Yet in many ways, bad news for bonds is good news for equities. Investors seem to turn to stocks when bond prices are falling, as changes in bond yields and equity performance have been positively correlated since 1998. Plus, an increase in inflation expectations that's driven by economic growth is usually a good sign for equities, especially when expected inflation crosses the 2 percent threshold.
“Excess liquidity usually leads to the misallocation of capital, masking any balance sheet constrains. As this tide of excess liquidity recedes, it reveals the misallocation of capital and the mispricing of risk,” Nedbank CIB strategists Neels Heyneke and Mehul Daya write in a note. And this is particularly the case for excess dollar-liquidity in the Emerging Markets (EMs).
4. I don’t know whether G. Shilling is right or not on deflation. I think he is right on the economic slowdown, but not necessarily on the inflation piece (can have slowdown AND inflation). But, I’ll give it the following probabilities: 20% chance of another decade or so of Japan-like deflation; 80% chance of sustained, lasting inflation for decades (sustained bouts of stagflation).
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Municipal bond holders may purchase bonds either from the issuer or broker at the time of issuance (on the primary market), or from other bond holders at some time after issuance (on the secondary market). In exchange for an upfront investment of capital, the bond holder receives payments over time composed of interest on the invested principal, and a return of the invested principal itself (see bond).
After the financial crisis and bear market of 2008-09, the Employee Benefit Research Institute did a study of how typical Americans fared with their retirement plan accounts at work. The study found that the average 401(k) account balance plunged by more than 25% during 2008, reflecting stock ownership in most plans. But those who kept participating consistently through 401(k) contributions reaped the rewards of the recovery, as the median balance rose at an impressive 16% annual pace over the four years following the bear market low.
In short, don’t imagine that the era of managing interest rates is over. It isn’t, not by a long chalk. And in fact, I suspect that if anything could give us the “melt-up” outcome, it’s central banks making it clear that they are going to ignore above-target inflation. The idea that they’re not only not taking the punchbowl away, but spiking it with rocket fuel, would be just the ticket for a final blowout.

There was a great sense of triumphalism in the councils of the president’s economic advisory committees. But then, lo and behold, comes the Vietnam War, comes the demographic, comes the coming of age of the baby boomers, comes all sorts of things which in retrospect appear to have been instigators of the price inflation. But they were not so regarded at the time.

In the beginning of 2017, you could buy 1 Bitcoin for around $700-$900. Throughout the summer, Bitcoins price started to soar and seemed to reach new highs on almost a daily basis. In the fall of 2017, Bitcoin continued its impressive run, doubling in price in a 30 day period while breaking through the much anticipated $10,000 USD mark. On December 7th, Bitcoin went parabolic and breached $19,000 USD before settling in the $15,000 – $17,000 range. Even long-term Bitcoin enthusiasts were shocked at this price movement. With these spectacular new highs, more people are discovering Bitcoin and it’s becoming increasingly difficult for media pundits to write Bitcoin off as some cypherpunk fad or anomaly. Make no mistake, for better or for worse, Bitcoin has arrived in a big way and it has officially put the financial world on notice.  Read More
The gains have been fairly broad based. Currently, according to data from StockCharts, 76.2% of S&P 500 components are trading above their 50-day moving averages, a closely watched technical level that is typically seen as a proxy for positive short-term momentum. In late August, only 41.5% of components were above this level. Currently, 73.8% of components are above their 200-day moving average, up from about 62% in early September.
The hedge fund long position in US dollar futures is also at an extreme right now, with the banks taking the other side. Unless there’s something devious going on behind the scenes in the reporting of this data (possible but not probable), the banks are positioned for a huge move higher in gold and a sell-off in the dollar. The only question is timing. Read More
A bull market is one marked with strong investor confidence and optimism. It is the opposite of a bear market, during which negatively prevails. In a bull market, stock prices go up. Like the term "bear market," the term "bull market" is derived from the way a bull attacks its prey. Because bulls tend to charge with their horns thrusting upward into the air, periods of rising stock prices are called bull markets. Unfortunately for investors, bull market periods that last too long can give way to bear markets.

