5. Historically, housing has generally kept up with inflation (whereas stocks have generally performed negatively in real terms—which takes into account inflation). For example, look at the negative real returns on stocks during the 70’s; compare that to real value of housing that stayed flat during the 70’s (housing prices moved up in line with inflation).
In the days ahead, markets are awaiting potential announcements on the Trump administration's plan to curb Chinese investments in U.S. technology, although messaging on those measures from the White House has proven conflicting. The U.S. is also set to impose an additional 25 percent tariff on $34 billion in Chinese imports on July 6, with duties on a further $16 billion in Chinese goods in the works.
I think you need to look at how the population is growing. Only 1 group is growing and if you look at the high school and college graduation rates of that group it spells real trouble for our future prosperity as a society. Hopefully at some point they assimilated into our culture, but if they continue with the culture they came from that doesn’t emphasize education then it will only increase our welfare state. These people aren’t going to buy a lot of homes if they can’t graduate from High School and in the end it will mean spend more money on prisons and there will be even less for housing. I’m also curious if they fiasco of the last 20 years has anything to do with why Japan’s birth rate has gotten so low. If you really feel that each generation is going to have to lower their standard of living and your kids would be worse off than you and your parents wouldn’t that impact your decision to have kids at all?
As the bull market of the 1990s has turned into the bear market of the (early) 2000s, households have sharply reversed their more than decade-long trend of increasing their share of assets held in stocks. On balance, households have reallocated their assets away from stocks and toward tangible real assets, such as housing and other durable goods, as well as toward safe liquid financial assets, including cash, bank deposits, and money market mutual funds.
In the days ahead, markets are awaiting potential announcements on the Trump administration's plan to curb Chinese investments in U.S. technology, although messaging on those measures from the White House has proven conflicting. The U.S. is also set to impose an additional 25 percent tariff on $34 billion in Chinese imports on July 6, with duties on a further $16 billion in Chinese goods in the works.
While that’s not the highest level of P/E ratio ever compared to the late 1990s, the median price-to- sales ratio is at the highest level ever at 2.5 times. That’s about three standard deviations above the norm. You don’t have to be a math whiz to know that three standard deviations are way outside of normal bounds. Bad things happen when the rubber band is stretched that far.
Three of the four worst bear markets were preceded by high valuation. Among the four worst bear markets with over 40% losses, three of them including the Great Depression in 1929, dot-com bubble in 2000 and subprime crisis in 2007 started with somewhat extreme market valuation. The only exception is the 1973 bear market caused by Arab oil embargo and subsequent recession, but it had an above-average PE to start with as well.
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Two thirds of Americans get at least some of their news on social media. Google and Facebook receive well over 70% of US digital advertising revenues. The average daily time spent on social media is 2 hours. Just a few factoids that have at least one thing in common: nothing like them was around 10 years ago, let alone 20. And they depict a change, or set of changes, in our world that will take a long time yet to understand and absorb. Some things just move too fast for us to keep track of, let alone process. Read More

Listen to him say….”THESE ARE THE FACTS.” This video is very entertaining and very informative. It shows you how much of a shyster these real estate agents can be. He says “there’s a whole bunch of us (realtors) out there who know real estate – it’s what we do for a living. We’re licensed and WE HAVE TO TELL YOU THE TRUTH, BY LAW. Boy, what a shyster.
In 2007, John Del Vecchio managed a short only portfolio for Ranger Alternatives, L.P. which was later converted into the AdvisorShares Ranger Equity Bear ETF in 2011. Mr. Del Vecchio also launched an earnings quality index used for the Forensic Accounting ETF. He is the co-author of What's Behind the Numbers? A Guide to Exposing Financial Chicanery and Avoiding Huge Losses in Your Portfolio. Previously, he worked for renowned forensic accountant Dr. Howard Schilit, as well as short seller David Tice.
Of course, in that event, the FED will probably stand ready to provide liquidity to market makers and banks, but now, after the shame of the 2007–2008 bailouts, they would face much more political heat if they do try to prop up the market now. So, they will likely hesitate and that means there first must be a panic… Unless Powell surprises me and preempts this and says next week that the FED will stand by to stabilize the markets.
This is untrue, because cycles of business activity have their origin in the expansion and contraction of credit, whose origin in turn is in central banks’ monetary policy and fractional reserve banking. Cycles of credit are then manifest in variations of business activity. Cycles are the cause, booms and slumps the consequence. It follows that if we understand the characteristics of the different phases, we can estimate where we are in the credit cycle. Read More
Today, the S&P 500 fell by more than 3%, the Dow lost more than 2%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 4.4%, its biggest one-day drop since 2011 (paywall). Benchmark US stock indexes are on track for their worst month in years, in some cases all the way back to the 2008 financial crisis. The Nasdaq and small-cap Russell 2000 are both now in “correction” territory—that is, down more than 10% from recent highs.
We’re a wee while on now from this article, and I would say that things have moved on a little now. It is now possible to buy an “Infinite Turbo” from SG which gives you the straightforward return of a short or long position on say, the FTSE 100, with the leverage of your choice. Each ETF has its own “knockout” where you lose all your capital if your trade goes significantly against you, but you can’t lose more than your capital stake. Could be a useful tool for those with strong hearts wanting to eliminate the random number generating mechanism of daily products.

