The causes and characteristics of bear markets vary, but most financial theorists agree that economic cycles and investor sentiment both play a role in the creation and momentum of bear markets. In general, a weak or weakening economy -- indicated by low employment, low disposable income, and declining business profits -- ushers in a bear market. The existence of several new trading lows for well-known companies might also indicate that a bear market is occurring. It is important to note that government involvement affects bear markets. Changes in the federal funds rate or in various tax rates can encourage economic expansion or contraction, ultimately leading to bull or bear markets.
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/Dow Could Not Hold Onto the GainAfter yesterday's, I think 550 point drop in the Dow, the market bounced back a bit today. I think at one point earlier in the day the Dow managed to gain over 200 points, but it could not hold on to that gain. It closed down ju ...…
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/Trump Suffers Huge Double BlowYesterday, two key people - one the President's former campaign manager Paul Manafort was convicted of multiple counts of serious financial crimes, and later that day, Michael Cohen, the President's personal attorney, copped a ple ...…

The online battle royale game Fortnite: Battle Royale parodies Smokey and his motto in a loading screen featuring Cuddle Team Leader, a woman dressed in a teddy bear costume replacing Smokey and doing his signature finger-pointing pose. Below her is the message "Only YOU can prevent V-Buck scams", warning players not to risk security compromises by attempting to obtain free virtual currency offered by hackers as bait.[71]


JOIN PETER at the New Orleans Investment Conferencehttps://neworleansconference.com/conference-schedule/Divided Government is Good?If the Democrats get control of Congress, which is a likely occurrence, what I'm hearing now is that this is bullish for the stock market! The stock market bulls are saying that if we have divided government that th ...…
The U.S. Supreme Court held in 1895 that the federal government had no power under the U.S. Constitution to tax interest on municipal bonds.[20] But, in 1988, the Supreme Court stated the Congress could tax interest income on municipal bonds if it so desired on the basis that tax exemption of municipal bonds is not protected by the Constitution.[21] In this case, the Supreme Court stated that the contrary decision of the Court 1895 in the case of Pollock v. Farmers' Loan & Trust Co. had been "effectively overruled by subsequent case law."
What if real estate prices remain the same for another decade?  As I look at economic trends in our nation including the jobs we are adding, it is becoming more apparent that we may be entering a time when low wage jobs dominate and home prices remain sluggish for a decade moving forward.  Why would this occur?  No one has a crystal ball but looking at the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing program, growth of lower paying jobs, baby boomers retiring, and the massive amount of excess housing inventory we start to see why Japan’s post-bubble real estate market is very likely to occur in the United States.  It is probably useful to mention that the Case-Shiller 20 City Index has already hit the rewind button to 2003 and many metro areas have already surpassed the lost decade mark in prices.  This is the aftermath of a bubble.  Prices cannot go back to previous peaks because those summits never reflected an economic reality that was sustainable.  A chart comparing both Japan and U.S. housing markets would be useful here.
“Exhilarating...You’d have to be numb not to be impressed by the scale of [Clancy’s] ambition, his feel for the way information now flashes instantaneously across the globe, his mastery of technological developments. No other novelists is giving so full a picture of modern conflict, equally adeptly depicting those at the top and bottom of military and intelligence systems.”—The London Sunday Times
In his book, “1984”, George Orwell envisioned a future crushed by the iron grip of a collectivist oligarchy. The narrative told of the INGSOC Party which maintained power through a system of surveillance and brutality designed to monitor and control every aspect of society.  From the time of the book’s release in 1949, any ensuing vision of a dark dystopia depicting variations of jackboots stomping on human faces, forever, has been referenced as being “Orwellian”.  This is because Orwell’s narrative illustrated various disturbing and unjust conceptualizations of control, crime, and punishment. Read More

The corollary is that investors should bet on what they think will happen over the medium to long term, stripping out their inclination to guess what other investors will do this week or this month. If you think electric cars are going to take over the world, for example, it might well be smart to snag some Tesla while it's on sale, if you can afford to wait for the bounce back.


