“This may seem old-fashioned, but there are skills to be learned when kids aren’t told what to do,” said Dr. Michael Yogman, a Harvard Medical School pediatrician who led the drafting of the call to arms. Whether it’s rough-and-tumble physical play, outdoor play or social or pretend play, kids derive important lessons from the chance to make things up as they go, he said. Read More

It depends on whether they need short-term cash at their disposal. For millennials just getting going on their 401ks, it's probably a good time to boost contributions or shift the mix of funds in retirement accounts to be more aggressive (younger investors should usually be fairly aggressive anyway, since they have decades to recover from short-term bear markets).

Following a recent barrage of negativity from former Lehman trader and current Bloomberg macro commentator, Mark Cudmore, who warned that stocks are likely to continue sliding as a short squeeze in bonds sends yields lower, overnight his Bloomberg Markets Live colleague and macro commentator, Garfield Reynolds, echoed Cudmore's growing pessimism, urging readers to "Rest Up This Easter Because Markets Face an Ugly Q2"  and that "the worst for markets is yet to come" for four reasons he lists below.
First I said I believed the US stock market would plunge in January, but I also said that January would not be the biggest drop, but just the first plunge that begins a global economic collapse: the big trouble for the economy and the stock market, I said, would show up in “early summer.” That’s when the stock market crash that began in January would take its second big leg down, and global economic cracks would become big enough that few could deny them. Read More
If you believe that there will be a significant change in global economic paradigms over the next 10 years, consider this book as part of developing an applicable investment strategy. Basically the author is focusing on commodities as they will do well in an inflationary period and, reading between the lines, commodities never go to zero (unless one is so leveraged up that one is forced to sell when commodities sell). Fortunately for us small investors the author does provide a road map to utilize his strategy by way of ETFs. With the government rolling the printing presses to shore up and stimulate our economy, inflation will result. This book examines the issues with inflation and how to invest in response.
Erik:     Now this massive, massive accumulation of debt in the United States – people like you and I can say this is crazy, the rate that it’s happening at – but, holy cow, look at China. I mean, they’re in a whole different category of rate of accumulation of national debt. It seems to me like they’re trying to almost race the United States to who can get more over-indebted faster.
The Accountable Capitalism ActElizabeth Warren unveiled her new idea in an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal. It is her new bill, called the Accountable Capitalism Act. Of course, I have said this before, there is no truth in advertising when it comes to legislation. Whenever Congress passes a bill, the name of the bill is generally the opposite ...…
When the market started falling, I was tormented by the prospect that it was just another January 29-February 9 blip. That is, a tease for the bears which would simply result in bitter disappointment. Almost the entire world felt this way, and with good reason: the bears have been cheated for nine solid years, and the BTFD crowd has been winning, so why should it be any different this time? Why not sustain such a thing until, oh, the year 2397? Read More

For context, consider the last three bear markets. The most recent one, which lasted for 517 days from October 2007 to March 2009, saw a whopping 57% plunge in the S&P 500. During the 929-day bear market from March 2000 to October 2002, the benchmark lost 49%. And during the relatively brief, 101-day period from August to December 1987, the index tumbled 34%.
Another Bear Market Before the ElectionThe odds are that we are going to have another bear market and we're going to have another recession and the odds are that both are going to start before the next election. What are the odds that Trump can be re-elected if we are in a recession and in a bear market? The only thing that Trump's got going fo ...…
Tech stocks that have been the strongest performer so far this year, in the meantime, did snap a four-day losing streak on Sep 10. But, let’s admit that such stocks are vulnerable to trade-related issues. Trump himself urged Apple Inc APPL to shift its production from China to the United States. The trillion-dollar company said that tariffs on China would hurt its revenues and impact a wide range of its products.
A Free-Thinker – someone whose mind is not bound by any chain, free to explore the great abyss unhindered by fear, emotion, or ideology. In reality, it is outside the box free-thinkers, who are the engines of social change and ingenuity, often leading society into new directions not yet seen before. They represent a voice of authenticity and uniqueness in a world that is all too filled with conformity and linear thinking. While the achievements are applauded by future generations, in the present they are often looked down upon, feared, laughed at, and even seen as crazy for their unique perspectives on life. It is often a lonely road for that of a truly unleashed free-thinker. Read More

Pension funds need an annual average of 6,6% income growth to pay for their promises. Over the last decade, they are getting less than 0,5%. Millions of retirees need to cover for this shortfall in their pension funds, and sell their financial assets, littl by little. It will become structural and widespread, as demographics will further strengthen in this direction (more retirees needing additional funds, and less working people saving for retirement).

