For investors looking to maintain some positions in the stock market, a defensive strategy is usually taken. This type of strategy involves investing in larger companies with strong balance sheets and a long operational history, which are considered to be defensive stocks. The reason for this is that these larger, more stable companies tend to be less affected by an overall downturn in the economy or stock market, making their share prices less susceptible to a larger fall. With strong financial positions, including large cash holdings to meet ongoing operational expenses, these companies are more likely to survive downturns.

The nominal returns, before accounting for inflation, were actually pretty decent for bonds during these real bears. Over their 45 and 50-year real bear markets, 5-year treasuries and long-term bonds returned 4.6% and 4.7% respectively on an annual basis. Bond investors would kill for those types of returns at the moment if it didn’t come with that pesky inflation.
First, more NYSE stocks are bought on margin now than at any time since the 1950s, and Faber interprets this as a sign of overvaluation. Indeed, he finds that stock prices are "out of control," per Money, with the market P/E ratio nearly double its historical average. Once a selloff begins, Faber expects it to become an avalanche in which "asset holders will lose 50% of their assets [and] some people will lose everything," as Money quotes him.
The Outsider Club is a group of people ready to take our finances into our own hands; to manage our own investments; to not give into a system that skims off the top until it's time for you to retire. We offer expert opinion and guidance on saving, retirement and financial planning, taxes, investments, and generally how to financially thrive on your own, independent of the banking system and government. We'll also help you shield your civil liberties and freedoms. We pledge allegiance to no political party.
Very timely, thanks. And trust Monevator to have warned of this ages ago. I too have a friend who buys these but as day trades (naughty, I know). But when we met up in the pub the other night after work he seemed very pleased with himself and his returns, though he sticks to bank stocks (I know..) Having said that, bank stocks for the next 6-12 months seem quite the trend amongst bankers now, at least in the States..
       We hope to buy a 2,000 sq., Ft., or larger single story, move in ready, single family residence with Good Bones and plenty of yard ( acres ) with privacy, (no Tracts or busy streets) and must be quiet area. We want to live modestly and without the cost and hassles of Mella Roos, HOAs or the many City ordinances. A ranch or farm land preferred. We hope to move once and to stay for at least 10 to 15 years before we retire, then move out of the area for good.
In the beginning of 2017, you could buy 1 Bitcoin for around $700-$900. Throughout the summer, Bitcoins price started to soar and seemed to reach new highs on almost a daily basis. In the fall of 2017, Bitcoin continued its impressive run, doubling in price in a 30 day period while breaking through the much anticipated $10,000 USD mark. On December 7th, Bitcoin went parabolic and breached $19,000 USD before settling in the $15,000 – $17,000 range. Even long-term Bitcoin enthusiasts were shocked at this price movement. With these spectacular new highs, more people are discovering Bitcoin and it’s becoming increasingly difficult for media pundits to write Bitcoin off as some cypherpunk fad or anomaly. Make no mistake, for better or for worse, Bitcoin has arrived in a big way and it has officially put the financial world on notice.  Read More
The haunting Gary Jules version of the Tears for Fears’ Mad World speaks to me in these tumultuous mad times. It must speak to many others, as the music video has been viewed over 132 million times. The melancholy video is shot from the top of an urban school building in a decaying decrepit bleak neighborhood with school children creating various figures on the concrete pavement below. The camera pans slowly to Gary Jules singing on the rooftop and captures the concrete jungle of non-descript architecture, identical office towers, gray cookie cutter apartment complexes, and a world devoid of joy and vibrancy. Read More
Phew. Ok. So everything above seems completely ridiculous and indicates basically everyone involved – with the exception of Trump, Nunes, and maybe Sessions – are completely and utterly stupid! If this was a Clancy novel, it would at least have a plausible conspiracy! This one is just dumb. Hillary and DNC funded Steele to collude with Russia to MAKE STUFF UP about POTUS Trump and uses a corrupt and clearly bias FBI and DOJ to facilitate the whole thing. You cannot ask for a more stupid plot to this story! It is just bad!

