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Thank you for visiting the homepage of this five-part series on the individuals and ideas shaping my worldview. I have gained a lot of knowledge from these truly great minds, and the purpose of this series is to share what I have learned with you, my readers. I’m confident that the writings that follow will help you better understand the trends shaping the future of financial markets, and our economy.
Third, the mostly toothless SEC has allowed the creation of all manner of leveraged tools (negative ETFS and put options) for hedging and shorting on DOWN-TICKS. This is something that was banned from 1934 to 2007 for good reason, viz. deepening the Depression. Did you know that even Herbert Hoover wanted to curb short-selling? But not our SEC. Not now. Hedge funds and big fund managers and wealthy investors can readily buy these leveraged shorts on indexes in a blink of an eye, without regard to the last tick. So, of course, they use them as the 65-dma has finally turned down and as support levels, one after another fail. We saw exactly what this can do to the market in October 1987. It fell 30%+ in three weeks back then. And the DJI was not so over-extended. It had been in a bull market for less than five years. But it did have a new Fed Chairman (Greenspan), just like now, who needed to be properly baptized and schooled by Wall Street under fire, so that he would be tamed, not rock the boat and be henceforth pledged to shore up the market if it again collapsed.
Water in faults vaporizes during an earthquake, depositing gold, according to a model published in the March 17 issue of the journal Nature Geoscience. The model provides a quantitative mechanism for the link between gold and quartz seen in many of the world's gold deposits, said Dion Weatherley, a geophysicist at the University of Queensland in Australia and lead author of the study. Read More
TheEconomiCollapse.com's Michael Snyder thinks so. For a very long time, Ron Paul has been one of my political heroes.  His willingness to stand up for true constitutional values and to keep saying “no” to the Washington establishment over and over again won the hearts of millions of American voters, and I wish that there had been enough of us to send him to the White House either in 2008 or in 2012.  To this day, I still wish that we could make his classic work entitled “End The Fed” required reading in every high school classroom in America.  He was one of the few members of Congress that actually understood economics, and it is very sad that he has now retired from politics.  With the enormous mess that Washington D.C. has become, we sure could use a lot more statesmen like him right now. Read More

Waverton Investment Management (Waverton) is an independent, owner-managed investment management firm based in London. The cornerstone of our business is the active management of investment portfolios for institutions, advisers, family offices, charities and high net worth individuals via segregated portfolios or through specialist funds. As of 31st December 2017, Waverton had approximately £5.5 billion of assets under management, employing over 120 staff.
Since January, gold futures speculators have been trending from extremely bullish to scared short. And in the week ending last Tuesday (the most recent data available) they appeared to capitulate, adding a massive number of short positions while marginally cutting their longs. They’re now about as close to neutral as they’ve ever been. Based on the history of the past decade this is hugely bullish, since speculators tend to be wrong when they’re fully convinced they’re right. Read More
Globalization has been bad for these sections of society because it changed the relative value of capital and labor. When capital and goods could flow freely between the US and emerging market countries, the value of labor in the US fell dramatically. Today, we are at a point where labor share of income has fallen to an all-time low of 57%. That means a growing fraction of the gains have been going to capital, and those who have it.

It is human nature to allow emotions such as fear, greed and egotism get in the way. Overconfidence is one of the biggest killers of portfolios. Barber and Odean in a 2000 paper show that “after accounting for trading costs, individual investors underperform relevant benchmarks. Those who trade the most realize, by far, the worst performance. This is what the models of overconfident investors predict” (http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu...)
"Every time we’ve had a rally in the last 10 years, ever since J.P. Morgan took over the investment bank Bear Stearns, J.P. Morgan has added aggressively to its paper short division on the COMEX as speculators, technical fund,s and what-have-you come in to chase rallies higher. J.P. Morgan has always been the seller of last resort, and they sell whatever is required to satisfy all buying. And, ultimately, after that buying is satisfied, the prices roll over and come back down. This is the "wash, rinse, repeat" cycle that many people have become aware of. J.P. Morgan adding short positions has stopped every rally in silver -- and gold, for that matter -- over the last 10 years. Read More
Municipal bonds have traditionally had very low rates of default as they are backed either by revenue from public utilities (revenue bonds), or state and local government power to tax (general obligation bonds). However, sharp drops in property valuations resulting from the 2009 mortgage crisis have led to strained state and local finances, potentially leading to municipal defaults. For example, Harrisburg, PA, when faced with falling revenues, skipped several bond payments on a municipal waste to energy incinerator and did not budget more than $68m for obligations related to this public utility. The prospect of Chapter 9 municipal bankruptcy was raised by the Controller of Harrisburg, although it was opposed by Harrisburg's mayor.[19]
The post-millennials have arrived. As the oldest millennials turn 37, demographers have designated a new generation for those born after 1996, Generation Z. The oldest members of this cohort just graduated from college and had their first (legal) alcoholic beverages. As they wind their way through college, post-millennials will change higher education, just as previous generations did. 
The Dow is now gyrating after it plunged to 16,450 Friday and experienced an intra-day swing of near 1,100 points on Monday, leaving it more than 10 percent below its record close in May. The Dow hit an 18-month low at 16,106 on Monday morning before it trimmed losses. The NASDAQ is down 11 percent from a record high reached earlier this year and is on pace for its worst month since November 2008.

