As this stock market correction progresses, it is natural to consider what levels may be effectivein halting the decline. We have recently taken a stab at a couple potential “support” levels in the U.S. market with excellent success, so far. Those posts include Monday’s The Mother Of All Support Levels on the broad Value Line Geometric Composite which held precisely, as well as a few Premium Posts at The Lyons Share covering key sectors, which also held on cue: Market Leaders At Must-Hold Levels and Finally Some Support To Bank On (if you’d like to see these posts, shoot us an email at [email protected] and we’d be happy to share). Read More
Phew. Ok. So everything above seems completely ridiculous and indicates basically everyone involved – with the exception of Trump, Nunes, and maybe Sessions – are completely and utterly stupid! If this was a Clancy novel, it would at least have a plausible conspiracy! This one is just dumb. Hillary and DNC funded Steele to collude with Russia to MAKE STUFF UP about POTUS Trump and uses a corrupt and clearly bias FBI and DOJ to facilitate the whole thing. You cannot ask for a more stupid plot to this story! It is just bad!

For age 21 and under, a student is independent if, at any time after July 1, 2016, it can be determined that he is an unaccompanied youth who is homeless or is self-supporting and at risk of being homeless. The determination can be made by the Financial Aid Administrator (FAA) or various social support groups where the student is receiving their services. They forward their information to the FAA.
The first chart comes from my friend, John Hussman, and shows his margin-adjusted version of the cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio. This improved version of the CAPE ratio (improved because it has a greater negative correlation with future 12-year returns) shows equity valuations have now surpassed both the dotcom mania peak in 2000 and the 1929 mania peak. Read More
They’ll spend tens of thousands on a down payment. Go in debt to the order of hundreds of thousands. Or stay in their sinking real estate while shelling out thousands every month that they could be saving. But they’ll never give my question any serious brainpower and at least think through the consequences before committing themselves to eternal debt peonage.
The calculator is based on industry average costs. Your move costs may vary depending on the actual weight of your goods, the services you request or are needed to complete the move, and/or on the pricing of each individual mover. Also, certain costs are not reflected in this calculation, for example any fuel surcharge that may be applicable at the time of your move and valuation costs.

I think that paper money is in a secular bear market and that the institution of managed currency will be seen to be a species of pretense, if not outright intellectual fraud. And I use that word advisedly. And I think that come the dropping of the scales from the eyes of the money holders of the world, gold will do better against almost every currency.
Last week, yields on the German 10-year Bund and 10-year U.S. Treasury notes hit record highs for 2015, rising 85 basis points and 72 basis points, respectively, since their lows this year. Rather than trying to deter the selloff, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi fanned the flames on June 3, saying that European bond investors should expect greater volatility amid a stronger economic outlook and higher inflation expectations. Credit Suisse equities analysts take things a step further, forecasting that bonds are entering a multi-year bear market.
On Tuesday night all of the speculation about the midterm elections will mercifully be over, and there is one potential outcome that is being called a “disaster” for the financial markets.  Over the past couple of years, stock prices have soared to unprecedented levels, and Wall Street has seemed to greatly appreciate the pro-business environment that President Trump has attempted to cultivate.  Regulations have been rolled back, corporate taxes have been reduced significantly, and many corporate executives no longer fear that the federal government is out to get them.  But after Tuesday, everything could be different. Read More

To present a methaphor, under Title I FISA authority, Carter Page was essentially ‘patient zero’ in an Ebola pandemic.  Labeling him as a foreign agent allowed the FBI to look at every single person he came in contact with; and every single aspect of their lives and their activities in growing and concentric circles; without limits to current time or historic review.

For age 21 and under, a student is independent if, at any time after July 1, 2016, it can be determined that he is an unaccompanied youth who is homeless or is self-supporting and at risk of being homeless. The determination can be made by the Financial Aid Administrator (FAA) or various social support groups where the student is receiving their services. They forward their information to the FAA.
