and hind legs had been burned. Local crews who had come from New Mexico and Texas to fight the blaze removed the cub from the tree.[11]
Once upon a time, there was a little-known energy company called Enron. In its 16-year life, it went from being dubbed America’s most innovative company by Fortune Magazine to being the poster child of American corporate deceit. Using a classic recipe for book-cooking, Enron ended up in bankruptcy with jail time for those involved. Its shareholders lost $74 billionin the four years leading up to its bankruptcy in 2001.
Although the U.S. Forest Service fought wildfires long before World War II, the war brought a new importance and urgency to the effort. At the time, most able-bodied men were already serving in the armed forces and none could be spared to fight forest fires. The Forest Service began using colorful posters to educate Americans about the dangers of forest fires in the hope that local communities, with the most accurate information, could prevent them from starting in the first place.[7][16]
Appeal Case: “I was not sure where to find help until I found your financial aid appeal page. Your service is exceptional, and that is rare these days. Just one of your strategies saved us over $8,000. I have told many people about what you are doing to help us, and I intend to tell everyone that I meet. Most of my acquaintances also have children in college. Thank you.”  –Sherry H. Maryland [ Appeal Award $29,000]
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/Strong Dollar Policy?There used to be a lot of talk about the so-called Strong Dollar Policy. We had the Strong Dollar Policy when Bill Clinton was President, George Bush; I guess when Barack Obama was President, as well. I've talked about it, I've written abo ...…
The gold price already bottomed, says InvestingHaven’s research team. The upside potential in gold’s price near term is 7 percent while gold’s price may rise 12 pct into 2019. Best case, though, if gold would get a bid with global markets continuing their sell-off we may see 25% upside. That’s when silver miners will do exceptionally well, similar to their epic rally in 2016.
The bears of the early 1930s had a mixed fate. Joseph Kennedy, the father of JFK, was appointed the first chairman of the SEC shortly after participating in a bear pool in the stock of Libby Owens Ford. Roosevelt apparently decided he needed a fox to guard the hen coop. Jesse Livermore had a less happy time. He lost an estimated $32 million anticipating a bull market which never arrived. In 1934, Livermore was declared bankrupt. He blew his brains out in the washroom of the Sherry- Netherlands hotel in 1940. The note he left behind, repeated over and over again: “My life has been a failure. My life has been a failure…”
Quite simply, I think stock investors looked at the surfacing of real problems in their favorite FAANG stocks and, so, failed this time to find any fun in the frivolous fiction of government factoids. GDP reportage has been fake for years, and it is no less fake under Trump than under any other president. Fake is where you find it. You can find it as much on Fox as on CNN.  Read More
Jeffrey thinks that we are headed into a much tougher environment because “the Central Bank balance sheets will stop growing at the beginning of 2018, [and] the liquidity that’s helped drive the market is going to reverse. That is not favorable for risk markets.” As such, Jeffrey and his team at DoubleLine have been de-risking their portfolios and have cautioned investors to do the same.
*** Since the attacks, we at the Daily Reckoning – as stunned as the next group of conspirators – have been asking a question similar to one I’m sure has crossed your mind at least once: “Why?” The Sovereign Society’s John Pugsley offers one point of view: “It is not hatred for freedom or materialism that caused terrorists to sacrifice their lives.” Pugsley quotes Joseph Sobran: “You delude and flatter yourself if you think someone hates you for your virtues.”
I am sure you remember the lead up to Q1 2016. The US economy and stock market were transitioning from a Goldilocks environment and narrowly avoiding a bear market while the rest of the world was still battling deflation. Precious metals and commodities were in the dumper and try though US and global central banks might, they seemed to fail to woo the inflation genie out of its bottle at every turn.

Good read. I have read several of Mr. Kratter's works. His rules for trading keeps you focused and I have learned some good lessons from each of them. While I am not much of a 'short seller', I have made some decent money recently trading put options. If we are headed for a bear market this is a good book to help you make some money while others are just gritting their teeth!
As with many other industries, the reality of supply and demand impacts every aspect of the financial market. It is predicted that in 2018 the United States Treasury will have net new issue of $1.3 trillion in treasury bonds and the national debt will continue to rise. This new influx of debt will need to be purchased by the market, but the Federal Reserve is reducing the amount that it’s purchasing – their bond holdings will decrease by 10% over the next year. International buyers will become an even more important cog in the wheel, and David comprehensively explores the global supply and demand structure on this episode of Money For the Rest of Us. You also don’t want to miss his bear market investment suggestions, so be sure to listen.
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