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We have very few people left worldwide who actually lived through the Great Depression.  While I have been told many stories by my grandparents of what it was like to live through the 1930’s and 1940’s, I clearly do not have first-hand experience.  Yet, I would assume that I still have a better understanding of that time period than most of the people reading my words today. Read More
In the days ahead, markets are awaiting potential announcements on the Trump administration's plan to curb Chinese investments in U.S. technology, although messaging on those measures from the White House has proven conflicting. The U.S. is also set to impose an additional 25 percent tariff on $34 billion in Chinese imports on July 6, with duties on a further $16 billion in Chinese goods in the works.
Looking for a home, first time buyer and loan approved but feel a bit nervous about it all. Should we wait a while knowing the market may continue to worsen? Will prices lower enough to buy us something a little better/closer to the city we currently live? Low interest rates now, will they go lower? These concerns/worries and more. Is it just first time buyer jitters? Appreciate your input.
When the market started falling, I was tormented by the prospect that it was just another January 29-February 9 blip. That is, a tease for the bears which would simply result in bitter disappointment. Almost the entire world felt this way, and with good reason: the bears have been cheated for nine solid years, and the BTFD crowd has been winning, so why should it be any different this time? Why not sustain such a thing until, oh, the year 2397? Read More

The drop below the support at $1220 in July was particularly damaging and led to additional liquidation and a capitulation spike down to $1160, despite an overwhelmingly bullish technical picture. The speculative positioning of Comex traders (COT) is usually a reliable contrarian indicator at turning points, and in fact the COT readings are at an extreme bullish level not seen since the beginning of gold’s last secular bull market in 2001. When it looks too good to be true, it usually is. Read More
Wild rumors spread of bear raids, of fabulous profits made by short-sellers, and of political conspiracies hatched by foreigners interested in bringing down the market, the dollar and the U.S. economy. In early 1932, the Philadelphia Public Ledger maintained that “European capitalists had supplied much of the cash needed to engineer the greatest bear raid in history. These proverbially open-handed and trusting gentleman had accepted the leadership of New York’s adroit Democratic financier, Bernard Baruch.” Baruch, the best known short-seller in the country, shrugged off the charge.
A bear market rally is a trend that tends to trick investors into thinking the bull market is on the rise again -- but is, in fact, an upward trend where the stock market posts gains for a couple days or weeks but drops again. There may be several bear market rallies within a regular bear market, but an upward trend can't be considered a bull market until market prices rise 20% or more. 
I live in San Diego and observed a very interesting phenomenon recently in the local real estate market. It looks like in early 2011, one or more banks sent out a small flood of properties on the market. And these properties sat there for a while and got a few price cuts as it became apparent that the demand was just not there. Eventually most of those properties have disappeared (presumably sold, or maybe delisted). And since then, NOTHING. I mean virtually NOTHING has hit the market recently. I assume that potential sellers and banks saw what happened and have decided not to shake loose any more shadow inventory.

The Democratic Party has steered itself into an exquisitely neurotic predicament at a peculiar moment of history. Senator Bernie Sanders set the tone for the shift to full-throated socialism, and the primary election win of 28-year-old Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in a New York congressional district seems to have ratified it. She promised voters free college tuition, single-payer health care, and free housing. Ah, to live in such a utopia!
Kitchen features custom wood plank ceiling decor,wainscot w/ chair rail,crown molding,laminate flooring,great natural light,ceiling fan,ample cabinet/counter space & a breakfast nook w/ half-wall opening to the cozy sunken Family Rm w/ brand new carpet,Energy efficient French Patio Door w/ side lights leads out to the 16x14 custom paver patio perfect for BBQ's & relaxing w/ views of the huge private back yard w/ double layer Emerald Green privacy hedge & pergola w/ slate stepping stone path.