Dr. D: The money, the unaccountable, uninhibited release of tokens can do more than just buy centuries of hard labor in seconds, it‘s also a method of control. Banks, our present issuers of money, can approve or destroy businesses by denying loans. They can do this to individuals, like denying loans to unpopular figures, or to whole sectors, like gun shops. They can also offer money for free to Amazon, Facebook, and Tesla, which have no profitable business model or any hope of getting one, and deny loans to power plants, railroads, farms, and bridges as they fall into the Mississippi. 
I think the above answers the question, the real economy is gone. Everything, including services can be done abroad or in-shored into cheaper markets (see N Carolina, Texas, etc). Thus, this mile high RE market, Boston to DC or San Fran to LA/SD, is simply not sustainable w/o a lot of foreign investors catching the knife in these post-bubble years.
Appeal Case – “Given my status at the time, I felt completely lost and was afraid to make the wrong move given the risks. I wanted guidance and wasn’t completely sure who to turn to.  I exchanged emails with Mr Kuhner then moved forward with his coaching service. My entire situation was nerve-wracking, and I did not feel I was prepared to handle it on my own. Now, I feel great that my problem is resolved.  And even better that I have gained knowledge, I did not previously know or fully understand. It was also a pleasure working with Mr Kuhner (Coach-for-College), who was nothing but professional in assisting me.”  – Dorothy D. – New Jersey [Appeal Award $3,000]
I think of velocity as a machine which money has to go through to produce economic activity. If the machine is on a low setting, it doesn’t matter how much money you put in—you won’t get growth. The falling velocity of money, which is at its lowest point since 1949, is another reason why growth has remained subdued in the post-financial crisis world.
What if real estate prices remain the same for another decade?  As I look at economic trends in our nation including the jobs we are adding, it is becoming more apparent that we may be entering a time when low wage jobs dominate and home prices remain sluggish for a decade moving forward.  Why would this occur?  No one has a crystal ball but looking at the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing program, growth of lower paying jobs, baby boomers retiring, and the massive amount of excess housing inventory we start to see why Japan’s post-bubble real estate market is very likely to occur in the United States.  It is probably useful to mention that the Case-Shiller 20 City Index has already hit the rewind button to 2003 and many metro areas have already surpassed the lost decade mark in prices.  This is the aftermath of a bubble.  Prices cannot go back to previous peaks because those summits never reflected an economic reality that was sustainable.  A chart comparing both Japan and U.S. housing markets would be useful here.
For investors looking to maintain some positions in the stock market, a defensive strategy is usually taken. This type of strategy involves investing in larger companies with strong balance sheets and a long operational history, which are considered to be defensive stocks. The reason for this is that these larger, more stable companies tend to be less affected by an overall downturn in the economy or stock market, making their share prices less susceptible to a larger fall. With strong financial positions, including large cash holdings to meet ongoing operational expenses, these companies are more likely to survive downturns.
The 5 percent down is not all that risky for fund investors because the quality of the borrowers is high and the fact that the Freedom Note would pay down to $294,557 by only the third year; while with the Slave Note, your balance is $654,809 by the third year. So with the Slave Note, after 3 years your balance has reduced by $45,190 or 6 percent while with the Freedom Note, even though the rate is over twice the Slave Note, it reduces its balance by $44,233 or 13% – yes 13 percent!

First, more NYSE stocks are bought on margin now than at any time since the 1950s, and Faber interprets this as a sign of overvaluation. Indeed, he finds that stock prices are "out of control," per Money, with the market P/E ratio nearly double its historical average. Once a selloff begins, Faber expects it to become an avalanche in which "asset holders will lose 50% of their assets [and] some people will lose everything," as Money quotes him.
Peter Schiff has been saying for weeks this is a bear market. Well, now even Pres. Trump has said investors may see some short-term pain in the stock market. But the president says it will all be worth it because we will get long-term gain, referring to the benefits we’ll reap when we win the trade war. In his most recent podcast, Peter said that’s not how it’s going to play out. Read More
The shares slumped -6.88% after dropping as much as -10% at the lows after the company’s CEO, in an interview with CNBC yesterday, failed to reassure market fears about a weakening financial position. The CEO suggested that the company will now urgently sell assets to address leverage and its precarious liquidity situation whereby it will have to rely on revolvers - and the generosity of its banks - now that it is locked out of the commercial paper market. Read More
Now a money manager at Janus Henderson, Gross was the co-founder of Pimco, which he helped build into the world’s largest bond fund manager and was dubbed the “bond king” by the financial media. In his note, Gross said he expected the 10-year yield to rise above 2.75% by the end of this year. But he waved away worries that rising yields would deal pain to investors, saying higher yields could sit along with slightly positive returns for bonds.