It was a "binary" stock market for 5 years, and as the monster rally went on, it became even more so as more and more equity sub-sectors and asset classes faded away, with "the market" powered by fewer and fewer large-cap growth stocks. Investors either won big investing in large-cap Tech and growth, or you went nowhere with value funds, emerging markets, and small and mid-cap investing styles.


The Accountable Capitalism ActElizabeth Warren unveiled her new idea in an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal. It is her new bill, called the Accountable Capitalism Act. Of course, I have said this before, there is no truth in advertising when it comes to legislation. Whenever Congress passes a bill, the name of the bill is generally the opposite ...…
Financial crisis of 2007–08 16 Sep 2008 On September 16, 2008, failures of large financial institutions in the United States, due primarily to exposure of securities of packaged subprime loans and credit default swaps issued to insure these loans and their issuers, rapidly devolved into a global crisis resulting in a number of bank failures in Europe and sharp reductions in the value of equities (stock) and commodities worldwide. The failure of banks in Iceland resulted in a devaluation of the Icelandic króna and threatened the government with bankruptcy. Iceland was able to secure an emergency loan from the IMF in November. Later on, U.S. President George W. Bush signs the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act into law, creating a Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) to purchase failing bank assets. Had disastrous effects on the world economy along with world trade. [18] [19]
The DJIA actually did a lot better than a lot of the other averages.  The Dow Jones transports were down just over 4%; 445 points.  the NASDAQ was down over 4% as well - 315 points. Weakness across the board in the stock market today.  And it's not just the homebuilders and the autos. I've been talking about those sectors as leading indicators and, yes, many of those stocks made new 52-week lows today as well. But they were not the worst performers on the day.
The world has been plagued with periodic bouts of the economic rollercoaster of booms and busts, inflations and recessions, especially during the last one hundred years. The main culprits responsible for these destabilizing and disruptive episodes have been governments and their central banks. They have monopolized the control of their respective nation’s monetary and banking systems, and mismanaged them. There is really nowhere else to point other than in their direction.
When the financial media continuously repeat an opinion as fact, it spawns a mainstream narrative, which produces a powerful effect on investor psychology. One mainstream narrative, repeated with certainty, is low interest rates cause high stock market valuations, which is supported by the public statements of investment luminaries such as Warren Buffett.
The chart formation built in the course of the early February sell-off and subsequent rebound continues to look ominous, so we are closely watching the proceedings. There are now numerous new divergences in place that clearly represent a major warning signal for the stock market. For example, here is a chart comparing the SPX to the NDX (Nasdaq 100 Index) and the broad-based NYA (NYSE Composite Index). Read More
A special counsel needs to be appointed but because Sessions recused himself, Rosenstein would have to do it. However, Rosenstein is a witness and actor in this scandal, and certainly wouldn’t want to appoint a special prosecutor who could find criminality on his part. He has a clear conflict of interest and should be recused. Why the GOP doesn’t point this out is beyond me.
At the time of publication, Michael Brush had no positions in any stocks mentioned in this column. Brush has suggested AMZN and GOOGL in his stock newsletter Brush Up on Stocks. Brush is a Manhattan-based financial writer who has covered business for the New York Times and The Economist Group, and he attended Columbia Business School in the Knight-Bagehot program.
Embrace uncertainty – Anyone who doesn’t follow this momentous maxim in coming years is likely to get one unpleasant shock after the next. Because the stable progression of the world economy since WWII is now coming to an end. What should have been a normal cyclical high in the next year or two, is now going to be the most massive implosion of a bubble full of debts and inflated assets. The system has been “successfully” manipulated for decades by central banks, certain commercial banks, the BIS in Basel and the IMF for the benefit of a small elite. Read More

Silver prices peaked in 2011. The descent has been long and tedious. Perhaps silver prices made an important low on September 11, 2018, like they did on November 21, 2001 at $4.01. That long-term low was twenty cents below the price on September 11, 2001, the day the twin towers fell at free-fall acceleration, which marked the beginning of the silver bull market that launched prices upward by factor of 12.
In his book Nobody Knows Anything, my friend Bob Moriarty wrote about the difference between signal and noise. Unfortunately, much of the information in the gold space or what passes for such is really noise. Conspiracy theories around manipulation, price suppression and China are all too popular while important factors like real interest rates, investment demand and gold’s relationship to equities are neglected. At present the Gold market has experienced a critical breakdown yet in some circles a new theory and explanation is gaining traction.

