You can recognize a bear market if you know where the economy is in the business cycle. If it's just entering the expansion phase, then a bear market is unlikely. But if it's in an asset bubble or investors are behaving with irrational exuberance, then it's probably time for the contraction phase and a bear market. In 2018, we are in the expansion phase of the current business cycle.

The second important institutional change is the growth in the mutual fund industry since the mid-1980s, which resulted from the changes in the retirement plans as well as from the individual small investor’s demand for an inexpensive means of acquiring a diversified investment in the capital markets. Households’ investment in stock and bond mutual funds (not including those held indirectly through pension funds) grew from about 1% of total financial assets in 1984 to 9% in 2002. To be sure, with the increased prominence of pension funds and stock and bond mutual funds, direct holdings of stocks and bonds as a share of financial assets has declined from about 37% in 1960 to 22% in 2002. Nevertheless, the potential cost advantage and portfolio diversification available through financial intermediaries facilitates household investment in stocks and bonds. Therefore, the availability of pension and mutual funds should tend to work in consort with the underlying economic fundamentals affecting households’ demand for stocks going forward.


Shall I give you the time frames and % of price cuts done by various lenders in this area to dump the REO’s? They are so ver ver predictable …… 4-6 weeks to first cut of 9.87 -11.11%, another 4 -6 weeks and another cut of antoher 7/5 -10%,….another 6 weeks and now they are 23 -30% of the original list……. ANd they always end up taking offers that are 7 -15% off the list price du jour….
That is the purpose of this article. It can be bewildering when a casual observer tries to follow global events, something made more difficult by editorial policies at news outlets, and the commentary from most analysts, who are, frankly, ill-informed. Accordingly, this article addresses the topic that dominates our future. The most important players in the great game of geopolitics are America and China. Read More
This article will focus on the top four precious metals, gold, silver, platinum, and palladium.  Even though Rhodium and other metals are considered precious, the ones listed above take the lion’s share of the investment market.  Furthermore, while platinum and palladium are purchased as investments, they have a much larger industrial component than gold or silver. Read More
I don't believe Clancy actually wrote this book. It isn't like his prior Ryan books. It's over 1000 pages, and if you deleted all the "f" words, it probably would have been 100 pages shorter. Not having references to sex and whores/prostitutes could have cut another 100 pages. He could have been just fine not adding useless filler to demonstrate his knowledge of history. I had a hard time even getting interested in it and almost gave up about 10 chapters into it. It finally did pick up and I stayed the course, despite multiple typo errors and repeated statements in different parts of the book. Evidently, even the editors couldn't get through it all. Very disappointing. I ordered two more of the books in the series at the same time and really hope they are much better (written by Greany). Of the 13 books that I have read of the Ryan/Ryan JR/Clark series of books, this is the first one I've given a negative rating on, as I normally love his books.
As this stock market correction progresses, it is natural to consider what levels may be effectivein halting the decline. We have recently taken a stab at a couple potential “support” levels in the U.S. market with excellent success, so far. Those posts include Monday’s The Mother Of All Support Levels on the broad Value Line Geometric Composite which held precisely, as well as a few Premium Posts at The Lyons Share covering key sectors, which also held on cue: Market Leaders At Must-Hold Levels and Finally Some Support To Bank On (if you’d like to see these posts, shoot us an email at [email protected] and we’d be happy to share). Read More
One of the most commonly asked questions among market participants and non-participants alike is, “What will cause the stock market to stop rising?” Normally, investors would be thrilled at the prospect of a perpetual rise in equity prices. Yet, with so few direct participants nowadays compared to former years, there is a growing desire among many for a major decline which will allow non-participants to buy stocks at a much lower price. As we’ll discuss in this commentary, that scenario will likely remain a pipe dream for an extended period before it ever becomes a reality. Read More
Not only does David explain the idea behind a bear market on this episode of Money For the Rest of Us, he also examines nominal yields and how they can be dissected into the expected path of future short-term interest rates and term premiums. While the drivers behind climbing interest rates cannot always be observed directly, these two main factors shed light on just how high interest rates could climb in the coming years. Also, learn how the Federal Reserve estimates the path of short-term of interest rates and why term premiums are countercyclical and tend to rise when there is a great deal of investor uncertainty.
×