Although the U.S. Forest Service fought wildfires long before World War II, the war brought a new importance and urgency to the effort. At the time, most able-bodied men were already serving in the armed forces and none could be spared to fight forest fires. The Forest Service began using colorful posters to educate Americans about the dangers of forest fires in the hope that local communities, with the most accurate information, could prevent them from starting in the first place.[7][16]

There is occasional confusion between bear and bare in adjectival uses (as in "he rubbed his bear arms"), but bear is properly a noun and only used like an adjective in the financial phrase bear market. All other uses refer to the state of being uncovered or naked and should therefore be bare: "bare necessities," "bare essentials," "bare arms," "bare bones," "bare-knuckle," and so on.

Furthermore, at their December meeting, the Fed hinted that they are willing to let inflation run a little over their 2% target. Although they upgraded GDP growth, their forecast for three hikes in 2017 remained unchanged. Given that Janet Yellen once said, “To me, a wise policy is occasionally to let inflation rise even when inflation is running above target,” this is no surprise.
Boneparth said that, based on his recent moves, the most likely explanation for the surge into bond funds is rebalancing. "We've been watching 5 to 10 percent of portfolios that have created built- in risk over the past few years and now are moving out of equities and back into fixed income," he said. "You're probably seeing a lot of that take place at the retail level."
The company lost $1.1 billion in cash in the last quarter, executives are leaving the company in droves, it’s facing production issues with its Model 3 and, as I recently discussed, Elon Musk insulted analysts on the latest earnings call by dismissing their questions – regarding the company’s survival – as “boring” and “boneheaded,” (just after shareholders approved his obscenely large pay package).
The stock market has stayed strong for close to a decade now, and along the way, it's produced impressive returns for stock investors. Yet this far into a bull market, the biggest fear for many people who are considering putting money into stocks is that they could end up investing at exactly the wrong time: right before a bear market hits and devastates their portfolios.

John Hussman wrote a must-read essay titled:  “Three Delusions:  Paper Wealth, A Booming Economy and Bitcoin (link).”   The crypto/blockchain delusion has exceeded the absurdity of the dot.com and housing bubble eras.   I was shorting fraud stocks happily in both eras.  I’m short a company  now called Riot Blockchain.  If you look at its description in Yahoo Finance, it bills itself as a developer of technologies applied to animal (“non-human”) medicine.  It recently changed its name to Riot Blockchain from Bioptix Inc.  Prior to calling itself Bioptic Inc, it called itself Venaxis. Read More

The second important institutional change is the growth in the mutual fund industry since the mid-1980s, which resulted from the changes in the retirement plans as well as from the individual small investor’s demand for an inexpensive means of acquiring a diversified investment in the capital markets. Households’ investment in stock and bond mutual funds (not including those held indirectly through pension funds) grew from about 1% of total financial assets in 1984 to 9% in 2002. To be sure, with the increased prominence of pension funds and stock and bond mutual funds, direct holdings of stocks and bonds as a share of financial assets has declined from about 37% in 1960 to 22% in 2002. Nevertheless, the potential cost advantage and portfolio diversification available through financial intermediaries facilitates household investment in stocks and bonds. Therefore, the availability of pension and mutual funds should tend to work in consort with the underlying economic fundamentals affecting households’ demand for stocks going forward.
The type of project or projects that are funded by a bond affects the taxability of income received on the bonds. Interest earnings on bonds that fund projects that are constructed for the public good are generally exempt from federal income taxes, while interest earnings on bonds issued to fund projects partly or wholly benefiting only private parties, sometimes referred to as private activity bonds or PABs, may be subject to federal income tax. However, qualified private activity bonds, whether issued by a governmental unit or private entity, are exempt from federal taxes because the bonds are financing services or facilities that, while meeting the private activity tests, are needed by a government. See a list of those projects in Section 141 of the IRS Code.