The pain of the masses and yet Wal-Mart and Exxon continue to use their monopoly power to extort the nation for bragging rights to see which corporation and have the biggest 11-digit profit in one quarter. You might think even Rush and Kudlow would take pause that perhaps unfettered capitalism may not be the self-correcting, perpetual-motion answer to all humanity—but no, once a fool has his mind made up, no amount of evidence will change it.
Once a municipal advisor and bond counsel have been established, they will work together to identify an underwriter that will manage the distribution of the bonds. The underwriter is a broker-dealer that publicly administers the issuance and distributes the bonds. As such, they serve as the bridge between the buy and sell side of the bond issuance process. Underwriters connect issuers with potential bond buyers, and determine the price at which to offer the bonds. In doing so, most underwriters will assume full risk and responsibility for the distribution and sale of the bonds issued by the issuing agency. As such, underwriters play a central role in deciding the return and span of maturities, typically collect fees in exchange for their services. If the price is wrong, the underwriter is left holding the bonds.
Two thirds of Americans get at least some of their news on social media. Google and Facebook receive well over 70% of US digital advertising revenues. The average daily time spent on social media is 2 hours. Just a few factoids that have at least one thing in common: nothing like them was around 10 years ago, let alone 20. And they depict a change, or set of changes, in our world that will take a long time yet to understand and absorb. Some things just move too fast for us to keep track of, let alone process. Read More
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JOIN PETER at the New Orleans Investment Conferencehttps://neworleansconference.com/conference-schedule/Divided Government is Good?If the Democrats get control of Congress, which is a likely occurrence, what I'm hearing now is that this is bullish for the stock market! The stock market bulls are saying that if we have divided government that th ...…
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/Surrendered Rest of Post-Election Gains in One DayAs I thought, it didn't take long for the markets to surrender all of the post-election gains. The Dow Jones today was down 602 points, so we've already lost it. It took one day. On my podcast on Friday I said ...…
They've promised full pensions to their workers. But they aren't putting aside enough money — or generating high enough returns — to fulfill those future obligations. Soon, they'll have to cannibalize current workers' pension contributions to pay retirees. Young and middle-aged government employees will likely never receive the retirement benefits they're counting on.
It could be the arrival of a “sudden stop”. As I explain in Escape from the Central Bank Trap (BEP, 2017), a sudden stop happens when the extraordinary and excessive flow of cheap US dollars into emerging markets suddenly reverses and funds return to the U.S. looking for safer assets. The central bank “carry trade” of low interest rates and abundant liquidity was used to buy “growth” and “inflation-linked” assets in emerging markets. Read More
As I mentioned above, when there is a strong consensus on a topic, it almost always pays to seek out an independent view. While automation will render some jobs obsolete in the coming decades, I believe it will also create a lot of opportunities. Karen and Macro Trends’s groundbreaking research into the declining cost of distance has convinced me of that.
Two thirds of Americans get at least some of their news on social media. Google and Facebook receive well over 70% of US digital advertising revenues. The average daily time spent on social media is 2 hours. Just a few factoids that have at least one thing in common: nothing like them was around 10 years ago, let alone 20. And they depict a change, or set of changes, in our world that will take a long time yet to understand and absorb. Some things just move too fast for us to keep track of, let alone process. Read More
Food programs are widely considered welfare to the people using them. In fact they are welfare to the food industry: it is a direct transfer of government (tax) bling to the pockets of General Mills, General Foods, Cargill, ADM, Monsanto, and the other Big Food/Big Pharma companies. It is tax bling to the grocers as well. These companies can keep marking up food for profit, squeezing those who pay money for it AND pay taxes so those who can’t afford the food can give Munchy Bucks to their local food vendor, and those dollars are credited to the food industry.
You’ll keep wasting money on expired put options (like spending insurance premiums), and it will drag down your returns during bull markets. Then during a bear market, you might get a nice payout when one of your recent round of put options finally becomes valuable, but it might not make up for all the expired put options you already paid for, depending on how long you’ve been doing it.
Exactly one month ago, just as the S&P hit all time high, Bank of America caused a stir when it announced that one of its proprietary "guaranteed bear market" indicators created by the Bank of America quants was just triggered. As we said at the time, what was remarkable about this particular indicator is that it predicted not only the size of the upcoming drop (-12% on average) but also the timing (over the coming three months). Also notable: its uncanny accuracy: it was correct on 11 out of 11 previous occasions after it was triggered.
We are nearly a year into Donald Trump’s presidency, and the economic numbers continue to look quite good.  On Monday, we learned that U.S. retail sales during the holiday season are projected to be way up compared to 2016.  Yes, there are all sorts of economic red flags popping up all over the place, and I write about them regularly.  And without a doubt, 2017 has been one of the worst years for brick and mortar retail stores in a very long time.  But when something good happens we should acknowledge that too, and many are giving President Trump credit for the fact that retail sales are projected to be up 4.9 percent this holiday season compared to last year... Read More
If there doesn't seem to be many viable investments in uptrends, other options for more growth-oriented investors might include inverse Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).  The way these generally work is, when you invest in them and the market in question is declining, they actually make money.  Now, you'd rarely make +10% if the market is down -10% becuase there are fees and other complicated variables in these funds.
The nearly decade-long U.S. economic expansion may look a little long in the tooth, but it is not about to end due to old age. Economic expansions need a catalyst that triggers a downward spiral of consumer and business retrenchment. The most common recession catalyst for the United States has been the collision of rising interest rates with heavy debt loads, corporate valuations that appear to have run ahead of free-cash-flow generation, or both. Add trade tensions and geo-political uncertainties, which may work to slow global growth, and it seems like the current situation has the potential to trigger a recession. Read More

Dark Ages is not a silly username—it is a compelling fear that we are repeating the mistakes of all great civilizations, with arrogance that we can merely crush nations that will not continue to take our paper for their tangible goods. I don’t know whether folks dismiss this ranting as nonsense or actually are concerned that this is where we are headed. I cannot imagine a rainbow behind this cloud, although I was in North Carolina recently and saw a beautiful rainbow to the east, while death and destruction were occurring underneath that storm.