“Exhilarating...You’d have to be numb not to be impressed by the scale of [Clancy’s] ambition, his feel for the way information now flashes instantaneously across the globe, his mastery of technological developments. No other novelists is giving so full a picture of modern conflict, equally adeptly depicting those at the top and bottom of military and intelligence systems.”—The London Sunday Times

The $3 trillion that Vanguard has invested in index funds might indicate stability as, according to Vanguard, the best way to invest is to invest in index funds. But such a statement isn’t true at all. The positive performance Vanguard’s index funds have achieved in the last 35 years, which is now the main factor in attracting new funds, is just a result of many factors that has lead the S&P 500 to grow 23 times since 1980.


A little more than thirty years ago Tom Clancy was a Maryland insurance broker with a passion for naval history. Years before, he had been an English major at Baltimore’s Loyola College and had always dreamed of writing a novel. His first effort, The Hunt for Red October—the first of the phenomenally successful Jack Ryan novels—sold briskly as a result of rave reviews, then catapulted onto the New York Times bestseller list after President Reagan pronounced it “the perfect yarn.” From that day forward, Clancy established himself as an undisputed master at blending exceptional realism and authenticity, intricate plotting, and razor-sharp suspense. He passed away in October 2013.
Of course, no investment advisor in the world can tell you with 100% certainty what lies ahead. But with InvesTech’s time-proven “safety-first” strategy and objective proprietary indicators, you’ll have the tools you need to protect your hard-earned assets in bear markets and maximize profits in bull markets. Don’t miss a single critical issue of InvesTech Research…
By now, hopefully, Americans have put two and two together and figured out that it isn’t the Chinese government that will pay for Trump’s tariffs, but the Chinese consumer. Much like the American government will not pay for China’s tariffs, it will be the American consumer. Those costs are passed on directly to the public in the form of higher cost of goods. Read More
Our family would like to thank you for Heath’s recent financial aid award letter. However, we are very concerned with the results. Our expected family contribution dropped from $20,365 in 2016-17 to $6,987 for the 2017-18 school year, yet the award package left us with an additional need of over $8,500. The reduction in this year’s EFC is due to a reduction in assets, plus the fact that we will be sending two students to college during the 2017-2018 year. In spite of these changes, however, the amount of the current award is essentially the same as the award for 2016-17.
Our analysis continues today with this research of a potential Short Squeeze in the SPX and other broader markets.  As you are probably well aware, we have been nailing the markets with our detailed analysis for quite a while.  Our Advanced Analytical tools have called nearly every move.  Nearly two weeks ago we called a massive market bottom to form in the US markets – well before just about anyone else even saw a bottom formation. In fact, we have already banked 10% profit on the first half of our best-cherry-picked setup for subscribers and it’s continuing to rally more.
First, more NYSE stocks are bought on margin now than at any time since the 1950s, and Faber interprets this as a sign of overvaluation. Indeed, he finds that stock prices are "out of control," per Money, with the market P/E ratio nearly double its historical average. Once a selloff begins, Faber expects it to become an avalanche in which "asset holders will lose 50% of their assets [and] some people will lose everything," as Money quotes him.

This situation is the result of decades of stagnant wage growth. Since 1979, real (inflation-adjusted) hourly wages for the bottom quintile of earners fell by 1%. Worse, the inflation adjustment is based on the CPI, which as I’ve said many times, understates the real cost of living for most people. But wages haven’t stagnated for everybody. As the below chart shows, real hourly wages for the top quintile of earners have increased by over 27% in the same period.
A little more than thirty years ago Tom Clancy was a Maryland insurance broker with a passion for naval history. Years before, he had been an English major at Baltimore’s Loyola College and had always dreamed of writing a novel. His first effort, The Hunt for Red October—the first of the phenomenally successful Jack Ryan novels—sold briskly as a result of rave reviews, then catapulted onto the New York Times bestseller list after President Reagan pronounced it “the perfect yarn.” From that day forward, Clancy established himself as an undisputed master at blending exceptional realism and authenticity, intricate plotting, and razor-sharp suspense. He passed away in October 2013.
The gold-silver ratio has been one of the most reliable technical ‘buy’ indictors for silver, whenever the ratio climbs above 80. The gold-to-silver ratio has now spiked above 85, which is the highest level of this entire 18-year bull market! In fact, you have to go back 27 years to 1991 for the ratio to be higher than it is today. The gold-to-silver ratio is a powerful trading signal that can help to identify buying or selling opportunities in the precious metals sector. The ratio represents the number of silver ounces it takes to buy a single ounce of gold. It might sound simple, but this ratio is more powerful than it may seem at first blush. Amazingly, the ratio is currently higher than it was at the depths of the 2008-09 financial crisis. Read More

