The first part of my answer is technical, what do the charts show. Well, a normal 50% DJIA retracement of its big gains from January 2016 to January 2018 would take this index down to 21070 and exactly fulfill the minimum requirement of a bear market, i.e. that the DJI falls 20%. The DJI now stands a little above 23500, about 12% down from its peak.

I’ve been asked to comment on the most recent market decline. My initial reaction was, markets go up and they go down. America is a great country but the US Constitution doesn’t guarantee always-rising markets. I sat down and I wanted to write a reassuring message. I wanted to express my empathy. Somehow, I found that my reservoir of empathy was empty: After recent decline the market is still up twenty-something percent from the beginning of 2017.

In 1970, the U.S. fell into recession, and for more than a decade, the economy and the stock market languished. Productivity growth slowed to 1.8% per year, and inflation reached into the double-digits by the end of the decade. In this environment, the stock market was a poor investment. The stock market anticipated the 1970 recession somewhat, and, after peaking in December 1968, experienced a long secular decline. The inflation-adjusted S&P 500 lost 55% of its value before hitting an interim low in December 1974, and another 6% by the time it finally reached a bottom in July 1982. Over this approximately 14-year “bear market,” the inflation-adjusted per capita net worth of households rose a meager 0.2% per year.
The Federal Reserve meeting last week, where the central bank raised interest rates for the fifth time in the last 15 months and signalled two more are on the way by the end of the year, should have breathed new life into the bears. Instead, bonds rallied, in part, as chairman Jerome Powell downplayed the risks of faster inflation and stocks tumbled. But, a close look at the Fed's rate forecast reveals that the difference between its call for a total of three increases this year and four amounted to one estimate on the central bank's "dot plot".
Eighth Interest Rate HikeAs expected, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the eighth time, today. The rate is now 2 to 2.25 percent, so I guess the midpoint is 2.125%. The move was highly anticipated, of course, even I expected the Fed to raise rates. At this point I had been expecting that for some time ever since the Fed first began ...…
5. The millennial generation is getting off to a slow start due to the tremendous burden of $1Trillion+ in student loans. The impact of all this debt is to create an artificial drag on spending for the largest generation in U.S. history right when we need them to pick up the slack from the second largest (and far more wealthy) generation that is retiring in droves.
Historically, municipal debt predates corporate debt by several centuries—the early Renaissance Italian city-states borrowed money from major banking families. Borrowing by American cities dates to the nineteenth century, and records of U.S. municipal bonds indicate use around the early 1800s. Officially the first recorded municipal bond was a general obligation bond issued by the City of New York for a canal in 1812. During the 1840s, many U.S. cities were in debt, and by 1843 cities had roughly $25 million in outstanding debt. In the ensuing decades, rapid urban development demonstrated a correspondingly explosive growth in municipal debt. The debt was used to finance both urban improvements and a growing system of free public education.
I think I’ve figured it out.  There’s multiple Americas.  I don’t mean North, Central and South.  I mean multiple US of As.  What other explanation could there possibly be.  When I hear a windblown politician, a television yakking head, or the wholly ignorant in the streets making these comments I think:  That’s exactly what should be happening in our country!  That is exactly what I value.  That is exactly who I am.  So, here we rest our weary hearts and minds.  In a standoff across an ever-widening abyss.  An abyss of wayward ideologies, ignorance, directionless baseless hatred, stupidity… multiple Americas. Read More
Many of us do think that something isn’t quite right with the world economy. One in a million actually understands, where does it go wrong? Powers that be, do not want you to know about it as it’s your ignorance which keeps them at the top of the financial food chain. I don’t know of any other example in history where so many were looted by so few.
A bond is a promise to pay money, right? And what is money? What is money? Years ago when QE just started, there was a letter to the editor of The Financial Times. And the author of this letter said: At long last I have now understood the meaning of the term “quantitative easing.” I now understand that. What I no longer understand is the meaning of the word “money.”
