Editor's Note: It is unusual for "the Bear" to focus on non-financial issues. This story is revelant to your financial survival because of the depth of depravity that, not only Dees, but most, if not all of his associates participate. The Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) is a left wing control group that, in 2004, accused yours truely of running the only one man terrorist organization in the United States.
We are barely out of the gates in 2018 and the S&P 500 is up over 4%. From just looking around me it is clear entrepreneurs and consumers are optimistic about the future. For much of the last decade the general public wouldn't touch equities with a ten foot pole. Now people are taking on debt to buy as much cryptoassets as possible. I don't share this optimism and primarily look for investments outside of the U.S. and in special situations and investments that may have low or negative correlation to the general direction of the market. Seven reasons why I want to be very careful going into 2018: Read More

David and Maribel Maldonado seem the very definition of making it in America. David arrived in the U.S. from Mexico as a small child. His father supported the family by working long hours as a mechanic while his mother raised their 10 children. By the time David had a family of his own, his career as a salesman was flourishing. His wife Maribel, whose family is also from Mexico, worked as a hairstylist while caring for the couple’s two children. David’s annual salary reached about $113,000 by the time the children were in their teens. It was more than enough to live in a pretty suburban house outside Dallas, take family vacations, go to restaurants and splurge at the nearby mall. And to afford health insurance.


Extreme valuations in equity markets look less of an issue than they were a few months ago. The S&P 500 still looks over-stretched, with a P/E of 24.3x earnings – well above its 30-year average. The Shiller P/E, which adjusts for the cyclicality of earnings looks even worse. However, these figures are still not wildly excessive and earnings have kept pace so far. The upcoming earnings season will be an important indicator of whether there is good support for prices at these levels.

Led by the S&P, the next move in global equities is a black-hole plunge. Rather than protect long portfolios with Puts, why not liquidate them entirely? The Fed's stimulatory hand is played-out, & the impending Crash will strike with such force that the Silver Bullet from the past will no longer suffice to resuscitate the market. Since the market forecasts the economy more accurately than any economist, this time it's we, who must bite the Silver Bullet. Genuine Bull Markets reflect economic expansion by sub-dividing into 5-waves; Bear Market Rallies, like the Roaring Twenties, and Bernanke's megalomaniac Put are illusory, 3-wave upsides within larger Bear Markets. Only a 5-wave Crash is final. Artificial stimulus is an illicit drug, for which the Fed is the Global Pusher . Rather than more ?hair of the dog?, addicted economies can only heal via cold turkey abstinence. In return for numbing the pain of economic contraction, we have prevented healing the addiction, to dramatically aggravating the economy's ability to heal. By distorting economic incentives to divert capital away from the most worthy ventures, stimulus has exacerbated excess to perpetuate illusory Bubbles. The price of stimulus is a far more austere & enduring Depression, required to wring-out the excess via a rapid, downward GDP spiral to back-out stimulus in its entirety. Once the dollar collapse gains momentum to become universally recognized, the massive exodus out of the Dollar-denominated assets will force interest rates to skyrocket, to balloon the national debt out of control. As documented by Rogoff and Reinhart documented, This Time is NEVER different - eight centuries of financial Folly -a US default of
Here’s a scarier thought: At least 10 of the 11 FISA judges were appointed by OVomit. Recall, if you will, the forum shopping that is done in all of the cases against Pres. Trump for something he did or something he didn’t do. The FISA judge(s) may be as activist as the 9th Circuit, so they wouldn’t be concerned at all about the veracity of the pleadings he/she was looking at behind the FISA application. Remember Judge Boasberg, saw nothing wrong with ruling that the Comey memos could not be released to Judicial Watch, et al., even though some have already been leaked “because [the release] might prematurely reveal . . . the nature, scope, direction and focus of its investigations” involving Russia’s interference in the 2016 election”…in other words they’re being used by Mueller in his witch hunt. What I’m saying is THE FISA COURT, the secret court charged with authority to breach any American citizen’s 4th Amendment rights based on no witnesses, just documents, grant FISA approvals based on that documentation that shows probable cause based on the veracity of these documents. So here’s another “the fix is in” to ruin candidate Trump, president-elect Trump & President Trump & this time it is 1 or more OVomit-appointed FISA judges. Another clue: Where the H**ll is the ACLU?

Now that may work in a gently trending market. It has not worked at certain times and junctures in which both stocks and bonds decline together. So my sense is that there’s a lot of money in risk parity and that a forceful rise in interest rates, a steep decline in bond prices, is going to force liquidation of some part of the risk parity portfolios.
What effect will a bear market in bonds have on equities? That depends. If bond yields rise above a certain level, equity risk premiums will start to look less attractive. Higher rates also push up interest costs for corporations, although the bank's analysts say interest rates would have to increase by 100 basis points in the U.S. and 250 basis points in Europe before they become a noticeable drag on earnings.