Michael J. Panzner, author and 25-year Wall-Street veteran, says that "the real reasons behind the sell-off ... include the bursting of history's biggest housing bubble, which triggered a shockwave of wealth destruction that has wreaked widespread havoc throughout the economy, as well as the unraveling of a multi-trillion-dollar financial house of cards built on greed, ignorance, and fraud."[15]

This study tends to support the general notion that now is the time for investors to be asking questions about the viability of the long term trend.  It also supports the analysis that the bull market started in the 2011 time frame. It shows us consistently that it is the trend from 2011 that traders need to keep a watchful eye upon as well as the 50 week EMA.  From a trading point of view, it's quite helpful to have some clear criteria for recognizing the end of a trend.  In that light, while there is likely to be a rally in the primary indices, when that comes it is likely that some key sectors will not participate or will participate marginally.  The same underperforming sectors are likely to break down first, giving advanced warning that the general market will be soon to follow.
I think you need to look at how the population is growing. Only 1 group is growing and if you look at the high school and college graduation rates of that group it spells real trouble for our future prosperity as a society. Hopefully at some point they assimilated into our culture, but if they continue with the culture they came from that doesn’t emphasize education then it will only increase our welfare state. These people aren’t going to buy a lot of homes if they can’t graduate from High School and in the end it will mean spend more money on prisons and there will be even less for housing. I’m also curious if they fiasco of the last 20 years has anything to do with why Japan’s birth rate has gotten so low. If you really feel that each generation is going to have to lower their standard of living and your kids would be worse off than you and your parents wouldn’t that impact your decision to have kids at all?
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They’ll spend tens of thousands on a down payment. Go in debt to the order of hundreds of thousands. Or stay in their sinking real estate while shelling out thousands every month that they could be saving. But they’ll never give my question any serious brainpower and at least think through the consequences before committing themselves to eternal debt peonage.
In the beginning of 2017, you could buy 1 Bitcoin for around $700-$900. Throughout the summer, Bitcoins price started to soar and seemed to reach new highs on almost a daily basis. In the fall of 2017, Bitcoin continued its impressive run, doubling in price in a 30 day period while breaking through the much anticipated $10,000 USD mark. On December 7th, Bitcoin went parabolic and breached $19,000 USD before settling in the $15,000 – $17,000 range. Even long-term Bitcoin enthusiasts were shocked at this price movement. With these spectacular new highs, more people are discovering Bitcoin and it’s becoming increasingly difficult for media pundits to write Bitcoin off as some cypherpunk fad or anomaly. Make no mistake, for better or for worse, Bitcoin has arrived in a big way and it has officially put the financial world on notice.  Read More
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast wherever you listen.https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/the-peter-schiff-show-podcast/id404963432?mt=2&ls=1Turkey's Current Account DeficitThe "Turkey baste" continued on Monday, although Tuesday we did have a bit of a reversal, Tuesday bounce in the lira, rising about 7 percent or so, in today's trading. But still, ...…

