When the financial media continuously repeat an opinion as fact, it spawns a mainstream narrative, which produces a powerful effect on investor psychology. One mainstream narrative, repeated with certainty, is low interest rates cause high stock market valuations, which is supported by the public statements of investment luminaries such as Warren Buffett.
All international problems are currently suspended, awaiting the results of the US mid-term elections. The partisans of the old international order are gambling on a change of majority in Congress and a rapid destitution of President Trump. If the man in the White House holds fast, the protagonists of the war against Syria will have to admit defeat and move on to other battle fields. On the other hand, if Donald Trump should lose the elections, the war on Syria will immediately be revived by the United Kingdom. Read More
While many analysts focus on the company’s profits or net income, I like to pay attention to its free cash flow.   Free cash flow is nothing more than subtracting capital expenditures from the company’s cash from operations.  Because the gold mining industry is very capital intensive, the company’s free cash flow is a better indicator of financial health rather than the net income. Read More
Smokey's debut poster was released on August 9, 1944, which is considered the character's birthday.[2][19][20] Overseen by the Cooperative Forest Fire Prevention Campaign (CFFP), the first poster was illustrated by Albert Staehle. In it Smokey was depicted wearing jeans and a campaign hat,[6][21] pouring a bucket of water on a campfire. The message underneath reads, "Smokey says – Care will prevent 9 out of 10 forest fires!" Knickerbocker Bears gained the license to produce Smokey Bear dolls in 1944.[22] Also in 1949, Forest Service worker Rudy Wendelin became the full-time campaign artist and he was considered Smokey Bear's "manager" until Wendelin retired in 1973.[2]

If you listened to Friday's podcast, I mentioned that I thought I would probably be doing a lot of podcasts this week. I did one yesterday, and I am doing another one today because my feeling about the stock market was confirmed today with an 831 point rout in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, down 3.15%. This is the biggest decline that the Dow has had since that 1000+ point drop that we had in February. I think it is maybe the third biggest down day ever, point-wise. Percentage-wise it's not even close.
Just like a secular bull market, a secular bear market is one that lasts between five and 25 years. And while the average length of a secular bear market is about 17 years, there may be smaller bull or bear markets within it. Still, the average bear market is much shorter -- usually under a year -- and so definitions of what constitutes a secular bear market vary. 
JOIN PETER at the New Orleans Investment Conferencehttps://neworleansconference.com/conference-schedule/A Very Volatile and Technically Weak Trading Day for the DowHere I am for the third day in a row doing a podcast. It's market volatility that has brought me to the mic yet again. The Dow Jones down 525 points; a very volatile and technically ...…

One new factor in today's market is that there is a constant inflow of incremental money from pension and individual retirement plans well in excess of whatever may have existed in the past. Also, in past rising markets, new equity supply would be forthcoming through equity offerings and equity mergers when prices started to indicate a rich valuation.
Still, there are a lot of unknowns. Would millions of Americans switching from urban to rural living ignite a baby boom and cure our demographic problems? It’s certainly not out of the question. After all, birthrates are substantially higher in rural areas. Plus, families could dramatically reduce their cost of living by moving out of cities, allowing them to feed more mouths.
It is a false premise that you can know when you’re in a bear market. Market observers are fond of looking at a downward sloping historical stock index chart and saying “the market is going down” or “we are in a bear market.” The truth is, the only thing you can say with certainty is that the market has gone down and perhaps we were in a bear market. Where it is going next or whether we are in a bear market is anyone’s guess.
The causes and characteristics of bear markets vary, but most financial theorists agree that economic cycles and investor sentiment both play a role in the creation and momentum of bear markets. In general, a weak or weakening economy -- indicated by low employment, low disposable income, and declining business profits -- ushers in a bear market. The existence of several new trading lows for well-known companies might also indicate that a bear market is occurring. It is important to note that government involvement affects bear markets. Changes in the federal funds rate or in various tax rates can encourage economic expansion or contraction, ultimately leading to bull or bear markets.
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/Very Negative Technical ActionWe had another roller coaster ride in the stock market today, with the Dow Jones ending down about 200 points, but that was well off the lows of the day. I think we were down about 350 points, or close to it, at the lows. But, mor ...…