usage: Since the latter part of the 18th century, a distinction has been made between born and borne as past participles of the verb bear. borne is the past participle in all senses that do not refer to physical birth: The wheat fields have borne abundantly. Judges have always borne a burden of responsibility. borne is also the participle when the sense is “to bring forth (young)” and the focus is on the mother rather than on the child. In such cases, borne is preceded by a form of have or followed by by: She had borne a son the previous year. Two children borne by her earlier were already grown. When the focus is on the offspring or on something brought forth as if by birth, born is the standard spelling, and it occurs in passive constructions and in adjective phrases: My friend was born in Ohio. No children have been born at the South Pole. Abraham Lincoln, born in Kentucky, grew up in Illinois.
When I was a young lad, there was a classmate (let's call him "Frankie") in the very early years of my education whose behavior was quite often deemed as "peculiar" and while I found him immensely entertaining, the teaching staff and my fellow students did not entirely agree. Frankie was the kind of kid who would bang on our doorknocker on a frigid winter morning just before sunrise, fully clad in hockey skates, gloves and stick, and ask if he could skate on our frozen backyard hockey rink. The fact that it was a school day made it not exactly the brightest of decisions but my Dad would invariably say "Alright. You two boys have got 20 minutes then back in your houses to get ready for school." It was never an outright rejection on the grounds of unsuitable behavior; it was more so an accommodation for the simple reason that 20 minutes of hockey at 6:35 a.m. in advance of school was a "noble enterprise" and certainly beat watching Captain Kangaroo over a bowl of Fruit Loops. Read More
The issuer of a municipal bond receives a cash purchase price at the time of issuance in exchange for a promise to repay the purchasing investors, or their transferees, (the bond holder) over time. Repayment periods can be as short as a few months (although this is very rare) to 20, 30, or 40 years, or even longer. The issuer typically uses proceeds from a bond sale to pay for capital projects or for other purposes it cannot or does not desire to pay for immediately with funds on hand. Tax regulations governing municipal bonds generally require all money raised by a bond sale to be spent on capital projects within three to five years of issuance.[13] Certain exceptions permit the issuance of bonds to fund other items, including ongoing operations and maintenance expenses in certain cases, the purchase of single-family and multi-family mortgages, and the funding of student loans, among many other things.
“Government has coddled, accepted, and ignored white collar crime for too long. It is time the nation woke up and realized that it’s not the armed robbers or drug dealers who cause the most economic harm, it’s the white collar criminals living in the most expensive homes who have the most impressive resumes who harm us the most. They steal our pensions, bankrupt our companies, and destroy thousands of jobs, ruining countless lives.” – Harry Markopolos Read More
The causes and characteristics of bear markets vary, but most financial theorists agree that economic cycles and investor sentiment both play a role in the creation and momentum of bear markets. In general, a weak or weakening economy -- indicated by low employment, low disposable income, and declining business profits -- ushers in a bear market. The existence of several new trading lows for well-known companies might also indicate that a bear market is occurring. It is important to note that government involvement affects bear markets. Changes in the federal funds rate or in various tax rates can encourage economic expansion or contraction, ultimately leading to bull or bear markets.
Already rising for two weeks, following the Geithner announcement the DJIA had its fifth-biggest one-day point gain in history.[40] "Tim Geithner went from zero to hero in a matter of just a few days" and reported that Bank of America stock led banking stocks with 38% one-day gains.[41] On March 26, 2009, after just short of three weeks of gains which frequently defied the day's bad economic news, the DJIA rebounded to 7924.56. A rise of 21% from the previous low, this met the technical requirements to be considered a bull market.[42] A Wall Street Journal article declared, "Stocks are on their strongest run since the bear market started a year and a half ago as investors continue to debate whether the economy and the markets have finally stabilized".[43] Bloomberg noted the Obama administration's successes included the sale of $24 billion worth of seven-year Treasury notes and pointed out that March 2009 was the best month for the S&P 500 since 1974.[44]

If you believe that there will be a significant change in global economic paradigms over the next 10 years, consider this book as part of developing an applicable investment strategy. Basically the author is focusing on commodities as they will do well in an inflationary period and, reading between the lines, commodities never go to zero (unless one is so leveraged up that one is forced to sell when commodities sell). Fortunately for us small investors the author does provide a road map to utilize his strategy by way of ETFs. With the government rolling the printing presses to shore up and stimulate our economy, inflation will result. This book examines the issues with inflation and how to invest in response.
Yet, Karen is only one of the brilliant minds that you’ll get exposed to and have the chance to meet at the SIC. It’s going to be an intellectually thrilling event, and I hope you can be there with me to experience it firsthand. To learn more about attending the SIC 2018, and about the other speakers who will be there, I encourage you to click here.
7.	The low interest rates that I can actually obtain right now will not be around much longer. With inflation and growing lack of confidence in US, interest rates will rise. This assumes the 80% scenario of inflation. It is possible Gary is right and we stay in low interest environment for a couple more years, but it is still likely to go up, along with inflation, at some point in the not too distant future.

