Dr. D: The money, the unaccountable, uninhibited release of tokens can do more than just buy centuries of hard labor in seconds, it‘s also a method of control. Banks, our present issuers of money, can approve or destroy businesses by denying loans. They can do this to individuals, like denying loans to unpopular figures, or to whole sectors, like gun shops. They can also offer money for free to Amazon, Facebook, and Tesla, which have no profitable business model or any hope of getting one, and deny loans to power plants, railroads, farms, and bridges as they fall into the Mississippi. 


George lays the groundwork for an economics which places entrepreneurial creativity—the creator of prosperity—at the heart of the economy. It is an economics that appreciates the powerful connection between chaos and creativity, between the disorder and surprise which engender growth. This recognition is the first step toward changing the policies that govern our nation and affect entrepreneurs and investors.
In 2014, the campaign celebrated Smokey’s 70th birthday, with new birthday-themed television, radio, print, outdoor, and digital PSAs that continued the 2013 campaign “Smokey Bear Hug.” The campaign depicted Smokey rewarding his followers with a hug, in acknowledgement of using the proper actions to prevent wildfires. In return, outdoor–loving individuals across the nation were shown reciprocating with a birthday bear hug in honor of his 70 years of service. Audiences were encouraged to join in by posting their own #SmokeyBearHug online. The campaign also did a partnership with Disney’s Planes that same year.[61]
Now that the raging robo-traders have tagged a double top at 2897 on the S&P 500 it isworth remembering that the booming stock market is the greatest Fake Bull in history. It is entirely a function of massive central bank liquidity injections into the financial system that have transformed Wall Street and other global trading venues into virtual gambling casinos.
Ten-year Treasury yields jumped 13 bps this week to 2.48%, the high going back to March. German bund yields rose 12 bps to 0.42%. U.S. equities have been reveling in tax reform exuberance. Bonds not so much. With unemployment at an almost 17-year low 4.1%, bond investors have so far retained incredible faith in global central bankers and the disinflation thesis.

Still, bear market rallies may seem as if they are a rising bull market, but until the market shows gains of 20% from the bear market low, it can't be considered a bull market. And, while bear markets occur during the contraction phase of the business cycle, bull markets typically happen when the business cycle is expanding (shown by several indicators, like lower inflation and increased employment, among others). 


What I think fed this perception by clients was that they thought these were normal markets. I graduated with a Finance degree in May 1982. The S&P 500 had only one negative year of return between 1982 through 1999, and that was 1990, and that was triggered by the start of the First Gulf War - and at the time, although we didn't know it, we were on the verge of the first banking crisis.
Municipal bonds have much higher interest rates compared to their FDIC-insured counterparts: CDs, savings accounts, money market accounts, and others. Over the last five years, the average interest rate return on municipal bonds has hovered around 4.5%,[16] while CDs of similar lengths have been at 1.5%.[17] Among other factors, this is a result of the longer, fixed return periods. Unlike stocks and other non-dated investments, municipal bonds have fixed rates and are far less liquid. As a general rule, municipal bonds with longer time to maturity have higher coupon rates.
Also, matter can neither be created or distroyed. Is the same true with wealth? Do we have a finite “pie” of wealth that moves from “family” to “family” over time? Let’s consider a given “life cycle” of family wealth. 2 to 3 generations work to build wealth. 2 to 3 generations maintain that wealth. 2 to 3 generations blow the family fortune…. in general. All of this happening when other “families” are building, some other “family” is blowing it.
Misguided Tweet About PfizerAnother misguided tweet that came out today from the President had to do with drugs:Pfizer & others should be ashamed that they have raised drug prices for no reason. They are merely taking advantage of the poor & others unable to defend themselves, while at the same time giving bargain basement prices to other count ...…

Rather than write on a planned topic, I received at least 20 e-mails yesterday on the same subject so had to switch gears. The e-mails were all panicky because an analyst who works in the precious metals industry suggested that silver will not perform as gold will in the coming reset. I feel the need to address this because I believe it is faulty analysis and may have motivation behind it. I will not name the analyst but can be easily discerned.


Gotta call that statement and the article what it is: terminally myopic fluff per the status quo's refusal (inability?) to get fundamental. One fundamental is to invoke this knowledge / wisdom / truth: “We need scarcely add that the contemplation in natural science of a wider domain than the actual leads to a far better understanding of the actual.” Sir Arthur Eddington


Thank you for visiting the homepage of this five-part series on the individuals and ideas shaping my worldview. I have gained a lot of knowledge from these truly great minds, and the purpose of this series is to share what I have learned with you, my readers. I’m confident that the writings that follow will help you better understand the trends shaping the future of financial markets, and our economy.

