A campaign featuring Smokey and the slogan "Smokey Says – Care Will Prevent 9 out of 10 Forest Fires" began in 1944. His later slogan, "Remember... Only YOU Can Prevent Forest Fires" was created in 1947 and was associated with Smokey Bear for more than five decades. In April 2001, the message was officially updated to "Only You Can Prevent Wildfires." in response to a massive outbreak of wildfires in natural areas other than forests (such as grasslands), and to clarify that Smokey is promoting the prevention of unplanned outdoor fire versus prescribed fires. According to the Ad Council, 80% of outdoor recreationists correctly identified Smokey Bear's image and 8 in 10 recognized the campaign PSAs.
Fortunately, we do not have to make predictions right now. We can hedge by shorting the weakest stocks and we can adjust to changes in the technical evidence as needed. This is what I prefer. At the bottom, we should see bullish divergences of new DJI lows: (1) volume should pick up on rallies instead of declines, (2) closes should be above openings and (3) price downtrend-lines will then be broken. How far down the DJI will be at this point, when our Peerless system start giving Buys, I cannot say. But that’s what I am waiting for. Whatever the news is then, the Peerless Divergence-Buys will probably be a good time to buy. At least, that is what history shows. We are not at that point now. So, we have to be very careful about believing the first bounce up right now.
2019 is shaping up to be the year in which all the policies that worked in the past will no longer work. As we all know, the Global Financial Meltdown / recession of 2008-09 was halted by the coordinated policies of the major central banks, which lowered interest rates to near-zero, bought trillions of dollars of bonds and iffy assets such as mortgage-backed securities, and issued unlimited lines of credit to insolvent banks, i.e. unlimited liquidity.
The primary reason why stock prices have been soaring in recent months is because corporations have been buying back their own stock at an unprecedented pace. In fact, the pace of stock buybacks is nearly double what it was at this time last year. According to Goldman Sachs, S&P 500 companies spent 384 billion dollars buying back stock during the first half of 2018. That is an absolutely astounding number. And in many cases, corporations are going deep into debt in order to do this. Of course this is going to push up stock prices, but corporate America will not be able to inflate this bubble indefinitely. At some point a credit crunch will come, and the pace of stock buybacks will fall precipitously. Read More
In 2008 through 2011, new public service announcements (PSAs) featuring Smokey rendered in CGI were released. In 2010, the PSAs encouraged young adults to “Get Your Smokey On” – that is, to become like Smokey and speak up appropriately when others are acting carelessly. In 2011, the campaign launched its first mobile application, or app, to provide critical information about wildfire prevention, including a step-by-step guide to safely building and extinguishing campfires, as well as a map of current wildfires across America.
One of the strangest things about this strangest-ever expansion has been the way pretty much everything went up. Stocks, bonds, real estate, art, oil – some of which have historically negative correlations with others — all rose more-or-less in lock-step. And within asset classes, the big names behaved the same way, rising regardless of their relative valuation.
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RATE AND REVIEW this podcast wherever you listen.Turkey is the Epicenter of Emerging Market ConcernsRight now, the epicenter of the concerns about the emerging markets is coming from Turkey. What is the problem with the Turkish lira? Turkish President Erdogan is veering off into some very dangerous territory with his stance with the Central Ban ...…
After the financial crisis and bear market of 2008-09, the Employee Benefit Research Institute did a study of how typical Americans fared with their retirement plan accounts at work. The study found that the average 401(k) account balance plunged by more than 25% during 2008, reflecting stock ownership in most plans. But those who kept participating consistently through 401(k) contributions reaped the rewards of the recovery, as the median balance rose at an impressive 16% annual pace over the four years following the bear market low.
ANSWER: The entire world has NEVER been on the gold standard simultaneously. Asia was on a silver standard while the West was on a gold standard. Above is the first coin struck in Hong Kong in 1866 which was the Hong Kong Dollar. The West struck Trade Dollars during the 19th century to pay for goods from Asia and they were silver – never gold. Here is an example of both the British and American trade dollars used in payments particularly with China. The Spanish 8 reals Americans called Pillar Dollars and slicing this up into pieces like a pie gave rise to the term for a Piece of Eight – 2 bits, 4 bits, 8 bits a dollar. Read More
Economic effects of the September 11 attacks (2001) Stock market downturn of 2002 Chinese stock bubble of 2007 United States bear market of 2007–09 Financial crisis of 2007–08 Dubai debt standstill European debt crisis 2010 Flash Crash 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami (Aftermath) August 2011 stock markets fall 2011 Bangladesh share market scam 2015–16 Chinese stock market turbulence 2015–16 stock market crash 2016 United Kingdom EU referendum (Aftermath) 2018 Cryptocurrency crash
Additionally, having a diversified portfolio in stocks, bonds, cash, and alternative investments is important in a bear market. Alternative investments are non correlated with the stock and bond market so over time having this type of asset allocation has proven to out perform the older more traditional stock, bond and cash portfolio asset allocation model.