Although Jeffrey manages one of the world’s largest bond funds, he is an independent thinker who has courage and conviction in his beliefs—maybe because he comes out of left field. Jeffrey holds degrees in mathematics and philosophy from Dartmouth College and was once the lead for a new-wave rock band, back when Paul Volcker had me paying 18% interest on that loan.
"We are in a bond market bubble" that's beginning to unwind, he said on Squawk on the Street, as new Fed Chairman Jerome Powell appeared on Capitol Hill for the second time this week. "Prices are too high" on bonds, Greenspan added. Bond prices move inversely to bond yields, which spiked higher in the new year, recently hitting four-year highs of just under 3%.
I don't believe Clancy actually wrote this book. It isn't like his prior Ryan books. It's over 1000 pages, and if you deleted all the "f" words, it probably would have been 100 pages shorter. Not having references to sex and whores/prostitutes could have cut another 100 pages. He could have been just fine not adding useless filler to demonstrate his knowledge of history. I had a hard time even getting interested in it and almost gave up about 10 chapters into it. It finally did pick up and I stayed the course, despite multiple typo errors and repeated statements in different parts of the book. Evidently, even the editors couldn't get through it all. Very disappointing. I ordered two more of the books in the series at the same time and really hope they are much better (written by Greany). Of the 13 books that I have read of the Ryan/Ryan JR/Clark series of books, this is the first one I've given a negative rating on, as I normally love his books.
Jan 15, 2018 KEY to the current TOPPING. Two attempts to break through resistance, finally breaking through on the 3rd attempt. In the long, Map of the Market by Magnitude above, notice the aqua circle at the top right, shows the short distance between the current Dow price, and the min upside required to breach the upper parallel, just as in 1929, before a CRASH can occur. Most likely first a false breakdown, as we had in BREXIT, should allow us to sell shorts and re-position at a more advantageous level before the upper parallel is breached. We are at that juncture NOW.
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Listen to him say….”THESE ARE THE FACTS.” This video is very entertaining and very informative. It shows you how much of a shyster these real estate agents can be. He says “there’s a whole bunch of us (realtors) out there who know real estate – it’s what we do for a living. We’re licensed and WE HAVE TO TELL YOU THE TRUTH, BY LAW. Boy, what a shyster.
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/Trump Suffers Huge Double BlowYesterday, two key people - one the President's former campaign manager Paul Manafort was convicted of multiple counts of serious financial crimes, and later that day, Michael Cohen, the President's personal attorney, copped a ple ...…
When the financial media continuously repeat an opinion as fact, it spawns a mainstream narrative, which produces a powerful effect on investor psychology. One mainstream narrative, repeated with certainty, is low interest rates cause high stock market valuations, which is supported by the public statements of investment luminaries such as Warren Buffett.
In 1952, the songwriters Steve Nelson and Jack Rollins had a successful song named "Smokey the Bear" which was performed by Eddy Arnold.[10] The pair said "the" was added to Smokey's name to keep the song's rhythm.[11] During the 1950s, that variant of the name became widespread both in popular speech and in print, including at least one standard encyclopedia, though Smokey Bear's name never officially changed.[12] A 1955 book in the Little Golden Books series was called Smokey the Bear and he calls himself by this name in the book. It depicted him as an orphaned cub rescued in the aftermath of a forest fire, which loosely follows Smokey Bear's true story. From the beginning, his name was intentionally spelled differently from the adjective "smoky".
Now the Bruce and Nellie Ohr syory is actually funny and a complete novel yet it digs to the heart and the real meat of the deep tentacles these rascals were using… The Ohr story is the best proof yet and I will never believe Sessions and company did not know all this long ago. Like before he recused……These people are like impacted infected wisdom teeth that need pulling and maybe cracking with a hammer first to get it all out….