Now, I wouldn’t be me if I didn’t throw in my own two Satoshis: Dr. D claims that “..everyone has an equal opportunity to solve the next calculation..”, but while that may perhaps have been sort of true at the very start, it isn’t now. It’s not true for the computerless or computer-illiterate, for those too poor to afford the electricity required by bitcoin mining, and for various other -very large- groups of people.  Read More
It’s just amazing what is happening in China. And I think that it represents a clear and present danger to everyone with money at risk. Not just the Chinese. Not just the real estate markets in countries favored by the Chinese, such as Australia. Not just in the industrial metals markets – China has been kind of 100% of the demand for the margin for steel and the like. But this debt thing is a very, very important low-hanging dark cloud over the world, and we have all gotten used to it.
For generations, advocates of private gun ownership have been fighting exhaustively through political channels to protect their right to keep and bear arms. Gun owners even have one of the strongest lobby groups in Washington, the highly disappointing NRA. Yet over the years, gun rights continue to diminish in America, despite the constant political campaigns by the NRA and politicians that claim to support gun rights. Read More
*** “Treasury officials said their decision to halt the issuance of the 30-year bonds was intended to save the government money,” writes Gretchen Mortgensen in the NY Times. “Traders scoffed at that explanation, viewing the move as an almost desperate attempt to push down long- term interest rates, and prod both corporate and individual borrowers to spend again.”
Publisher’s Note: If you’re not averaging double-digit percentage gains on your investments, it’s worth your time to check out Nicholas Vardy’s portfolio strategy. You can learn about his two most recent recommendations — both up over 50% in just the last few months — along with his favorite “wealth-compounding machine” — here in his updated research report. Click here to keep reading.
bear, suffer, endure, abide, tolerate, stand mean to put up with something trying or painful. bear usually implies the power to sustain without flinching or breaking. forced to bear a tragic loss suffer often suggests acceptance or passivity rather than courage or patience in bearing. suffering many insults endure implies continuing firm or resolute through trials and difficulties. endured years of rejection abide suggests acceptance without resistance or protest. cannot abide their rudeness tolerate suggests overcoming or successfully controlling an impulse to resist, avoid, or resent something injurious or distasteful. refused to tolerate such treatment stand emphasizes even more strongly the ability to bear without discomposure or flinching. unable to stand teasing

As longtime readers know, my work aims to 1) explain why the status quo -- the socio-economic-political system we inhabit -- is unsustainable, divisive, and doomed to collapse under its own weight and 2) sketch out an alternative Mode of Production/way of living that is sustainable, consumes far less resources while providing for the needs of the human populace -- not just for our material daily bread but for positive social roles, purpose, hope, meaning and opportunity, needs that are by and large ignored or marginalized in the current system. Read More


Before I get into my analysis and the reasons we are heading towards the Seneca Cliff, I wanted to share the following information.  I haven’t posted much material over the past week because I decided to spend a bit of quality time with family.  Furthermore, a good friend of mine past away which put me in a state of reflection.  This close friend was also very knowledgeable about our current economic predicament and was a big believer in owning gold and silver.  So, it was a quite a shame to lose someone close by who I could chat with about these issues. Read More


I have been following Peter Schiff for awhile now. As a result of his first book, I was able to get my retirement out of US stocks before the Oct '08 crash. With this book, I was able fine tune my financial plans and investments and help a number of friends do the same. In the midst of the worst economic mess since the Great Depression, I haven't lost any wealth (I am up 2% overall in the past 6 months) and I am poised to take advantage of further downturns. You can read all the books you want but none of it will do any good unless you ACT, and this book gives you a good plan of action. It is easy-to-read and understand, and Peter's writing style is no-nonsense, sprinkled with some humor. He clearly has a firm grasp of Austrian economics and the crisis we find ourself in. A great read that you will pass around to friends.
Tech stocks that have been the strongest performer so far this year, in the meantime, did snap a four-day losing streak on Sep 10. But, let’s admit that such stocks are vulnerable to trade-related issues. Trump himself urged Apple Inc APPL to shift its production from China to the United States. The trillion-dollar company said that tariffs on China would hurt its revenues and impact a wide range of its products.
It could be the arrival of a “sudden stop”. As I explain in Escape from the Central Bank Trap (BEP, 2017), a sudden stop happens when the extraordinary and excessive flow of cheap US dollars into emerging markets suddenly reverses and funds return to the U.S. looking for safer assets. The central bank “carry trade” of low interest rates and abundant liquidity was used to buy “growth” and “inflation-linked” assets in emerging markets. Read More
The global financial crisis of 2008 was essentially caused by excessive leverage, a loss of confidence in real estate credit and a resulting sudden collapse of liquidity in the financial system. The central bank response was to lower interest rates and flood markets with liquidity. Since then, debt loads have increased more than 30% and the percentage of higher risk credit has also grown sharply. Many analysts believe that another crisis is possible due to a combination of enormous leverage and deteriorating credit standards. What will happen to gold if we have another financial crisis?