In 1979, President Carter's administration ceased diplomatic recognition of the government in Taiwan as independent of mainland China, as the U.S. and China normalized relations. The Chinese government has a "One China" policy, where the role of Taiwan is concerned. As for Taiwan, the "island province" is more than autonomous, the island has its own government and its own head of state.


And more to the point, even though tech has on average done well over the last 20 years, most tech firms have gone bankrupt. Buying the market and a broad basket of companies isn’t speculating. It is just assuming that, like always, in the long-term, the biggest 100-200-300 companies in the US or elsewhere will be worth more money in 10-20-30 years than today.
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So when the sky really starts to fall, smart places for serious money could be a simple money market (cash equivalent).  You won't make much, but at least you won't lose anything either!  Think of it like a lightning storm over a football field where your investments are the players on the field.  Sometimes it's best to put your team in the locker room so no one gets hit by lightning!

Twice in the past the price of silver has risen in a short period to $50. It happened in 1980 during the Hunt brother’s manipulation and again three decades later in April 2011, when the price rose to nearly $50. Prior to the price run up in 2011, I wrote that a move to $50 was more than possible, since it had already occurred and that proved such a move was possible. Something that has happened twice before can certainly occur again. One thing that makes it probable is that there was three times the amount of silver above ground in 1980 than there is today. The six billion ounces that existed in 1980 has shrunk to two billion ounces of industry standard 1000 ounces bars. The amount of world money creation and buying power has increased exponentially over the past seven years. Read More

Bear markets can occur in any asset class. In stocks, a bear market is measured by the Dow, the S&P 500, and the NASDAQ. In bonds, a bear market could occur in U.S. Treasurys, municipals bonds, or corporate bonds. Bear markets also happen currencies, gold, and commodities such as oil. Price drops in consumer goods, such as computers, automobiles, or TVs, are not bear markets. Instead, that's called deflation.
9/11 Apartheid Asia Bailout Bankruptcy Bible China CIA Collapse corruption Crime Currency depopulation Devaluation ethnic_cleansing Europe Eurozone Fascism FederalReserve France Fraud Gaza genocide Germany Global_Warming Gold GreatDepression Greece Hyper-inflation Illuminati Iran Iraq Israel Japan Korea Libya Martial_Law Meltdown MIC Middle_East MSM NATO Nazi Nephilim New_World_Order nuclear Obama Occult oil Palestine Police_State propaganda Psyop Riots Russia Satan Saudi_Arabia Silver stock_Market Syria Terrorism Trade Treasury Turkey UFO UK Ukraine UN Unemployment Unrest US Vaccine War weather Zionism
In the S&P 500 chart below, you will see the long-term patterns going back to 1970. The "strategic number" is an algorithmic measure comprised of multiple factors which measure risk. When it is close to 100, risk is very high. When it is close to 0, risk is very low. In between, risk is about normal, and trend following can be employed. The "strategic risk range" shows the rough range that the market is likely to be in during the intermediate term.
The gold price already bottomed, says InvestingHaven’s research team. The upside potential in gold’s price near term is 7 percent while gold’s price may rise 12 pct into 2019. Best case, though, if gold would get a bid with global markets continuing their sell-off we may see 25% upside. That’s when silver miners will do exceptionally well, similar to their epic rally in 2016.
The truth is California has been living off phony home equity gains for 40 years. Nothing was ever produced to create this money, Nothing. But, they all spent this counterfit cash into the economy like it was real. California has flourished under this scheme of ever increasing Real Estate prices, but the free ride is over. Now they’ll have to learn how to actually produce something to have prosperity.