The hedge fund long position in US dollar futures is also at an extreme right now, with the banks taking the other side. Unless there’s something devious going on behind the scenes in the reporting of this data (possible but not probable), the banks are positioned for a huge move higher in gold and a sell-off in the dollar. The only question is timing. Read More
During the first three quarters of 2016 we were open to the possibility that a new cyclical gold bull market got underway in December of 2015, but over the past 18 months we have been consistent in our opinion that the December-2015 upward reversal in the US$ gold price did NOT mark the start of a bull market. Since late-2016 there have been some interesting rallies in the gold price, but at no time has there been a good reason to believe that we were dealing with a bull market. That’s still the case. The question is: what will it take to set a new cyclical gold bull market in motion? Read More
Led by the S&P, the next move in global equities is a black-hole plunge. Rather than protect long portfolios with Puts, why not liquidate them entirely? The Fed's stimulatory hand is played-out, & the impending Crash will strike with such force that the Silver Bullet from the past will no longer suffice to resuscitate the market. Since the market forecasts the economy more accurately than any economist, this time it's we, who must bite the Silver Bullet. Genuine Bull Markets reflect economic expansion by sub-dividing into 5-waves; Bear Market Rallies, like the Roaring Twenties, and Bernanke's megalomaniac Put are illusory, 3-wave upsides within larger Bear Markets. Only a 5-wave Crash is final. Artificial stimulus is an illicit drug, for which the Fed is the Global Pusher . Rather than more ?hair of the dog?, addicted economies can only heal via cold turkey abstinence. In return for numbing the pain of economic contraction, we have prevented healing the addiction, to dramatically aggravating the economy's ability to heal. By distorting economic incentives to divert capital away from the most worthy ventures, stimulus has exacerbated excess to perpetuate illusory Bubbles. The price of stimulus is a far more austere & enduring Depression, required to wring-out the excess via a rapid, downward GDP spiral to back-out stimulus in its entirety. Once the dollar collapse gains momentum to become universally recognized, the massive exodus out of the Dollar-denominated assets will force interest rates to skyrocket, to balloon the national debt out of control. As documented by Rogoff and Reinhart documented, This Time is NEVER different - eight centuries of financial Folly -a US default of
It wasn’t the RNC. It was the Free Beacon and was directed at at least a couple of Republican primary candidates beyond just Trump. When it became clear that Trump was going to win the nomination they withdrew from the process. That is when the DNC (Hillary’s campaign) took over and then along with Fusion GPS brought in Steele to compile what is now known as the dossier. Two completely separate processes which the media always tries to conflate.
In a world based on fake paper and fake electronic money as well as fake asset values, the real significance of gold has got lost. With endless credit expansion and money printing, all asset prices have exploded and investors have made fake profits that seem real. But the imminent secular downturn of debt and asset markets as well as the world economy will reveal how unreal these profits were as 90% or more of all the paper wealth in the world will go up in smoke. So investors should now prepare for the biggest wealth destruction in history and also the biggest wealth transfer. Read More
Once a municipal advisor and bond counsel have been established, they will work together to identify an underwriter that will manage the distribution of the bonds. The underwriter is a broker-dealer that publicly administers the issuance and distributes the bonds. As such, they serve as the bridge between the buy and sell side of the bond issuance process. Underwriters connect issuers with potential bond buyers, and determine the price at which to offer the bonds. In doing so, most underwriters will assume full risk and responsibility for the distribution and sale of the bonds issued by the issuing agency. As such, underwriters play a central role in deciding the return and span of maturities, typically collect fees in exchange for their services. If the price is wrong, the underwriter is left holding the bonds.
I want you to understand this. This was no speedy drive by. This was a 16-hour trip, by two U.S. warships enforcing their right to travel international waters -- waters that China would obviously dispute the use of the word "international" as descriptive. The U.S. ships were shadowed by Chinese warships. This is cold war behavior. Been there, done that.