POST YOUR REVIEW OF THIS PODCAST ON iTunesVoting Responsibly for FreedomI am "pro" young people because I want them to grow up in a free country. I want them to have every opportunity to be as prosperous as possible. Democracy is actually an enemy of freedom. Young people have a better chance to achieve their goals if the 18-19-20 year old gene ...…
The entire defense sector reports this week. At least the big guys do. Margin compression and the potential for lost contracts weigh heavy on these stocks right now. This is one area where I will be slow to withdraw amid weakness. Domestic and allied monies intended for this space will not draw down in a Cold War environment. Lockheed Martin (LMT) reports this morning. The numbers should be good. However, the firm has a number of deals in place with Saudi Arabia. My plan is to wait for the call before doing anything stupid. Boeing (BA) , General Dynamics (GD) , and Northrop Grumman (NOC) all report tomorrow morning, while Raytheon (RTN) will go to the tape on Thursday morning.
Feb. 5, 2018 10:57 AM ET| Includes: BXUB, BXUC, CRF, DDM, DIA, DOG, DXD, EEH, EPS, EQL, FEX, FWDD, HUSV, IVV, IWL, IWM, JHML, JKD, OTPIX, PPLC, PPSC, PSQ, QID-OLD, QLD, QQEW, QQQ, QQQE, QQXT, RSP, RWL-OLD, RWM, RYARX, RYRSX, SBUS, SCAP, SCHX, SDOW, SDS, SFLA, SH, SMLL, SPDN, SPLX, SPUU, SPXE, SPXL, SPXN, SPXS, SPXT, SPXU-OLD, SPXV, SPY, SQQQ, SRTY, SSO, SYE, TALL, TNA, TQQQ, TWM, TZA, UDOW, UDPIX, UPRO, URTY, USA, USSD, USWD, UWM, VFINX, VOO, VTWO, VV, ZLRG
Before we dive in, I want to make clear that the goal of this letter is not to say whether liberal internationalism is good or bad, or defend the backlash against it. My objective is to highlight the current state of the order and give insight into Niall’s argument behind why he believes it is over. As investors, it is imperative we understand this trend because it has major implications for financial markets we need to think about. With that being said, let’s dive straight in.
Swiss-born Marc Faber, now a resident in Thailand, holds a PhD in economics and is an investment advisor and fund manager through his firm, Marc Faber Ltd. He also writes a monthly investment newsletter, "The Gloom, Boom and Doom Report." As Money notes, Faber is consistently bearish, and frequently is called "Dr. Doom." He sees two big red flags right now.
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The term dead cat bounce is market lingo for a "recovery" after markets decline due to fundamental reversals. Markets tend to bounce back after sharp declines as participants (human and digital) who have been trained to "buy the dips" once again buy the decline, and the financial media rushes to reassure everyone that nothing has actually changed, everything is still peachy-keen wonderfulness.
Whether the market is in bear territory or not matters because declines tend to feed on themselves. It also suggests that investors have lost faith that the economy can keep producing the big gains it has turned in lately. If anyone still believes that President Donald Trump’s tax cuts will lead to a prolonged boost to corporate profits, it is hard to see evidence of that in the market. On top of that, when the psychology of investors is glum, bad news tends to send stocks downstream much faster than at times when stocks are trading at bull-market premiums.
The living symbol of Smokey Bear was a five-pound, three month old American black bear cub who was found in the spring of 1950 after the Capitan Gap fire, a wildfire that burned in the Capitan Mountains of New Mexico.[27][28][11] Smokey had climbed a tree to escape the blaze, but his paws and hind legs had been burned. Local crews who had come from New Mexico and Texas to fight the blaze removed the cub from the tree.[11]
It should be clear to you now, the “unwind” has begun. Jim and I tried to tell you this a couple of months back, now there is absolute evidence. Look at real estate in many parts of the world. Australia, China, London, Vancouver, New York and now even San Francisco. The most important thing to look at is “volume”, as price always follows. Read More
Intraday Data provided by SIX Financial Information and subject to terms of use. Historical and current end-of-day data provided by SIX Financial Information. All quotes are in local exchange time. Real-time last sale data for U.S. stock quotes reflect trades reported through Nasdaq only. Intraday data delayed at least 15 minutes or per exchange requirements.
Maybe you suspect a bear market will start because the bull market has run on too long. Question One—is there a “right” time a bull market needs to last? No! There is no “right” length for a bull market. As bull markets run longer than average in duration, there is normally a steady stream of folks who say a bull market must end because it’s too old. (Read more on this phenomenon in Markets Never Forget.) That isn’t right. They all end for their own reasons and will end eventually—but age isn’t among them. People started saying the 1990s bull market was too old in 1994, only about six years too soon. “Irrational exuberance” was first uttered in 1996—again, way too early. Bull markets can die at any age.
       We hope to buy a 2,000 sq., Ft., or larger single story, move in ready, single family residence with Good Bones and plenty of yard ( acres ) with privacy, (no Tracts or busy streets) and must be quiet area. We want to live modestly and without the cost and hassles of Mella Roos, HOAs or the many City ordinances. A ranch or farm land preferred. We hope to move once and to stay for at least 10 to 15 years before we retire, then move out of the area for good.