Felix Zulauf was a member of the Barron’s Roundtable for about 30 years, until relinquishing his seat at our annual investment gathering in 2017. While his predictions were more right than wrong, it was the breadth of his knowledge and the depth of his analysis of global markets that won him devoted fans among his Roundtable peers, the crew at Barron’s, and beyond. Simply put, Felix, president of Zulauf Asset Management in Baar, Switzerland, always knew—and still knows—better than most how to connect the dots among central bankers’ actions, fiscal policies, currency gyrations, geopolitics, and the price of assets, hard and soft. Read More
Now the Bruce and Nellie Ohr syory is actually funny and a complete novel yet it digs to the heart and the real meat of the deep tentacles these rascals were using… The Ohr story is the best proof yet and I will never believe Sessions and company did not know all this long ago. Like before he recused……These people are like impacted infected wisdom teeth that need pulling and maybe cracking with a hammer first to get it all out….
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Velocity can also tell us about the long-term direction of bond yields. As velocity is a main determinate of nominal GDP, and yields track nominal GDP, Lacy believes that the secular low for interest rates are not in hand: “In my view, we will not see the secular low in interest rates until the velocity of money reaches its secular trough, and that is not something that’s going to happen soon.”
Is the U.S. Government hiding a massive gold deposit in the Chocolate Mountains in California?  Well, according to a few top-notch conspiracy theorists, the U.S. Congress passed the Desert Wilderness Protection Act that has cordoned off this vast gold discovery from the public.  Unfortunately, we may never know if this mammoth gold deposit exists due to the clandestine nature of our government… or will we? Read More
The accompanying chart shows the losses of the median newsletter’s model portfolio in the 1987, 2000-02, and 2007-09 bear markets. For context, consider that the average bear market since 1900 has produced a 31% loss for the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +1.46% The median newsletter’s losses in those more recent three bear markets have been minus 23%, minus 28%, and minus 43%, respectively.