Forget the porn star scandals and possible Russian collusion in an election over fifteen months ago. Most Americans don’t give a damn about either but from turning on cable news, you would think that’s all that is happening in the world. Cable news is out for ratings and those kind of things sell. What you won’t see much of are some of the harsh realities facing Americans and preventing us from becoming truly great. Read More
It’s not a coincidence that populism emerged as a political force in both the 1920s–1930s, and again today. In each case, people at the bottom could tell the economy wasn’t working in their favor. The best tool they had to do something about it was the vote, so they elected FDR then, and Trump now. Two very different presidents, but both responsive to the most intensely angered voters of their eras.
The phrases were first published in the 18th-century book, "Every Man His Own Broker," by Thomas Mortimer. Two 19th century artists made the terms even more popular. Thomas Nast published cartoons about the slaughter of the bulls on Wall Street in Harper's Bazaar. In 1873, William Holbrook Beard painted the stock market crash using bulls and bears. (Sources: "Symbolism of the Bull and Bear," Federal Reserve Banks of New York. "Origin of Bulls and Bears," Motley Fool. "Bulls and Bears," Valentine Capital Asset Management.
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/Dead Cat Bounce Flattens OutThe Dow Jones was down a little over 200 today, closing back below 26,000. NASDAQ composite down 124 - that's a bigger percentage decline, 1.7%, approximately. The Composite is being led lower by the tech stocks, particularly the FA ...…
The phrases were first published in the 18th-century book, "Every Man His Own Broker," by Thomas Mortimer. Two 19th century artists made the terms even more popular. Thomas Nast published cartoons about the slaughter of the bulls on Wall Street in Harper's Bazaar. In 1873, William Holbrook Beard painted the stock market crash using bulls and bears. (Sources: "Symbolism of the Bull and Bear," Federal Reserve Banks of New York. "Origin of Bulls and Bears," Motley Fool. "Bulls and Bears," Valentine Capital Asset Management.
Erik Townsend welcomes Jim Grant to MacroVoices. Erik and Jim discuss new Fed governor Powell, treasury yields and how far the FED go before something breaks. They discuss his outlook on inflation, gold, junk bonds, China and the drivers of long term debt cycles. They reflect on History and what happened when the FED did not bail out the banks in 1920 and considerations on what actions the US government can take to deal with the debt.

Warren Buffett’s favorite indicator is telling us that stocks are more overvalued right now than they have ever been before in American history.  That doesn’t mean that a stock market crash is imminent.  In fact, this indicator has been in the “danger zone” for quite some time.  But what it does tell us is that stock valuations are more bloated than we have ever seen and that a stock market crash would make perfect sense.  So precisely what is the “Buffett Indicator”?  Well, it is actually very simple to calculate.  You just take the total market value of all stocks and divide it by the gross domestic product. Read More
“In retrospect, the spark might seem as ominous as a financial crash, as ordinary as a national election, or as trivial as a Tea Party. The catalyst will unfold according to a basic Crisis dynamic that underlies all of these scenarios: An initial spark will trigger a chain reaction of unyielding responses and further emergencies. The core elements of these scenarios (debt, civic decay, global disorder) will matter more than the details, which the catalyst will juxtapose and connect in some unknowable way. If foreign societies are also entering a Fourth Turning, this could accelerate the chain reaction. At home and abroad, these events will reflect the tearing of the civic fabric at points of extreme vulnerability – problem areas where America will have neglected, denied, or delayed needed action.” – The Fourth Turning– Strauss & Howe  Read More

A few days after we reported that the investment vehicle of Sweden's most powerful family, the Wallenbergs, has begun preparations for the next global crisis, concerns about the future have spread to one of China's largest state-backed asset manager which runs about HK$139 billion ($18 billion) in assets, and which said it was preparing to sell shares in as many as 30 stocks on concern that valuations worldwide have peaked. Read More
In fact, there is remarkably little evidence of organized bear raiding on the U.S. market following the October Crash. In order to dispel the myths, the economist of the New York Stock Exchange, Edward Meeker, published a book, entitled Short-Selling, in 1932. Meeker claimed that bears had not precipitated the crash. In November 1929, the NYSE found that around one hundredth of one percent of outstanding shares had been sold short. A later study in May 1931 found the short interest had risen to 3/5 of one percent of the total market value. More than ten times as many shares were held on margin. Nor could the stock exchange identify any bear raids in the subsequent market decline.
The first part of my answer is technical, what do the charts show. Well, a normal 50% DJIA retracement of its big gains from January 2016 to January 2018 would take this index down to 21070 and exactly fulfill the minimum requirement of a bear market, i.e. that the DJI falls 20%. The DJI now stands a little above 23500, about 12% down from its peak.
Of course, in that event, the FED will probably stand ready to provide liquidity to market makers and banks, but now, after the shame of the 2007–2008 bailouts, they would face much more political heat if they do try to prop up the market now. So, they will likely hesitate and that means there first must be a panic… Unless Powell surprises me and preempts this and says next week that the FED will stand by to stabilize the markets.