Municipal bonds provide tax exemption from federal taxes and many state and local taxes, depending on the laws of each state. Municipal securities consist of both short-term issues (often called notes, which typically mature in one year or less) and long-term issues (commonly known as bonds, which mature in more than one year). Short-term notes are used by an issuer to raise money for a variety of reasons: in anticipation of future revenues such as taxes, state or federal aid payments, and future bond issuances; to cover irregular cash flows; meet unanticipated deficits; and raise immediate capital for projects until long-term financing can be arranged. Bonds are usually sold to finance capital projects over the longer term.


Monetary policy also continues to support economic growth because the real federal funds rate (after inflation) is zero, points out Darrell Riley, a strategist at T. Rowe Price. “The economy has a lot of momentum going into next year and monetary policy is still stimulative,” he says. “The economic cycle may go longer than we think. And a lot longer than we think.”
Good read. I have read several of Mr. Kratter's works. His rules for trading keeps you focused and I have learned some good lessons from each of them. While I am not much of a 'short seller', I have made some decent money recently trading put options. If we are headed for a bear market this is a good book to help you make some money while others are just gritting their teeth!

The U.S. Supreme Court held in 1895 that the federal government had no power under the U.S. Constitution to tax interest on municipal bonds.[20] But, in 1988, the Supreme Court stated the Congress could tax interest income on municipal bonds if it so desired on the basis that tax exemption of municipal bonds is not protected by the Constitution.[21] In this case, the Supreme Court stated that the contrary decision of the Court 1895 in the case of Pollock v. Farmers' Loan & Trust Co. had been "effectively overruled by subsequent case law."
For context, consider the last three bear markets. The most recent one, which lasted for 517 days from October 2007 to March 2009, saw a whopping 57% plunge in the S&P 500. During the 929-day bear market from March 2000 to October 2002, the benchmark lost 49%. And during the relatively brief, 101-day period from August to December 1987, the index tumbled 34%.

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.B - Free Report) , through its subsidiaries, engages in insurance, freight rail transportation, and utility businesses. The company has a Zacks Rank #2. In the last 60 days, three earnings estimates moved north, while none moved south for the current year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings increased 12.5% in the same period. The company’s expected earnings growth rate for the current quarter and year is 76.4% and 68.9%, respectively. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The financials were helping to lead the decline.  Again we have Morgan Stanley at a new 52-week low, down 3.3%. Goldman Sachs down 3.6%, a new 52-week low.  But really, the biggest losers on the day were the tech stocks. These have been the stand-outs. This is what has been holding up the market - the FAANG stocks, all of these technology infotech stocks - and a lot of people were actually describing them irrationally as a "safe havens".  I couldn't believe it when people were saying that tech stocks were the new "safe havens". When you hear stuff like that, you know you're close to the end.

Kirk Spano, the winner of the first MarketWatch competition to find the world’s next great investing columnist, is a registered investment advisor and founder of Bluemound Asset Management, LLC  which seeks to provide investors with greater safety, growth, income and freedom. Kirk’s biography and various business endeavors can be found at KirkSpano.com. Follow Kirk on Twitter @KirkSpano or at the Bluemound Facebook page for his columns, company analysis, letters, trade notes and what he is reading.
It depends on whether they need short-term cash at their disposal. For millennials just getting going on their 401ks, it's probably a good time to boost contributions or shift the mix of funds in retirement accounts to be more aggressive (younger investors should usually be fairly aggressive anyway, since they have decades to recover from short-term bear markets).
Dr. D: You have to understand what exchanges are and are not. An exchange is a central point where owners post collateral and thereby join and trade on the exchange. The exchange backs the trades with their solvency and reputation, but it’s not a barter system, and it’s not free: the exchange has to make money too. Look at the Comex, which reaches back to the early history of commodities exchange which was founded to match buyers of say, wheat, like General Mills, with producers, the farmers. But why not just have the farmer drive to the local silo and sell there? Two reasons: one, unlike manufacturing, harvests are lumpy. To have everyone buy or sell at one time of the year would cripple the demand for money in that season. This may be why market crashes happen historically at harvest when the demand for money (i.e. Deflation) was highest. Secondly, however, suppose the weather turned bad: all farmers would be ruined simultaneously. Read More

Identifying and measuring bear markets is both art and science. One common measure says that a bear market exists when at least 80% of all stock prices fall over an extended period. Another measure says that a bear market exists if certain market indexes -- such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 -- fall at least -15%. Of course, different market sectors may experience bear markets at different times. The bear market that occurred in the U.S. equity markets from 1929 to 1933 is one of the most famous bear markets in history.


