In today's low interest rate environment, equity is being retired by many companies through stock buybacks. Many mergers are still being done with debt...since it is less expensive than issuing stock. Also, I would argue that the value of a well run company with good finances and a rising dividend stream is far greater, per se, than it has been historically.

This week, gold rose slightly on balance, while silver maintained its climb out of a deep pit. In early-morning European trade today (Friday) gold was trading at $1199, up $7 from last Friday’s close. Silver was unchanged on the week at $14.50, but as can be seen on our headline chart, silver’s relative performance since the mid-September lows is encouraging.
This system, defined as the Liberal International Order, is the framework of rules, alliances, and institutions that is credited with the relative peace and prosperity the world has enjoyed since 1945. So, if the order has lost support, will the world plunge into beggar-thy-neighbor protectionism? Worse, without the threat of military intervention by the US and its allies, will regional powers start to challenge one another?
Revenue bonds: Principal and interest are secured by revenues derived from tolls, charges or rents from the facility built with the proceeds of the bond issue. Public projects financed by revenue bonds include toll roads, bridges, airports, water and sewage treatment facilities, hospitals and subsidized housing. Many of these bonds are issued by special authorities created for that particular purpose.[1]
But… with so many stocks that were overvalued at the start of the year… it’s understandable that many were selling to take some profit. But the last couple weeks have been an over reaction (as with Amazon, FB, etc…along with the uncertainty with China…fyi: China is well aware that they’ve been trading on our market and paying way too little of their fair share of tariffs for way too long. So… I’m certain there will be some sort of compromise to continue trade). But… all this has caused the amateur investor to panic lately and resulted in a greater sell off than what many companies deserve. A logical investor/trader will research and understand the fundamentals of the companies he/she is invested in and know their worth (yes… some companies are still overvalued… ) but the pajama trader should never sell in a panic. If they do, then they should sell and stay out of the Market altogether. Because this has been just a vicious Market Correction as of late… but it’s not a Bear Market. The unemployment rate is too low and the economy is gaining strength overall…and the stock market is far from euphoric. If you’re young you always have time on your side for recovering on any losses. If you’re over 60 consider buying some well valued companies who pay good dividends (but, be careful, don’t fall for those ridiculously high dividend stocks like 7% and higher… they’re often paying a high dividend to entice people to invest in what is probably a failing company.) A 3% dividend can really be a nice way to earn income while waiting for a company to rebound in the stock market.

RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebookhttps://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/Making the Rich PayJulia Salazar, another Democratic Socialist defeated Martin Dilan in the NY Senate primary. The only reference to taxes on her website was to "make the rich pay their fair share". That's it. Nothing about what specifically she wants to raise, ...…
This reliance on US strength hasn’t been a problem for the past seven decades, but times are changing. Since the financial crisis, the US has been less willing to bear the costs needed to be the guarantor of the international order. Niall highlights the inaction over Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, and the “little more than cosmetic” strikes against Syria as signs that the US is starting to take a more ambivalent approach to global conflicts.
The sneaky thing about Amazon’s increased dominance in so many key aspects of our lives is that much of the perniciousness is hidden. No one’s going to tell you about all the retailers who have gotten pressured or destroyed via its tactics while you’re happily clicking “add to cart” and smiling about 2-day free shipping. In this sense, it can be best compared to the evils of factory farming. Most people just simply have no idea about the immense damage going on behind the scenes as they indulge in incredible convenience and what looks like a good deal.

A spook who somehow got onto the Trump transition team… how did that happen at all? I think he was spying FOR THE RUSSIANS (and maybe the DNC) to help get old easily manipulated Hillary “Re-set Button” Clinton elected! The entire premise of the Muh Russian conspiracy makes absolutely no sense. Why on earth would the Russians want POTUS Trump in the White House???
In Bear Markets, when wild volatility swings become the norm, Swing-trading allows you to hold on to your gains. That's why we proactively guide you to Swing Trade, by setting and regularly updating buy/sell limits to lock in profits and buy back advantageously. In this way we strive to  progressively reduce average cost and augment your profit. Good-till-cancelled limit orders allow you to set them and forget them, until they either execute, or get cancelled. In less than 30-min/day you view new, or adjusted trading signals flagged in red. 