Gotta call that statement and the article what it is: terminally myopic fluff per the status quo's refusal (inability?) to get fundamental. One fundamental is to invoke this knowledge / wisdom / truth: “We need scarcely add that the contemplation in natural science of a wider domain than the actual leads to a far better understanding of the actual.” Sir Arthur Eddington
How fast and furious it goes will depend on many things and is somewhat hard to predict. The tax cut means a lotta corporate cash is coming back for stock buybacks. This counteracts the trend from the Fed portfolio decline. On the other hand more and more being are seeing the professional market cheerleaders for what they are - con artists or children. So that trickle could easily be overwhelmed by the thundering waterfall of people whose eyes have been opened up to the overwhelming heroic assumptions required to keep this bubble inflated this high.
Feb. 5, 2018 10:57 AM ET| Includes: BXUB, BXUC, CRF, DDM, DIA, DOG, DXD, EEH, EPS, EQL, FEX, FWDD, HUSV, IVV, IWL, IWM, JHML, JKD, OTPIX, PPLC, PPSC, PSQ, QID-OLD, QLD, QQEW, QQQ, QQQE, QQXT, RSP, RWL-OLD, RWM, RYARX, RYRSX, SBUS, SCAP, SCHX, SDOW, SDS, SFLA, SH, SMLL, SPDN, SPLX, SPUU, SPXE, SPXL, SPXN, SPXS, SPXT, SPXU-OLD, SPXV, SPY, SQQQ, SRTY, SSO, SYE, TALL, TNA, TQQQ, TWM, TZA, UDOW, UDPIX, UPRO, URTY, USA, USSD, USWD, UWM, VFINX, VOO, VTWO, VV, ZLRG
“Government has coddled, accepted, and ignored white collar crime for too long. It is time the nation woke up and realized that it’s not the armed robbers or drug dealers who cause the most economic harm, it’s the white collar criminals living in the most expensive homes who have the most impressive resumes who harm us the most. They steal our pensions, bankrupt our companies, and destroy thousands of jobs, ruining countless lives.” – Harry Markopolos Read More
Very timely, thanks. And trust Monevator to have warned of this ages ago. I too have a friend who buys these but as day trades (naughty, I know). But when we met up in the pub the other night after work he seemed very pleased with himself and his returns, though he sticks to bank stocks (I know..) Having said that, bank stocks for the next 6-12 months seem quite the trend amongst bankers now, at least in the States..
Bear markets can occur in any asset class. In stocks, a bear market is measured by the Dow, the S&P 500, and the NASDAQ. In bonds, a bear market could occur in U.S. Treasurys, municipals bonds, or corporate bonds. Bear markets also happen currencies, gold, and commodities such as oil. Price drops in consumer goods, such as computers, automobiles, or TVs, are not bear markets. Instead, that's called deflation.
3. The demographics are turning against the probability of sustaining the bull market rise in consumption. As people age and retire we tend to spend less on consumer products and more on health care and insurance. Average spending per household fall precipitously after age 65 and the baby boomer generation is crossing this milestone in record numbers.

In Bear Markets, when wild volatility swings become the norm, Swing-trading allows you to hold on to your gains. That's why we proactively guide you to Swing Trade, by setting and regularly updating buy/sell limits to lock in profits and buy back advantageously. In this way we strive to  progressively reduce average cost and augment your profit. Good-till-cancelled limit orders allow you to set them and forget them, until they either execute, or get cancelled. In less than 30-min/day you view new, or adjusted trading signals flagged in red. 
Falling investor confidence is perhaps more powerful than any economic indicator, and it also often signals a bear market. When investors believe something is going to happen (a bear market, for example), they tend to take action (selling shares in order to avoid losses from expected price decreases), and these actions can ultimately turn expectations into reality. Although it is a difficult measure to quantify, investor sentiment shows through in mathematical measurements such as the put/call ratio, the advance/decline line, IPO activity and the amount of outstanding margin debt.
Unlike the last credit crisis when the dollar rose sharply in a general panic for safety, on the next crisis, the dollar is likely to fall substantially. The reason is that foreign ownership of dollar investments (typically in US Treasuries) appears greatly overextended, and an additional $4 trillion of liquidity is in the wrong (non-US) hands. This is likely to be unloaded during a general credit crisis, driving the dollar lower. Read More
Washington, D.C., radio station WMAL personality Jackson Weaver served as the primary voice representing Smokey until Weaver's death in October 1992.[64] In June 2008, the Forest Service launched a new series of public service announcements voiced by actor Sam Elliott, simultaneously giving Smokey a new visual design intended to appeal to young adults.[65] Patrick Warburton provides the voice of an anonymous park ranger.[66]