321gold founder Bob Moriarty has been calling for a broader market crash to occur in October for the last few months. With the turmoil we’ve seen across global markets in the last couple of weeks it looks like Bob’s prognostication is playing out according to script. Energy & Gold caught up with Bob Moriarty at the end of last week to discuss topics ranging from gold & silver mining shares to what’s going on with Novo Resources to the Saudi assassination of Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul. Without further ado here is Energy & Gold’s October 2018 conversation with Bob Moriarty… Read More
Our analysis continues today with this research of a potential Short Squeeze in the SPX and other broader markets.  As you are probably well aware, we have been nailing the markets with our detailed analysis for quite a while.  Our Advanced Analytical tools have called nearly every move.  Nearly two weeks ago we called a massive market bottom to form in the US markets – well before just about anyone else even saw a bottom formation. In fact, we have already banked 10% profit on the first half of our best-cherry-picked setup for subscribers and it’s continuing to rally more.
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The result is banks and their attending insiders are a de facto Committee of Central Planners in the great Soviet style. What is fashionable and exciting to them can happen, and what they dislike or disapprove of for any reason can never happen. And once on a completely fiat system, this is how capital is allocated through our entire system: badly. Read More

2015–16 stock market selloff 18 August 2015 The Dow Jones fell 588 points during a two-day period, 1,300 points from August 18–21. On Monday, August 24, world stock markets were down substantially, wiping out all gains made in 2015, with interlinked drops in commodities such as oil, which hit a six-year price low, copper, and most of Asian currencies, but the Japanese yen, losing value against the United States dollar. With this plunge, an estimated ten trillion dollars had been wiped off the books on global markets since June 3. [30] [31] [32]
Add another nail into our society. Education isn’t to raise the cultural level of society, it’s ONLY to get a job. SAD. I suppose Taco Bell and MacDonalds should make prep “colleges” for thier future employees. That way they can work their “education” off and not receive wages. My good God, look at how enslaved we are as a people, yet we still vote against our own benefit. Sad. My $20,000 credit card that was used to try and stay in a over-priced home, I walked from, but if it was used to educate me, I would be bound forever. Anyone see a problem here?
I rate Clancy's Classic, early stories five stars. Hunt for Red October and Cardinal of the Kremlin are the best, Clear and Present Danger and Without Remorse are also good tales with good characters, well written. This book shows the weaker side of a formula followed for too long. The Ryan character is now fully emersed in a fantasy world and characters that were filled out in earlier books are now hollow shadows. And, the gratuitous sex and Jack Ryan's increasing use of foul language don't ring true compared to Clancy's earlier stories. I wonder if, at the time of this book, Clancy started using uncredited "collaborators" to boost his writing output? This story still provides some entertaining reading, but it is far less compelling than the earlier work that made Tom Clancy the highest standard in spy/techno adventures.
Why has real estate been such a drag on the overall Japanese economy?  First, Japan’s unemployment rate stabilized after these bubbles burst but it shifted to a large temporary or contract based employment economy.  One third of Japanese workers operate under this new world.  Relatively low security with employers and this has spiraled into lower income and money to finance home purchases.  The fact that the U.S. has such a large number of part-time workers and many of the new jobs being added are coming in lower paying sectors signifies that our economy is not supportive of the reasons that gave us solid home prices for many decades.  I think this is a key point many in the real estate industry fail to emphasize.  How can home prices remain inflated if incomes are moving lower?
Experienced market participants know that when all fear (or conversely, optimism) has been extinguished it is time to take a hard look at the contrarian view. In this report we will study the long term technical view of markets and set aside any assumptions about the future.  Technical analysis is both a science and an art, and applying appropriate measures of each, let's tune into the message of the markets with an open mind.