The issuer of a municipal bond receives a cash purchase price at the time of issuance in exchange for a promise to repay the purchasing investors, or their transferees, (the bond holder) over time. Repayment periods can be as short as a few months (although this is very rare) to 20, 30, or 40 years, or even longer. The issuer typically uses proceeds from a bond sale to pay for capital projects or for other purposes it cannot or does not desire to pay for immediately with funds on hand. Tax regulations governing municipal bonds generally require all money raised by a bond sale to be spent on capital projects within three to five years of issuance.[13] Certain exceptions permit the issuance of bonds to fund other items, including ongoing operations and maintenance expenses in certain cases, the purchase of single-family and multi-family mortgages, and the funding of student loans, among many other things.
That's how bears and bulls first became linked in people's minds. In the 17th century, hunters would sell a bearskin before catching a bear. In the stock market, short sellers did the same thing. They sold shares of stock before they owned them. They bought the shares they day they were to deliver them. If share prices dropped, they would make a profit. They only made money in a bear market.
There has never been a more fiscally clueless team at the top than the Donald and his dimwitted Treasury secretary, Simple Steve Mnuchin. After reading the latter's recent claim that financing Uncle Sam's impending trillion dollar deficits will be a breeze, we now understand how he sat on the Board of Sears for 10-years and never noticed that the company was going bankrupt.
During the first three quarters of 2016 we were open to the possibility that a new cyclical gold bull market got underway in December of 2015, but over the past 18 months we have been consistent in our opinion that the December-2015 upward reversal in the US$ gold price did NOT mark the start of a bull market. Since late-2016 there have been some interesting rallies in the gold price, but at no time has there been a good reason to believe that we were dealing with a bull market. That’s still the case. The question is: what will it take to set a new cyclical gold bull market in motion? Read More
Globalization has been bad for these sections of society because it changed the relative value of capital and labor. When capital and goods could flow freely between the US and emerging market countries, the value of labor in the US fell dramatically. Today, we are at a point where labor share of income has fallen to an all-time low of 57%. That means a growing fraction of the gains have been going to capital, and those who have it.
Your correct. Lump into the mix of policies coming out of Sacramento and DC. RE in California is in for another leg down starting this summer. Problem will be even worse if QE is halted by the Fed. Any upward trend in home prices may start happening in the 2015-2020 time frame. The toxic sludge that was the no mortgage down to minimal down is still in the system. As long as that is the case, kiss any correction goodbye.

I think of velocity as a machine which money has to go through to produce economic activity. If the machine is on a low setting, it doesn’t matter how much money you put in—you won’t get growth. The falling velocity of money, which is at its lowest point since 1949, is another reason why growth has remained subdued in the post-financial crisis world.


This book will make self investors think about how to allocate their own investments. Markets have really fallen apart since the book went to press. Of course commodity sectors, international and emerging markets have fallen as much or further and the dollar has risen. I think Peter Schiff's analysis deserves a lot of merit and the selloffs in the overbought commodities and emerging markets areas gives investors a great opportunity to reanalyze their own portfolios. Great read!

The bear market of the 1970s, like the current bear market, was preceded by a long period of economic expansion. From the economy’s trough in 1961:Q1 to the peak in 1969:Q4, productivity growth averaged a strong 3.4% per year and inflation remained low—in the 2% to 3% range. As Figure 1 shows, the stock market anticipated this expansion, coming off a low in 1960:Q4 and reaching a peak in 1968:Q4. Over that period, the inflation-adjusted value of the S&P 500 increased by 7.8% per year; however, households’ inflation-adjusted net worth (total assets minus total liabilities) lagged behind somewhat, growing at an average annual rate of 6.1%.
RATE AND REVIEW this podcasthttps://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/What About Employers' Day?Labor Day is coming up on Monday it it annoys me that we just have a Labor Day and we don't have an Entrepreneur Day. We don't have a day to celebrate the employer. Why is that? The entrepreneurs are the unsung heroes of the American economy. I'm ...…
Many investors have missed out on what would have been extremely successful investments over the past several years because the stocks they like always seemed too expensive. If you like a stock's prospects but are convinced that its current valuation is just too high, put it on your wish list, along with a price at which you'd be comfortable buying shares. Then, if a bear market pushes the prices of the stocks you like lower, you'll be ready to make investments that you're comfortable holding for the long run. This can actually make you look forward to bear markets and the mouth-watering investment opportunities they can offer.
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/Surrendered Rest of Post-Election Gains in One DayAs I thought, it didn't take long for the markets to surrender all of the post-election gains. The Dow Jones today was down 602 points, so we've already lost it. It took one day. On my podcast on Friday I said ...…
Yes, first-quarter gross domestic product projections have fallen after weak readings on retail sales and other key data, but the Fed is confident that any slowdown will be temporary, stating simply that "the economic outlook has strengthened recently". With that, the Fed is acknowledging the strength of the prior three quarters, as well as the likely benefits from the recently enacted tax reform and massive deficit spending.
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