These two early pieces of legislation against short- selling reveal a common theme in the history of the bears. Bubbles occur when speculators drive asset prices far above their intrinsic value. The collapse of a bubble is frequently accompanied by an economic crisis. Who gets the blame for this crisis? Not the bulls, who were responsible for the bubble and the various frauds and manipulations perpetrated to keep shares high, while cashing in their profits.
Bear markets don't announce themselves.  They just happen.  They begin with a sell-off when that most folks dismiss as a brief correction.  As they deepen, the question then becomes how far down will it go.  From my many decades of experience, it's been obvious that most investors are so shocked by what's going on that they do nothing.  Or, at the point of greatest pain (the bottom), they sell.  Very few have the fortitude to view the situation unemotionally and move their money to where the best opportunities are.  During bear markets, the best opportunities are in stocks, since the sell-off has reduced values to much more attractive levels.  But it's the rare investor who has the courage to buy in.  Most are paralyzed by fear.  
At 10 times revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. That assumes I can get that by my shareholders. That assumes I have zero cost of goods sold, which is very hard for a computer company. That assumes zero expenses, which is really hard with 39,000 employees. That assumes I pay no taxes, which is very hard. And that assumes you pay no taxes on your dividends, which is kind of illegal. And that assumes with zero R&D for the next 10 years, I can maintain the current revenue run rate. Now, having done that, would any of you like to buy my stock at $64? Do you realize how ridiculous those basic assumptions are? You don’t need any transparency. You don’t need any footnotes. What were you thinking? Read More
At the time of publication, Michael Brush had no positions in any stocks mentioned in this column. Brush has suggested AMZN and GOOGL in his stock newsletter Brush Up on Stocks. Brush is a Manhattan-based financial writer who has covered business for the New York Times and The Economist Group, and he attended Columbia Business School in the Knight-Bagehot program.
Early in 2018, we detailed Bridgewater's massive short bet against Europe, peaking at a record total short against the EU's biggest companies of around $22 billion. At the time we noted that, since Bridgewater is not known for picking individual stocks, the manager’s position was the result of a view on the wider economy according to James Helliwell, chief investment strategist of the Lex van Dam Trading Academy.

Now a money manager at Janus Henderson, Gross was the co-founder of Pimco, which he helped build into the world’s largest bond fund manager and was dubbed the “bond king” by the financial media. In his note, Gross said he expected the 10-year yield to rise above 2.75% by the end of this year. But he waved away worries that rising yields would deal pain to investors, saying higher yields could sit along with slightly positive returns for bonds.
I think the bottom line is that the hot market is Trump Bashing stories. Pursuing a story that might vindicate him or show him to be the victim of an abusive Obama Administration would bring down the thunder of the entire Left and it would mean basically having to admit that they’ve been butt kissing enablers for the past 2 presidential terms, and that their defenses of Obama and Hillary were really just the soft bigotry of lowered expectations because they were so focused on ‘first woman’ and ‘first black man’ without bothering to listen to what either of them actually said. The cognitive dissonance would then cause the entire left side of the political spectrum of the US to collapse under it’s own weight. Think Inception.
That head of state, President Tsai Ing-Wen placed a congratulatory phone call to President-elect Trump after his election in December of 2016. The acceptance of that phone call made headlines at the time. On Monday, news broke that the USS Antietam, a guided missile cruiser, and the USS Curtis Wright, a guided missile destroyer, had traversed their way through the Taiwan Straight.
When a brushland, woodland, or forested area is not affected by fire for a long period, large quantities of flammable leaves, branches and other organic matter tend to accumulate on the forest floor and above in brush thickets. When a forest fire eventually does occur, the increased fuel creates a crown fire, which destroys all vegetation and affects surface soil chemistry. Frequent and small 'natural' ground fires prevent the accumulation of fuel and allow large, slow-growing vegetation (e.g. trees) to survive.
Early on, people who knew a lot about FISA pointed out that the FBI’s investigation of “russia collusion” was not a criminal investigation but a counterintelligence investigation. I guess the rules for each type are different. For example, in a counterintelligence investigation the goal could be to identify all of the members of a given spy network etc. So, perhaps Page was simply their Trojan Horse / excuse to spy on many many people.