It often happens that gold and silver prices hit low points in June and December, before rallying sharply. The reason is not hard to understand: traders at the bullion banks close their books at the year and half-year ends and are almost certainly instructed by their superiors to reduce their trading positions to as low a level as possible. This is because the banks wish to report balance sheets that reflect low risk exposure for the purpose of making regulatory returns. Read More
Now that the raging robo-traders have tagged a double top at 2897 on the S&P 500 it isworth remembering that the booming stock market is the greatest Fake Bull in history. It is entirely a function of massive central bank liquidity injections into the financial system that have transformed Wall Street and other global trading venues into virtual gambling casinos.
Having lived through and traded the bear markets since 2000, I can attest to the accuracy of the descriptions provided - especially the psychological roller coaster that takes place. Forewarned is forearmed when the next bear market appears. The trading suggestions for bear markets range from the straightforward to the more advanced. I was slightly disappointed that there was no mention of using inverse ETFs in a bear market - perhaps a topic for a future bonus section.
Rate and Review This Podcast on iTunesDow Swings More Than 900 PointsWell we didn't have a Black Monday today, but we did have a pretty big selloff, especially if you measure the decline from the early morning pop to the late afternoon drop. I think it was better than a 900 point selloff. Earlier this morning the Dow Jones was up about 350 poin ...…
Silver soared recently and white metal’s rally was accompanied by a huge volume. Those who are new to the precious metals market will probably immediately view this as bullish as that’s what the classic technical analysis would imply. Silver is not a classic asset, though, and classic measures often don’t apply to it. One way to check the real implications of a given development is to examine the previous cases and see what kind of action followed. That’s what we’re going to do in today’s free analysis. Let’s start with silver’s daily chart. Read More
Extreme optimism just before the sell-off. We may not be there yet — but earlier this week, many of the largest companies were scoring 52-week highs, like Microsoft and Facebook. And according to this WSJ story, hordes of new individual investors have been diving into the stock market this year, finally shaking off their fear from 2008. It may not be “irrational exuberance” yet — but it’s trending in that direction

But as Sam Stewart of Seven Canyons Advisors points out, it’s never the clock that brings an end to an economic cycle. “It’s always excesses,” he says. Stewart sees “a hint” of excess here and there. But nothing like what we saw leading up to the housing-related market crisis 10 years ago. The kind of excesses that typically bring down the economy and the market may still be years away, he says.
(= carry) burden, arms → tragen; gift, message → bei sich tragen, mit sich führen; to bear away/back → mitnehmen/mit (sich) zurücknehmen; (through the air) → fort- or wegtragen/zurücktragen; the music was borne/borne away on the wind (liter) → die Musik wurde vom Wind weiter-/weggetragen; he was borne along by the crowd → die Menge trug ihn mit (sich)
“The declining cost of distance has the potential to trigger a major lifestyle shift away from city centers, similar in scope and impact to the US suburban exodus between 1950 and 1980. Based on that scenario, we would expect the move out of US urban centers between 2010 and 2025 to rise to about 6% of the population per decade, or up to 24 million people in total by 2025.”
The public agencies raising money through bonds—such as states, cities, and counties—are known as municipal issuers. The ability to raise such funds is an exercise of the municipal issuer's buying power. In all bond issuances, the issuer serves as the focal point and the head of the financing team, and oversees the transformation of an idea for a project into an issuance. However, in some cases, the bond measure for a public project must first be approved by voters.[12]
The FBI brass must have needed hazmat suits to scrub DOJ Inspector General Michael Horowitz’s report on agency misconduct in the 2016 elections, since the evidence of treason at the highest level of government was abundant. The truth is being hidden, and the result is a fiction representative of something out of Orwell’s ‘1984‘; and so, we must do everything within our power to force the issue in opposition to status quo voices in government and the media, who are not representing the U.S. Constitution and objectives based on our founding virtues, We must hold these criminals, these traitors, in the FBI, the DOJ and elsewhere within the government, accountable for illegally working to prevent Donald Trump from winning the election and afterwards trying to unseat him from power.  Read More
While that’s not the highest level of P/E ratio ever compared to the late 1990s, the median price-to- sales ratio is at the highest level ever at 2.5 times. That’s about three standard deviations above the norm. You don’t have to be a math whiz to know that three standard deviations are way outside of normal bounds. Bad things happen when the rubber band is stretched that far.
The key thing to realize is that the debt cycle plays the main role in the business cycle. When debt and interest rates are low, consumers and businesses start buying and expanding, which results in economic growth. When that goes on for a while and debt and interest rates get too high, consumers and businesses run into problems, which results in recessions and bear markets.
Bear markets typically begin when investor confidence begins to wane following a period of more favorable stock prices. As investors grow increasingly pessimistic about the state of the market, they tend to sell off their investments in order to avoid losing money from the falling stock prices they anticipate. This behavior can cause widespread panic, and when it does, stock prices can plummet. When this happens, trading activity tends to decrease, as do dividend yields. At some point during a bear market, investors will typically try to capitalize on low stock prices by reinvesting in the market. As trading activity increases and investor confidence begins to grow, a bear market can eventually transition to a bull market.
There’s a lot of uncertainty in our Government, with threats of Tariffs and trade wars, and with comments by our President with no facts to back up what he says (i.e. : the recent hoopla over a very strong Amazon. This company is actually helping the sales and visibility of many struggling stores, like Kohl's, and is actually bringing more monies into the USPS in their mutual agreements/contracts. And yet these facts are opposite from what Trump was claiming…even after his advisors told him his facts were inaccurate).
A more intelligent approach is to have assets like U.S. Treasuries during a bear market for U.S. equities.  Some short positions in the most popular funds are more aggressive and also will usually be profitable.  In the first year of a bear market for U.S. equities, commodity producers and emerging markets often outperform as they have already been doing since January 20, 2016 and which will likely continue through some point in 2018.
In fact, there is remarkably little evidence of organized bear raiding on the U.S. market following the October Crash. In order to dispel the myths, the economist of the New York Stock Exchange, Edward Meeker, published a book, entitled Short-Selling, in 1932. Meeker claimed that bears had not precipitated the crash. In November 1929, the NYSE found that around one hundredth of one percent of outstanding shares had been sold short. A later study in May 1931 found the short interest had risen to 3/5 of one percent of the total market value. More than ten times as many shares were held on margin. Nor could the stock exchange identify any bear raids in the subsequent market decline.