5. The millennial generation is getting off to a slow start due to the tremendous burden of $1Trillion+ in student loans. The impact of all this debt is to create an artificial drag on spending for the largest generation in U.S. history right when we need them to pick up the slack from the second largest (and far more wealthy) generation that is retiring in droves.
I decided that before I sat down to write the weekly recap and outlook for the gold and silver markets that I would go to a few of the great commentary sites such as Streetwise, 321Gold, Goldseek and Gold-Eagle and read what the other “experts” are saying about the precious metals markets before I attack the keyboard. Earlier in the week, I had been working on a Western Uranium Corp. story and was astounded how stress-free it was writing about an energy deal as opposed to a sound money deal. Read More
Silver is a precious metal that tends to move when no one expects a break to the upon or downside. Silver also can lag moves in markets that send signals that the price should respond or display head fake price action frustrating those with long or short positions. Gold moved to a low in mid-August when the dollar index traded to a high of 96.865. While silver also fell to a lower low for 2018 in mid-August, gold recovered, and silver followed only to fail once again and declined to a lower low for this year as gold remained above its nadir. Read More
A few weeks ago the DJI became over-bought, but not by as much as we normally expect to see at tops, while at the same time showing very bearish volume and Accumulation Index divergences. Immediately afterwards, we started seeing day-after-day weakness at the close following earlier intra-day strength. This first cluster of technical conditions set up the decline. Now the sell-off has been confirmed by (1) the Hourly OBV Line on the DJI making new lows ahead of the DJI itself , (2) by the increase in down-day volume above the previous day’s volume and (3) the steady 10 day streak of red “candle-sticks” on the daily SPY (SP-500) chart.
Not even a full minute into an interview with Alex Jones of Info Wars, Schiff says “it’s not a good thing” that the economy is going to crash and burn. “Unfortunately, that’s what Trump has inherited from Obama. But it’s not even really just Obama, it’s the federal reserve. It’s the monetary policy that has been passed like a baton from Clinton to Bush to Obama and now to Trump. And we’re near the end of the game and unfortunately, Trump’s gonna be the fall guy.  This thing is all gonna collapse while he’s president.” Read More
Market data provided by: Interactive Data Corporation. Commodity and historical index data provided by: Pinnacle Data Corporation. Unless otherwise indicated, all data is delayed by 15 minutes. The information provided by StockCharts.com, Inc. is not investment advice. Trading and investing in financial markets involves risk. You are responsible for your own investment decisions.
Swing Trading means scaling-out of over-bought  and overvalued assets, to enable buying back-in at lower prices. Exceptional Bear's strategy strives to  reduce average cost and risk, while continually compounding profit.  By anticipating, and positioning ahead of the herd, the market often comes to us. Swing Trading the right asset classes is the essence of managing a recession-proof and depression-proof portfolio. In the likely event of a Crash, this low-risk strategy will "make" a relatively few investors for a lifetime, while the vast majority of former investors will be broken for a lifetime. 
Municipal bonds are securities that are issued for the purpose of financing the infrastructure needs of the issuing municipality. The financed infrastructure needs vary greatly but can include schools, streets and highways, bridges, hospitals, public housing, sewer, water systems, power utilities, and various public projects. Traditionally, municipal bonds are issued and sold to bond holders through a complex network of financial and legal professionals.

As the bull market of the 1990s has turned into the bear market of the (early) 2000s, households have sharply reversed their more than decade-long trend of increasing their share of assets held in stocks. On balance, households have reallocated their assets away from stocks and toward tangible real assets, such as housing and other durable goods, as well as toward safe liquid financial assets, including cash, bank deposits, and money market mutual funds.
[A] new economics—the information theory of capitalism—is already at work. Concealed behind an elaborate apparatus, the theory drives the most powerful machines and networks of the era. Information theory treats human creations as transmissions through a channel—whether a wire or the world—in the face of noise, and gauges the outcomes by their surprise. Now it is ready to transform economics as it has already transformed the world.