In this article I point to the pressures on the Fed to moderate monetary policy, but that will only affect the timing of the next cyclical credit crisis. That is going to happen anyway, triggered by the Fed or even a foreign central bank. In the very short term, a tendency to moderate monetary policy might allow the gold price to recover from its recent battering.
Categories: Fictional characters introduced in 1944Public service announcement charactersAmerican mascotsCartoon mascotsFictional bearsFictional gamekeepers and park rangersFictional firefightersFire preventionPublic service announcements of the United StatesUnited States Forest ServiceWildfire ecologyBear mascots1976 animal deathsNational Zoological Park (United States)
The bigger they come, the harder they fall. Currently, we are in the terminal phase of an “everything bubble” which has had ten years to grow. It is the biggest financial bubble that our country has ever seen, and experts are warning that when it finally bursts we will experience an economic downturn that is even worse than the Great Depression of the 1930s. Of course many of us in the alternative media have been warning about what is coming for quite some time, but now even many in the mainstream media have jumped on the bandwagon. Read More
No, it is invariably the bears who are blamed for the post-bubble crises and are the main objects of anti- speculative legislation. Yet during the bubble periods it is the bears who are generally the lone voice of reason, warning people of the folly of investing in overpriced markets. In the aftermath of a bubble, they continue their forensic work of exposing unsound securities and bringing prices back in line with intrinsic values, a point which must be reached before the recovery can start.
"Bring on the Trade War!"Today is Jobs Friday, but before I get to the jobs report, I want to talk a little bit about the escalation of the trade war, In fact, some stories I'm reading are that the trade war began today, or last night. A lot of the tariffs are finally being imposed. The market reacted positively; the Dow was up 100 points today ...…
Not even a full minute into an interview with Alex Jones of Info Wars, Schiff says “it’s not a good thing” that the economy is going to crash and burn. “Unfortunately, that’s what Trump has inherited from Obama. But it’s not even really just Obama, it’s the federal reserve. It’s the monetary policy that has been passed like a baton from Clinton to Bush to Obama and now to Trump. And we’re near the end of the game and unfortunately, Trump’s gonna be the fall guy. This thing is all gonna collapse while he’s president.” Read More
Identifying and measuring bear markets is both art and science. One common measure says that a bear market exists when at least 80% of all stock prices fall over an extended period. Another measure says that a bear market exists if certain market indexes -- such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 -- fall at least -15%. Of course, different market sectors may experience bear markets at different times. The bear market that occurred in the U.S. equity markets from 1929 to 1933 is one of the most famous bear markets in history.
A 20% drop by the DJI will next require it to break below its support at 23180. History,1928–2017, suggests that ordinarily a bigger decline more than 15% is usually delayed until (1) the NYSE A/D Line has shown a much longer period of divergence than we have so far had, and/or (2) the Tiger Accumulation Index has been negative a lot longer than it has now or (3) that a sudden DJI head/shoulders top pattern has appeared which shows a rapid re-evaluation of market conditions by Professionals. None of these three conditions are present now. So, technically a decline below 23180 should not occur at this juncture, if this were a “normal” market. But downside volatility is very high now and the DJI is unable to stay within its normal Peerless trading bands.
The second important institutional change is the growth in the mutual fund industry since the mid-1980s, which resulted from the changes in the retirement plans as well as from the individual small investor’s demand for an inexpensive means of acquiring a diversified investment in the capital markets. Households’ investment in stock and bond mutual funds (not including those held indirectly through pension funds) grew from about 1% of total financial assets in 1984 to 9% in 2002. To be sure, with the increased prominence of pension funds and stock and bond mutual funds, direct holdings of stocks and bonds as a share of financial assets has declined from about 37% in 1960 to 22% in 2002. Nevertheless, the potential cost advantage and portfolio diversification available through financial intermediaries facilitates household investment in stocks and bonds. Therefore, the availability of pension and mutual funds should tend to work in consort with the underlying economic fundamentals affecting households’ demand for stocks going forward.
Confidence and complacency are more acute now than any time I’ve seen before. All expressions of overvaluation are at historical extremes. Despite this, most money managers remain in the market. The thesis is “if it’s going up, regardless of anything else, I want to be in it.” Perhaps the best indicator of complacency is the VIX which at its current level of 13 tells us that investors see no reason to protect their positions. Every minor decline is seen as a buying opportunity. The rationale is that the Fed would not allow anything worse than a 10% decline. If the stock market starts sinking between now and October 1st, I will be most interested to see if the Fed eliminates QE.
On this episode of Money For the Rest of Us, David Stein walks you through the complex idea of a bond bear market. He explains that a market consisting of losses of 20% or more are considered a bear market type loss and that this type of loss is possible even in the bond market. David states that “It’s important to understand what drives interest rates, how high they could get, and what the ramifications of that are.” Be sure to listen to this full episode to fully understand this idea and to hear some of David’s suggestions for investing in a rising interest rate environment.