The world is familiar with FANG (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google), then came FAANG, Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Google. But are you familiar with BANNG? We would like to introduce to the world a countercyclical group of stocks that could be the biggest winners if FAANGs lose. BANNG = Barrick Gold, Agnico Eagle, Newmont Mining, Newcrest Mining, and Goldcorp. They are the collection of gold stocks that would appear in all the major gold stocks ETFs, major indices in their respective countries. They have the liquidity, market cap, dividends, along with being the group of some of the largest gold miners in the world. Barrick and Newmont are the largest gold miners in the world. Both FAANG and BANNG stocks are in a global equity fund managers MSCI ACWI Index (All Country World Index). Read More
I wrote an article titled “Are Derivative-Based ETFs Sowing The Seeds Of The Next Financial Crisis?” for Seeking Alpha a few months ago. I concluded that ETF’s don’t do what it says on the tin (mimic the underlying asset) and that they are slowly mutating into more complex financial instruments like collateralized debt obligations, which I drew disturbing parallels with the subprime mortgage crisis. It would be therefore foolish for any retail investors to see them as a panacea to gaining exposure to virtually any asset.
I rate Clancy's Classic, early stories five stars. Hunt for Red October and Cardinal of the Kremlin are the best, Clear and Present Danger and Without Remorse are also good tales with good characters, well written. This book shows the weaker side of a formula followed for too long. The Ryan character is now fully emersed in a fantasy world and characters that were filled out in earlier books are now hollow shadows. And, the gratuitous sex and Jack Ryan's increasing use of foul language don't ring true compared to Clancy's earlier stories. I wonder if, at the time of this book, Clancy started using uncredited "collaborators" to boost his writing output? This story still provides some entertaining reading, but it is far less compelling than the earlier work that made Tom Clancy the highest standard in spy/techno adventures.

We are nearly a year into Donald Trump’s presidency, and the economic numbers continue to look quite good.  On Monday, we learned that U.S. retail sales during the holiday season are projected to be way up compared to 2016.  Yes, there are all sorts of economic red flags popping up all over the place, and I write about them regularly.  And without a doubt, 2017 has been one of the worst years for brick and mortar retail stores in a very long time.  But when something good happens we should acknowledge that too, and many are giving President Trump credit for the fact that retail sales are projected to be up 4.9 percent this holiday season compared to last year... Read More

He remains confident stocks will see a fresh string of new highs in the final months of the year. Referring to history as a guide, Stovall noted that the fourth quarter is pretty strong during midterm election years, and seasonality points to more gains. He believes it will be easy for the S&P to grab another 80 points and break above 3,000 by year-end.


