In essence, if you are going to war, make sure the costs of war is borne by the enemy, not your own people. Instead of saying, “trade wars are good and easy to win”, Mr. Trump would be wise to follow the ancient general’s advice. Winning a trade war is not so easy, history shows that tariffs which are like taxes will hurt his own people in many ways. Read More
Many of us do think that something isn’t quite right with the world economy. One in a million actually understands, where does it go wrong? Powers that be, do not want you to know about it as it’s your ignorance which keeps them at the top of the financial food chain. I don’t know of any other example in history where so many were looted by so few.
Tom Clancy's books have always been a favorite. I loved Jack Ryan, and I know he was a central figure in this novel as well. However, it appears I no longer have the patience to read until it becomes interesting for me to continue. Couldn't keep up with the characters, and although I hate to say this, I was just plain bored. A book is "good" for me if it is difficult to put down.
Leuthold Group chief investment strategist and economist Jim Paulsen was cautious about stocks ahead of the January-February rout. And he remained steadfastly cautious in front of the recent sell-off. He’s made a lot of good market calls like these in the 20-plus years I’ve tracked his work and known him. Now in the current weakness, he’s turning more bullish on stocks.
I’ve been to Japan several times, and I can personally attest to the fact that the people there have been demoralized by the last two decades. The sense of forward movement that was common in Japan two decades ago has been replaced by a sense of lowered expectations and insecurity. In the US, I remember this demoralization in the early 1990’s, with that weak economy and high crime levels. But then the late 1990’s boom time came and all that was forgotten, and even the early 2000’s recession and 9/11 couldn’t shake the optimism. But now, the sense that things are going downhill seems to be back in the US, especially among the middle class (the moneyed class is doing fine).
The methods and procedures by which municipal debt is issued are governed by an extensive system of laws and regulations, which vary by state. Most bonds bear interest at either a fixed or variable rate of interest, which can be subject to a cap known as the maximum legal limit; some bonds may be issued solely at an original issue discount, or 0% coupon. If a bond measure is proposed in a local election, a Tax Rate Statement may be provided to voters, detailing best estimates of the tax rate required to levy and fund the bond. In cases where no election is held, depending on applicable local law, voters may be entitled to petition the approval to referendum (i.e., a public vote) within a specified period of time; bonds are typically not issued prior to the expiration of any such referendum period.
And while bear markets typically don't last long (most bear markets in the past have only lasted around 10-15 months), they can mean big losses. Bear markets are not the same as market corrections -- when the market drops 10% from a previous high -- but they can be started by a market crash (which happens when prices drop 10% in one or two days).
Mr. Grant, a former Navy gunner’s mate, is a Phi Beta Kappa alumnus of Indiana University. He earned a master’s degree in international relations from Columbia University and began his career in journalism in 1972, at the Baltimore Sun. He joined the staff of Barron’s in 1975 where he originated the “Current Yield” column. He is a trustee of the New York Historical Society. He and his wife, Patricia Kavanagh M.D., live in Brooklyn. They are the parents of four grown children.
Developed by Eduardo Mirahyes, founder of Exceptional Bear, over 28 years of hands-on experience, post completion of the Elliott Wave Advanced Tutorial. History repeats itself nowhere more often than in the Market. The essence of "Elliott" is pattern recognition, to understand the underlying herding psychology, to enable forecasting with a high degree of certainty, rather than herding madness of crowds, to minimize emotion and fear.
The above chart may not seem like a big deal to some but keep in mind the United States had never witnessed a year over year drop in nationwide home prices since the Great Depression. Not only has that been surpassed but home prices are now back to levels last seen 8 years ago. The lost decade is now nipping at our heels but what about two lost decades like Japan?
Erik Townsend welcomes Jim Grant to MacroVoices. Erik and Jim discuss new Fed governor Powell, treasury yields and how far the FED go before something breaks. They discuss his outlook on inflation, gold, junk bonds, China and the drivers of long term debt cycles. They reflect on History and what happened when the FED did not bail out the banks in 1920 and considerations on what actions the US government can take to deal with the debt.