It depends on whether they need short-term cash at their disposal. For millennials just getting going on their 401ks, it's probably a good time to boost contributions or shift the mix of funds in retirement accounts to be more aggressive (younger investors should usually be fairly aggressive anyway, since they have decades to recover from short-term bear markets).


A second migrant caravan has been attempting to breach Mexico’s border with Guatemala, and the media is reporting that some migrants in that second caravan are armed with “guns” and “bombs”.  This is a very serious claim, and it needs to either be confirmed or retracted, because it is not helpful to have unconfirmed reports spreading like wildfire on social media.  There have been endless discussions about these migrant caravans on all the major news networks in recent weeks, and they are getting so much attention that they are almost overshadowing the midterm elections which are going to happen next week.  And if this latest report is true, concern about these caravans is certain to reach a fever pitch…Read More
We have not seen Wall Street this jumpy since just before the great financial crisis of 2008.  As I have explained so many times before, when the waters are calm and there is low volatility, markets tend to go up.  And when the waters are choppy and volatility starts to spike, markets tend to go down.  That is why the behavior that we have been witnessing from investors during the first two quarters of 2018 is so alarming.  A high level of market turnover is often a sign of big trouble ahead, and according to Bloomberg our financial markets “are churning at the fastest rate since 2008″…Read More
I bought this book in early 2011. Finally read it all. This book, while obviously aimed at a way of investing the author has specialized in, is well written. And anyone who lives on a fixed income has been long aware of the actual inflation rate. Of course, it is too late to do anything about incompetent or ineffectual IRA managers, but this is one of the few books I have read that made sense to me and offered even a little hope. I don't swallow it whole, because I am out of my depth, but it is obvious he knows a lot and apparently is successful at it.
Upon his death on November 9, 1976,[27] Smokey's remains were returned by the government to Capitan, New Mexico, and buried at what is now the Smokey Bear Historical Park,[33] operated by New Mexico State Forestry. This facility is now a wildfire and Smokey interpretive center. In the garden adjacent to the interpretive center is the bear's grave.[11][34] The plaque at his grave reads, "This is the resting place of the first living Smokey Bear ... the living symbol of wildfire prevention and wildlife conservation."[35]
One of the primary reasons municipal bonds are considered separately from other types of bonds is their special ability to provide tax-exempt income. Interest paid by the issuer to bond holders is often exempt from gross income for federal income tax purposes, as well as state or local taxes depending on the state in which the issuer is located, subject to certain restrictions. Bonds issued for certain purposes are subject to the alternative minimum tax as an item of tax preference.[1]

I have had a request from Mrs Macleod to write down in simple terms what on earth is going on in the world, and why is it that I think gold is so important in this context. She-who-must-be-obeyed does not fully share my interest in the subject. An explanation of the big picture is also likely to be useful to many of my readers and their spouses, who do not share an enduring interest in geopolitics either. 

It’s important to remember that a bull market is characterized by a general sense of optimism and positive growth which tends to catalyze greed. A bear market is associated with a general sense of decline which tends to instill fear in the hearts of stockholders. As Rule #1 investors, we act opposite of the investing public – when it comes to bull vs bear markets – and capitalize on their emotions by finding quality stocks at low prices during bear markets and selling during bull markets when they’ve regained their value.
The rise of protectionism has serious implications for investors. We have become used to companies being able to break into new markets and the idea of “multinational corporations.” This may not be the case going forward. Investors will have to pay a lot more attention to where the companies they choose to invest in operate, and where their sales come from. In short, protectionism is on the rise and investors must prepare accordingly.

The global financial crisis of 2008 was essentially caused by excessive leverage, a loss of confidence in real estate credit and a resulting sudden collapse of liquidity in the financial system. The central bank response was to lower interest rates and flood markets with liquidity. Since then, debt loads have increased more than 30% and the percentage of higher risk credit has also grown sharply. Many analysts believe that another crisis is possible due to a combination of enormous leverage and deteriorating credit standards. What will happen to gold if we have another financial crisis?