Well Danny – let me tell you something. There are many, many other people out there who are intelligent and REFUSE TO BE TAKEN TO THE CLEANERS. Real estate is WAY overpriced in many areas, so if you say that we basically “need to pay at least 97% of the asking price,” I say you are the epitome of an UN-professional. You do not have the best interests of you buyers at heart. You only have your own selfish interests in mind.
David and Maribel Maldonado seem the very definition of making it in America. David arrived in the U.S. from Mexico as a small child. His father supported the family by working long hours as a mechanic while his mother raised their 10 children. By the time David had a family of his own, his career as a salesman was flourishing. His wife Maribel, whose family is also from Mexico, worked as a hairstylist while caring for the couple’s two children. David’s annual salary reached about $113,000 by the time the children were in their teens. It was more than enough to live in a pretty suburban house outside Dallas, take family vacations, go to restaurants and splurge at the nearby mall. And to afford health insurance.
It wasn’t the RNC. It was the Free Beacon and was directed at at least a couple of Republican primary candidates beyond just Trump. When it became clear that Trump was going to win the nomination they withdrew from the process. That is when the DNC (Hillary’s campaign) took over and then along with Fusion GPS brought in Steele to compile what is now known as the dossier. Two completely separate processes which the media always tries to conflate.
Unfortunately today’s markets have evolved to the point where the latest political decree can significantly impact what happens. And along those lines, there’s been ample speculation that the powers that be may be planning a financial reset. With many feeling that gold and silver will be reset higher, while perhaps much of the global debt is somehow cancelled out (keep in mind U.S. president Donald Trump does have extensive experience with the bankruptcy code). Read More

The set of sanctions that the U.S. began placing on Iran back in 2010 can be best thought of as a monetary blockade. It relied on deputizing U.S. banks to act as snitches. Any U.S. bank that was caught providing correspondent accounts to a foreign bank that itself helped Iran engage in sanctioned activities would be fined. To avoid being penalized, U.S. banks threatened their foreign bank customers to stop enabling Iranian payments or lose their accounts. And of course the foreign banks (mostly) complied. Read More
Whether it's stated or not, one source of the inchoate outrage triggered by Russian-sourced purchases of adverts on Facebook in 2016 (i.e. "meddling in our election") is the sense that the U.S. is sacrosanct due to our innate moral goodness and our Imperial Project: never mind that the intelligence agencies of all great powers (including the U.S.) meddle in the domestic affairs and elections of other nations, including those of allies as well as geopolitical rivals-- no other great power should ever meddle with U.S. domestic affairs and elections. Read More
Economic cracks big enough to drive a car industry into are opening up all over the globe. Trade gaps are opening up between major allies. Widening spreads between the dollar and other currencies are shredding emerging markets. As we start into summer, these cracks and several others described below have become big enough to get everyone’s attention, just as I said last year would become the situation.
"We believe 2018 marks the beginning of a wide trading range (2400-3000) that could last several years. While the price damage may not be extreme at the index level, it may feel and look a lot like a bear market. We think this "rolling bear market" has already begun with peak valuations in December and peak sentiment in January. We have a mid-June 2019 target for the S&P 500 of 2,750," Wilson says.

Rising mortgage rates will certainly cause housing sales to fall. Prices will follow for those houses that have to sell because, as mortgage interest rises, people won’t qualify for as large a mortgage as they do now. It’s all part of the developing Epocalypse in which multiple industries collapse into the final depths of the Great Recession as the fake recovery fades out of existence like a mirage. Read More
It’s not a coincidence that populism emerged as a political force in both the 1920s–1930s, and again today. In each case, people at the bottom could tell the economy wasn’t working in their favor. The best tool they had to do something about it was the vote, so they elected FDR then, and Trump now. Two very different presidents, but both responsive to the most intensely angered voters of their eras.