Led by the S&P, the next move in global equities is a black-hole plunge. Rather than protect long portfolios with Puts, why not liquidate them entirely? The Fed's stimulatory hand is played-out, & the impending Crash will strike with such force that the Silver Bullet from the past will no longer suffice to resuscitate the market. Since the market forecasts the economy more accurately than any economist, this time it's we, who must bite the Silver Bullet. Genuine Bull Markets reflect economic expansion by sub-dividing into 5-waves; Bear Market Rallies, like the Roaring Twenties, and Bernanke's megalomaniac Put are illusory, 3-wave upsides within larger Bear Markets. Only a 5-wave Crash is final. Artificial stimulus is an illicit drug, for which the Fed is the Global Pusher . Rather than more ?hair of the dog?, addicted economies can only heal via cold turkey abstinence. In return for numbing the pain of economic contraction, we have prevented healing the addiction, to dramatically aggravating the economy's ability to heal. By distorting economic incentives to divert capital away from the most worthy ventures, stimulus has exacerbated excess to perpetuate illusory Bubbles. The price of stimulus is a far more austere & enduring Depression, required to wring-out the excess via a rapid, downward GDP spiral to back-out stimulus in its entirety. Once the dollar collapse gains momentum to become universally recognized, the massive exodus out of the Dollar-denominated assets will force interest rates to skyrocket, to balloon the national debt out of control. As documented by Rogoff and Reinhart documented, This Time is NEVER different - eight centuries of financial Folly -a US default of
For some this may seem outrageous even to consider.  The way I see it is that Japan was quickly catching up U.S. GDP in 1995 and many thought that it would at some point surpass our GDP.  This was solidly the number two global economy for many years until China took that place last year.  Yet the real estate bust has really been a drag on the economy for years moving forward:
         I feel that the market is at it’s worst as far as the quailty of available homes at “Fair” prices – we realize that we will lose money, that’s a fact! Also, the sale will unfortunatly bolster the false values of the market. As the Doc’s readers know far too well, the stars have aligned and the wave is comming soon, prices will move further downward to a point of equalibrium with incomes, inventory, supply and demand. It looks like the banks will fight the whole way down delaying a natural correction. Folks have far too much debt into thier properties to make Short sales, preforclosers, forclosures sales work and finding folks who’ve lived many years in the same home with a good amount of equity to negociate with are very rare and thier homes are seldom Gems. 
A very long and unnecessarily drawn out novel which included too much detail about war planning and the various weapons used. U.S. casualties were unrealistically low. Author did not recognize the U.S. National Missile Defense system. Not believable that the Russians would allow the Chinese to retreat from their soil without retribution. I read the book to the end to find out what would happen; it held my attention. This book is not up to Clancy's past books for credibility.

JOIN PETER at the New Orleans Investment Conferencehttps://neworleansconference.com/conference-schedule/831 Point Rout in the Dow Jones Industrial AverageIf you listened to Friday's podcast, I mentioned that I thought I would probably be doing a lot of podcasts this week. I did one yesterday, and I am doing another one today because my feeling ...…
I’ve been to Japan several times, and I can personally attest to the fact that the people there have been demoralized by the last two decades. The sense of forward movement that was common in Japan two decades ago has been replaced by a sense of lowered expectations and insecurity. In the US, I remember this demoralization in the early 1990’s, with that weak economy and high crime levels. But then the late 1990’s boom time came and all that was forgotten, and even the early 2000’s recession and 9/11 couldn’t shake the optimism. But now, the sense that things are going downhill seems to be back in the US, especially among the middle class (the moneyed class is doing fine).
The Democratic Party has steered itself into an exquisitely neurotic predicament at a peculiar moment of history. Senator Bernie Sanders set the tone for the shift to full-throated socialism, and the primary election win of 28-year-old Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in a New York congressional district seems to have ratified it. She promised voters free college tuition, single-payer health care, and free housing. Ah, to live in such a utopia!
As the blame game over the alleged chemical attack in Syria escalates ahead of what is expected to be an imminent, if contained, air strike campaign by the US, UK and/or France against Syria, on Friday morning, Russia’s foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said Moscow had “irrefutable evidence” that the attack – which allegedly killed more than 40 people in an April 7 chemical weapons strike on the former rebel outpost of Douma  -was staged with the help of a foreign secret service.