On Tuesday night all of the speculation about the midterm elections will mercifully be over, and there is one potential outcome that is being called a “disaster” for the financial markets.  Over the past couple of years, stock prices have soared to unprecedented levels, and Wall Street has seemed to greatly appreciate the pro-business environment that President Trump has attempted to cultivate.  Regulations have been rolled back, corporate taxes have been reduced significantly, and many corporate executives no longer fear that the federal government is out to get them.  But after Tuesday, everything could be different. Read More


RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebookhttps://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/Dovish Speech Given by Jerome PowellThe catalyst for the rise in gold and the decline in the dollar, I believe, was the dovish speech given by Jerome Powell today in Jackson Hole. Whether or not the speech is perceived as dovishly as I believe it is, I think we ...…

Likewise, the entrepreneur needs low-entropy “channels” to turn the idea in his mind into a product or service. George defines these predictable carriers as “The rule of law, the maintenance of order, the defense of property rights, the reliability and restraint of regulation, the transparency of accounts, the stability of money, and a level of taxation commensurate with a predictable role of government.”

When the financial media continuously repeat an opinion as fact, it spawns a mainstream narrative, which produces a powerful effect on investor psychology. One mainstream narrative, repeated with certainty, is low interest rates cause high stock market valuations, which is supported by the public statements of investment luminaries such as Warren Buffett.


Unlike the last credit crisis when the dollar rose sharply in a general panic for safety, on the next crisis, the dollar is likely to fall substantially. The reason is that foreign ownership of dollar investments (typically in US Treasuries) appears greatly overextended, and an additional $4 trillion of liquidity is in the wrong (non-US) hands. This is likely to be unloaded during a general credit crisis, driving the dollar lower. Read More

Stocks with relatively low debt and lower P/E ratios are Corning Inc. (NYSE: GLW), Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (NASDAQ: BBBY), American Express (NYSE: AXP), Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS), Whirlpool Corp. (NYSE: WHR), PVH Corp. (NYSE: PVH), and CVS Corp. (NYSE: CVS). However, the average P/E ratio of this list is still at 13 which implies just a 7% long term return. For those who want more, the best thing to do is to look for special situations and emerging markets.

Two important institutional changes since the late 1960s also have affected the composition of financial asset holdings of households. One is the growing prevalence of pension funds. Since 1960, the share of financial assets that pension funds comprise grew from a little under 7% to 27%. This growth has been due in part to the introduction of 401k, 403b, and Keogh accounts that have allowed households to make tax deductible contributions to retirement plans with significant control over the disposition of those investments. In addition, many large employers have switched from defined-benefit to defined-contribution retirement plans, again allowing households to decide how much of their retirement funds to invest in the stock market. These changes began to accelerate in the 1970s. Prior to these changes, many businesses either adopted “pay-as-you-go” pension plans with no significant contributions to the stock market, or restricted their investments to ultra-safe assets, such as government securities.

Every January, to coincide with the World Economic Forum in Davos, Oxfam tells us how much richer the world’s richest people have got. In 2016, their report showed that the wealthiest 62 individuals owned the same amount as the bottom half of the world’s population. This year, that number had dropped to 42: three-and-half-dozen people with as much stuff as three-and-a-half billion.
Dark Ages is not a silly username—it is a compelling fear that we are repeating the mistakes of all great civilizations, with arrogance that we can merely crush nations that will not continue to take our paper for their tangible goods. I don’t know whether folks dismiss this ranting as nonsense or actually are concerned that this is where we are headed. I cannot imagine a rainbow behind this cloud, although I was in North Carolina recently and saw a beautiful rainbow to the east, while death and destruction were occurring underneath that storm.