As the stock markets continue setting records day after day, many investors are becoming more and more concerned about the potential over-valuation and a possible market correction. The widely-followed cyclically-adjusted price-earnings ratio (Shiller PE) reached 31.2, almost twice as much as the historical average of 16.8. While market valuation may not be a good timing indicator (see If Jeremy Grantham Has a Changing Heart on Value Investing, Should You?),  does it have any impact on the severity of a bear market when it happens?


Many BullionStar customers are already be familiar with using Bitcoin when buying and selling gold, silver and platinum bars and coins, as BullionStar has been accepting Bitcoin as a form of payment since May 2014. BullionStar was one of the first bullion dealers worldwide to offer customers the ability to buy and sell physical precious metals using Bitcoin. Now with the addition of Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash and Litecoin, BullionStar is again one of the first bullion dealers in the world to offer customers the ability to transact in these other leading cryptocurrencies for both buy and sell orders.Read More
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.B - Free Report)	, through its subsidiaries, engages in insurance, freight rail transportation, and utility businesses. The company has a Zacks Rank #2. In the last 60 days, three earnings estimates moved north, while none moved south for the current year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings increased 12.5% in the same period. The company’s expected earnings growth rate for the current quarter and year is 76.4% and 68.9%, respectively. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

For the past few weeks, I’ve been intensely focused on what I believe to be a double cross in COMEX gold futures by JPMorgan of other trading entities, particularly other commercial participants. I would define the double cross as JPMorgan positioning itself so flawlessly so as to be nearly perfect in its execution, including the avoidance of any widespread knowledge of what has occurred. After all, a double cross always includes the element of surprise and this one promises to be a doozy. Read More
We have not seen Wall Street this jumpy since just before the great financial crisis of 2008.  As I have explained so many times before, when the waters are calm and there is low volatility, markets tend to go up.  And when the waters are choppy and volatility starts to spike, markets tend to go down.  That is why the behavior that we have been witnessing from investors during the first two quarters of 2018 is so alarming.  A high level of market turnover is often a sign of big trouble ahead, and according to Bloomberg our financial markets “are churning at the fastest rate since 2008″…Read More
The chart formation built in the course of the early February sell-off and subsequent rebound continues to look ominous, so we are closely watching the proceedings. There are now numerous new divergences in place that clearly represent a major warning signal for the stock market. For example, here is a chart comparing the SPX to the NDX (Nasdaq 100 Index) and the broad-based NYA (NYSE Composite Index). Read More
A bear market is traditionally defined as a period of negative returns in the broader market to the magnitude of between 15-20%, or more. During this type of market, most stocks see their share prices fall, often substantially. There are several strategies investors employ when they believe that this market is about to occur or is occurring, and they typically depend on the investor's risk tolerance, investment time horizon and objectives.
Obviously nobody knows for sure. That is what makes investing interesting and sometimes downright scary. But we need to parse through the data available and find where our convictions lie. This article is meant to give readers all the ammunition they need to discern a position for themselves but we will also provide our assessment at the end. It is fine to disagree. We need investors on both sides of the argument. That is what makes up a marketplace in the first place.
As longtime readers know, my work aims to 1) explain why the status quo -- the socio-economic-political system we inhabit -- is unsustainable, divisive, and doomed to collapse under its own weight and 2) sketch out an alternative Mode of Production/way of living that is sustainable, consumes far less resources while providing for the needs of the human populace -- not just for our material daily bread but for positive social roles, purpose, hope, meaning and opportunity, needs that are by and large ignored or marginalized in the current system. Read More
Even Jack Bogle himself, founder of Vanguard and one of the earliest proponents of buy-and-hold index investing, sidestepped much of the Dotcom bubble in his personal portfolio and has spoken about this before. He noticed, correctly, that the S&P was utterly, ridiculously, overvalued, while bonds were reasonably-priced. So, he actively reduced his equity exposure substantially, especially because at his advanced age he wanted to avoid a major stock market crash.