“These are the times that try men’s souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands it now deserves the love and thanks of man and woman. Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph.”—Thomas Paine, December 1776
4. Understand that the dominant phenomenon of our era--exponentially accelerating complexity--is an emergent phenomenon that we can't handle with our archaic cultural genome (see #1). Hence we're converting the sky into a lethal gas chamber of commerce, arming it with weapons of mass extinction that bring the promise of "a premature and perverted death" for our descendants. Economists have literally externalized the sky while extolling the trade "benefits" and "efficiency" of 20 countries shipping parts to construct a Barbie doll. Can't get away with that; and we ain't. Verily, that's called being lethally wrong. Pssst: The sky? That be fundamental.
I rate Clancy's Classic, early stories five stars. Hunt for Red October and Cardinal of the Kremlin are the best, Clear and Present Danger and Without Remorse are also good tales with good characters, well written. This book shows the weaker side of a formula followed for too long. The Ryan character is now fully emersed in a fantasy world and characters that were filled out in earlier books are now hollow shadows. And, the gratuitous sex and Jack Ryan's increasing use of foul language don't ring true compared to Clancy's earlier stories. I wonder if, at the time of this book, Clancy started using uncredited "collaborators" to boost his writing output? This story still provides some entertaining reading, but it is far less compelling than the earlier work that made Tom Clancy the highest standard in spy/techno adventures.
"Less central bank liquidity support as we near the end of an economic cycle should bring higher volatility as risk assets and markets lose some of their ability to absorb shocks. Our call is not for a simultaneous and large repricing across risk assets, but for a bear market that rolls through different assets and sectors at different times with the weakest links (Bitcoin, EM debt and equities, BTPs, funding spreads, base metals, and early cycle industries like home builders and airlines) being hit first/hardest."
Inflation is directly responsible for the price increase of everything. That doesn’t mean that all commodities or financial instruments go up in unison, they don’t. But soybeans or silver are not inherently more valuable today than they were a hundred years ago. What has changed is the value of the dollar, not the commodity. Markets search constantly for the correct price. That is why prices go up and prices go down. The market never quite knows what is the right price for anything so it searches until buyers and sellers are satisfied with price and make a transaction. Read More
A stone slab bearing 3,000-year-old writing previously unknown to scholars has been found in the Mexican state of Veracruz, and archaeologists say it is an example of the oldest script ever discovered in the Western Hemisphere. — John Noble Wilford, New York Times, 15 Sept. 2006 Large public buildings often bear only a loose resemblance to what was originally in the minds of the architects who designed them. Things get cut back to save money; somebody has second thoughts about the way part of the building will function; it takes so long to get public approval that the original idea starts to seem dated … — Paul Goldberger, New Yorker, 17 Jan. 2002 The most famous work of Louis Pasteur (1822-1895), of course, was purifying milk with the process that now bears his name. — Brendan Miniter, American Enterprise, September/October 1998 In so-called parking schemes, securities aren't carried on the books of the true owner but are temporarily sold to someone else with the understanding that the seller will continue to bear any risk of loss and reap any profits. — James B. Stewart, New Yorker, 8 Mar. 1993 As a science fiction buff, many years ago, I remember being particularly fascinated by tales of genetic surgery. Imagine the surgeon … peering through the electron microscope, repairing the sickle-cell gene and returning the ovum to its mother, who would then bear a normal child. — Richard Novick, New York Times Book Review, 15 Feb. 1987 The sight of Niña already there, snugged down as if she had been at home a month, finished Martín Alonso Pinzón. Older than Columbus, ill from the hardships of the voyage, mortified by his snub from the Sovereigns, he could bear no more. — Samuel Eliot Morison, The European Discovery of America, 1974 a symphony that can bear comparison with Beethoven's best The company agreed to bear the costs. The criminals must bear full responsibility for the deaths of these innocent people. Who will bear the blame for this tragedy?