Municipal bonds provide tax exemption from federal taxes and many state and local taxes, depending on the laws of each state. Municipal securities consist of both short-term issues (often called notes, which typically mature in one year or less) and long-term issues (commonly known as bonds, which mature in more than one year). Short-term notes are used by an issuer to raise money for a variety of reasons: in anticipation of future revenues such as taxes, state or federal aid payments, and future bond issuances; to cover irregular cash flows; meet unanticipated deficits; and raise immediate capital for projects until long-term financing can be arranged. Bonds are usually sold to finance capital projects over the longer term.
Three of the four worst bear markets were preceded by high valuation. Among the four worst bear markets with over 40% losses, three of them including the Great Depression in 1929, dot-com bubble in 2000 and subprime crisis in 2007 started with somewhat extreme market valuation. The only exception is the 1973 bear market caused by Arab oil embargo and subsequent recession, but it had an above-average PE to start with as well.
"Now investors are wondering if the housing market's problems will spill over into the economy. 'Housing is the one wild card that could, if it takes consumer confidence down with it, take the economy into a recession,' says James Stack of InvesTech Research... Could the housing troubles yank the broad stock market into a morass just as the tech-stock implosion did in 2000?... 'The parallel is amazing,' Stack says."
As the stock markets continue setting records day after day, many investors are becoming more and more concerned about the potential over-valuation and a possible market correction. The widely-followed cyclically-adjusted price-earnings ratio (Shiller PE) reached 31.2, almost twice as much as the historical average of 16.8. While market valuation may not be a good timing indicator (see If Jeremy Grantham Has a Changing Heart on Value Investing, Should You?),  does it have any impact on the severity of a bear market when it happens?
After the financial crisis and bear market of 2008-09, the Employee Benefit Research Institute did a study of how typical Americans fared with their retirement plan accounts at work. The study found that the average 401(k) account balance plunged by more than 25% during 2008, reflecting stock ownership in most plans. But those who kept participating consistently through 401(k) contributions reaped the rewards of the recovery, as the median balance rose at an impressive 16% annual pace over the four years following the bear market low.
The current narrative from Wall Street and the media is that higher wages, better economic growth and a weaker dollar are stoking inflation. These forces are producing higher interest rates, which negatively affects corporate earnings and economic growth and thus causes concern for equity investors. We think there is a thick irony that, in our over-leveraged economy, economic growth is harming economic growth. Read More
Add another nail into our society. Education isn’t to raise the cultural level of society, it’s ONLY to get a job. SAD. I suppose Taco Bell and MacDonalds should make prep “colleges” for thier future employees. That way they can work their “education” off and not receive wages. My good God, look at how enslaved we are as a people, yet we still vote against our own benefit. Sad. My $20,000 credit card that was used to try and stay in a over-priced home, I walked from, but if it was used to educate me, I would be bound forever. Anyone see a problem here?
The trade war has barely just begun, and yet significant ripple effects are already being felt all across the U.S. economy.  Once thriving businesses are on the verge of failure, workers are being laid off, and some sectors of the economy are witnessing enormous price hikes.  Right now the mainstream media is absolutely fixated on the drama surrounding the recently concluded Trump-Putin summit meeting, but the consequences of this trade war will ultimately be far more important for the lives of most ordinary Americans.  As more tariffs continue to be implemented, this will perhaps be the biggest disruption to the global economic system that we have seen in decades.  Perhaps you have not been affected personally yet, but for many Americans this trade war has changed everything.  For example, just consider the plight of soybean farmer Tim Bardole… Read More
Anya Parampil reports on the US stock market downturn which began on Wednesday, finding that the mini-crash has rippled throughout international markets. Anya talks to Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital, and Bart Chilton, Host of RT’s Boom Bust, to discuss what’s behind the meltdown and whether or not it could evolve into something to more severe.
This week we saw the beginning of the implosion of one of the most crowded trades in the world.  We’re talking, of course, about the short VIX trade.  I say “the beginning” because the short VIX trade is multi-faceted and has deep roots in the business cycle that we’re in.  Like most stories in the market, you need to back up from the tree-line in order to get a view of the forest rather than the trees. 
Three of the four worst bear markets coincided with lengthy recessions. The bear markets of 1929, 1973 and 2007 were accompanied by long recession periods. The perfect example is 1929 bear market, when the three-year-long depression drove the market down by 86%. The exception is 2000 bear market, which was mainly caused by the dot-com bubble burst despite a mild recession in 2001.

Smokey Bear lived at the National Zoo for 26 years. During that time he received millions of visitors as well as so many letters addressed to him (more than 13,000 a week) that in 1964 the United States Postal Service gave him his own ZIP code (20252).[27][32][31] He developed a love for peanut butter sandwiches, in addition to his daily diet of bluefish and trout.[31]
But I want to add some good news for the market. Fortunately, there are big technical differences between now and 1929. The market does not show the extremes signs of internal weakness that it showed back then, or in 1937, 1973, 2000 or 2008 when other tops were made. So talk of a huge Crash I would not take seriously. Still, a 20% decline seems much more likely than not. Will it stop there if the computers that dominate the market start doing what they did in October 1987? I would not count on it. I would not want to bet that Wall Street has learned the lessons from that year. It has been too profitable for Wall Street to forget all those lessons.
A bull market is one marked with strong investor confidence and optimism. It is the opposite of a bear market, during which negatively prevails. In a bull market, stock prices go up. Like the term "bear market," the term "bull market" is derived from the way a bull attacks its prey. Because bulls tend to charge with their horns thrusting upward into the air, periods of rising stock prices are called bull markets. Unfortunately for investors, bull market periods that last too long can give way to bear markets.
George is well versed in several areas, so I’m sure we will get into many intense discussions on topics ranging from technology to finance to economics. Yet, George is only one of the speakers that attendees will get to hear and meet. I really hope you can be there to experience it in person, with me. If you’re ready to learn more about the SIC 2018, and the other speakers who will be there, you can do so, here.
It may seem counterintuitive, but there's plenty of support for the argument that investors are actually doing the right thing by moving into bonds. It is annual portfolio rebalancing season and, given the huge gains in all stock markets around the world last year, portfolio allocations between stocks and bonds would have moved well away from target weightings.
I am primarily a value investor. For me, the algorithms serve as a way to monitor whether my view about valuations is becoming accepted by other market participants. As I have mentioned, I believed earlier this year that we were in the late stage of a cyclical bull market. The markets are finally agreeing and turning the late-cycle bull into an early cycle bear.