Bear markets are inevitable, and you have to be willing to endure them in exchange for the opportunity to get life-changing wealth from your investments during the stock market's upward moves. Fortunately, there are ways to prepare for bear markets that can make it easier to get through them when they hit. You can even boost your overall returns if you're willing to use some smart investment strategies that others may be too fearful to use.
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/Look Carefully at the Price IndexThe GDP number came out yesterday; 3/5% did slightly beat the consensus of 3.3%, but remember, for a while the Atlanta Fed was looking for a print in the 4's. But the New York Fed was at 2.2%, so the print was much higher than ...…
RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/Bearish SignalSo much for yesterday's dead cat bounce. All of the U.S. stock market averages came plunging down today, in fact they all closed below yesterday's lows. So even though we had those big rallies off the lows, today, we lost the entire gain and clos ...…
The Kindle version has a lot of errors. I have the hardback of this book and it is a lot cleaner then the Kindle Version. First it's listed as a John Clark Book. It's not. Look at the Hardback. Second, there are more spelling errors/ formatting errors then seems possible. I think Clancy is turning over in his grave over this. For instance several chapters, sentences and words start out with an extra letter or the the wrong letter as this real example here. "Fit was a wark night . . ." Instead of "It was a dark night." It doesnt detract from the amazing story, it just makes it a little annoying as you read along, especially as you reach the end and realize just how many errors there are. I have a first edition hardback that doesn't have that many errors. Not sure what happened. But you should enjoy it as long as you don't mind the errors. Enjoy!
Sorry this is all over the place, but there are multiple converging streams here. And as DHB constantly reminds us, there is absolutely no reason to believe that in an economy built on gambling, scamming, and computer automated profit skimming, ANYTHING is going to accrue bubble-type benefits to just you and me, anytime soon. Least of all your house.
Anya Parampil reports on the US stock market downturn which began on Wednesday, finding that the mini-crash has rippled throughout international markets. Anya talks to Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital, and Bart Chilton, Host of RT’s Boom Bust, to discuss what’s behind the meltdown and whether or not it could evolve into something to more severe.
Our modeling systems are suggesting that Gold and Silver will begin a new upside rally very quickly.  We wrote about how our modeling systems are suggesting this upside move could be a tremendous opportunity for investors over 2 weeks ago.  Our initial target is near the $1245 level and our second target is near the $1309 level.  Recent lows help to confirm this upside projection as the most recent low prices created a price rotation that supports further upside price action.  What is needed right now is a push above $1220 before we begin to see the real acceleration higher.
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Shall I give you the time frames and % of price cuts done by various lenders in this area to dump the REO’s? They are so ver ver predictable …… 4-6 weeks to first cut of 9.87 -11.11%, another 4 -6 weeks and another cut of antoher 7/5 -10%,….another 6 weeks and now they are 23 -30% of the original list……. ANd they always end up taking offers that are 7 -15% off the list price du jour….
For some this may seem outrageous even to consider.  The way I see it is that Japan was quickly catching up U.S. GDP in 1995 and many thought that it would at some point surpass our GDP.  This was solidly the number two global economy for many years until China took that place last year.  Yet the real estate bust has really been a drag on the economy for years moving forward:
There is a quiet revolution taking place in the monetary vacuum that’s developing on the back of the erosion of the dollar’s hegemony. It is perhaps too early to call what’s happening to the dollar the beginning of its demise as the world’s reserve currency, but there is certainly a move away from it in Asia. And every time the Americans deploy their control over global trade settlement as a weapon against the regimes they dislike, nations who are neutral observers take note and consider how to protect themselves, “just in case.”Read More
You never know, at any point in time, if you are in a bear market. A bear market—commonly defined as a period in which a given stock index has dropped at least 20% from a peak—can only be identified after the fact. Until the market has dropped 20% from a peak, you are not yet in a bear market. Once it’s dropped 20%, you can say that you were in a bear market, but you still have no idea where the market’s going next of if you are in what will later be viewed as a bear market. Every uptick is potentially the end of a bear market and the beginning of a new bull market.
Yet, Karen is only one of the brilliant minds that you’ll get exposed to and have the chance to meet at the SIC. It’s going to be an intellectually thrilling event, and I hope you can be there with me to experience it firsthand. To learn more about attending the SIC 2018, and about the other speakers who will be there, I encourage you to click here.