Take your time! I was in your shoes 6 months ago. I thought I should take advantage of the low interest rates at the time, but since learned lower home price is better than low interest rates. (interest rates and home price are basically inversely proportional) At best, home prices will stay the same through this year. Read this blog, see a ton of homes, learn about housing, loans, the home buying process, curbing your emotions, etc…
But I want to add some good news for the market. Fortunately, there are big technical differences between now and 1929. The market does not show the extremes signs of internal weakness that it showed back then, or in 1937, 1973, 2000 or 2008 when other tops were made. So talk of a huge Crash I would not take seriously. Still, a 20% decline seems much more likely than not. Will it stop there if the computers that dominate the market start doing what they did in October 1987? I would not count on it. I would not want to bet that Wall Street has learned the lessons from that year. It has been too profitable for Wall Street to forget all those lessons.
In Bear Markets, when wild volatility swings become the norm, Swing-trading allows you to hold on to your gains. That's why we proactively guide you to Swing Trade, by setting and regularly updating buy/sell limits to lock in profits and buy back advantageously. In this way we strive to  progressively reduce average cost and augment your profit. Good-till-cancelled limit orders allow you to set them and forget them, until they either execute, or get cancelled. In less than 30-min/day you view new, or adjusted trading signals flagged in red. 
Furthermore, at their December meeting, the Fed hinted that they are willing to let inflation run a little over their 2% target. Although they upgraded GDP growth, their forecast for three hikes in 2017 remained unchanged. Given that Janet Yellen once said, “To me, a wise policy is occasionally to let inflation rise even when inflation is running above target,” this is no surprise.

5. The millennial generation is getting off to a slow start due to the tremendous burden of $1Trillion+ in student loans. The impact of all this debt is to create an artificial drag on spending for the largest generation in U.S. history right when we need them to pick up the slack from the second largest (and far more wealthy) generation that is retiring in droves.
On Tuesday, March 10, Vikram Pandit the CEO of Citibank, said that his bank has been profitable the first two months of 2009 and was currently enjoying its best quarterly performance since 2007. On March 12, Ken Lewis, CEO of Bank of America, declared that bank had also been profitable in January and February, that he didn't foresee the bank needing further government funds, and that he expected to "see $50 billion in 2009 pre-tax revenue". The announcements caused multi-day rallies with double-digit percentage gains for a number of stocks both in and outside of the banking industry.[33][34]

Last week, we shined a spotlight on a crack in the monetary system that few people outside of Switzerland (and not many inside either) were aware of. There is permanent gold backwardation measured in Swiss francs. Everyone knows that the Swiss franc has a negative interest rate, but so far as we know, Keith is the only one who predicted this would lead to its collapse (and he was quite early, having written that in January 2015).


Forget the porn star scandals and possible Russian collusion in an election over fifteen months ago. Most Americans don’t give a damn about either but from turning on cable news, you would think that’s all that is happening in the world. Cable news is out for ratings and those kind of things sell. What you won’t see much of are some of the harsh realities facing Americans and preventing us from becoming truly great. Read More