Michael Wilson, the chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley (MS - Free Report) , added that “over the past two months, the U.S. equity market has moved decidedly more defensive and value is showing more persistent performance versus growth.” This move toward defensive sectors and value strategies indicated that the market is concerned about growth fading later this year and next.
Since January, gold futures speculators have been trending from extremely bullish to scared short. And in the week ending last Tuesday (the most recent data available) they appeared to capitulate, adding a massive number of short positions while marginally cutting their longs. They’re now about as close to neutral as they’ve ever been. Based on the history of the past decade this is hugely bullish, since speculators tend to be wrong when they’re fully convinced they’re right. Read More

It's been so very long. I certainly did not miss them, but I knew that I would see them again. Though I would not mind if they never showed their face in these parts again. That said, here they are... the Four Horsemen. The fact is that when these four all show their faces at one time, it may already be too late to seek shelter... you are going to have to fight from where you now stand. They are:
The set of sanctions that the U.S. began placing on Iran back in 2010 can be best thought of as a monetary blockade. It relied on deputizing U.S. banks to act as snitches. Any U.S. bank that was caught providing correspondent accounts to a foreign bank that itself helped Iran engage in sanctioned activities would be fined. To avoid being penalized, U.S. banks threatened their foreign bank customers to stop enabling Iranian payments or lose their accounts. And of course the foreign banks (mostly) complied. Read More

JOIN PETER at the New Orleans Investment Conferencehttps://neworleansconference.com/conference-schedule/A Very Volatile and Technically Weak Trading Day for the DowHere I am for the third day in a row doing a podcast. It's market volatility that has brought me to the mic yet again. The Dow Jones down 525 points; a very volatile and technically ...…


Per the latest COT report (note: this references the August 21st COT Report), the hedge fund (Managed Money) net short position in Comex paper gold was 90,000 contracts – by far a record short position for the hedge fund trader category. Conversely, the bank net long position (Swap Dealers) in Comex paper gold was close to an all-time high. It’s not quite as high it was in December 2015.
I suspect there’s a hidden agenda behind the announcement in The Wall Street Journal op-ed by former Hillary Clinton aide Mark Penn that the Ole Gray Mare is actually eyeing another run for the White House in 2020. No, it’s not just that she would like to be president, as she averred on video last week in a weak moment, or that she has decided late in life to go full Bolshevik policy-wise. It is to establish her in the public mind as a serious candidate so that when she is indicted a hue-and-cry will arise that the move is a purely political act of revenge by the wicked Trump. Read More
Historically, the worst bear markets happened amid extreme market valuation or lengthy economic recession, or both. After eight years of economic expansion, the US economy is close to the late stage of the current boom cycle. The current high valuation is certainly a cause for concern.  While it is hard to predict exactly when the bear market will happen, high valuation, together with a possible economic recession will likely make the bear market more severe when it finally materializes.
I’m in the inflation camp. I think it’s coming. I have thought this for a while. People have looked all over for it as if looking for a lost sock or a hairpin: Where did it go? Where is that thing? But I do believe that the central bankers who have been kind of begging for inflation will be surprised at the generosity of the inflation gods over what they will ultimately be handed.
In the biggest move, the gauntlet has been cast by the Chinese as they challenge the U.S. petrodollar, with the formal announcement of a March 26th start for gold-backed-yuan oil futures trading.  Asian secret society sources say the Year of the Dog, which is just starting, usually brings volatility (in this case presumably in the financial markets) before things settle down into a new normal as the year progresses. Read More
A more intelligent approach is to have assets like U.S. Treasuries during a bear market for U.S. equities.  Some short positions in the most popular funds are more aggressive and also will usually be profitable.  In the first year of a bear market for U.S. equities, commodity producers and emerging markets often outperform as they have already been doing since January 20, 2016 and which will likely continue through some point in 2018.
The satan-worshipping Khazarian mafia is in a frenzy of fear as military tribunals loom.  As a result, they are offering the world (as if it were theirs to give) to China in exchange for protection, according to Gnostic Illuminati and Asian secret society sources.  In addition to this, they are threatening to unleash pandemics, blow up the Yellowstone Caldera, set off a massive EMP attack, and cause other mayhem in a futile effort (as these attempts will be neutralized) to blackmail themselves out of the reach of long-delayed justice.  Also, they are carrying out a foolish and widely derided smear campaign to derail the appointment of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. Read More
He is, in addition, the author of a pair of political biographies: John Adams: Party of One, a life of the second president of the United States (Farrar, Straus, 2005) and Mr. Speaker! The Life and Times of Thomas B. Reed, the Man Who Broke the Filibuster (Simon & Schuster, 2011). His new biography of Walter Bagehot, the Victorian man of letters and financial journalist, will be published in 2018.
Dr. D: You have to understand what exchanges are and are not. An exchange is a central point where owners post collateral and thereby join and trade on the exchange. The exchange backs the trades with their solvency and reputation, but it’s not a barter system, and it’s not free: the exchange has to make money too. Look at the Comex, which reaches back to the early history of commodities exchange which was founded to match buyers of say, wheat, like General Mills, with producers, the farmers. But why not just have the farmer drive to the local silo and sell there? Two reasons: one, unlike manufacturing, harvests are lumpy. To have everyone buy or sell at one time of the year would cripple the demand for money in that season. This may be why market crashes happen historically at harvest when the demand for money (i.e. Deflation) was highest. Secondly, however, suppose the weather turned bad: all farmers would be ruined simultaneously. Read More

