Dark Ages is not a silly username—it is a compelling fear that we are repeating the mistakes of all great civilizations, with arrogance that we can merely crush nations that will not continue to take our paper for their tangible goods. I don’t know whether folks dismiss this ranting as nonsense or actually are concerned that this is where we are headed. I cannot imagine a rainbow behind this cloud, although I was in North Carolina recently and saw a beautiful rainbow to the east, while death and destruction were occurring underneath that storm.
The causes and characteristics of bear markets vary, but most financial theorists agree that economic cycles and investor sentiment both play a role in the creation and momentum of bear markets. In general, a weak or weakening economy -- indicated by low employment, low disposable income, and declining business profits -- ushers in a bear market. The existence of several new trading lows for well-known companies might also indicate that a bear market is occurring. It is important to note that government involvement affects bear markets. Changes in the federal funds rate or in various tax rates can encourage economic expansion or contraction, ultimately leading to bull or bear markets.
JOIN PETER at the New Orleans Investment Conferencehttps://neworleansconference.com/conference-schedule/Ominous OctoberToday was the end of the month of September; it's also the end of the third quarter we are now beginning the final quarter of the year. When we come back to trading next week, we will be in the month of October, and as I mentio ...…
Like the Doctor, I think home prices are resetting to fundamentals. When you lose your equity suddenly you don’t care if prices fall another 30 to 40 percent. With this growing contingent of negative equity homeslaves approaching critical mass you may see the following solution arise to reset home prices so our economy can regain its stability as people will have more money available for other parts of their budget that is now being confiscated for the Too Big To Fails.
MACRO VOICES is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information presented in MACRO VOICES should NOT be construed as investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. The opinions expressed on MACRO VOICES are those of the participants. MACRO VOICES, its producers, and hosts Erik Townsend and Nathan Egger shall NOT be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on MACRO VOICES.
Let's spin the time machine back to the late Middle Ages, at the height of feudalism, and imagine we're trying to get a boatload of goods to the nearest city to sell. As we drift down the river, we're constantly being stopped and charged a fee for transiting one small fiefdom after another. When we finally reach the city, there's an entry fee for bringing our goods to market. Read More
Obviously nobody knows for sure. That is what makes investing interesting and sometimes downright scary. But we need to parse through the data available and find where our convictions lie. This article is meant to give readers all the ammunition they need to discern a position for themselves but we will also provide our assessment at the end. It is fine to disagree. We need investors on both sides of the argument. That is what makes up a marketplace in the first place.
I’ve never liked talking about the future. The Q&A sessions always end up more like parlor games, where I’m asked to opine on the latest technology buzzwords as if they were ticker symbols for potential investments: blockchain, 3D printing, CRISPR. The audiences are rarely interested in learning about these technologies or their potential impacts beyond the binary choice of whether or not to invest in them. But money talks, so I took the gig. Read More
Rate and Review This Podcast on iTuneshttps://www.branddrivendigital.com/how-to-rate-and-review-a-podcast-in-itunes/The Bulls Had No FearToday may be Halloween, but the Bulls had no fear. The U.S. stock markets closed higher today for the second consecutive day - the first time for the month of October. A lot of traders are probably happy that ...…
Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN - Free Report) engages in the retail sale of consumer products and subscriptions in North America and internationally. The company has a Zacks Rank #2. In the last 60 days, 19 earnings estimates moved up, while none moved down for the current year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings soared 39.3% in the same period. The company’s expected earnings growth rate for the current quarter and year is 526.9% and 290.8%, respectively.
The DJIA actually did a lot better than a lot of the other averages. The Dow Jones transports were down just over 4%; 445 points. the NASDAQ was down over 4% as well - 315 points. Weakness across the board in the stock market today. And it's not just the homebuilders and the autos. I've been talking about those sectors as leading indicators and, yes, many of those stocks made new 52-week lows today as well. But they were not the worst performers on the day.
For context, consider the last three bear markets. The most recent one, which lasted for 517 days from October 2007 to March 2009, saw a whopping 57% plunge in the S&P 500. During the 929-day bear market from March 2000 to October 2002, the benchmark lost 49%. And during the relatively brief, 101-day period from August to December 1987, the index tumbled 34%.
I am sure you remember the lead up to Q1 2016. The US economy and stock market were transitioning from a Goldilocks environment and narrowly avoiding a bear market while the rest of the world was still battling deflation. Precious metals and commodities were in the dumper and try though US and global central banks might, they seemed to fail to woo the inflation genie out of its bottle at every turn.
The first chart comes from my friend, John Hussman, and shows his margin-adjusted version of the cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio. This improved version of the CAPE ratio (improved because it has a greater negative correlation with future 12-year returns) shows equity valuations have now surpassed both the dotcom mania peak in 2000 and the 1929 mania peak. Read More
Developed by Eduardo Mirahyes, founder of Exceptional Bear, over 28 years of hands-on experience, post completion of the Elliott Wave Advanced Tutorial. History repeats itself nowhere more often than in the Market. The essence of "Elliott" is pattern recognition, to understand the underlying herding psychology, to enable forecasting with a high degree of certainty, rather than herding madness of crowds, to minimize emotion and fear.
A very long and unnecessarily drawn out novel which included too much detail about war planning and the various weapons used. U.S. casualties were unrealistically low. Author did not recognize the U.S. National Missile Defense system. Not believable that the Russians would allow the Chinese to retreat from their soil without retribution. I read the book to the end to find out what would happen; it held my attention. This book is not up to Clancy's past books for credibility.