It can be argued that when Spain instituted a common currency in the form of the Real de a Ocho, also known as Pieces of Eight, or the Spanish dollar, globalisation’s first chapter had been written. The acceptance of the dollar coins for commercial transactions throughout Asia, the Americas and much of Europe, resulted in a cultural exchange between nations, as well as the relatively free movement of people and goods between the three continent. Read More
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/FAANG's Took a Big Bite Out of the MarketAnother Monday, another big down day for the U.S. stock market, it is turning out to be one hell of a quarter; not all of the declines happening in October. But as I said earlier, it doesn't have to be in October for th ...…
The corollary is that investors should bet on what they think will happen over the medium to long term, stripping out their inclination to guess what other investors will do this week or this month. If you think electric cars are going to take over the world, for example, it might well be smart to snag some Tesla while it's on sale, if you can afford to wait for the bounce back.
A 20% drop by the DJI will next require it to break below its support at 23180. History,1928–2017, suggests that ordinarily a bigger decline more than 15% is usually delayed until (1) the NYSE A/D Line has shown a much longer period of divergence than we have so far had, and/or (2) the Tiger Accumulation Index has been negative a lot longer than it has now or (3) that a sudden DJI head/shoulders top pattern has appeared which shows a rapid re-evaluation of market conditions by Professionals. None of these three conditions are present now. So, technically a decline below 23180 should not occur at this juncture, if this were a “normal” market. But downside volatility is very high now and the DJI is unable to stay within its normal Peerless trading bands.

The world has been plagued with periodic bouts of the economic rollercoaster of booms and busts, inflations and recessions, especially during the last one hundred years. The main culprits responsible for these destabilizing and disruptive episodes have been governments and their central banks. They have monopolized the control of their respective nation’s monetary and banking systems, and mismanaged them. There is really nowhere else to point other than in their direction.
What if real estate prices remain the same for another decade?  As I look at economic trends in our nation including the jobs we are adding, it is becoming more apparent that we may be entering a time when low wage jobs dominate and home prices remain sluggish for a decade moving forward.  Why would this occur?  No one has a crystal ball but looking at the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing program, growth of lower paying jobs, baby boomers retiring, and the massive amount of excess housing inventory we start to see why Japan’s post-bubble real estate market is very likely to occur in the United States.  It is probably useful to mention that the Case-Shiller 20 City Index has already hit the rewind button to 2003 and many metro areas have already surpassed the lost decade mark in prices.  This is the aftermath of a bubble.  Prices cannot go back to previous peaks because those summits never reflected an economic reality that was sustainable.  A chart comparing both Japan and U.S. housing markets would be useful here.
This system, defined as the Liberal International Order, is the framework of rules, alliances, and institutions that is credited with the relative peace and prosperity the world has enjoyed since 1945. So, if the order has lost support, will the world plunge into beggar-thy-neighbor protectionism? Worse, without the threat of military intervention by the US and its allies, will regional powers start to challenge one another?
7. The low interest rates that I can actually obtain right now will not be around much longer. With inflation and growing lack of confidence in US, interest rates will rise. This assumes the 80% scenario of inflation. It is possible Gary is right and we stay in low interest environment for a couple more years, but it is still likely to go up, along with inflation, at some point in the not too distant future.
A bear market rally is a trend that tends to trick investors into thinking the bull market is on the rise again -- but is, in fact, an upward trend where the stock market posts gains for a couple days or weeks but drops again. There may be several bear market rallies within a regular bear market, but an upward trend can't be considered a bull market until market prices rise 20% or more. 
Although the U.S. Forest Service fought wildfires long before World War II, the war brought a new importance and urgency to the effort. At the time, most able-bodied men were already serving in the armed forces and none could be spared to fight forest fires. The Forest Service began using colorful posters to educate Americans about the dangers of forest fires in the hope that local communities, with the most accurate information, could prevent them from starting in the first place.[7][16]
The phrases were first published in the 18th-century book, "Every Man His Own Broker," by Thomas Mortimer. Two 19th century artists made the terms even more popular. Thomas Nast published cartoons about the slaughter of the bulls on Wall Street in Harper's Bazaar. In 1873, William Holbrook Beard painted the stock market crash using bulls and bears. (Sources: "Symbolism of the Bull and Bear," Federal Reserve Banks of New York. "Origin of Bulls and Bears," Motley Fool. "Bulls and Bears," Valentine Capital Asset Management.
×