Unlike the last credit crisis when the dollar rose sharply in a general panic for safety, on the next crisis, the dollar is likely to fall substantially. The reason is that foreign ownership of dollar investments (typically in US Treasuries) appears greatly overextended, and an additional $4 trillion of liquidity is in the wrong (non-US) hands. This is likely to be unloaded during a general credit crisis, driving the dollar lower. Read More

Erik:     Now this massive, massive accumulation of debt in the United States – people like you and I can say this is crazy, the rate that it’s happening at – but, holy cow, look at China. I mean, they’re in a whole different category of rate of accumulation of national debt. It seems to me like they’re trying to almost race the United States to who can get more over-indebted faster.
This study tends to support the general notion that now is the time for investors to be asking questions about the viability of the long term trend.  It also supports the analysis that the bull market started in the 2011 time frame. It shows us consistently that it is the trend from 2011 that traders need to keep a watchful eye upon as well as the 50 week EMA.  From a trading point of view, it's quite helpful to have some clear criteria for recognizing the end of a trend.  In that light, while there is likely to be a rally in the primary indices, when that comes it is likely that some key sectors will not participate or will participate marginally.  The same underperforming sectors are likely to break down first, giving advanced warning that the general market will be soon to follow.
Unlike new issue stocks that are brought to market with price restrictions until the deal is sold, most municipal bonds are free to trade at any time once they are purchased by the investor. Professional traders regularly trade and re-trade the same bonds several times a week. A feature of this market is a larger proportion of smaller retail investors compared to other sectors of the U.S. securities markets. Some municipal bonds, often with higher risk credits, are issued subject to transfer restrictions.

Wild rumors spread of bear raids, of fabulous profits made by short-sellers, and of political conspiracies hatched by foreigners interested in bringing down the market, the dollar and the U.S. economy. In early 1932, the Philadelphia Public Ledger maintained that “European capitalists had supplied much of the cash needed to engineer the greatest bear raid in history. These proverbially open-handed and trusting gentleman had accepted the leadership of New York’s adroit Democratic financier, Bernard Baruch.” Baruch, the best known short-seller in the country, shrugged off the charge.
Food programs are widely considered welfare to the people using them. In fact they are welfare to the food industry: it is a direct transfer of government (tax) bling to the pockets of General Mills, General Foods, Cargill, ADM, Monsanto, and the other Big Food/Big Pharma companies. It is tax bling to the grocers as well. These companies can keep marking up food for profit, squeezing those who pay money for it AND pay taxes so those who can’t afford the food can give Munchy Bucks to their local food vendor, and those dollars are credited to the food industry.

They’ll spend tens of thousands on a down payment. Go in debt to the order of hundreds of thousands. Or stay in their sinking real estate while shelling out thousands every month that they could be saving. But they’ll never give my question any serious brainpower and at least think through the consequences before committing themselves to eternal debt peonage.
According to Richard Earle, author of The Art of Cause Marketing, the Smokey Bear campaign is among the most powerful and enduring of all public service advertising: "Smokey is simple, strong, straightforward. He's a denizen of those woods you're visiting, and he cares about preserving them. Anyone who grew up watching Bambi realizes how terrifying a forest fire can be. But Smokey wouldn't run away. Smokey's strong. He'll stay and fight the fire if necessary, but he'd rather have you douse it and cover it up so he doesn't have to."[54]
Not only does David explain the idea behind a bear market on this episode of Money For the Rest of Us, he also examines nominal yields and how they can be dissected into the expected path of future short-term interest rates and term premiums. While the drivers behind climbing interest rates cannot always be observed directly, these two main factors shed light on just how high interest rates could climb in the coming years. Also, learn how the Federal Reserve estimates the path of short-term of interest rates and why term premiums are countercyclical and tend to rise when there is a great deal of investor uncertainty.
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