orso - porcospino - tollerare - tricheco - orsa - portare - accettare - basti pensare che ... - basto - Buon viso a cattivo gioco - croce - dare i suoi frutti - dente avvelenato - esserne una testimonianza - farci il callo - farne le spese - fruttare - fruttificare - germinare - ghiottone - koala - legarsela al dito - orsacchiotto - orsetto - persecuzione - poggiare - prendere in considerazione - recare - reggere - risentire - sopportare - sostenere - tagliola - tenere a mente - testimoniare - troglodita
As this stock market correction progresses, it is natural to consider what levels may be effectivein halting the decline. We have recently taken a stab at a couple potential “support” levels in the U.S. market with excellent success, so far. Those posts include Monday’s The Mother Of All Support Levels on the broad Value Line Geometric Composite which held precisely, as well as a few Premium Posts at The Lyons Share covering key sectors, which also held on cue: Market Leaders At Must-Hold Levels and Finally Some Support To Bank On (if you’d like to see these posts, shoot us an email at [email protected] and we’d be happy to share). Read More
During the bear market a heavy debate ensued as to whose fault the falling market was. The political parties were heavily divided during this period.[10] For the most part there were three camps: ones that simply blamed the economy, others that wanted to pin the passing Bush Administration and others that wanted to push the blame on the newly arriving Obama Administration.
The “curse of the seventh year” refers to how, in recent decades, Octobers in years ending with seven (1987, 1997, and 2007) have been negative for markets. The pre-financial crisis bull market ended this month 10 years ago, while the Dow dropped more than 12% over October 1997. “Black Monday,” which still stands as the biggest single-day percentage decline on record, occurred in October 1987.
The equity market continues to suffer several months of uncertainty. Predominantly, it’s because of the possibility of a Sino-U.S. trade war in the near term. President Trump recently said that he was “ready to go” on hitting China with an additional $267 billion worth of tariffs. The Trump administration is already finalizing plans to impose tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese products. If these measures are met with retaliatory actions by China, it could lead to a full-on trade conflict, one that could adversely affect global economies and eventually squeeze corporate profits.
“This may seem old-fashioned, but there are skills to be learned when kids aren’t told what to do,” said Dr. Michael Yogman, a Harvard Medical School pediatrician who led the drafting of the call to arms. Whether it’s rough-and-tumble physical play, outdoor play or social or pretend play, kids derive important lessons from the chance to make things up as they go, he said. Read More
Trade wars are usually bad for all parties in the end but between the beginning and the end there can be some surprising developments. Human actions and delusions on the part of the public can produce strange results at times. All of our systems are based on trust. When that trust is lost, everything will come crashing down. Until then, things will go on. Read More
The rise of protectionism has serious implications for investors. We have become used to companies being able to break into new markets and the idea of “multinational corporations.” This may not be the case going forward. Investors will have to pay a lot more attention to where the companies they choose to invest in operate, and where their sales come from. In short, protectionism is on the rise and investors must prepare accordingly.
A bear market rally is when the stock market posts gains for days or even weeks. It can easily trick many investors into thinking the stock market trend has reversed, and a new bull market has begun. But nothing in nature or the stock market moves in a straight line. Even with a normal bear market, there will be days or months when the trend is upward. But until it moves up 20 percent or more, it is still in a bear market.
The economies of the world are at an inflection point.  Enough data points have now presented themselves to be able to see the outlines of a major shift in the markets of the world.  We are at a pay attention moment.  There comes a time when a successful investor must make some hard decisions to position himself to be able to take advantage of opportunities down the road.  The markets are telling us now is such a moment.

The central bank and investment banks have the power to crash the market right before the midterm elections to influence voting. I have seen this pattern repeated with both Ronald Reagan and George Bush, and we could be seeing it repeating once again for Donald Trump. The Fed and its dealer banks battle against Republican administrations, especially when they hold both houses of Congress, too.
Whether the market is in bear territory or not matters because declines tend to feed on themselves. It also suggests that investors have lost faith that the economy can keep producing the big gains it has turned in lately. If anyone still believes that President Donald Trump’s tax cuts will lead to a prolonged boost to corporate profits, it is hard to see evidence of that in the market. On top of that, when the psychology of investors is glum, bad news tends to send stocks downstream much faster than at times when stocks are trading at bull-market premiums.
Jan 15, 2018 KEY to the current TOPPING. Two attempts to break through resistance, finally breaking through on the 3rd attempt. In the long, Map of the Market by Magnitude above, notice the aqua circle at the top right, shows the short distance between the current Dow price, and the min upside required to breach the upper parallel, just as in 1929, before a CRASH can occur. Most likely first a false breakdown, as we had in BREXIT, should allow us to sell shorts and re-position at a more advantageous level before the upper parallel is breached. We are at that juncture NOW.
When a brushland, woodland, or forested area is not affected by fire for a long period, large quantities of flammable leaves, branches and other organic matter tend to accumulate on the forest floor and above in brush thickets. When a forest fire eventually does occur, the increased fuel creates a crown fire, which destroys all vegetation and affects surface soil chemistry. Frequent and small 'natural' ground fires prevent the accumulation of fuel and allow large, slow-growing vegetation (e.g. trees) to survive.
Nothing is going to be the same after this.  On Friday, the United States hit China with 34 billion dollars in tariffs, and China immediately responded with similar tariffs.  If it stopped there, this trade war between the United States and China would not be catastrophic for the global economy.  But it isn’t going to stop there.  Donald Trump is already talking about hitting China with an additional 500 billion dollars in tariffs, which would essentially cover pretty much everything that China exports to the U.S. in a typical year.  The Chinese have accused Trump of starting “the biggest trade war in economic history”, and they are pledging to fight for as long as it takes. Read More
There are two crucial factors why silver will increase more in value than gold during the next financial meltdown.  These factors are not well known by many precious metals analysts because they focus on antiquated information and knowledge.  While several individuals in the precious metals community forecast a much higher Gold-Silver ratio during the next financial crash, I see quite the opposite taking place.
As a savvy investor, you should be especially wary of inappropriate holdover patterns from the long Bull Market. Perhaps you sense that it may be time to take back control of your finances, in the same way legendary hedge fund manager, George Soros, came out of retirement to rescue his own fortune. Like him, you will be able to sleep soundly, knowing your living standards are secure. 
And while bear markets typically don't last long (most bear markets in the past have only lasted around 10-15 months), they can mean big losses. Bear markets are not the same as market corrections -- when the market drops 10% from a previous high -- but they can be started by a market crash (which happens when prices drop 10% in one or two days).  