In Bear Markets, when wild volatility swings become the norm, Swing-trading allows you to hold on to your gains. That's why we proactively guide you to Swing Trade, by setting and regularly updating buy/sell limits to lock in profits and buy back advantageously. In this way we strive to  progressively reduce average cost and augment your profit. Good-till-cancelled limit orders allow you to set them and forget them, until they either execute, or get cancelled. In less than 30-min/day you view new, or adjusted trading signals flagged in red. 
Financial and precious metals expert Egon von Greyerz (EvG) vaults gold for clients at two secret locations on two continents. EvG is sounding the alarm about record breaking global risk and warns, “With this risk, people have to take insurance. This business is not a business, it is a passion, and I have a passion to help the few people that see the risks. . . . I think your best wealth preservation will be gold.”
Goldman did mention that the nine-year bull run was mostly due to loose monetary policy and a spate of fiscal stimulus measures. However, September is a month when the Fed is widely anticipated to raise rates for the third time this year. That certainly doesn’t bode well for the economy. Lest we forget, an accommodative monetary policy helped the market recently complete the longest-ever bull run (read more: Wall Street's Longest Bull Run Shapes Winners & Losers).

For Smokey’s 40th anniversary in 1984, he was honored with a U.S. postage stamp that pictured a cub hanging onto a burned tree. It was illustrated by Rudy Wendelin.[50] The commercial for his 50th anniversary portrayed woodland animals about to have a surprise birthday party for Smokey, with a cake with candles. When Smokey comes blindfolded, he smells smoke, not realizing it is birthday candles for his birthday. He uses his shovel to destroy the cake. When he takes off his blindfold, he sees that it was a birthday cake for him and apologizes.[51] That same year, a poster of the bear with a cake full of extinguished candles was issued. It reads, 'Make Smokey's Birthday Wish Come True.'[52]


Upon his death on November 9, 1976,[27] Smokey's remains were returned by the government to Capitan, New Mexico, and buried at what is now the Smokey Bear Historical Park,[33] operated by New Mexico State Forestry. This facility is now a wildfire and Smokey interpretive center. In the garden adjacent to the interpretive center is the bear's grave.[11][34] The plaque at his grave reads, "This is the resting place of the first living Smokey Bear ... the living symbol of wildfire prevention and wildlife conservation."[35]

The DJIA actually did a lot better than a lot of the other averages.  The Dow Jones transports were down just over 4%; 445 points.  the NASDAQ was down over 4% as well - 315 points. Weakness across the board in the stock market today.  And it's not just the homebuilders and the autos. I've been talking about those sectors as leading indicators and, yes, many of those stocks made new 52-week lows today as well. But they were not the worst performers on the day.


Monetary policy also continues to support economic growth because the real federal funds rate (after inflation) is zero, points out Darrell Riley, a strategist at T. Rowe Price. “The economy has a lot of momentum going into next year and monetary policy is still stimulative,” he says. “The economic cycle may go longer than we think. And a lot longer than we think.”
Dan Caplinger has been a contract writer for the Motley Fool since 2006. As the Fool's Director of Investment Planning, Dan oversees much of the personal-finance and investment-planning content published daily on Fool.com. With a background as an estate-planning attorney and independent financial consultant, Dan's articles are based on more than 20 years of experience from all angles of the financial world. Follow @DanCaplinger
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Russiagate originated in a conspiracy between the military/security complex, the Clinton-controlled Democratic National Committee, and the liberal/progressive/left. The goal of the military/security complex is to protect its out-sized budget and power by preventing President Trump from normalizing relations with Russia. Hillary and the DNC want to explain away their election loss by blaming a Trump/Putin conspiracy to steal the election. The liberal/progressive/left want Trump driven from office. 
Furthermore, at their December meeting, the Fed hinted that they are willing to let inflation run a little over their 2% target. Although they upgraded GDP growth, their forecast for three hikes in 2017 remained unchanged. Given that Janet Yellen once said, “To me, a wise policy is occasionally to let inflation rise even when inflation is running above target,” this is no surprise.

Misguided Tweet About PfizerAnother misguided tweet that came out today from the President had to do with drugs:Pfizer & others should be ashamed that they have raised drug prices for no reason. They are merely taking advantage of the poor & others unable to defend themselves, while at the same time giving bargain basement prices to other count ...…
Are the metals markets ending a price correction in unison and preparing for a massive price advance? This is the question we asked our research team to investigate and their findings may help skilled traders identify great opportunities in the future. This multi-part research article will share our most recent opinion about the metals markets as well as share some critical new data that can shed some light into what we believe will become a massive upside price rally in the metals markets. Let's get into the data. Read More