In 2005, Congressman Ron Paul (R-Texas) said section 404 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act (2002) which requires chief executive officers to certify the accuracy of financial statements caused capital flight away from the U.S. stock market.[18] Later in 2008, Paul said that the government bailouts of badly run corporations was rewarding bad behavior and punishing good behavior, and that it prevented resources from being allocated away from inefficient uses to more productive uses, and that this lowered the overall amount of wealth across the entire economy.[19]


In their latest report on commodity prices, French bank Natixis outlined why precious metals have a strong couple of years ahead of them as the U.S. economy slows. According to an article on Kitco, the report states that after a remarkable year, the dollar will finally begin to trend lower as the Fed puts the brakes on its tightening cycle. Read More
Now the Bruce and Nellie Ohr syory is actually funny and a complete novel yet it digs to the heart and the real meat of the deep tentacles these rascals were using… The Ohr story is the best proof yet and I will never believe Sessions and company did not know all this long ago. Like before he recused……These people are like impacted infected wisdom teeth that need pulling and maybe cracking with a hammer first to get it all out….
Rate and Review This Podcast on iTuneshttps://www.branddrivendigital.com/how-to-rate-and-review-a-podcast-in-itunes/The Bulls Had No FearToday may be Halloween, but the Bulls had no fear. The U.S. stock markets closed higher today for the second consecutive day - the first time for the month of October. A lot of traders are probably happy that ...…
Take your time! I was in your shoes 6 months ago. I thought I should take advantage of the low interest rates at the time, but since learned lower home price is better than low interest rates. (interest rates and home price are basically inversely proportional) At best, home prices will stay the same through this year. Read this blog, see a ton of homes, learn about housing, loans, the home buying process, curbing your emotions, etc…
When I was a young lad, there was a classmate (let's call him "Frankie") in the very early years of my education whose behavior was quite often deemed as "peculiar" and while I found him immensely entertaining, the teaching staff and my fellow students did not entirely agree. Frankie was the kind of kid who would bang on our doorknocker on a frigid winter morning just before sunrise, fully clad in hockey skates, gloves and stick, and ask if he could skate on our frozen backyard hockey rink. The fact that it was a school day made it not exactly the brightest of decisions but my Dad would invariably say "Alright. You two boys have got 20 minutes then back in your houses to get ready for school." It was never an outright rejection on the grounds of unsuitable behavior; it was more so an accommodation for the simple reason that 20 minutes of hockey at 6:35 a.m. in advance of school was a "noble enterprise" and certainly beat watching Captain Kangaroo over a bowl of Fruit Loops. Read More
The “agreement” Ramsey sees comes from a number of major equity indexes hitting new highs at the same time. Not only have the Dow DJIA, +1.46% S&P 500 SPX, +1.55% Nasdaq COMP, +2.06% and Russell 2000 RUT, +1.21%  been hitting repeated records of late, but so have a number of closely watched sectors, including transports DJT, +1.04% utilities DJU, +0.59%  (which hit a record in September), and financials XLF, +2.08% which are trading at a 10-year high.