Goldman did mention that the nine-year bull run was mostly due to loose monetary policy and a spate of fiscal stimulus measures. However, September is a month when the Fed is widely anticipated to raise rates for the third time this year. That certainly doesn’t bode well for the economy. Lest we forget, an accommodative monetary policy helped the market recently complete the longest-ever bull run (read more: Wall Street's Longest Bull Run Shapes Winners & Losers).
MOPE has failed and the world is about to implode economically and socially because of it. Your question to all of us has been when will all this happen. The answer is now. The means to this occurrence is accelerating uncontrollable volatility in the world fiat currency markets. The rise in the dollar here and now is due to Richard Russell’s thesis of the synthetic dollar short. This can be easily understood by remembering that the currency you borrow will fluctuate. If that movement is up, then you are at a loss considering where it was trading when your borrowed it. Read More
I am sure you remember the lead up to Q1 2016. The US economy and stock market were transitioning from a Goldilocks environment and narrowly avoiding a bear market while the rest of the world was still battling deflation. Precious metals and commodities were in the dumper and try though US and global central banks might, they seemed to fail to woo the inflation genie out of its bottle at every turn.
A high-level assassination attempt in Russia has the newly elected Ryan sending his most trusted eyes and ears—including antiterrorism specialist John Clark—to Moscow, for he fears the worst is yet to come. And he’s right. The attempt has left the already unstable Russia vulnerable to ambitious forces in China eager to fulfill their destiny—and change the face of the world as we know it...
The bigger they come, the harder they fall. Currently, we are in the terminal phase of an “everything bubble” which has had ten years to grow. It is the biggest financial bubble that our country has ever seen, and experts are warning that when it finally bursts we will experience an economic downturn that is even worse than the Great Depression of the 1930s. Of course many of us in the alternative media have been warning about what is coming for quite some time, but now even many in the mainstream media have jumped on the bandwagon. Read More
As such, the firm expects earnings-per-share (EPS) growth to slow in the second half of 2018 as the positive effect wears off. The chart below shows the downturn being forecast by Morgan Stanley's one-year leading earnings indicator. The expected slowdown would mark the end of a good run for companies in the S&P 500, which have already enjoyed seven straight quarters of profit expansion.
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.B - Free Report) , through its subsidiaries, engages in insurance, freight rail transportation, and utility businesses. The company has a Zacks Rank #2. In the last 60 days, three earnings estimates moved north, while none moved south for the current year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings increased 12.5% in the same period. The company’s expected earnings growth rate for the current quarter and year is 76.4% and 68.9%, respectively. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Regardless of circumstance or family background, Tony believes everyone has the ability to make choices that affect their future positively or negatively. In The Millionaire Choice, he shares the principles and actions he applied during his journey to becoming a millionaire to reveal how, with the right financial knowledge and choices, anyone can become a millionaire.
[After the crash] stocks continued to fall, until by the summer of 1932, the Dow Jones reached a floor of 41.88, nearly 90% off its 1929 peak. By this date, the country’s national income had shrunk by 60% and one third of the non-agricultural workforce was unemployed. President Herbert Hoover, who came to office in early 1929 promising that “the end of poverty was in sight,” faced an uphill task in the forthcoming election. America needed a scapegoat.
We, therefore, the Representatives of the united States of America, in General Congress, Assembled, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, do, in the Name, and by Authority of the good People of these Colonies, solemnly publish and declare, That these United Colonies are, and of Right ought to be Free and Independent States; that they are Absolved from all Allegiance to the British Crown, and that all political connection between them and the State of Great Britain, is and ought to be totally dissolved; and that as Free and Independent States, they have full Power to levy War, conclude Peace, contract Alliances, establish Commerce, and to do all other Acts and Things which Independent States may of right do. Read More
First, momentum stocks are not done getting hit. As psychology turns more bearish, fewer investors are willing to bet that trees will grow to the sky at uber-hot (pun intended) public companies like Tesla Motors and Netflix. Each is down roughly 22 percent from 52-week highs. So, investors trying to make quick money should avoid momentum names. Second, timing the bottom of a correction or bear market is next to impossible. Guessing that $100 is the floor for Netflix, for example, is a dicey business; there really is no way to know what other investors are thinking in real time.