Water in faults vaporizes during an earthquake, depositing gold, according to a model published in the March 17 issue of the journal Nature Geoscience. The model provides a quantitative mechanism for the link between gold and quartz seen in many of the world's gold deposits, said Dion Weatherley, a geophysicist at the University of Queensland in Australia and lead author of the study. Read More
Matthew has written a most timely book to prepare us for the bear market. Within the pages are nuggets of wisdom to help us identify the onset of bear markets and what strategies to take or not to take in such market volatility, to either stay safe or to profit from the stocks carnage in a bear market. Those with strong stomachs can consider the profit making strategies. For the rest of us, we wait for the golden opportunities at the bottom of the bear market to profit. What I like about the book is the wealth of timely advice and reality checks to temper our irrational exuberance In stock trading. Thank you Matthew for your timely and wise guidance, as always. Highly recommended book for your financial health.
I often say that every great thinker has one “big idea.” George’s information theory of economics certainly qualifies as one of those. You’ve likely heard me mention how important exposing yourself to these big, powerful ideas is. Well, that’s exactly what I aim to do with my Strategic Investment Conference. I have invited George to speak at the SIC 2018 in San Diego, this coming March.
Falling consumer confidence. This is generally one of the last dominoes to drop leading up to a bear market, partly because people are too stubborn to think any economic party could possibly end, and partly because they don’t have the data or the skill to analyze what’s going on behind the scenes. In other words — consumers are usually “the last ones to see it coming.”
A high-level assassination attempt in Russia has the newly elected Ryan sending his most trusted eyes and ears—including antiterrorism specialist John Clark—to Moscow, for he fears the worst is yet to come. And he’s right. The attempt has left the already unstable Russia vulnerable to ambitious forces in China eager to fulfill their destiny—and change the face of the world as we know it...
My hope is that President Trump will read Knowledge and Power and give a copy to all cabinet members—as Ronald Reagan did with Wealth and Poverty. Maybe I’m too optimistic, but if we began basing economic and monetary policy on George’s information theory of economics, I believe there would be a complete revitalization of the American entrepreneurial spirit.
In years of peace, Diocletian, with his aides, faced the problems of economic decay. To overcome depression and prevent revolution, he substituted a managed economy for the law of supply and demand. He established a sound currency by guaranteeing to the gold coinage a fixed weight and purity which it retained in the Eastern Empire till 1453. He distributed food to the poor at half the market price or free, and undertook extensive public works to appease the unemployed. To ensure the supply of necessaries for the cities and the armies, he brought many branches of industry under complete state control, beginning with the import of grain; he persuaded the shipowners, merchants, and crews engaged in this trade to accept such control in return for governmental guarantee of security in employment and returns. Read More
Mild diversification is the ticket to making money. Have some concentration in your best ideas and avoid the worst spots of the economy. As you know, I have been buying the First Trust ISE-Revere Natural Gas ETF FCG, +0.56% on what I believe is value pricing that will not last much more than a year or two. I have been selling most high P/E stocks and mutual funds with the word "growth" in the title as new clients bring them to me. I don't like anything that relies on a weak dollar to succeed since I believe the dollar is likely in a new higher trading range compared to a decade ago. I talk more about what I like and don't like in my recent free quarterly investor report.
Purchasers of municipal bonds should be aware that not all municipal bonds are tax-exempt, and not all tax-exempt bonds are exempt from all federal and state taxes. The laws governing the taxability of municipal bond income are complex. At the federal level they are contained in the IRS Code (Sections 103, 141-150), and rules promulgated thereunder. Additionally, special rules apply to certain types of investors (e.g., financial institution and property and casualty insurance companies) or in certain situations. For example, there is no IRS Code exemption for capital or other gains received from the sale of a municipal bonds and special rules apply for secondary market discount and original issue discount on municipal bonds. Each state will have its own laws governing what bonds, if any, are exempt from state taxes. For publicly offered bonds and most private placements, at the time of issuance a legal opinion will be provided indicating that the interest bonds are tax-exempt; these opinions do not customarily address collateral tax treatment. Offering documents, such as an official statement or placement memorandum, will contain further information regarding tax treatment of interest on the bonds. Investors should be aware that there are also post-issuance compliance requirements that must be met to ensure that the bonds remain tax-exempt. The IRS has a specific section of their website, www.irs.gov, devoted to tax exempt bonds and compliance with federal requirements.
Historically, municipal bonds have been one of the least liquid assets on the market. While stocks can be bought and sold within seconds on exchange platforms, given the current absence of widespread secondary market platforms for the exchange of stocks, municipal bonds are much harder to maneuver. At the same time, the minimum investment amounts for stocks are typically <$500 and about $1000 for CDs and money markets; in comparison, municipal bonds have higher average buy-in minimums of $5000. These minimum investment amounts previously barred many individuals from investing in bonds.
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So many top professionals in the financial industry are sounding the alarm about a coming stock market crash right now. And there certainly have been rumblings in 2018 – not too long ago we had a three day stretch that was called “the tech bloodbath”, and during that time Facebook had the worst day for a single company in stock market history. But we haven’t seen the really big “crash” yet. Many have been waiting for it to happen for several years, and some people out there are convinced that it is never going to come at all. Read More
He remains confident stocks will see a fresh string of new highs in the final months of the year. Referring to history as a guide, Stovall noted that the fourth quarter is pretty strong during midterm election years, and seasonality points to more gains. He believes it will be easy for the S&P to grab another 80 points and break above 3,000 by year-end.