5.	Historically, housing has generally kept up with inflation (whereas stocks have generally performed negatively in real terms—which takes into account inflation). For example, look at the negative real returns on stocks during the 70’s; compare that to real value of housing that stayed flat during the 70’s (housing prices moved up in line with inflation).

4. I don’t know whether G. Shilling is right or not on deflation. I think he is right on the economic slowdown, but not necessarily on the inflation piece (can have slowdown AND inflation). But, I’ll give it the following probabilities: 20% chance of another decade or so of Japan-like deflation; 80% chance of sustained, lasting inflation for decades (sustained bouts of stagflation).

“The big lesson of history is that we have run the experiment of hyper-globalization before. In the late 19th century, many of the forces we are seeing [today] were at work: International migration reached levels we have begun to see again, the percentage of the US population that was foreign born reached 14%, and free trade and international capital flows reached new heights. At the time, the 1% were tremendously happy. Unfortunately, they underestimated the backlash that happens when globalization runs too far. The populist backlash [in the late 19th century] was just the beginning of a succession of crises that culminated in 1914 with WWI. War can be global too, and we will know the Liberal International Order has failed when it does what the last one did, and that is to produce a major conflict.”


This all seems pretty gloomy. There is one key element missing, however, and that is exuberance. Bear markets usually start when there has been a mania of some kind. Bitcoin might count, but it remains a small area of financial markets, and elsewhere there is relatively little enthusiasm in evidence. There is no "suspension of disbelief" in mainstream equity markets, which would suggest that there could be further to run if some of the immediate concerns were allayed.

During bear market periods, investing can be risky even for the most seasoned of investors. A bear market is a period marked with falling stock prices. In a bear market, investor confidence is extremely low. Many investors opt to sell off their stocks during a bear market for fear of further losses, thus fueling a vicious cycle of negativity. Although the financial implications of bear markets can vary, typically, bear markets are marked by a 20% downturn or more in stock prices over at least a two-month timeframe.
Other than the continual drama surrounding the Trump presidency, things have been quite calm for the past couple of years. We have been enjoying a time of peace, safety and relative economic prosperity that a lot of Americans have begun to take for granted. But great trouble has been brewing under the surface, and many are wondering if we are about to reach a major turning point. Our planet is being shaken physically, emotionally and financially, and it isn’t going to take much to push us over the edge. Read More
Dr. D: You have to understand what exchanges are and are not. An exchange is a central point where owners post collateral and thereby join and trade on the exchange. The exchange backs the trades with their solvency and reputation, but it’s not a barter system, and it’s not free: the exchange has to make money too. Look at the Comex, which reaches back to the early history of commodities exchange which was founded to match buyers of say, wheat, like General Mills, with producers, the farmers. But why not just have the farmer drive to the local silo and sell there? Two reasons: one, unlike manufacturing, harvests are lumpy. To have everyone buy or sell at one time of the year would cripple the demand for money in that season. This may be why market crashes happen historically at harvest when the demand for money (i.e. Deflation) was highest. Secondly, however, suppose the weather turned bad: all farmers would be ruined simultaneously. Read More

The fundamental principal of information theory is that all information is surprise; only surprise qualifies as information. Sound familiar? George recognized the tie between entrepreneurial surprise and information theory: “Claude Shannon defined information as surprise, and Albert Hirshman defined entrepreneurship as surprise. Here we have a crucial tie between the economy and information theory. For the first time, it became possible to create an economics that could capture the surprising creativity of entrepreneurs.
Written by seasoned Wall Street prognosticator Peter Schiff–author of the bestselling book Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse–The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets reveals how you should protect your assets and invest your money when the American economy is experiencing perilous economic downturns and wealth building is happening elsewhere. Filled with insightful commentary, inventive metaphors, and prescriptive advice, this book shows you how to make money under adverse market conditions by using a conservative, nontraditional investment strategy.
First, market timing is difficult and often unreliable. But the anonymous author behind the brilliant Philosophical Economics blog (his Twitter handle is Jesse Livermore, the name of a legendary investor of the early twentieth century who made and lost millions and committed suicide in 1940) came up with a terrific method. It’s well worth your while reading his post In Search of the Perfect Recession Indicator.
The economies of the world are at an inflection point.  Enough data points have now presented themselves to be able to see the outlines of a major shift in the markets of the world.  We are at a pay attention moment.  There comes a time when a successful investor must make some hard decisions to position himself to be able to take advantage of opportunities down the road.  The markets are telling us now is such a moment.

Michael Wilson, the chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley (MS - Free Report) , added that “over the past two months, the U.S. equity market has moved decidedly more defensive and value is showing more persistent performance versus growth.” This move toward defensive sectors and value strategies indicated that the market is concerned about growth fading later this year and next.
The Federal Reserve meeting last week, where the central bank raised interest rates for the fifth time in the last 15 months and signalled two more are on the way by the end of the year, should have breathed new life into the bears. Instead, bonds rallied, in part, as chairman Jerome Powell downplayed the risks of faster inflation and stocks tumbled. But, a close look at the Fed's rate forecast reveals that the difference between its call for a total of three increases this year and four amounted to one estimate on the central bank's "dot plot".
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