In today's low interest rate environment, equity is being retired by many companies through stock buybacks. Many mergers are still being done with debt...since it is less expensive than issuing stock. Also, I would argue that the value of a well run company with good finances and a rising dividend stream is far greater, per se, than it has been historically.
In 1979, President Carter's administration ceased diplomatic recognition of the government in Taiwan as independent of mainland China, as the U.S. and China normalized relations. The Chinese government has a "One China" policy, where the role of Taiwan is concerned. As for Taiwan, the "island province" is more than autonomous, the island has its own government and its own head of state.
Publisher’s Note: If you’re not averaging double-digit percentage gains on your investments, it’s worth your time to check out Nicholas Vardy’s portfolio strategy. You can learn about his two most recent recommendations — both up over 50% in just the last few months — along with his favorite “wealth-compounding machine” — here in his updated research report. Click here to keep reading.
Hard science, like physics, has rules you can’t break. The law of gravity makes for very specific physical behavior that can be mathematically modeled. Economists want us to believe that their own models are as reliable as the law of gravity. But the real world is a complex, dynamic, out-of-balance mess that doesn’t fit inside anyone’s model. You can’t model a system that is as chaotic and unpredictable as an economy in an Excel spreadsheet or even in the latest and greatest statistical software.
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast Wherever you listen.https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/the-peter-schiff-show-podcast/id404963432?mt=2&ls=1Ridiculous Rhetoric in TariffsOne of the drivers behind the increasing cost of living is going to be the tariffs. The rhetoric here is really ridiculous. Talking heads on the mainstream media say, "We've got Ch ...…
Rankin/Bass Productions, in cooperation with Tadahito Mochinaga's MOM Production in Japan, produced an "Animagic" stop motion animated television special, called The Ballad of Smokey the Bear, narrated by James Cagney. It aired on Thanksgiving Day, November 24, 1966 as part of the General Electric Fantasy Hour on NBC. This same day, a Smokey Bear balloon was featured in the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade, so it was advertised as "Thanksgiving is Smokey Bear Day on NBC TV."  During the 1969–1970 television season, Rankin/Bass also produced a weekly Saturday Morning cartoon series for ABC, called The Smokey Bear Show. This series is animated by Toei Animation in Japan.
Dark Ages is not a silly username—it is a compelling fear that we are repeating the mistakes of all great civilizations, with arrogance that we can merely crush nations that will not continue to take our paper for their tangible goods. I don’t know whether folks dismiss this ranting as nonsense or actually are concerned that this is where we are headed. I cannot imagine a rainbow behind this cloud, although I was in North Carolina recently and saw a beautiful rainbow to the east, while death and destruction were occurring underneath that storm.
Monetary policy also continues to support economic growth because the real federal funds rate (after inflation) is zero, points out Darrell Riley, a strategist at T. Rowe Price. “The economy has a lot of momentum going into next year and monetary policy is still stimulative,” he says. “The economic cycle may go longer than we think. And a lot longer than we think.”
“Government has coddled, accepted, and ignored white collar crime for too long. It is time the nation woke up and realized that it’s not the armed robbers or drug dealers who cause the most economic harm, it’s the white collar criminals living in the most expensive homes who have the most impressive resumes who harm us the most. They steal our pensions, bankrupt our companies, and destroy thousands of jobs, ruining countless lives.” – Harry Markopolos Read More
Erik: I want to come back to something you said earlier where you described if Treasury yields were to double that would obviously double the government’s cost of debt service. And the cost of debt service was about the same as it is now, ten years ago. But it was half as much debt. So with twice as much debt, if we go back to ten-years-ago Treasury yields, we would double the cost.