The satan-worshipping Khazarian mafia is in a frenzy of fear as military tribunals loom.  As a result, they are offering the world (as if it were theirs to give) to China in exchange for protection, according to Gnostic Illuminati and Asian secret society sources.  In addition to this, they are threatening to unleash pandemics, blow up the Yellowstone Caldera, set off a massive EMP attack, and cause other mayhem in a futile effort (as these attempts will be neutralized) to blackmail themselves out of the reach of long-delayed justice.  Also, they are carrying out a foolish and widely derided smear campaign to derail the appointment of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. Read More
Given the outsized effect that monetary tightening is having on the economy, will the Fed be able to continue on its current tightening program? How are stocks and bonds likely to perform in this environment? And how will the coming wave of retirees, which will significantly increase mandatory spending, affect the measures I discussed in this letter?
During bear market periods, investing can be risky even for the most seasoned of investors. A bear market is a period marked with falling stock prices. In a bear market, investor confidence is extremely low. Many investors opt to sell off their stocks during a bear market for fear of further losses, thus fueling a vicious cycle of negativity. Although the financial implications of bear markets can vary, typically, bear markets are marked by a 20% downturn or more in stock prices over at least a two-month timeframe.
Before we dive in, I want to make clear that the goal of this letter is not to say whether liberal internationalism is good or bad, or defend the backlash against it. My objective is to highlight the current state of the order and give insight into Niall’s argument behind why he believes it is over. As investors, it is imperative we understand this trend because it has major implications for financial markets we need to think about. With that being said, let’s dive straight in.
While that’s not the highest level of P/E ratio ever compared to the late 1990s, the median price-to- sales ratio is at the highest level ever at 2.5 times. That’s about three standard deviations above the norm. You don’t have to be a math whiz to know that three standard deviations are way outside of normal bounds. Bad things happen when the rubber band is stretched that far.

Historically, many things have been used as money. Cattle have been used as money in many societies, including Roman society. That’s where we get the word “pecuniary” from: the Latin word for a single head of cattle is pecus. Salt has been used as money, also in ancient Rome, and that’s where the word “salary” comes from; the Latin for salt is sal (or salis). The North American Indians used seashells. Cigarettes were used during WWII. So, money is simply a medium of exchange and a store of value. Read More


The point being that there were several large and scary corrections during that S&P 500 and Nasdaq rally: in 1997, the Thai baht and Malaysian ringgit devaluation that led to rolling devaluations throughout southeast Asia disrupted the S&P 500 in the 2nd half of 1997. Then we saw the 1998 Long Term Capital Crisis, which resulted in Greenspan cutting short-term rates in the middle of a white-hot economy, and that's just two nasty pullbacks in that record bull market.
"Less central bank liquidity support as we near the end of an economic cycle should bring higher volatility as risk assets and markets lose some of their ability to absorb shocks. Our call is not for a simultaneous and large repricing across risk assets, but for a bear market that rolls through different assets and sectors at different times with the weakest links (Bitcoin, EM debt and equities, BTPs, funding spreads, base metals, and early cycle industries like home builders and airlines) being hit first/hardest."
Municipal bonds may be general obligations of the issuer or secured by specified revenues. In the United States, interest income received by holders of municipal bonds is often excludable from gross income for federal income tax purposes under Section 103 of the Internal Revenue Code, and may be exempt from state income tax as well, depending on the applicable state income tax laws. The state and local exemption was the subject of recent litigation in Department of Revenue of Kentucky v. Davis, 553 U.S. 328 (2008).[4]

First, market timing is difficult and often unreliable. But the anonymous author behind the brilliant Philosophical Economics blog (his Twitter handle is Jesse Livermore, the name of a legendary investor of the early twentieth century who made and lost millions and committed suicide in 1940) came up with a terrific method. It’s well worth your while reading his post In Search of the Perfect Recession Indicator.
All international problems are currently suspended, awaiting the results of the US mid-term elections. The partisans of the old international order are gambling on a change of majority in Congress and a rapid destitution of President Trump. If the man in the White House holds fast, the protagonists of the war against Syria will have to admit defeat and move on to other battle fields. On the other hand, if Donald Trump should lose the elections, the war on Syria will immediately be revived by the United Kingdom. Read More
Financial and precious metals expert Egon von Greyerz (EvG) vaults gold for clients at two secret locations on two continents. EvG is sounding the alarm about record breaking global risk and warns, “With this risk, people have to take insurance. This business is not a business, it is a passion, and I have a passion to help the few people that see the risks. . . . I think your best wealth preservation will be gold.”