A lot of people are shocked by how rapidly things are beginning to move.  The U.S. economy is slowing down at a pace that we haven’t seen since the last recession, and this is something that I have been tracking extensively.  But now the slowdown is so obvious that even some of the biggest names in the mainstream media are talking about it.  For example, just take a look at what Jim Cramer of CNBC is saying.  For a long time, he was touting how well the U.S. economy was doing, but now his tune has completely changed.  According to Cramer, a lot of corporate executives have “told me about how quickly things have cooled”, and he says that many of them are shocked because this “wasn’t supposed to occur so soon”… Read More
Department of Education 2017-2018 FAFSA changes provided the reinterpretation of the definition of homeless youth. For students older than 21 and younger than 24 who are unaccompanied and homeless or self-supporting, and at risk of being homeless qualify as independent students. This group can now self-qualify on the FAFSA (no need for Financial Aid Administrator approval).
Some nasty dark clouds are forming on the financial horizon as total world debt is increasing nearly three times as fast as total global wealth.   But, that’s okay because no one cares about the debt, only the assets matter nowadays.  You see, as long as debts are someone else’s problem, we can add as much debt as we like… or so the market believes.
If there doesn't seem to be many viable investments in uptrends, other options for more growth-oriented investors might include inverse Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).  The way these generally work is, when you invest in them and the market in question is declining, they actually make money.  Now, you'd rarely make +10% if the market is down -10% becuase there are fees and other complicated variables in these funds.

Caterpillar Inc. (CAT - Free Report) manufactures and sells construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines, and diesel-electric locomotives for construction, resource, and energy and transportation industries. The company has a Zacks Rank #2. In the last 60 days, 11 earnings estimates moved north, while none moved south for the current year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings rose 8.4% in the same period. The company’s expected earnings growth rate for the current quarter and year is 44.6% and 69.3%, respectively.
Jeffrey is a truly independent thinker who is never afraid to make bold, out-of-consensus calls. That’s why I know when he takes the stage at the SIC, he will provide insight into much more than the secular bond bull market. I’m really excited to welcome Jeffrey back to the SIC, and I hope you can be there with me to experience it, first-hand. If you would like to learn more about attending the SIC 2018, and about the other speakers who will be there, you can do so here.
For Smokey’s 40th anniversary in 1984, he was honored with a U.S. postage stamp that pictured a cub hanging onto a burned tree. It was illustrated by Rudy Wendelin.[50] The commercial for his 50th anniversary portrayed woodland animals about to have a surprise birthday party for Smokey, with a cake with candles. When Smokey comes blindfolded, he smells smoke, not realizing it is birthday candles for his birthday. He uses his shovel to destroy the cake. When he takes off his blindfold, he sees that it was a birthday cake for him and apologizes.[51] That same year, a poster of the bear with a cake full of extinguished candles was issued. It reads, 'Make Smokey's Birthday Wish Come True.'[52]
Needless to say, we have reached the mane. What drove the US economy for the past three decades was debt expansion----private and public--- at rates far faster than GDP growth. But that entailed a steady ratcheting up of the national leverage ratio until we hit what amounts to the top of the tiger's back---that is, Peak Debt at 3.5X national income. Read More
In the current issue of Grant’s we have in the headline of the front pages today “Xi Jinping’s Poisoned Chalice.” This is the Xi Jinping (whose name I think I am butchering in pronunciation) is of course the new president for life. And our sense is that one-term presidencies in China are better than two terms, and that better than either would be emigration. So we think that Xi Jinping is the president for life in the wrong country.
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