I am sure you remember the lead up to Q1 2016. The US economy and stock market were transitioning from a Goldilocks environment and narrowly avoiding a bear market while the rest of the world was still battling deflation. Precious metals and commodities were in the dumper and try though US and global central banks might, they seemed to fail to woo the inflation genie out of its bottle at every turn.
Once upon a time, there was a little-known energy company called Enron. In its 16-year life, it went from being dubbed America’s most innovative company by Fortune Magazine to being the poster child of American corporate deceit. Using a classic recipe for book-cooking, Enron ended up in bankruptcy with jail time for those involved. Its shareholders lost $74 billionin the four years leading up to its bankruptcy in 2001.
The nominal returns, before accounting for inflation, were actually pretty decent for bonds during these real bears. Over their 45 and 50-year real bear markets, 5-year treasuries and long-term bonds returned 4.6% and 4.7% respectively on an annual basis. Bond investors would kill for those types of returns at the moment if it didn’t come with that pesky inflation.
If you were standing in the smoldering ashes of 9/11 trying to peer into the future, you might have been overjoyed to discover this happy snapshot of 2018: There has been no subsequent major terrorist attack on America from Al Qaeda or its heirs. American troops are not committed en masse to any ground war. American workers are enjoying a blissful 4 percent unemployment rate. The investment class and humble 401(k) holders alike are beneficiaries of a rising GDP and booming stock market that, as measured by the Dow, is up some 250 percent since its September 10, 2001, close. The most admired person in America, according to Gallup, is the nation’s first African-American president. Read More
John Hussman wrote a must-read essay titled:  “Three Delusions:  Paper Wealth, A Booming Economy and Bitcoin (link).”   The crypto/blockchain delusion has exceeded the absurdity of the dot.com and housing bubble eras.   I was shorting fraud stocks happily in both eras.  I’m short a company  now called Riot Blockchain.  If you look at its description in Yahoo Finance, it bills itself as a developer of technologies applied to animal (“non-human”) medicine.  It recently changed its name to Riot Blockchain from Bioptix Inc.  Prior to calling itself Bioptic Inc, it called itself Venaxis. Read More
Two weeks after we reported that GE had found itself locked out of the commercial paper market following downgrades that made it ineligible for most money market investors, the pain has continued, and yesterday General Electric lost just over $5bn in market capitalization. While far less than the $49bn wiped out from AAPL the same day, it was arguably the bigger headline grabber.
Extreme optimism just before the sell-off. We may not be there yet — but earlier this week, many of the largest companies were scoring 52-week highs, like Microsoft and Facebook. And according to this WSJ story, hordes of new individual investors have been diving into the stock market this year, finally shaking off their fear from 2008. It may not be “irrational exuberance” yet — but it’s trending in that direction
A special counsel needs to be appointed but because Sessions recused himself, Rosenstein would have to do it. However, Rosenstein is a witness and actor in this scandal, and certainly wouldn’t want to appoint a special prosecutor who could find criminality on his part. He has a clear conflict of interest and should be recused. Why the GOP doesn’t point this out is beyond me.
Written by seasoned Wall Street prognosticator Peter Schiff–author of the bestselling book Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse–The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets reveals how you should protect your assets and invest your money when the American economy is experiencing perilous economic downturns and wealth building is happening elsewhere. Filled with insightful commentary, inventive metaphors, and prescriptive advice, this book shows you how to make money under adverse market conditions by using a conservative, nontraditional investment strategy.
RATE AND REVIEW this podcasthttps://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/What About Employers' Day?Labor Day is coming up on Monday it it annoys me that we just have a Labor Day and we don't have an Entrepreneur Day. We don't have a day to celebrate the employer. Why is that? The entrepreneurs are the unsung heroes of the American economy. I'm ...…
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT - Free Report) manufactures and sells construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines, and diesel-electric locomotives for construction, resource, and energy and transportation industries. The company has a Zacks Rank #2. In the last 60 days, 11 earnings estimates moved north, while none moved south for the current year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings rose 8.4% in the same period. The company’s expected earnings growth rate for the current quarter and year is 44.6% and 69.3%, respectively.
Every college publication on the market states your university meets about 95% of its student’s need, and we have seen award letters sent to high school seniors in our area substantiating this number. We would like to request that Anywhere University reward Heath, a current student with a 3.4 GPA, an award package equal to, or better than, an incoming freshman. It will be financially difficult for us to continue to send Heath to Anywhere University without an increase in financial aid.
The Goldman Sachs Group operates as an investment banking, securities, and investment management company worldwide. The company has a Zacks Rank #2. In the last 60 days, seven earnings estimates moved north, while none moved south for the current year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings increased 7.6% in the same period. The company’s expected earnings growth rate for the current quarter and year is 15.5% and 26.5%, respectively.
Since communications can be business ideas, information theory is applicable to anything transmitted over time and space—including entrepreneurial creations. In the economy, the entrepreneur has to distinguish amidst the noise, a signal that a particular good or service is needed. But if some force—a government or central bank—distorts the signal by adding “noise to the line,” the entrepreneur could have difficulty interpreting the signal.
And while bear markets typically don't last long (most bear markets in the past have only lasted around 10-15 months), they can mean big losses. Bear markets are not the same as market corrections -- when the market drops 10% from a previous high -- but they can be started by a market crash (which happens when prices drop 10% in one or two days).  
That is the purpose of this article. It can be bewildering when a casual observer tries to follow global events, something made more difficult by editorial policies at news outlets, and the commentary from most analysts, who are, frankly, ill-informed. Accordingly, this article addresses the topic that dominates our future. The most important players in the great game of geopolitics are America and China. Read More
Now that may work in a gently trending market. It has not worked at certain times and junctures in which both stocks and bonds decline together. So my sense is that there’s a lot of money in risk parity and that a forceful rise in interest rates, a steep decline in bond prices, is going to force liquidation of some part of the risk parity portfolios.
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