In years of peace, Diocletian, with his aides, faced the problems of economic decay. To overcome depression and prevent revolution, he substituted a managed economy for the law of supply and demand. He established a sound currency by guaranteeing to the gold coinage a fixed weight and purity which it retained in the Eastern Empire till 1453. He distributed food to the poor at half the market price or free, and undertook extensive public works to appease the unemployed. To ensure the supply of necessaries for the cities and the armies, he brought many branches of industry under complete state control, beginning with the import of grain; he persuaded the shipowners, merchants, and crews engaged in this trade to accept such control in return for governmental guarantee of security in employment and returns.  Read More

Having lived through and traded the bear markets since 2000, I can attest to the accuracy of the descriptions provided - especially the psychological roller coaster that takes place. Forewarned is forearmed when the next bear market appears. The trading suggestions for bear markets range from the straightforward to the more advanced. I was slightly disappointed that there was no mention of using inverse ETFs in a bear market - perhaps a topic for a future bonus section.
It is human nature to allow emotions such as fear, greed and egotism get in the way. Overconfidence is one of the biggest killers of portfolios. Barber and Odean in a 2000 paper show that “after accounting for trading costs, individual investors underperform relevant benchmarks. Those who trade the most realize, by far, the worst performance. This is what the models of overconfident investors predict” (http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu...)
While the precious metals are totally off the radar by the majority of investors, silver is setting up for one major bull market.  Yes, it’s hard to believe as the gold and silver prices have been trending lower while the broader markets grind up higher, but if we look at the fundamental and technical indicators, the stock market and precious metals are now at extreme opposites.
The online battle royale game Fortnite: Battle Royale parodies Smokey and his motto in a loading screen featuring Cuddle Team Leader, a woman dressed in a teddy bear costume replacing Smokey and doing his signature finger-pointing pose. Below her is the message "Only YOU can prevent V-Buck scams", warning players not to risk security compromises by attempting to obtain free virtual currency offered by hackers as bait.[71]
A bear market occurs when the major indices continue to go lower over time. They will hit new lows. More important, their highs will be lower than before as well. The average length of a bear market is 367 days. The conventional wisdom says it usually lasts 18 months. Bear markets occurred 32 times between 1900 and 2008, with an average duration of 367 days. They typically happened once every three years.
After the financial crisis and bear market of 2008-09, the Employee Benefit Research Institute did a study of how typical Americans fared with their retirement plan accounts at work. The study found that the average 401(k) account balance plunged by more than 25% during 2008, reflecting stock ownership in most plans. But those who kept participating consistently through 401(k) contributions reaped the rewards of the recovery, as the median balance rose at an impressive 16% annual pace over the four years following the bear market low.
Quite simply, I think stock investors looked at the surfacing of real problems in their favorite FAANG stocks and, so, failed this time to find any fun in the frivolous fiction of government factoids. GDP reportage has been fake for years, and it is no less fake under Trump than under any other president. Fake is where you find it. You can find it as much on Fox as on CNN.  Read More
Boneparth said that, based on his recent moves, the most likely explanation for the surge into bond funds is rebalancing. "We've been watching 5 to 10 percent of portfolios that have created built- in risk over the past few years and now are moving out of equities and back into fixed income," he said. "You're probably seeing a lot of that take place at the retail level."
Major international comparisons have long concluded that Americans’ ability to effectively utilize mathematics is inadequate. Such conclusions divide students, parents, teachers and administrators into camps that share little more than blaming others for the problems. However, it is unclear whether all the finger-pointing indicates a real desire to overcome our innumeracy. In fact, we systematically misuse numbers to distort reality because we want to fool ourselves, making our ineptitude no surprise.
For me, this is the most important part of George’s new economics. The entrepreneur must know that if his product or service succeeds at the market, it won’t be regulated out of existence. And the profits will not be taxed away. If he doesn’t have that assurance, the likelihood of turning his idea into a product or service is greatly diminished. That results in less entrepreneurial creations, which means less knowledge and wealth in the economy.
Waverton Investment Management (Waverton) is an independent, owner-managed investment management firm based in London. The cornerstone of our business is the active management of investment portfolios for institutions, advisers, family offices, charities and high net worth individuals via segregated portfolios or through specialist funds. As of 31st December 2017, Waverton had approximately £5.5 billion of assets under management, employing over 120 staff.
The rise in European yields is to some degree a reversal of the bizarre situation in which bond markets found themselves several weeks ago. The European Central Bank's quantitative easing program created a supply shortage for bonds, and in some cases yields fell deep into negative territory. They remained negative even as the Eurozone economy was showing signs of recovery and inflation expectations were rising. The sharp increase in yields in recent days could be seen as an overdue correction.
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