In the S&P 500 chart below, you will see the long-term patterns going back to 1970. The "strategic number" is an algorithmic measure comprised of multiple factors which measure risk. When it is close to 100, risk is very high. When it is close to 0, risk is very low. In between, risk is about normal, and trend following can be employed. The "strategic risk range" shows the rough range that the market is likely to be in during the intermediate term.
“This may seem old-fashioned, but there are skills to be learned when kids aren’t told what to do,” said Dr. Michael Yogman, a Harvard Medical School pediatrician who led the drafting of the call to arms. Whether it’s rough-and-tumble physical play, outdoor play or social or pretend play, kids derive important lessons from the chance to make things up as they go, he said. Read More
The most eloquent justification for the bear is provided by the American financier Bernard Baruch, who was called to Washington in 1916 after a market panic to explain his short-sales of the stock of the Brooklyn Rapid Transport Company, a go-go stock of that era. At the time some members of Congress were calling for short- selling to be banned. Baruch stood his ground, politely explaining to the politicians that “bears can only make money if the bulls push up stocks to where they are overpriced and unsound.” He continued:
This week we saw the beginning of the implosion of one of the most crowded trades in the world.  We’re talking, of course, about the short VIX trade.  I say “the beginning” because the short VIX trade is multi-faceted and has deep roots in the business cycle that we’re in.  Like most stories in the market, you need to back up from the tree-line in order to get a view of the forest rather than the trees. 
This system, defined as the Liberal International Order, is the framework of rules, alliances, and institutions that is credited with the relative peace and prosperity the world has enjoyed since 1945. So, if the order has lost support, will the world plunge into beggar-thy-neighbor protectionism? Worse, without the threat of military intervention by the US and its allies, will regional powers start to challenge one another?
What we can expect is that without renewed buying pressure to continue the trend upward — unlikely given the risk numbers and new downward trend — that the market has quite a large potential drop that it can sustain in coming months or quarters. The bottom of the range is around 1200 on the S&P 500 — over a 30% drop from here. Due to all of the intervention of central banks and governments recently and likely coming, I don't expect the S&P 500 will fall any further than about 1200 and might not quite make it all the way there at all, as there is a lot of money on the sidelines. Investors need to be aware of that risk, though.
As the presstitutes are aligned with the military/security complex, Hillary and the DNC, and the liberal/progressive/left, the Russiagate orchestration is a powerful conspiracy against the president of the United States and the “deplorables” who elected him. Nevertheless, the Russiagate Conspiracy has fallen apart and has now been turned against its originators. Read More
"Now investors are wondering if the housing market's problems will spill over into the economy. 'Housing is the one wild card that could, if it takes consumer confidence down with it, take the economy into a recession,' says James Stack of InvesTech Research... Could the housing troubles yank the broad stock market into a morass just as the tech-stock implosion did in 2000?... 'The parallel is amazing,' Stack says."
After a little bit of a lull, the international currency crisis is back with a vengeance.  Currencies are collapsing in Argentina, Brazil, India, Turkey and other emerging markets, and central banks are springing into action.  It is being hoped that the financial chaos can be confined to emerging markets so that it will not spread to the United States and Europe.  But of course the global financial system is more interconnected today than ever before, and a massive wave of debt defaults in emerging markets would inevitably have extremely serious consequences all over the planet. Read More
It is difficult to find the words to describe just how serious America’s trade war with China is becoming.  As you will see below, the two largest economies on the entire planet are on a self-destructive course that almost seems irreversible at this point.  The only way that this trade war is going to come to a rapid conclusion is if one side is willing to totally submit and accept an extremely bitter and humiliating defeat on the global stage, and that is not likely to happen.  Read More
The golden Colossus of Trump looms over the national scene this summer like one of Jeff Koons’s giant, shiny, balloon-puppy sculptures — a monumental expression of semiotic vacancy. At the apogee of Trumpdom, everything’s coming up covfefe. The stock market is 5000 points ahead since 1/20/17. Little Rocket Man is America’s bitch. We’re showing those gibbering Asian hordes and European café layabouts a thing or two about fair trade. Electric cars are almost here to save the day. And soon, American youth will be time-warping around the solar system in the new US Space Corps! Read More
Having read Crash Proof and many other "Dollar is Doomed" books ..this give a great current synopsis on the happening events ... it is weird to read/hear Mr Schiff and is bolf predictions somehow come true. Even though flight to quality in the 'dollar' has hurt many of Mr. Schiffs investments ('currently') .. his insight on the future for our American way of life makes the book a must read.

Bear markets can occur in any asset class. In stocks, a bear market is measured by the Dow, the S&P 500, and the NASDAQ. In bonds, a bear market could occur in U.S. Treasurys, municipals bonds, or corporate bonds. Bear markets also happen currencies, gold, and commodities such as oil. Price drops in consumer goods, such as computers, automobiles, or TVs, are not bear markets. Instead, that's called deflation.

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