The SEC crackdown on ICOs has, apparently, finally extended to one of the industry's most enthusiastic and prolific promoters: former software security pioneer John McAfee, who has earned a reputation for outrageous behavior (including promising in July 2017 to eat his dick on national television if bitcoin doesn't hit $500,000 in three years) in recent years.
TheEconomiCollapse.com's Michael Snyder thinks so. For a very long time, Ron Paul has been one of my political heroes.  His willingness to stand up for true constitutional values and to keep saying “no” to the Washington establishment over and over again won the hearts of millions of American voters, and I wish that there had been enough of us to send him to the White House either in 2008 or in 2012.  To this day, I still wish that we could make his classic work entitled “End The Fed” required reading in every high school classroom in America.  He was one of the few members of Congress that actually understood economics, and it is very sad that he has now retired from politics.  With the enormous mess that Washington D.C. has become, we sure could use a lot more statesmen like him right now. Read More
Now a money manager at Janus Henderson, Gross was the co-founder of Pimco, which he helped build into the world’s largest bond fund manager and was dubbed the “bond king” by the financial media. In his note, Gross said he expected the 10-year yield to rise above 2.75% by the end of this year. But he waved away worries that rising yields would deal pain to investors, saying higher yields could sit along with slightly positive returns for bonds.
The fundamental drivers for Gold and the US Dollar are similar and that is why they typically trend together. Negative and/or falling real rates drive Gold and the same drives the greenback though with respect to differentials between the other competing currencies. When real rates are rising or strong in the US that is bearish for Gold and bullish for the US Dollar. The opposite is also true. And with the US Dollar being the global reserve currency, it naturally competes with Gold, which is an alternative. All being said, history as well as recent action suggests that weakness in the stock market is more crucial to Gold’s future than weakness in the US Dollar.  Read More
The environment surrounding the historic expansion of the U.S. economy from March 1992 through March 2001 mirrors in many ways the expansion of the 1960s. After a somewhat subdued start, productivity perked up to average 2.4% per year from 1995 onward. This improved productivity growth was accompanied by strong economic growth and a surging stock market, while inflation remained relatively low. Returning to Figure 1, we see that a bottom for the (inflation-adjusted) stock market occurred in October 1990, followed by a “bull” market that accelerated rapidly after 1994, fueled by the high-tech boom. From December 1994 to its peak in August 2000, the stock market increased in value by $9.7 trillion, with the S&P 500 rising by an extraordinary 226%, or by 40% per year, for an average annual increase after adjusting for inflation of 34%. (See Lansing 2002 for a discussion of these valuations.) From 1994:Q4 to 2000:Q3, the inflation-adjusted net worth per capita of households increased by over 8% per year, with financial assets regaining prominence in households’ asset portfolios. By 2000:Q3, they comprised slightly more than 70% of the total. The market peaked in August 2000, and over the next two years, the inflation-adjusted value of the S&P 500 fell more than 43%.

There is considerable confusion between the verbs bear and bare. It may help to remember that the verb bare has only one meaning: "to uncover," as in "bare your shoulders" and "a dog baring its teeth." All other uses of the verb are for bear: "bearing children," "the right to bear arms," "bearing up under the stress/weight," "can't bear the thought," "bear south," "it bears repeating."
Members of the American libertarian movement, particularly extremist preppers, are often associated with a belief that a complete breakdown in society is the only outcome from government economic policies and will lead to complete social disintegration. At the centre of their concerns is monetary destruction, with other issues, such as the erosion of personal freedom and the right to bear arms, important but peripheral. They cite history, particularly the hyperinflationary collapses, from Rome to Zimbabwe, and now Venezuela. They draw on Austrian economic theory, which fans their dislike of government and their expectation of total chaos. Read More
3. The demographics are turning against the probability of sustaining the bull market rise in consumption. As people age and retire we tend to spend less on consumer products and more on health care and insurance. Average spending per household fall precipitously after age 65 and the baby boomer generation is crossing this milestone in record numbers.
In their latest report on commodity prices, French bank Natixis outlined why precious metals have a strong couple of years ahead of them as the U.S. economy slows. According to an article on Kitco, the report states that after a remarkable year, the dollar will finally begin to trend lower as the Fed puts the brakes on its tightening cycle. Read More
A campaign featuring Smokey and the slogan "Smokey Says – Care Will Prevent 9 out of 10 Forest Fires" began in 1944. His later slogan, "Remember... Only YOU Can Prevent Forest Fires" was created in 1947 and was associated with Smokey Bear for more than five decades.[6][7] In April 2001, the message was officially updated to "Only You Can Prevent Wildfires."[6] in response to a massive outbreak of wildfires in natural areas other than forests (such as grasslands), and to clarify that Smokey is promoting the prevention of unplanned outdoor fire versus prescribed fires.[8][4] According to the Ad Council, 80% of outdoor recreationists correctly identified Smokey Bear's image and 8 in 10 recognized the campaign PSAs.[9]
Wall Street owns the country. That was the opening line of a fiery speech that populist leader Mary Ellen Lease delivered around 1890. Franklin Roosevelt said it again in a letter to Colonel House in 1933, and Sen. Dick Durbin was still saying it in 2009. “The banks—hard to believe in a time when we’re facing a banking crisis that many of the banks created—are still the most powerful lobby on Capitol Hill,” Durbin said in an interview. “And they frankly own the place.”
MACRO VOICES is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information presented in MACRO VOICES should NOT be construed as investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. The opinions expressed on MACRO VOICES are those of the participants. MACRO VOICES, its producers, and hosts Erik Townsend and Nathan Egger shall NOT be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on MACRO VOICES.
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