Goldman did mention that the nine-year bull run was mostly due to loose monetary policy and a spate of fiscal stimulus measures. However, September is a month when the Fed is widely anticipated to raise rates for the third time this year. That certainly doesn’t bode well for the economy. Lest we forget, an accommodative monetary policy helped the market recently complete the longest-ever bull run (read more: Wall Street's Longest Bull Run Shapes Winners & Losers).
In detailing lessons learned from the 1930s and 1970s—and from the ways people invested when other economies experienced high inflation, collapsed markets, and rising interest rates coupled with declining currencies—The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets shows you how to successfully implement various bull moves so that you can preserve, and even enhance, your wealth within a prosperous or an ailing domestic economy. Strategies include a top-down investment approach; cutting expenses where you can; buying high-yielding equities in resource-rich and rapidly growing foreign markets; and investing in commodities, natural resources, and precious metals. Plus, at the end of each chapter, Schiff provides you with witty and insightful "parting words" that provide core advice for you to use as you work toward growing your wealth in any market environment.

Add another nail into our society. Education isn’t to raise the cultural level of society, it’s ONLY to get a job. SAD. I suppose Taco Bell and MacDonalds should make prep “colleges” for thier future employees. That way they can work their “education” off and not receive wages. My good God, look at how enslaved we are as a people, yet we still vote against our own benefit. Sad. My $20,000 credit card that was used to try and stay in a over-priced home, I walked from, but if it was used to educate me, I would be bound forever. Anyone see a problem here?
Debt, my man, debt. In the rush to FIRE economy how could anything be better than DEBT? Particularly if you get the debtors to re-contract for that debt, and more, every so many months, resetting the terms of their interest payback to the beginning of the curve each time? As Ron said, this was all Monopoly money…that people agreed to pretend was real. The problem with speculation is that once you have more than a few people dancing atop the Milk the Suckers ponzi pyramid, it ceases to be a pyramid shape….

For me, this is the most important part of George’s new economics. The entrepreneur must know that if his product or service succeeds at the market, it won’t be regulated out of existence. And the profits will not be taxed away. If he doesn’t have that assurance, the likelihood of turning his idea into a product or service is greatly diminished. That results in less entrepreneurial creations, which means less knowledge and wealth in the economy.
Regardless of their exact beginnings and ends, bear markets typically have four phases. In the first phase, prices and investor sentiment are high, but investors are beginning to take profits and exit the market. In the second phase, stock prices begin to fall quickly, trading activity and corporate earnings fall, and positive economic indicators are below average. Investor sentiment also gets more pessimistic and some investors panic. Market indices and many securities reach new trading lows, trading activity continues to decrease, and dividend yields reach historic highs. In the third phase, prices and trading volume increase somewhat as speculators enter the market. In the fourth and final phase, stock prices continue to fall, but they do so at a slower pace. As investors find prices low enough and as they react to good news or positive indicators, bear markets often eventually give way to bull markets.

Rate and Review This Podcast on iTuneshttps://www.branddrivendigital.com/how-to-rate-and-review-a-podcast-in-itunes/Futures Rallied after Drop on Apple NewsI want to get to the nonfarm payroll number. This is the big number, and, maybe, because the initial number was good, the market rallied. Although, I think the real reason that the market ra ...…

Hindsight is the most exact of all sciences. Most people who live their life backwards have a miserable life. Having been around for a while, I tend not to look back, especially not at negative events. Much better to embrace uncertainty since everything going forward from here is uncertain. We can’t do anything about the past but we certainly have more control over our future. And looking at the next few years, it does seem that these are going to be extremely turbulent both economically, socially and politically.


Jim, I have so much been looking forward – ever since we launched this podcast two years ago with Jim Rogers, actually, as our first guest – I’ve been looking forward to getting you on the program. And, frankly, I’m glad it took this long because I don’t think there’s ever been a more important time in the last ten years to be very closely observing interest rates.
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