In our 2018 Year Ahead, we compiled a list of bear market signposts that generally have occurred ahead of bear markets. No single indicator is perfect, and in this cycle, several will undoubtedly lag or not occur at all. But while single indicators may not be useful for market timing, they can be viewed as conservative preconditions for a bear market. Today, 13 of 19 (68%) have been triggered.
I think the above answers the question, the real economy is gone. Everything, including services can be done abroad or in-shored into cheaper markets (see N Carolina, Texas, etc). Thus, this mile high RE market, Boston to DC or San Fran to LA/SD, is simply not sustainable w/o a lot of foreign investors catching the knife in these post-bubble years.
Peter Schiff is an economist, financial broker/dealer, author, frequent guest on national news, and host of the Peter Schiff Show. He follows up his daily two-hour show with a weekly podcasts focusing on weekly economic data analysis and unbiased coverage of financial news, both in the U.S. and global markets. As entertaining as he is informative, Peter packs decades of brilliant insight into every news item. Join the thousands of fans who have benefited from Peter's commitment to getting the real story out every week.
In 1952, the songwriters Steve Nelson and Jack Rollins had a successful song named "Smokey the Bear" which was performed by Eddy Arnold.[10] The pair said "the" was added to Smokey's name to keep the song's rhythm.[11] During the 1950s, that variant of the name became widespread both in popular speech and in print, including at least one standard encyclopedia, though Smokey Bear's name never officially changed.[12] A 1955 book in the Little Golden Books series was called Smokey the Bear and he calls himself by this name in the book. It depicted him as an orphaned cub rescued in the aftermath of a forest fire, which loosely follows Smokey Bear's true story. From the beginning, his name was intentionally spelled differently from the adjective "smoky".
The term dead cat bounce is market lingo for a "recovery" after markets decline due to fundamental reversals. Markets tend to bounce back after sharp declines as participants (human and digital) who have been trained to "buy the dips" once again buy the decline, and the financial media rushes to reassure everyone that nothing has actually changed, everything is still peachy-keen wonderfulness.
As Niall pointed out: “Things are becoming quite disorderly for the liberal order.” Before we go on, I want to make a critical point. Whether you support military intervention, or not, isn’t the issue here. The issue is that without the US playing the role of guarantor, we are likely to see a rise in conflicts. That is going to affect financial markets and your portfolio.
The coming gold and silver surge is guaranteed. It is not a question of IF but only WHEN. Initially, the imminent revaluation of the precious metals will have nothing to do with an investment mania but with the total mismanagement of the world economy. A spectacular rise in the metals is just a reflection of the mess the world is in. But as the paper market fails in gold and silver, there will be panic and manic markets.
I have tried to explain this concept many times before but never had a chart to do it with. Please note the start date of the chart is 1971, this is not by any coincidence as that was the year the U.S. dollar became fully fiat and backed by nothing but “faith”. Before getting started, it is important to understand what August 15, 1971 really meant and why Nixon took us off the gold standard. The obvious is because with France and other nations demanding conversion of dollars into our gold, it would have only been a few short years before our stockpile was completely depleted. Read More
Total sales in November rose 0.9% from a year ago to 1,393,010 new vehicles, according to Autodata, which tracks these sales as they’re reported by the automakers. Sales of cars dropped 8.2%. Sales of trucks – which include SUVs, crossovers, pickups, and vans – rose 6.6%. Strong replacement demand from the hurricane-affected areas in Texas papered over weaknesses elsewhere. As always, there were winners and losers. Read More
This reliance on US strength hasn’t been a problem for the past seven decades, but times are changing. Since the financial crisis, the US has been less willing to bear the costs needed to be the guarantor of the international order. Niall highlights the inaction over Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, and the “little more than cosmetic” strikes against Syria as signs that the US is starting to take a more ambivalent approach to global conflicts.
These two early pieces of legislation against short- selling reveal a common theme in the history of the bears. Bubbles occur when speculators drive asset prices far above their intrinsic value. The collapse of a bubble is frequently accompanied by an economic crisis. Who gets the blame for this crisis? Not the bulls, who were responsible for the bubble and the various frauds and manipulations perpetrated to keep shares high, while cashing in their profits.
Swiss-born Marc Faber, now a resident in Thailand, holds a PhD in economics and is an investment advisor and fund manager through his firm, Marc Faber Ltd. He also writes a monthly investment newsletter, "The Gloom, Boom and Doom Report." As Money notes, Faber is consistently bearish, and frequently is called "Dr. Doom." He sees two big red flags right now.
Older investors who need cash returns like dividends should mostly sit tight, or shift asset mixes more toward U.S. stocks, since the U.S. has the world's most fundamentally strong and stable economy right now. U.S. company dividends are not in apparent danger. But older investors tempted to try to snag some Apple or Facebook on the cheap might want to wait for clearer signs of stabilization before trying to make an opportunity of the sell-off.
By a very wide margin, this is the most optimistic that Americans have been about the future since I started The Economic Collapse Blog in late 2009.  Even though the middle class is shrinking, 102 million working age Americans do not have a job, and we are now 21 trillion dollars in debt, most people are feeling really good about things right now.  Especially among Republicans, there is an overwhelming consensus that the United States is starting to head in the right direction and that better times are ahead.  As a result, so many of the exact same people that were “prepping” while Barack Obama was in the White House are now partying now that Donald Trump is president. Read More
Every once in a while the trading action in a given market breaks through its historically normal boundaries and starts exploring new territory. This can mean one of two things: Either something fundamental has changed, creating a “new normal” to which participants will have to adapt. Or the extreme move is a temporary aberration that will eventually be corrected by an equally extreme snap-back into the previous range. Read More
On this episode of Money For the Rest of Us, David Stein walks you through the complex idea of a bond bear market. He explains that a market consisting of losses of 20% or more are considered a bear market type loss and that this type of loss is possible even in the bond market. David states that “It’s important to understand what drives interest rates, how high they could get, and what the ramifications of that are.” Be sure to listen to this full episode to fully understand this idea and to hear some of David’s suggestions for investing in a rising interest rate environment.
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