This chart does a simple comparison of Osaka condo and Tokyo condo prices which does not reflect the entirety of the Japanese housing market.  Yet the path seems very similar.  Large areas with a real estate frenzy that hit high peaks and have struggled ever since.  In fact, if we look at nationwide prices we realize that Japan has seen a 20 year bear market in real estate:
Well Danny – let me tell you something. There are many, many other people out there who are intelligent and REFUSE TO BE TAKEN TO THE CLEANERS. Real estate is WAY overpriced in many areas, so if you say that we basically “need to pay at least 97% of the asking price,” I say you are the epitome of an UN-professional. You do not have the best interests of you buyers at heart. You only have your own selfish interests in mind.
We’re a wee while on now from this article, and I would say that things have moved on a little now. It is now possible to buy an “Infinite Turbo” from SG which gives you the straightforward return of a short or long position on say, the FTSE 100, with the leverage of your choice. Each ETF has its own “knockout” where you lose all your capital if your trade goes significantly against you, but you can’t lose more than your capital stake. Could be a useful tool for those with strong hearts wanting to eliminate the random number generating mechanism of daily products.
And while bear markets typically don't last long (most bear markets in the past have only lasted around 10-15 months), they can mean big losses. Bear markets are not the same as market corrections -- when the market drops 10% from a previous high -- but they can be started by a market crash (which happens when prices drop 10% in one or two days).  

Meeker provided an eloquent defense of short sales. He argued that the bears stabilize prices by providing liquidity and creating demand – by covering their shorts – in a falling market. Shorting was not illegitimate, in his view. “A short sale,” wrote Meeker, “represents a debt contracted in goods rather than money.” In this it was similar to many other business contracts.
As the presstitutes are aligned with the military/security complex, Hillary and the DNC, and the liberal/progressive/left, the Russiagate orchestration is a powerful conspiracy against the president of the United States and the “deplorables” who elected him. Nevertheless, the Russiagate Conspiracy has fallen apart and has now been turned against its originators. Read More
But as Sam Stewart of Seven Canyons Advisors points out, it’s never the clock that brings an end to an economic cycle. “It’s always excesses,” he says. Stewart sees “a hint” of excess here and there. But nothing like what we saw leading up to the housing-related market crisis 10 years ago. The kind of excesses that typically bring down the economy and the market may still be years away, he says.
Hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones, in an interview with Goldman Sachs, predicted a rise in inflation and a surge in the 10-year Treasury yield. Noted bond investor Bill Gross recently said the bear market in bond prices has begun. Billionaire investor Warren Buffett told CNBC on Monday he believes long-term investors should buy stocks over bonds.
This article considers the juxtaposition of colliding worldviews and the unified message that voters across the political spectrum are sending. While many investors are aware of the political change afoot, it seems that very few have considered how said changes might affect the economy and financial markets. In this article, we share some of our thoughts and encourage you to give the topic more consideration going forward. Read More

You are being directed to ZacksTrade, a division of LBMZ Securities and licensed broker-dealer. ZacksTrade and Zacks.com are separate companies. The web link between the two companies is not a solicitation or offer to invest in a particular security or type of security. ZacksTrade does not endorse or adopt any particular investment strategy, any analyst opinion/rating/report or any approach to evaluating indiv idual securities.

Furthermore, at their December meeting, the Fed hinted that they are willing to let inflation run a little over their 2% target. Although they upgraded GDP growth, their forecast for three hikes in 2017 remained unchanged. Given that Janet Yellen once said, “To me, a wise policy is occasionally to let inflation rise even when inflation is running above target,” this is no surprise.


Of course, no investment advisor in the world can tell you with 100% certainty what lies ahead. But with InvesTech’s time-proven “safety-first” strategy and objective proprietary indicators, you’ll have the tools you need to protect your hard-earned assets in bear markets and maximize profits in bull markets. Don’t miss a single critical issue of InvesTech Research…