After the financial crisis and bear market of 2008-09, the Employee Benefit Research Institute did a study of how typical Americans fared with their retirement plan accounts at work. The study found that the average 401(k) account balance plunged by more than 25% during 2008, reflecting stock ownership in most plans. But those who kept participating consistently through 401(k) contributions reaped the rewards of the recovery, as the median balance rose at an impressive 16% annual pace over the four years following the bear market low.
The key thing to realize is that the debt cycle plays the main role in the business cycle. When debt and interest rates are low, consumers and businesses start buying and expanding, which results in economic growth. When that goes on for a while and debt and interest rates get too high, consumers and businesses run into problems, which results in recessions and bear markets.
And while bear markets typically don't last long (most bear markets in the past have only lasted around 10-15 months), they can mean big losses. Bear markets are not the same as market corrections -- when the market drops 10% from a previous high -- but they can be started by a market crash (which happens when prices drop 10% in one or two days).  
Eighth Interest Rate HikeAs expected, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the eighth time, today. The rate is now 2 to 2.25 percent, so I guess the midpoint is 2.125%. The move was highly anticipated, of course, even I expected the Fed to raise rates. At this point I had been expecting that for some time ever since the Fed first began ...…
Economists’ forecasts today, with very few exceptions, are a waste of time and downright misleading. In 2016, we saw this spectacularly illustrated with Brexit, when the IMF, OECD, the Bank of England and the UK Treasury all forecast a slump in the British economy in the event the referendum voted to leave the EU. While there are reasonable suspicions there was an element of disinformation in the forecasts, the fact they were so wrong is the important point. Yet, we still persist in paying economists to fail us. Read More

Wall Street owns the country. That was the opening line of a fiery speech that populist leader Mary Ellen Lease delivered around 1890. Franklin Roosevelt said it again in a letter to Colonel House in 1933, and Sen. Dick Durbin was still saying it in 2009. “The banks—hard to believe in a time when we’re facing a banking crisis that many of the banks created—are still the most powerful lobby on Capitol Hill,” Durbin said in an interview. “And they frankly own the place.”


In the last BullBear Market Report we took an in depth look at the very long term index charts and considered the possibility that a secular market shift could be approaching.  This examination was prompted by the parabolic action in the major US market indices, Dow Jones 30 and S&P 500, from November 2016 through January 2018.  During that parabolic run, upper trendline resistance was continually broken while lower trendlines increased their angles of ascent following each minor pullback.  On the Dow monthly and quarterly charts, the major long term trend channels going back to the  1932 or 1949 market price lows were either breached to the upside or nearly approached from below, depending on the charting of the channel.  Investor expectations ran hot in anticipation of the tax reform bill and even hotter after it was enacted.  The Dow ran nearly 50% higher and SPX leapt almost 40% in that time and was followed, as parabolic runs always are, with a dramatic collapse in February of this year.    Since all of this occurred in the context of a very long term Elliott Wave (V) count (the fifth wave of a move considered to be its final), it seemed appropriate to crack open the discussion on the potential for an eventual (though not immediate) epic bear market turn. Price and technical action since that time has continued to beg the question, and a current consideration of the technical evidence would, on balance, lead to the conclusion that the current bull market is in its latter stages.  Given that the setup is for an either long term bear market (correcting the bull market that began in 2011) or very long term bear market (correcting the entire secular period from 1949), it's more likely that the topping process has only just begun and that the bull wave has yet to fully complete.  Having said that, the probability is that upside will be relatively limited and that any further rallies will be subjected to selling distribution on an ongoing basis.  The charts tend to suggest that bull market conditions may drag out another 10-24 months before shifting into a bear market. Supporting these conclusions are significant developments in other areas of the financial markets and the domestic and global economies, including:
Jay Powell at least has worked in private equity. He knows a little bit about the business of buying low and selling high. Also he’s a native English speaker. If you listen to him, he speaks in everyday colloquial American English, unlike some of his predecessors. So I’m hopeful. But not so hopeful as to expect a radical departure from the policies we have seen.
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