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Basically, the strategy is to go long unless the unemployment rate is rising and the price trend is falling. Unemployment is rising if the reported rate is above its trailing twelve-month moving average and price trend is falling if the S&P 500 is below its trailing ten-month moving average. “Livermore” found that this indicator beats all others over the period from 1930 to 2016.
The first part of my answer is technical, what do the charts show. Well, a normal 50% DJIA retracement of its big gains from January 2016 to January 2018 would take this index down to 21070 and exactly fulfill the minimum requirement of a bear market, i.e. that the DJI falls 20%. The DJI now stands a little above 23500, about 12% down from its peak.
A second migrant caravan has been attempting to breach Mexico’s border with Guatemala, and the media is reporting that some migrants in that second caravan are armed with “guns” and “bombs”.  This is a very serious claim, and it needs to either be confirmed or retracted, because it is not helpful to have unconfirmed reports spreading like wildfire on social media.  There have been endless discussions about these migrant caravans on all the major news networks in recent weeks, and they are getting so much attention that they are almost overshadowing the midterm elections which are going to happen next week.  And if this latest report is true, concern about these caravans is certain to reach a fever pitch…Read More

Shall I give you the time frames and % of price cuts done by various lenders in this area to dump the REO’s? They are so ver ver predictable …… 4-6 weeks to first cut of 9.87 -11.11%, another 4 -6 weeks and another cut of antoher 7/5 -10%,….another 6 weeks and now they are 23 -30% of the original list……. ANd they always end up taking offers that are 7 -15% off the list price du jour….
Now the Bruce and Nellie Ohr syory is actually funny and a complete novel yet it digs to the heart and the real meat of the deep tentacles these rascals were using… The Ohr story is the best proof yet and I will never believe Sessions and company did not know all this long ago. Like before he recused……These people are like impacted infected wisdom teeth that need pulling and maybe cracking with a hammer first to get it all out….
One of the most commonly asked questions among market participants and non-participants alike is, “What will cause the stock market to stop rising?” Normally, investors would be thrilled at the prospect of a perpetual rise in equity prices. Yet, with so few direct participants nowadays compared to former years, there is a growing desire among many for a major decline which will allow non-participants to buy stocks at a much lower price. As we’ll discuss in this commentary, that scenario will likely remain a pipe dream for an extended period before it ever becomes a reality. Read More
Inflation is directly responsible for the price increase of everything. That doesn’t mean that all commodities or financial instruments go up in unison, they don’t. But soybeans or silver are not inherently more valuable today than they were a hundred years ago. What has changed is the value of the dollar, not the commodity. Markets search constantly for the correct price. That is why prices go up and prices go down. The market never quite knows what is the right price for anything so it searches until buyers and sellers are satisfied with price and make a transaction. Read More

Washington, D.C., radio station WMAL personality Jackson Weaver served as the primary voice representing Smokey until Weaver's death in October 1992.[64] In June 2008, the Forest Service launched a new series of public service announcements voiced by actor Sam Elliott, simultaneously giving Smokey a new visual design intended to appeal to young adults.[65] Patrick Warburton provides the voice of an anonymous park ranger.[66]
In my News and Views from the Nefarium last Thursday (Jan 11th), I prefaced my remarks about the Franco-Chinese summit by pointing out that these past two weeks have seen some strange stories, stories suggesting that while the war between the great powers for hegemony may not have gone hot, it's at least much warmer than before. For example, in the space of a few days, we've seen (1) the US launch, and as quickly lose, a classified space satellite; (2) ships colliding in the Aegean Sea and in the Persian Gulf, and (3) Russia shoot down over a dozen drones which it claims "Syrian militants" shot at Russian bases. Read More