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The US bear market of 2007–2009 was a 17-month bear market that lasted from October 9th 2007 to March 9th 2009, during the financial crisis of 2007-2009. The S&P 500 lost approximately 50% of its value, but the duration of this bear market was just below average due to extraordinary interventions by governments and central banks to prop up the stock market.
It’s not a coincidence that populism emerged as a political force in both the 1920s–1930s, and again today. In each case, people at the bottom could tell the economy wasn’t working in their favor. The best tool they had to do something about it was the vote, so they elected FDR then, and Trump now. Two very different presidents, but both responsive to the most intensely angered voters of their eras.
The Goldman Sachs Group operates as an investment banking, securities, and investment management company worldwide. The company has a Zacks Rank #2. In the last 60 days, seven earnings estimates moved north, while none moved south for the current year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings increased 7.6% in the same period. The company’s expected earnings growth rate for the current quarter and year is 15.5% and 26.5%, respectively.
The decline of 20% by mid-2008 was in tandem with other stock markets across the globe. On September 29, 2008, the DJIA had a record-breaking drop of 777.68 with a close at 10,365.45. The DJIA hit a market low of 6,443.27 on March 6, 2009, having lost over 54% of its value since the October 9, 2007 high.[6] The bear market reversed course on March 9, 2009, as the DJIA rebounded more than 20% from its low to 7924.56 after a mere three weeks of gains.[7] After March 9, the S&P 500 was up 30% by mid May and over 60% by the end of the year.
Having read Crash Proof and many other "Dollar is Doomed" books ..this give a great current synopsis on the happening events ... it is weird to read/hear Mr Schiff and is bolf predictions somehow come true. Even though flight to quality in the 'dollar' has hurt many of Mr. Schiffs investments ('currently') .. his insight on the future for our American way of life makes the book a must read.

George is well versed in several areas, so I’m sure we will get into many intense discussions on topics ranging from technology to finance to economics. Yet, George is only one of the speakers that attendees will get to hear and meet. I really hope you can be there to experience it in person, with me. If you’re ready to learn more about the SIC 2018, and the other speakers who will be there, you can do so, here.
Based on an analysis of the allocation of household assets over the whole 14-year bear market, it appears that the realignment of household assets took about six years, from 1968 to 1974. Figure 2 indicates how the inflation-adjusted values of assets in the households’ portfolios changed during that period. (Note that stock and bond totals include direct holdings as well as indirect holdings through mutual funds and pension funds.) Total financial assets fell by 7.5%, led by a 60% drop in equities. In the face of the weak stock market, households shifted into housing, which rose by 21% in value, and into monetary assets (that include cash, bank deposits, and money market mutual funds), which gained 24% in value. Bond holdings were little changed.

Intraday Data provided by SIX Financial Information and subject to terms of use. Historical and current end-of-day data provided by SIX Financial Information. All quotes are in local exchange time. Real-time last sale data for U.S. stock quotes reflect trades reported through Nasdaq only. Intraday data delayed at least 15 minutes or per exchange requirements.


Eleven GOP members of Congress led by Rep. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) have written a letter to Attorney General Jeff Sessions, Attorney John Huber, and FBI Director Christopher Wray - asking them to investigate former FBI Director James Comey, Hillary Clinton and others - including FBI lovebirds Peter Strzok and Lisa Page, for a laundry list of potential crimes surrounding the 2016 U.S. presidential election.

Exceptional Bear is the leading Market Timing Service tailored to the individual investor. If you are confident in taking a leading role in your own investment decisions, trusting your own judgement above that of any expert. You have come to the right place for exceptional guidance. Our track record includes the all-time record Bear Market performance in stocks.  When the S&P plunged 37% in the 2008-2009 Financial crisis, clients who followed our independently-verified guidance earned in excess of 360%.  Since then, Exceptional Bear has been awarded Timer Digest's Timer of the Year in 2015, the #2 Stock Timer by a nose in 2014 and Bond Timer of the Year in 2013. Such outstanding performance in down and flat markets is an objective measure of New-Wave Elliott mastery, the cutting-edge tool for managing portfolios during wildly volatile Bear Market dives.

A major difference between the current bear market and the long bear market of the 1970s is the economic environment. During the 1970s, the growth rate of productivity fell by nearly half, while inflation reached double-digits. These factors contributed significantly to the poor performance of the stock market during that period. However, during the current bear market, productivity has held up well, while inflation is not seen to be a significant threat in the near future. In hindsight, it is clear that the sharp decline in the stock market over the past two years was driven in large measure by excessive optimism in the value of high technology to the economy, at least in the near term. This zeal likely contributed to a period of overinvestment by businesses, particularly in the computer and telecommunications sectors, which suffered substantially in the last recession and have been slow to recover. However, the long-run benefits of technological innovation to the economy should be a positive factor for corporate equities, particularly if inflation remains low. If this proves to be true, households should begin to weight stocks more heavily in their asset holdings, making it unlikely that we will see a replay of the protracted bear market of the 1970s.


Jim, I have so much been looking forward – ever since we launched this podcast two years ago with Jim Rogers, actually, as our first guest – I’ve been looking forward to getting you on the program. And, frankly, I’m glad it took this long because I don’t think there’s ever been a more important time in the last ten years to be very closely observing interest rates.
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