This chart does a simple comparison of Osaka condo and Tokyo condo prices which does not reflect the entirety of the Japanese housing market.  Yet the path seems very similar.  Large areas with a real estate frenzy that hit high peaks and have struggled ever since.  In fact, if we look at nationwide prices we realize that Japan has seen a 20 year bear market in real estate:
After only a month and a half in office, in a media blitz including press conferences, interviews and public appearances, President Obama, Federal Reserve chair Ben Bernanke,[35][36] Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation chair Sheila Bair[37][38] and Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner[39] rolled out the details of numerous plans to tackle various elements of the economy, and began putting those plans into action. Mortgage rates for homeowners dropped, limits on executive compensation were enacted, regulatory changes were proposed, and the Treasury announced its intention to purchase $1 trillion of troubled bank assets, such as the aforementioned derivatives, and enticing private investors to join them in making similar investments.[40]
The decline of 20% by mid-2008 was in tandem with other stock markets across the globe. On September 29, 2008, the DJIA had a record-breaking drop of 777.68 with a close at 10,365.45. The DJIA hit a market low of 6,443.27 on March 6, 2009, having lost over 54% of its value since the October 9, 2007 high.[6] The bear market reversed course on March 9, 2009, as the DJIA rebounded more than 20% from its low to 7924.56 after a mere three weeks of gains.[7] After March 9, the S&P 500 was up 30% by mid May and over 60% by the end of the year.
Forester is the founder and chief investment officer of the firm that bears his name. He finds nearly every S&P industry sector to be overvalued, and points out that the last two market crashes were sparked by the bottom falling out of a single sector. In the year 2000 it was technology, and in 2008 it was financials. In 2008, he radically reduced his exposure to bank stocks to 5 percent of his portfolio ahead of the crash at a time when financial stocks made up 20% of the S&P 500 index. His prescient move allowed his fund to become "the sole long-only mutual fund in the U.S. to gain in 2008," per Institutional Investor as quoted by Money.

Dr. D: Well, all parts of the system rely on accurate record-keeping. Look at voting rights: we had a security company where 20% more people voted than there were shares. Think you could direct corporate, even national power that way? Without records of transfer, how do you know you own it? Morgan transferred a stock to Schwab but forgot to clear it. Doesn’t that mean it’s listed in both Morgan and Schwab? In fact, didn’t you just double-count and double-value that share? Suppose you fail to clear just a few each day. Before long, compounding the double ownership leads to pension funds owning 2% fake shares, then 5%, then 10%, until stock market and the national value itself becomes unreal. And how would you unwind it?  Read More

According to a recent update by Savills, a global real estate services provider listed on the London Stock Exchange, global real estate values reached a new record of $281 trillion at the end of 2017. That is a BIG number because their last update in April 2017, stated that world real estate values were $228 trillion for 2016 yearend. How could global real estate values jump that much in a year?? Read More

Total sales in November rose 0.9% from a year ago to 1,393,010 new vehicles, according to Autodata, which tracks these sales as they’re reported by the automakers. Sales of cars dropped 8.2%. Sales of trucks – which include SUVs, crossovers, pickups, and vans – rose 6.6%. Strong replacement demand from the hurricane-affected areas in Texas papered over weaknesses elsewhere. As always, there were winners and losers. Read More
During the first half of the year, I repeatedly suggested that most folks lighten up on equities and hold 25% to 50% in cash. That included five consecutive columns on MarketWatch between February and May which discussed different reasons for my thinking. I took quite the verbal thrashing from some commentators that I dare suggest the cyclical bull market was approaching risky levels.
There’s a paradox at the heart of global finance. The U.S. share of the world economy has drifted lower for decades, and now President Trump is retreating from the American chief executive’s traditional role as Leader of the Free World. Yet the U.S. dollar remains, as the saying goes, almighty. “American exceptionalism has never been this stark,” Ruchir Sharma, head of emerging markets and chief global strategist for Morgan Stanley Investment Management, said at a Council on Foreign Relations symposium on Sept. 24. Read More

Robert Mueller is supposed to be investigating Russiagate, which has been shown to be a hoax concocted by former CIA director John Brennan, former FBI director James Comey, and current deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein. As Russiagate is a hoax, Mueller has not been able to produce a shred of evidence of the alleged Trump/Putin plot to hack Hillary’s emails and influence the last presidential election. Read More
I would contest a little bit, Erik, the idea that we have not been monetizing the debt. The Fed, of course, has been monetized. It’s buying federal securities with credit that did not exist before the Fed tapped the relevant numbers on its computer keypad. The Fed has come to own substantial portions both of mortgage-backed securities and of Treasuries securities outstandings.
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